Giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) in the UK: carbon storage potential and growth rates.

Giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum) are some of the UK's largest trees, despite only being introduced in the mid-nineteenth century. There are an estimated half a million giant sequoias and closely related coastal redwoods (Sequoia sempervirens) in the UK. Given the recent interest in planting more trees, partly due to their carbon sequestration potential and also their undoubted public appeal, an understanding of their growth capability is important. However, little is known about their growth and carbon uptake under UK conditions. Here, we focus on S. giganteum and use three-dimensional terrestrial laser scanning to perform detailed structural measurements of 97 individuals at three sites covering a range of different conditions, to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) and annual biomass accumulation rates. We show that UK-grown S. giganteum can sequester carbon at a rate of 85 kg yr-1, varying with climate, management and age. We develop new UK-specific allometric models for S. giganteum that fit the observed AGB with r 2 > 0.93 and bias < 2% and can be used to estimate S. giganteum biomass more generally. This study provides the first estimate of the growth and carbon sequestration of UK open-grown S. giganteum and provides a baseline for estimating their longer-term carbon sequestration capacity.

Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Evolution, distribution, and use.

Madagascar's biota is hyperdiverse and includes exceptional levels of endemicity. We review the current state of knowledge on Madagascar's past and current terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by compiling and presenting comprehensive data on species diversity, endemism, and rates of species description and human uses, in addition to presenting an updated and simplified map of vegetation types. We report a substantial increase of records and species new to science in recent years; however, the diversity and evolution of many groups remain practically unknown (e.g., fungi and most invertebrates). Digitization efforts are increasing the resolution of species richness patterns and we highlight the crucial role of field- and collections-based research for advancing biodiversity knowledge and identifying gaps in our understanding, particularly as species richness corresponds closely to collection effort. Phylogenetic diversity patterns mirror that of species richness and endemism in most of the analyzed groups. We highlight humid forests as centers of diversity and endemism because of their role as refugia and centers of recent and rapid radiations. However, the distinct endemism of other areas, such as the grassland-woodland mosaic of the Central Highlands and the spiny forest of the southwest, is also biologically important despite lower species richness. The documented uses of Malagasy biodiversity are manifold, with much potential for the uncovering of new useful traits for food, medicine, and climate mitigation. The data presented here showcase Madagascar as a unique "living laboratory" for our understanding of evolution and the complex interactions between people and nature. The gathering and analysis of biodiversity data must continue and accelerate if we are to fully understand and safeguard this unique subset of Earth's biodiversity.

Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities.

Madagascar's unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar's terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

A function-based typology for Earth's ecosystems.

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of 'living in harmony with nature'1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth's ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Colombia's bioregions as a source of useful plants.

The aim of our study was to assess the importance of different Colombian bioregions in terms of the supply of useful plant species and the quality of the available distribution data. We assembled a dataset of georeferenced collection localities of all vascular plants of Colombia available from global and local online databases. We then assembled a list of species, subspecies and varieties of Colombia's useful plants and retrieved all point locality information associated with these taxa. We overlaid both datasets with a map of Colombia's bioregions to retrieve all species and useful species distribution records in each bioregion. To assess the reliability of our estimates of species numbers, we identified information gaps, in geographic and environmental space, by estimating their completeness and coverage. Our results confirmed that Colombia's third largest bioregion, the Andean moist forest followed by the Amazon, Pacific, Llanos and Caribbean moist forests contained the largest numbers of useful plant species. Medicinal use was the most common useful attribute across all bioregions, followed by Materials, Environmental uses, and Human Food. In all bioregions, except for the Andean páramo, the proportion of well-surveyed 10×10 km grid cells (with ≥ 25 observation records of useful plants) was below 50% of the total number of surveyed cells. Poor survey coverage was observed in the three dry bioregions: Caribbean deserts and xeric shrublands, and Llanos and Caribbean dry forests. This suggests that additional primary data is needed. We document knowledge gaps that will hinder the incorporation of useful plants into Colombia's stated plans for a bioeconomy and their sustainable management. In particular, future research should focus on the generation of additional primary data on the distribution of useful plants in the Amazon and Llanos (Orinoquia) regions where both survey completeness and coverage appeared to be less adequate compared with other regions.

Arabica-like flavour in a heat-tolerant wild coffee species.

