Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast.

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26 and 14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we identify climatically favorable intervals when humans could have plausibly traversed the Cordilleran coastal corridor during the terminal Pleistocene. Model simulations suggest that northward coastal currents strengthened during the LGM and at times of enhanced freshwater input, making southward transit by boat more difficult. Repeated Cordilleran glacial-calving events would have further challenged coastal transit on land and at sea. Following these events, ice-free coastal areas opened and seasonal sea ice was present along the Alaskan margin until at least 15 ka. Given evidence for humans south of the ice sheets by 16 ka and possibly earlier, we posit that early people may have taken advantage of winter sea ice that connected islands and coastal refugia. Marine ice-edge habitats offer a rich food supply and traversing coastal sea ice could have mitigated the difficulty of traveling southward in watercraft or on land over glaciers. We identify 24.5 to 22 ka and 16.4 to 14.8 ka as environmentally favorable time periods for coastal migration, when climate conditions provided both winter sea ice and ice-free summer conditions that facilitated year-round marine resource diversity and multiple modes of mobility along the North Pacific coast.

Volcanic trigger of ocean deoxygenation during Cordilleran ice sheet retreat.

North Pacific deoxygenation events during the last deglaciation were sustained over millennia by high export productivity, but the triggering mechanisms and their links to deglacial warming remain uncertain1-3. Here we find that initial deoxygenation in the North Pacific immediately after the Cordilleran ice sheet (CIS) retreat4 was associated with increased volcanic ash in seafloor sediments. Timing of volcanic inputs relative to CIS retreat suggests that regional explosive volcanism was initiated by ice unloading5,6. We posit that iron fertilization by volcanic ash7-9 during CIS retreat fuelled ocean productivity in this otherwise iron-limited region, and tipped the marine system towards sustained deoxygenation. We also identify older deoxygenation events linked to CIS retreat over the past approximately 50,000 years (ref. 4). Our findings suggest that the apparent coupling between the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and solid-Earth systems occurs on relatively short timescales and can act as an important driver for ocean biogeochemical change.

Glacial isostatic adjustment directed incision of the Channeled Scabland by Ice Age megafloods.

During the last deglaciation, dozens of glacial outburst floods-among the largest known floods on Earth-scoured the Channeled Scabland landscape of eastern Washington. Over this same period, deformation of the Earth's crust in response to the growth and decay of ice sheets changed the topography by hundreds of meters. Here, we investigated whether glacial isostatic adjustment affected routing of the Missoula floods and incision of the Channeled Scabland from an impounded, glacial Lake Columbia. We used modern topography corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment as an input to flood models that solved the depth-averaged, shallow water equations and compared the results to erosion constraints. Results showed that floods could have traversed and eroded parts of two major tracts of the Channeled Scabland-Telford-Crab Creek and Cheney-Palouse-near 18 ka, whereas glacial isostatic adjustment limited flow into the Cheney-Palouse tract at 15.5 ka. Partitioning of flow between tracts was governed by tilting of the landscape, which affected the filling and overspill of glacial Lake Columbia directly upstream of the tracts. These results highlight the impact of glacial isostatic adjustment on megaflood routing and landscape evolution.

Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon, supporting a role for moisture and heat transport from low latitudes in North Pacific paleoclimate. Changes in carbon-14 age of intermediate waters are in phase with peaks in Cordilleran ice-rafted debris delivery, and both consistently precede ice discharge events from the Laurentide Ice Sheet, known as Heinrich events. This timing precludes an Atlantic trigger for Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat and instead implicates the Pacific as an early part of a cascade of dynamic climate events with global impact.

Sediment controls dynamic behavior of a Cordilleran Ice Stream at the Last Glacial Maximum.

