Distribution of toxigenic cyanobacteria in Alpine lakes and rivers as revealed by molecular screening.

The increasing frequency of cyanobacteria blooms in waterbodies caused by ecosystem eutrophication could endanger human health. This risk can be mitigated by effective monitoring incorporating molecular methods. To date, most molecular studies on toxigenic cyanobacteria have been limited to microcystins (MCs), disregarding other cyanotoxins, to freshwater planktic habitats while ignoring benthic habitats, and to limited geographic areas (usually one or a few specific waterbodies). In this study, we used PCR-based methods including PCR product sequencing and chemical-analytical methods (LC-MS/MS) to screen many plankton (n = 123) and biofilm samples (n = 113) originating from 29 Alpine lakes and 18 rivers for their cyanotoxin production potential. Both mcyE (indicating MC synthesis) and anaC (indicating anatoxin (ATX) synthesis) gene fragments were able to qualitatively predict MC or ATX occurrence. The abundance of mcyE gene fragments was significantly related to MC concentrations in plankton samples (R2 = 0.61). mcyE gene fragments indicative of MC synthesis were most abundant in planktic samples (65 %) and were assigned to the genera Planktothrix and Microcystis. However, mcyE rarely occurred in biofilms of lakes and rivers, i.e., 4 % and 5 %, respectively, and were assigned to Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Nostoc. In contrast, anaC gene fragments occurred frequently in planktic samples (14 % assigned to Tychonema, Phormidium (Microcoleus), and Oscillatoria), but also in biofilms of lakes (49 %) and rivers (18 %) and were assigned to the genera Phormidium, Oscillatoria, and Nostocales. The cyrJ gene fragment indicating cylindrospermopsin synthesis occurred only once in plankton (assigned to Dolichospermum), while saxitoxin synthesis potential was not detected. For plankton samples, monomictic and less eutrophic conditions were positively related to mcyE/MC occurrence frequency, while oligomictic conditions were related to anaC/ATX frequency. The anaC/ATX frequency in biofilm was related to the lake habitats generally showing higher biodiversity as revealed from metabarcoding in a parallel study.

Lake browning counteracts cyanobacteria responses to nutrients: Evidence from phytoplankton dynamics in large enclosure experiments and comprehensive observational data.

Lakes worldwide are affected by multiple stressors, including climate change. This includes massive loading of both nutrients and humic substances to lakes during extreme weather events, which also may disrupt thermal stratification. Since multi-stressor effects vary widely in space and time, their combined ecological impacts remain difficult to predict. Therefore, we combined two consecutive large enclosure experiments with a comprehensive time-series and a broad-scale field survey to unravel the combined effects of storm-induced lake browning, nutrient enrichment and deep mixing on phytoplankton communities, focusing particularly on potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms. The experimental results revealed that browning counteracted the stimulating effect of nutrients on phytoplankton and caused a shift from phototrophic cyanobacteria and chlorophytes to mixotrophic cryptophytes. Light limitation by browning was identified as the likely mechanism underlying this response. Deep-mixing increased microcystin concentrations in clear nutrient-enriched enclosures, caused by upwelling of a metalimnetic Planktothrix rubescens population. Monitoring data from a 25-year time-series of a eutrophic lake and from 588 northern European lakes corroborate the experimental results: Browning suppresses cyanobacteria in terms of both biovolume and proportion of the total phytoplankton biovolume. Both the experimental and observational results indicated a lower total phosphorus threshold for cyanobacterial bloom development in clearwater lakes (10-20 µg P L-1 ) than in humic lakes (20-30 µg P L-1 ). This finding provides management guidance for lakes receiving more nutrients and humic substances due to more frequent extreme weather events.

DNA sequence and taxonomic gap analyses to quantify the coverage of aquatic cyanobacteria and eukaryotic microalgae in reference databases: Results of a survey in the Alpine region.