There are numerous factors to consider when developing climate-resilient coffee crops, including the ability to tolerate altered climatic conditions, meet agronomic and value chain criteria, and satisfy consumer preferences for flavour (aroma and taste). We evaluated the sensory characteristics and key environmental requirements for the enigmatic narrow-leaved coffee (Coffea stenophylla), a wild species from Upper West Africa1. We confirm historical reports of a superior flavour1-3 and uniquely, and remarkably, reveal a sensory profile analogous to high-quality Arabica coffee. We demonstrate that this species grows and crops under the same range of key climatic conditions as (sensorially inferior) robusta and Liberica coffee4-9 and at a mean annual temperature 6.2-6.8 °C higher than Arabica coffee, even under equivalent rainfall conditions. This species substantially broadens the climate envelope for high-quality coffee and could provide an important resource for the development of climate-resilient coffee crop plants.

The potential for income improvement and biodiversity conservation via specialty coffee in Ethiopia.

The specialty coffee sector represents opportunities for coffee farmers and other actors due to increased value within the supply chain, driven by elevated consumer purchase prices. We investigated these relationships up to the export stage, as well as the potential for specialty coffee to improve stakeholder participation in biodiversity conservation. Household data was collected from a sample of 272 coffee farmers belonging to five primary cooperatives, in the heavily forested area of Yayu, in the Illubabor administrative zone of Oromia regional state in south-western Ethiopia, for the 2017/2018 harvest season. Qualitative and quantitative data, gathered between 2015 and 2019, from focus group discussions, was used to supplement the survey and to explain the empirical findings. We show that the income from coffee (and thus household income) can be increased, in some cases substantially, via participation in the specialty coffee market. The unit price for coffee was much higher than standard market prices and those including certification premiums. Whilst quality is a key factor for specialty coffee, income increases via the specialty market are caveat bound. In particular, there is a critical requirement for efficient and effective cooperative management, and we provide suggestions for improvements. In the long-term, more focus is needed to increase the financial and human capacities of Ethiopian coffee cooperatives, to make them more effective partners in the specialty coffee value chain. The high conversion rates from harvested to clean exportable specialty coffee (8:1, or higher) is identified as a major constraint on profitability. We show that specialty coffee can bring about positive environmental benefits. Elevating coffee prices and farm profitability to bring household income levels to around or above the global poverty line may ensure the continuation of forest coffee production, and thus the retention of forest. The increases in income via specialty coffee production, reported in the study, were achieved without increasing land use or the application of environmentally costly inputs. Moreover, analysis of satellite data shows that a large proportion of the coffee farms surveyed retain a level of forest cover and quality approaching primary (undisturbed) forest, and that the coffee production area at Yayu has not experienced any significant deforestation (since 2000). We recommend that coffee premiums linked to environmental benefit should demonstrate clearly defined and appropriate metrics, as we have demonstrated here for forest (canopy) quality and coverage (area).

Ecología y diagnóstico de Enallodiplosis discordis(Diptera:Cecidomyiidae): un nuevo defoliador ferozcon repercusiones directas en la pérdida del bosqueseco de Prosopis y los medios de vida en Perú / Ecology and diagnosis of Enallodiplosis discordis (Diptera:Cecidomyiidae): A fierce new defoliator with direct repercussions for loss of Prosopis dry forest and livelihoods in Peru

Resumen Las regiones desérticas costeras del Pacífico de Perú y Chile albergan especies de Prosopis (Leguminosae: Mimosoideae), árboles bien adaptados a las condiciones del desierto y con funciones clave en los ecosistemas de bosques secos. Entre el 2001 y 2017, Prosopis en Perú ha sufrido una extensiva defoliación y muerte regresiva, con la consecuente deforestación y disminución de la producción de vainas de algarrobo. Aquí, se reporta una nueva especie de insecto plaga del bosque de Prosopis en Perú: Enallodiplosis discordis Gagné 1994 (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), una feroz especie defoliadora que contribuye a la mortalidad generalizada de Prosopis. Se proporciona un análisis de la taxonomía larvaria de E. discordis, ciclo de vida y la infestación ocurrida después de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) 1998/99. Su dispersión, distribución y ecología es examinada utilizando distintas líneas de evidencia. Durante casi dos décadas de trabajo de campo, se observó la muerte regresiva del bosque de Prosopis devastando los medios de vida rurales y los servicios de los ecosistemas en las regiones de las tierras bajas del sur (Ica), el centro y el norte de la costa peruana (Lambayeque, La Libertad, Piura). El colapso en la producción de vainas de Prosopis (algarroba, huaranga) y miel también fue registrada. Las notas complementarias proporcionan observaciones sobre: (i) el desarrollo de la plaga y el cambio de uso de la tierra y el clima, (ii) el control biológico y físico de E. discordis, (iii) la polilla Melipotis aff. indomita (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) como defoliador concurrente de Prosopis.