The uncertain response of marine terminating outlet glaciers to climate change at time scales beyond short-term observation limits models of future sea level rise. At temperate tidewater margins, abundant subglacial meltwater forms morainal banks (marine shoals) or ice-contact deltas that reduce water depth, stabilizing grounding lines and slowing or reversing glacial retreat. Here we present a radiocarbon-dated record from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1421 that tracks the terminus of the largest Alaskan Cordilleran Ice Sheet outlet glacier during Last Glacial Maximum climate transitions. Sedimentation rates, ice-rafted debris, and microfossil and biogeochemical proxies, show repeated abrupt collapses and slow advances typical of the tidewater glacier cycle observed in modern systems. When global sea level rise exceeded the local rate of bank building, the cycle of readvances stopped leading to irreversible retreat. These results support theory that suggests sediment dynamics can control tidewater terminus position on an open shelf under temperate conditions delaying climate-driven retreat.

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change.

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.

Carbon isotopes characterize rapid changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide during the last deglaciation.

An understanding of the mechanisms that control CO2 change during glacial-interglacial cycles remains elusive. Here we help to constrain changing sources with a high-precision, high-resolution deglacial record of the stable isotopic composition of carbon in CO2(δ(13)C-CO2) in air extracted from ice samples from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. During the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 from 17.6 to 15.5 ka, these data demarcate a decrease in δ(13)C-CO2, likely due to a weakened oceanic biological pump. From 15.5 to 11.5 ka, the continued atmospheric CO2 rise of 40 ppm is associated with small changes in δ(13)C-CO2, consistent with a nearly equal contribution from a further weakening of the biological pump and rising ocean temperature. These two trends, related to marine sources, are punctuated at 16.3 and 12.9 ka with abrupt, century-scale perturbations in δ(13)C-CO2 that suggest rapid oxidation of organic land carbon or enhanced air-sea gas exchange in the Southern Ocean. Additional century-scale increases in atmospheric CO2 coincident with increases in atmospheric CH4 and Northern Hemisphere temperature at the onset of the Bølling (14.6-14.3 ka) and Holocene (11.6-11.4 ka) intervals are associated with small changes in δ(13)C-CO2, suggesting a combination of sources that included rising surface ocean temperature.

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias Mountains, Alaska.

Erosion, sediment production, and routing on a tectonically active continental margin reflect both tectonic and climatic processes; partitioning the relative importance of these processes remains controversial. Gulf of Alaska contains a preserved sedimentary record of the Yakutat Terrane collision with North America. Because tectonic convergence in the coastal St. Elias orogen has been roughly constant for 6 My, variations in its eroded sediments preserved in the offshore Surveyor Fan constrain a budget of tectonic material influx, erosion, and sediment output. Seismically imaged sediment volumes calibrated with chronologies derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program boreholes show that erosion accelerated in response to Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification (∼ 2.7 Ma) and that the 900-km-long Surveyor Channel inception appears to correlate with this event. However, tectonic influx exceeded integrated sediment efflux over the interval 2.8-1.2 Ma. Volumetric erosion accelerated following the onset of quasi-periodic (∼ 100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2-0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50-80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent increases in exhumation rates inferred onshore from exposure dates and mapped out-of-sequence fault patterns. The 1.2-My mass budget imbalance must relax back toward equilibrium in balance with tectonic influx over the timescale of orogenic wedge response (millions of years). The St. Elias Range provides a key example of how active orogenic systems respond to transient mass fluxes, and of the possible influence of climate-driven erosive processes that diverge from equilibrium on the million-year scale.

Climate change decouples oceanic primary and export productivity and organic carbon burial.

Understanding responses of oceanic primary productivity, carbon export, and burial to climate change is essential for model-based projection of biological feedbacks in a high-CO2 world. Here we compare estimates of productivity based on the composition of fossil diatom floras with organic carbon burial off Oregon in the Northeast Pacific across a large climatic transition at the last glacial termination. Although estimated primary productivity was highest during the Last Glacial Maximum, carbon burial was lowest, reflecting reduced preservation linked to low sedimentation rates. A diatom size index further points to a glacial decrease (and deglacial increase) in the fraction of fixed carbon that was exported, inferred to reflect expansion, and contraction, of subpolar ecosystems that today favor smaller plankton. Thus, in contrast to models that link remineralization of carbon to temperature, in the Northeast Pacific, we find dominant ecosystem and sea floor control such that intervals of warming climate had more efficient carbon export and higher carbon burial despite falling primary productivity.

Paleoclimate. Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming.

