Variations of forage yield and forage-livestock balance in grasslands over the Tibetan Pla-teau, China.

An in-depth understanding of variations in grassland productivity and forage-livestock balance is the basis of ecological barrier construction and ecosystem conservation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using an ecohydrological process-based model VIP with remotely sensed vegetation index and leaf area index, we simulated the spatial and temporal variations of grassland productivity in the Tibetan Plateau in 2000-2018. The variations in the status of forage-livestock balance at the county level were analyzed, combining with agriculture and animal husbandry statistics in the same period. The results showed that the mean annual net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland in the Tibetan Plateau was 158.4 g C·m-2·a-1, which had increased significantly in the past 20 years, with a significant increase in 44.7% of the total area. Climate warming, increased precipitation, prolonged growing season, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration were main driving forces for grassland productivity. The mean theoretical livestock carrying capacity estimated based on pasture yield was 1.17 SU·hm-2, with a growth rate of 0.011 SU·hm-2. The situation of overgrazing in the Tibetan Plateau had generally improved since 2000. The proportion of counties with severe overgrazing had dropped to less than 20%. In areas with more severe overgrazing, animal husbandry's maintenance and development mainly relied on supplementation of crop straw. The results could provide a scientific basis for regional agricultural and animal husbandry structural adjustment and environmental protection.

[Evaluating the response of yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat and the adaptation by adjusting crop variety to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].

Based on the multi-model datasets of three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios from IPCC5, the response of yield and accumulative evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat to climate change in the future were assessed by VIP model. The results showed that if effects of CO2 enrichment were excluded, temperature rise would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for wheat under the three climate change scenarios, and the wheat yield and ET presented a decrease tendency. The positive effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment could offset most negative effect introduced by temperature rising, indicating that atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be the prime reason of the wheat yield rising in future. In 2050s, wheat yield would increase 14.8% (decrease 2.5% without CO2 fertilization) , and ET would decrease 2.1% under RCP4.5. By adoption of new crop variety with enhanced requirement on accumulative temperature, the wheat yield would increase more significantly with CO2 fertilization, but the water consumption would also increase. Therefore, cultivar breeding new irrigation techniques and agronomical management should be explored under the challenges of climate change in the future.

[Differences of evapotranspiration on forest, grassland and farmland].

By using the 1990-2003 meteorological data gathered from 12 ecosystem stations of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, the evapotranspiration rates of forest, grassland and farmland were estimated by soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model, with their change patterns under different climate conditions investigated. The results showed that the mean annual evapotranspiration from high to low ranked as tropical forestland, subtropical farmland, temperate forestland, temperate farmland and grassland. For farmland, rice field had the highest annual evapotranspiration, followed by wheat field, and maize field. There was an obvious monthly variation of evapotranspiration on forestland, grassland and farmland, but the inter-annual amplitude of the variation was steadier on forestland and grassland than on farmland.