Abstract The coastal desert of Peru and Chile is home to Prosopis (Leguminosae: Mimosoideae) tree species that are exceptionally well-adapted to the hyperarid conditions and keystone in dry-forest ecosystems. From 2001 to 2018, Prosopis in Peru have suffered widespread defoliation and die-back, with consequent deforestation and collapse in pod production. This paper reports a new insect plague species of Prosopis forest in Peru: Enallodiplosis discordis Gagné 1994 (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) as a fiercely defoliating agent contributing to widespread Prosopis mortality. An analysis of E. discordis larval taxonomy, life cycle and plague infestation, following El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 1998/99 is provided. Using distinct lines of evidence, its spread, distribution, and ecology are examined. Over two decades of fieldwork, Prosopis forest die-back and loss was observed devastating rural livelihoods and ecosystem services across lowland regions of southern (Ica), central and northern coastal Peru (Lambayeque, La Libertad, Piura). The collapse in production of Prosopis pods (algarroba, huaranga) and honey was recorded. Supplementary notes provide observations of: (i) plague development, changing land-use and climate, (ii) biological and physical control of E. discordis, (iii) the moth Melipotis aff. indomita (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) as a concurrent defoliator of Prosopis.

Rapid Least Concern: towards automating Red List assessments.

BACKGROUND: The IUCN Red List of Threatened SpeciesTM (hereafter the Red List) is an important global resource for conservation that supports conservation planning, safeguarding critical habitat and monitoring biodiversity change (Rodrigues et al. 2006). However, a major shortcoming of the Red List is that most of the world's described species have not yet been assessed and published on the Red List (Bachman et al. 2019Eisenhauer et al. 2019). Conservation efforts can be better supported if the Red List is expanded to achieve greater coverage of mega-diverse groups of organisms such as plants, fungi and invertebrates. There is, therefore, an urgent need to speed up the Red List assessment and documentation workflow.One reason for this lack of species coverage is that a manual and relatively time-consuming procedure is usually employed to assess and document species. A recent update of Red List documentation standards (IUCN 2013) reduced the data requirements for publishing non-threatened or 'Least Concern' species on the Red List. The majority of the required fields for Least Concern plant species can be found in existing open-access data sources or can be easily calculated. There is an opportunity to consolidate these data and analyses into a simple application to fast-track the publication of Least Concern assessments for plants. There could be as many as 250,000 species of plants (60%) likely to be categorised as Least Concern (Bachman et al. 2019), for which automatically generated assessments could considerably reduce the outlay of time and valuable resources for Red Listing, allowing attention and resources to be dedicated to the assessment of those species most likely to be threatened. NEW INFORMATION: We present a web application, Rapid Least Concern, that addresses the challenge of accelerating the generation and documentation of Least Concern Red List assessments. Rapid Least Concern utilises open-source datasets, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Plants of the World Online (POWO) through a simple web interface. Initially, the application is intended for use on plants, but it could be extended to other groups, depending on the availability of equivalent datasets for these groups.Rapid Least Concern users can assess a single species or upload a list of species that are assessed in a batch operation. The batch operation can either utilise georeferenced occurrence data from GBIF or occurrence data provided by the user. The output includes a series of CSV files and a point map file that meet the minimum data requirements for a Least Concern Red List assessment (IUCN 2013). The CSV files are compliant with the IUCN Red List SIS Connect system that transfers the data files to the IUCN database and, pending quality control checks and review, publication on the Red List.We outline the knowledge gap this application aims to fill and describe how the application works. We demonstrate a use-case for Rapid Least Concern as part of an ongoing initiative to complete a global Red List assessment of all native species for the United Kingdom Overseas Territory of Bermuda.

A Preliminary Evaluation of The Karst Flora of Brazil Using Collections Data.

Karst is defined as landscapes that are underlain by soluble rock in which there is appreciable water movement arising from a combination of high rock solubility and well-developed secondary (fracture) porosity. Karsts occupy approximately 20% of the planet's dry ice-free land and are of great socioeconomic importance, as they supply water to up to 25% of the world's population and represent landscapes of cultural and touristic importance. In Southeast Asia karst is associated with high species-richness and endemism in plants and seen as priority areas for the conservation of biodiversity. There has been little research into the floras associated with karst in South America, most of which occurs in Brazil. We therefore sought to evaluate the importance of Brazilian karst with respect to its species-richness and endemism. We sought to do so using curated plant specimen data in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network (BIEN) dataset. We show that, except for Amazonia, the BIEN dataset is representative of the Brazilian flora with respect to the total number of species and overall patterns of species richness. We found that karst is under-sampled, as is the case for much of Brazil. We also found that whilst karst represent an important source of plant diversity for Brazil, including populations of approximately 1/3 of the Brazilian flora, it is not significantly more species-rich or richer in small-range and endemic species than surrounding landscapes. Similarly, whilst important for conservation, comprising populations of 26.5-37.4% of all Brazilian species evaluated as of conservation concern by International Union for Nature Conservation (IUCN), karst is no more so than the surrounding areas. Whilst experimental error, including map resolution and the precision and accuracy of point data may have under-estimated the species-richness of Brazilian karst, it likely represents an important biodiversity resource for Brazil and one that can play a valuable role in conservation. Our findings are in sharp contrast to those for Southeast Asia where karst represents a more important source of species-richness and endemism. We also show that although BIEN represents a comprehensive and curated source of point data, discrepancies in the application of names compared to current more comprehensive taxonomic backbones, can have profound impacts on estimates of species-richness, distribution ranges and estimates of endemism.