The taxonomic identification of organisms based on the amplification of specific genetic markers (metabarcoding) implicitly requires adequate discriminatory information and taxonomic coverage of environmental DNA sequences in taxonomic databases. These requirements were quantitatively examined by comparing the determination of cyanobacteria and microalgae obtained by metabarcoding and light microscopy. We used planktic and biofilm samples collected in 37 lakes and 22 rivers across the Alpine region. We focused on two of the most used and best represented genetic markers in the reference databases, namely the 16S rRNA and 18S rRNA genes. A sequence gap analysis using blastn showed that, in the identity range of 99-100%, approximately 30% (plankton) and 60% (biofilm) of the sequences did not find any close counterpart in the reference databases (NCBI GenBank). Similarly, a taxonomic gap analysis showed that approximately 50% of the cyanobacterial and eukaryotic microalgal species identified by light microscopy were not represented in the reference databases. In both cases, the magnitude of the gaps differed between the major taxonomic groups. Even considering the species determined under the microscope and represented in the reference databases, 22% and 26% were still not included in the results obtained by the blastn at percentage levels of identity ≥95% and ≥97%, respectively. The main causes were the absence of matching sequences due to amplification and/or sequencing failure and potential misidentification in the microscopy step. Our results quantitatively demonstrated that in metabarcoding the main obstacles in the classification of 16S rRNA and 18S rRNA sequences and interpretation of high-throughput sequencing biomonitoring data were due to the existence of important gaps in the taxonomic completeness of the reference databases and the short length of reads. The study focused on the Alpine region, but the extent of the gaps could be much greater in other less investigated geographic areas.

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems.

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.

The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios.

There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development ('Consensus', 'Techno' and 'Fragmented', which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.

Effects of multiple stressors on cyanobacteria abundance vary with lake type.

Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradictory evidence as to how they may interact. Here we used broad scale data from 494 lakes in central and northern Europe, to assess how cyanobacteria respond to nutrients (phosphorus), temperature and water retention time in different types of lakes. Eight lake types were examined based on factorial combinations of major factors that determine phytoplankton composition and sensitivity to nutrients: alkalinity (low and medium-high), colour (clear and humic) and mixing intensity (polymictic and stratified). In line with expectations, cyanobacteria increased with temperature and retention time in five of the eight lake types. Temperature effects were greatest in lake types situated at higher latitudes, suggesting that lakes currently not at risk could be affected by warming in the future. However, the sensitivity of cyanobacteria to temperature, retention time and phosphorus varied among lake types highlighting the complex responses of lakes to multiple stressors. For example, in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, humic lakes cyanobacteria biovolume was positively explained by retention time and a synergy between TP and temperature, while in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, clear lakes only retention time was identified as an explanatory variable. These results show that, although climate change will need to be accounted for when managing the risk of cyanobacteria in lakes, a "one-size fits-all" approach is not appropriate. When forecasting the response of cyanobacteria to future environmental change, including changes caused by climate and local management, it will be important to take this differential sensitivity of lakes into account.

Cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins: the influence of nitrogen versus phosphorus.

The importance of nitrogen (N) versus phosphorus (P) in explaining total cyanobacterial biovolume, the biovolume of specific cyanobacterial taxa, and the incidence of cyanotoxins was determined for 102 north German lakes, using methods to separate the effects of joint variation in N and P concentration from those of differential variation in N versus P. While the positive relationship between total cyanobacteria biovolume and P concentration disappeared at high P concentrations, cyanobacteria biovolume increased continually with N concentration, indicating potential N limitation in highly P enriched lakes. The biovolumes of all cyanobacterial taxa were higher in lakes with above average joint NP concentrations, although the relative biovolumes of some Nostocales were higher in less enriched lakes. Taxa were found to have diverse responses to differential N versus P concentration, and the differences between taxa were not consistent with the hypothesis that potentially N(2)-fixing Nostocales taxa would be favoured in low N relative to P conditions. In particular Aphanizomenon gracile and the subtropical invasive species Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii often reached their highest biovolumes in lakes with high nitrogen relative to phosphorus concentration. Concentrations of all cyanotoxin groups increased with increasing TP and TN, congruent with the biovolumes of their likely producers. Microcystin concentration was strongly correlated with the biovolume of Planktothrix agardhii but concentrations of anatoxin, cylindrospermopsin and paralytic shellfish poison were not strongly related to any individual taxa. Cyanobacteria should not be treated as a single group when considering the potential effects of changes in nutrient loading on phytoplankton community structure and neither should the N(2)-fixing Nostocales. This is of particular importance when considering the occurrence of cyanotoxins, as the two most abundant potentially toxin producing Nostocales in our study were found in lakes with high N relative to P enrichment.