System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible.

Plant invasions--the role of mutualisms.

Many introduced plant species rely on mutualisms in their new habitats to overcome barriers to establishment and to become naturalized and, in some cases, invasive. Mutualisms involving animal-mediated pollination and seed dispersal, and symbioses between plant roots and microbiota often facilitate invasions. The spread of many alien plants, particularly woody ones, depends on pollinator mutualisms. Most alien plants are well served by generalist pollinators (insects and birds), and pollinator limitation does not appear to be a major barrier for the spread of introduced plants (special conditions relating to Ficus and orchids are described). Seeds of many of the most notorious plant invaders are dispersed by animals, mainly birds and mammals. Our review supports the view that tightly coevolved, plant-vertebrate seed dispersal systems are extremely rare. Vertebrate-dispersed plants are generally not limited reproductively by the lack of dispersers. Most mycorrhizal plants form associations with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi which, because of their low specificity, do not seem to play a major role in facilitating or hindering plant invasions (except possibly on remote islands such as the Galapagos which are poor in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi). The lack of symbionts has, however, been a major barrier for many ectomycorrhizal plants, notably for Pinus spp. in parts of the southern hemisphere. The roles of nitrogen-fixing associations between legumes and rhizobia and between actinorhizal plants and Frankia spp. in promoting or hindering invasions have been virtually ignored in the invasions literature. Symbionts required to induce nitrogen fixation in many plants are extremely widespread, but intentional introductions of symbionts have altered the invasibility of many, if not most, systems. Some of the world's worst invasive alien species only invaded after the introduction of symbionts. Mutualisms in the new environment sometimes re-unite the same species that form partnerships in the native range of the plant. Very often, however, different species are involved, emphasizing the diffuse nature of many (most) mutualisms. Mutualisms in new habitats usually duplicate functions or strategies that exist in the natural range of the plant. Occasionally, mutualisms forge totally novel combinations, with profound implications for the behaviour of the introduced plant in the new environment (examples are seed dispersal mutualisms involving wind-dispersed pines and cockatoos in Australia; and mycorrhizal associations involving plant roots and fungi). Many ecosystems are becoming more susceptible to invasion by introduced plants because: (a) they contain an increasing array of potential mutualistic partners (e.g. generalist frugivores and pollinators, mycorrhizal fungi with wide host ranges, rhizobia strains with infectivity across genera); and (b) conditions conductive for the establishment of various alien/alien synergisms are becoming more abundant. Incorporating perspectives on mutualisms in screening protocols will improve (but not perfect) our ability to predict whether a given plant species could invade a particular habitat.

Population dynamics, disturbance, and pattern evolution: identifying the fundamental scales of organization in a model ecosystem.

We used auto- and cross-correlation analysis and Ripley's K-function analysis to analyze spatiotemporal pattern evolution in a spatially explicit simulation model of a semiarid shrubland (Karoo, South Africa) and to determine the impact of small-scale disturbances on system dynamics. Without disturnities bance, local dynamics were driven by a pattern of cyclic succession, where 'colonizer' and 'successor' species alternately replaced each other. This results in a strong pattern of negative correlation in the temporal distribution of colonizer and successor species. As disturbance rates were increased, the relationship shifted from being negatively correlated in time to being positively correlated-the dynamics became decoupled from the ecologically driven cyclic succession and were increasingly influenced by abiotic factors (e.g., rainfall events). Further analysis of the spatial relationships among colonizer and successor species showed that, without disturbance, periods of attraction and repulsion between colonizer and successor species alternate cyclically at intermediate spatial scales. This was due to the spatial 'memory' embedded in the system through the process of cyclic succession. With the addition of disturbance, this pattern breaks down, although there is some indication of increasing ecological organization at broader spatial scales. We suggest that many of the insights that can be gained through spatially explicit models will only be obtained through a direct analysis of the spatial patterns produced.

Where, why, and to what extent have rangelands in the Karoo, South Africa, desertified.

We used simple questionnaire surveys to obtain rough categorical information on the status of semiarid and arid rangelands in the Karoo, South Africa. We sent questionnaires to extension officers of the Department of Agricultural Development, asking them to rank the condition of the rangeland in their extension districts (usually about 500 farms) on a three- or five-point scale. The questionnaire also sought information on the possible reasons for changes in the condition of the rangelands; vegetation types most at risk on mismanaged rangelands; and changes in the status of plants, birds, and mammals. Extension officers rated 35% of the semiarid rangelands in southwestern South Africa (the Karoo and southern Kalahari Desert) as being in poor condition. There was some congruency between the perceived condition of the agricultural extension district and the percentage that the stocking rate had decreased. Rangeland condition in more arid areas tends to be poor. Stocking rates have decreased disproportionately more in arid areas than in the more mesic areas of southwestern South Africa. Grasses were rated as the most threatened group of plants, and succulents the least threatened group. Overgrazing in the past was considered to be the most important cause of present-day rangeland condition, followed by present overstocking of rangelands. Antelope were considered more threatened by rangeland management than mammalian carnivores. Avian raptors and bustards, gamebirds, and tortoises were all perceived to be threatened by rangeland mismanagement.

South Africa's arid and semiarid rangelands: Why are they changing and can they be restored?

Since the mid-19th century settled livestock ranching has been the major form of land use in South Africa, occupying 68% of the land surface. Decreases in livestock densities and ranch numbers during the past century imply that carrying capacities for domestic herbivores are falling. Differences in carbon isotope signals with soil depth and abrupt shifts in dominant plant species across ranch boundaries reveal that southern African rangelands are changing. Case studies suggest ways to control altered grassland composition, bush encroachment in arid savanna, and dominance by toxic and halophytic shrubs in arid shrublands. But climatic and biological factors constrain rates of passive recovery, and guidelines for active restoration are poor and techniques costly. Moreover, conservation of remaining good rangeland is seldom enforced, and economic considerations usually outweight the land user's desire to sustain diversity and productivity.

Dispersal of Acacia cyclops by birds.

In South Africa seedlings of the exotic Acacia cyclops grow in clumps. The seedlings occur beneath tall elements, or in bush clumps, of the surrounding indigenous vegetation. The tall shrubs are used as perches by birds, and the pattern of seedling distribution is a result of dispersal of seeds by birds. Germination of A. cyclops seeds was enhanced as a result of passage through the gut of a bird, or by artificial treatments simulating actions taking place in the gut of a bird. We examine properties of the seed, and the funicle which is attractive to birds, in relation to aspects of the life history of A. cyclops and the species' success as an invasive plant in South Africa.