Effect of hyperspectral image-based initial conditions on improving short-term algal simulation of hydrodynamic and water quality models.

Hydrodynamic and water quality modeling have provided valuable simulation results that have enhanced the understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of algal blooms. Typical model simulations are performed with point-based observational data that are used to configure initial and boundary conditions, and for parameter calibration. However, the application of such conventional modeling approaches is limited due to cost, labor, and time constraints that preclude the retrieval of high-resolution spatial data. Thus, the present study applied fine-resolution algal data to configure the initial conditions of a hydrodynamic and water quality model and compared the accuracy of short-term algal simulations with the results simulated using conventional point-based initial conditions. The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) model was calibrated to simulate Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. Hyperspectral images were used to generate Chl-a maps based on a two-band ratio algorithm for configuring the initial condition of the EFDC model. The model simulation with hyperspectral-based initial conditions returned relatively accurate results for Chl-a, compared to the simulation based on point-based initial conditions. The simulations exhibited percent bias values of 9.93 and 14.23, respectively. Therefore, the results of this study demonstrate how hyperspectral-based initial conditions could improve the reliability of short-term algal bloom simulations in a hydrodynamic model.

Variable update strategy to improve water quality forecast accuracy in multivariate data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter.

Data assimilation in complex water quality modeling is inevitably multivariate because several water quality variables interact and correlate. In ensemble Kalman filter applications, determining which variables to include and the structure of the relationships among these variables is important to achieve accurate forecast results. In this study, various analysis methods with different combinations of variables and interaction structures were evaluated under two different simulation conditions: synthetic and real. In the former, a synthetic experimental setting was formulated to ensure that issues, including incorrect model error assumption problem, spurious correlation between variables, and observational data inconsistency, would not distort the analysis results. The latter did not have such considerations. Therefore, this process could demonstrate the undistorted effects of the different analysis methods on the assimilated outputs and how these effects might diminish in real applications. Under synthetic conditions, updating a single active variable was found to improve the accuracy of the other active variables, and updating multiple active variables in a multivariate manner mutually enhanced the accuracy of the variables if proper ensemble covariance and observation data consistency were ensured. The results of the real case indicated a weakened mutual enhancement effect, and the methods in which variable localization were applied yielded the best analysis results. However, the multivariate analysis methods produced more accurate forecasting results, indicating that these methods could be superior. Therefore, it is suggested that multivariate analysis methods be considered first for water quality modeling, and the application of variable localization should be considered if significant spurious correlations and data inconsistency are present.