Some proposed mechanisms for transmission of major climate change events between the North Pacific and North Atlantic predict opposing patterns of variations; others suggest synchronization. Resolving this conflict has implications for regulation of poleward heat transport and global climate change. New multidecadal-resolution foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) reveal sudden shifts between intervals of synchroneity and asynchroneity with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ(18)O record over the past 18,000 years. Synchronization of these regions occurred 15,500 to 11,000 years ago, just prior to and throughout the most abrupt climate transitions of the last 20,000 years, suggesting that dynamic coupling of North Pacific and North Atlantic climates may lead to critical transitions in Earth's climate system.

A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years.

Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Holocene winter climate variability in mid-latitude western North America.

Water resources in western North America depend on winter precipitation, yet our knowledge of its sensitivity to climate change remains limited. Similarly, understanding the potential for future loss of winter snow pack requires a longer perspective on natural climate variability. Here we use stable isotopes from a speleothem in southwestern Oregon to reconstruct winter climate change for much of the past 13,000 years. We find that on millennial time scales there were abrupt transitions between warm-dry and cold-wet regimes. Temperature and precipitation changes on multi-decadal to century timescales are consistent with ocean-atmosphere interactions that arise from mechanisms similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Extreme cold-wet and warm-dry events that punctuated the Holocene appear to be sensitive to solar forcing, possibly through the influence of the equatorial Pacific on the winter storm tracks reaching the US Pacific Northwest region.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation.

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth's climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum.

Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.

Bias and uncertainty of delta13CO 2 isotopic mixing models.

Patterns in the isotopic signal (stable C isotope composition; delta(13)C) of respiration (delta(13)C(R)) have led to important gains in understanding the C metabolism of many systems. Contained within delta(13)C(R) is a record of the C source mineralized, the metabolic pathway of C and the environmental conditions during which respiration occurred. Because gas samples used for analysis of delta(13)C(R) contain a mixture of CO(2) from respiration and from the atmosphere, two-component mixing models are used to identify delta(13)C(R). Measurement of ecosystem delta(13)C(R), using canopy airspace gas samples, was one of the first applications of mixing models in ecosystem ecology, and thus recommendations and guidelines are based primarily on findings from these studies. However, as mixing models are applied to other experimental conditions these approaches may not be appropriate. For example, the range in [CO(2)] obtained in gas samples from canopy air is generally less than 100 micromol mol(-1), whereas in studies of respiration from soil, foliage or tree stems, the range can span as much as 10,000 micromol mol(-1) and greater. Does this larger range in [CO(2)] influence the precision and accuracy of delta(13)C(R) estimates derived from mixing models? Does the outcome from using different regression approaches and mixing models vary depending on the range of [CO(2)]? Our research addressed these questions using a simulation approach. We found that it is important to distinguish between large (>1,000 micromol mol(-1)) and small (<100 micromol mol(-1)) ranges of CO(2) when applying a mixing model (Keeling plot or Miller-Tans) and regression approach (ordinary least squares or geometric mean regression) combination to isotopic data. The combination of geometric mean regression and the Miller-Tans mixing model provided the most accurate and precise estimate of delta(13)C(R) when the range of CO(2) is >or=1,000 micromol mol(-1).

Using nocturnal cold air drainage flow to monitor ecosystem processes in complex terrain.

This paper presents initial investigations of a new approach to monitor ecosystem processes in complex terrain on large scales. Metabolic processes in mountainous ecosystems are poorly represented in current ecosystem monitoring campaigns because the methods used for monitoring metabolism at the ecosystem scale (e.g., eddy covariance) require flat study sites. Our goal was to investigate the potential for using nocturnal down-valley winds (cold air drainage) for monitoring ecosystem processes in mountainous terrain from two perspectives: measurements of the isotopic composition of ecosystem-respired CO2 (delta13C(ER)) and estimates of fluxes of CO2 transported in the drainage flow. To test if this approach is plausible, we monitored the wind patterns, CO2 concentrations, and the carbon isotopic composition of the air as it exited the base of a young (approximately 40 yr-old) and an old (>450 yr-old) steeply sided Douglas-fir watershed. Nocturnal cold air drainage within these watersheds was strong, deep, and occurred on more than 80% of summer nights. The depth of cold air drainage rapidly increased to tower height or greater when the net radiation at the top of the tower approached zero. The carbon isotope composition of CO2 in the drainage system holds promise as an indicator of variation in basin-scale physiological processes. Although there was little vertical variation in CO2 concentration at any point in time, we found that the range of CO2 concentration over a single evening was sufficient to estimate delta 13C(ER) from Keeling plot analyses. The seasonal variation in delta 13C(ER) followed expected trends: during the summer dry season delta 13C(ER) became less negative (more enriched in 13C), but once rain returned in the fall, delta 13C(ER) decreased. However, we found no correlation between recent weather (e.g., vapor pressure deficit) and delta 13C(ER) either concurrently or with up to a one-week lag. Preliminary estimates suggest that the nocturnal CO2 flux advecting past the 28-m tower is a rather small fraction (<20%) of the watershed-scale respiration. This study demonstrates that monitoring the isotopic composition and CO2 concentration of cold air drainage at the base of a watershed provides a new tool for quantifying ecosystem metabolism in mountainous ecosystems on the basin scale.

Eastern Pacific cooling and Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation.

Surface ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could hold the clue to whether millennial-scale global climate change during glacial times was initiated through tropical ocean-atmosphere feedbacks or by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. North Atlantic cold periods during Heinrich events and millennial-scale cold events (stadials) have been linked with climatic changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and South America, as well as the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems, but not with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Here we present a high-resolution record of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific derived from alkenone unsaturation measurements. Our data show a temperature drop of approximately 1 degrees C, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich event 1, and a smaller temperature drop of approximately 0.5 degrees C synchronous with the smaller reduction in the overturning circulation during the Younger Dryas event. Both cold events coincide with maxima in surface ocean productivity as inferred from 230Th-normalized carbon burial fluxes, suggesting increased upwelling at the time. From the concurrence of equatorial Pacific cooling with the two North Atlantic cold periods during deglaciation, we conclude that these millennial-scale climate changes were probably driven by a reorganization of the oceans' thermohaline circulation, although possibly amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction as suggested before.

Using stable isotope analysis to obtain dietary profiles from old hair: a case study from Plains Indians.

Stable isotope composition of human tissue reflects that of foods consumed, and can provide information about diet independent of artifactual remains. Here we refine and test this method by analyzing nitrogen (delta(15)N) and carbon (delta(13)C) isotope ratios in historic North American Plains Indians hair. Gas-source isotope-ratio mass spectrometry provides high-precision data for both delta(15)N and delta(13)C (+/-0.2 per thousand, 1 sigma) in single hair strands as short as 2 cm (100-150 mug). Because hair contains more carbon than nitrogen, if only delta(13)C data are needed, shorter strands (<1 cm) can be analyzed. This reduction in sample size opens new opportunities for analysis of small hair fragments found in archaeological excavations, as well as for analysis of seasonal variations in long hair strands. We find distinct isotope profiles (delta(15)N vs. delta(13)C) for two cultural groups, the Lower Brule reservation Sioux of 1892 and the reservation Blackfoot of 1892 and 1935. The resultant dietary profiles indicate a higher consumption of meat by the Blackfoot and a higher consumption of maize (or of animals that had fed on maize or other C(4) plants) by the Lower Brule. The two groups of Blackfoot yield similar isotopic profiles despite the passage of four decades, suggesting a strong role for cultural preference even as food sources change. Such stable isotope profiles can be used to link samples from the same cultural tradition based on their similar diets.

Rapid rise of sea level 19,000 years ago and its global implications.

Evidence from the Irish Sea basin supports the existence of an abrupt rise in sea level (meltwater pulse) at 19,000 years before the present (B.P.). Climate records indicate a large reduction in the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and attendant cooling of the North Atlantic at this time, indicating a source of the meltwater pulse from one or more Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Warming of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the Southern Hemisphere also began at 19,000 years B.P. These responses identify mechanisms responsible for the propagation of deglacial climate signals to the Southern Hemisphere and tropics while maintaining a cold climate in the Northern Hemisphere.