Elucidation of Hosts, Native Distribution, and Habitat of the Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) Using Herbaria and Other Museum Collections.

The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) is the most damaging insect pest of global coffee production. Despite its importance, our knowledge on the insect's natural habitat, range, and wild host species remains poorly known. Using archival sources (mainly herbaria but also other museum collections), we surveyed 18,667 predominantly wild-collected herbarium specimens mostly from Africa, Madagascar, and Asia for coffee berry borer occurrence. A total of 72 incidences were confirmed for presence of the coffee berry borer, with identifications assisted by micro-CT for SEM. Of the 72 positive infestations, all were from tropical African coffee (Coffea) species, of which 32 were from wild (non-cultivated) plants. Of the 32 wild occurrences, 30 were found in C. canephora (robusta coffee), 1 in C. liberica (Liberica coffee), and 1 in C. arabica (Arabica coffee). Our herbarium survey confirms literature and anecdotal reports that the coffee berry borer is indigenous to tropical Africa, and that coffee species, and particularly robusta coffee, are important hosts. We identify the wetter type of Guineo-Congolian forest as either the preferred or exclusive native habitat of the coffee berry borer. Other than coffee, we find no evidence of other naturally occurring hosts. Characters of infestation (e.g., hole position on coffee fruits) infers a certain degree of specificity between the coffee berry borer and its host.

High extinction risk for wild coffee species and implications for coffee sector sustainability.

Wild coffee species are critical for coffee crop development and, thus, for sustainability of global coffee production. Despite this fact, the extinction risk and conservation priority status of the world's coffee species are poorly known. Applying IUCN Red List of Threatened Species criteria to all (124) wild coffee species, we undertook a gap analysis for germplasm collections and protected areas and devised a crop wild relative (CWR) priority system. We found that at least 60% of all coffee species are threatened with extinction, 45% are not held in any germplasm collection, and 28% are not known to occur in any protected area. Existing conservation measures, including those for key coffee CWRs, are inadequate. We propose that wild coffee species are extinction sensitive, especially in an era of accelerated climatic change.

Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.

Refining area of occupancy to address the modifiable areal unit problem in ecology and conservation.

The modifiable areal unit problem is prevalent across many aspects of spatial analysis within ecology and conservation. The problem is particularly manifested when calculating metrics for extinction risk estimation, for example, area of occupancy (AOO). Although embedded in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria, AOO is often not used or is poorly applied. We evaluated new and existing methods for calculating AOO from occurrence records and devised a method for determining the minimum AOO with a uniform grid. We evaluated the grid cell shape, origin, and rotation with real-world and simulated data and reviewed the effects on AOO values and possible impacts for species already assessed on the IUCN Red List. The AOO varied by up to 80%, and a ratio of cells to points of 1:1.21 yielded the maximum variation in the number of occupied cells. These findings potentially impact 3% of existing species on the IUCN Red List and species not yet assessed. Our new method combined grid rotation and moving grid origin and gave fast, robust, and reproducible results and, in the majority of cases, achieved the minimum AOO. As well as determining minimum AOO, our method yielded a confidence interval that should be incorporated into existing tools that support species risk assessment. We recommend when recording AOO and other areal measurements that the methods; summary statistics across multiple iterations; angle and origin of the minimum grid; map projection; and datum be recorded, this will lead to more robust species risk assessments.

Gymnosperms on the EDGE.

Driven by limited resources and a sense of urgency, the prioritization of species for conservation has been a persistent concern in conservation science. Gymnosperms (comprising ginkgo, conifers, cycads, and gnetophytes) are one of the most threatened groups of living organisms, with 40% of the species at high risk of extinction, about twice as many as the most recent estimates for all plants (i.e. 21.4%). This high proportion of species facing extinction highlights the urgent action required to secure their future through an objective prioritization approach. The Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) method rapidly ranks species based on their evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risks they face. EDGE is applied to gymnosperms using a phylogenetic tree comprising DNA sequence data for 85% of gymnosperm species (923 out of 1090 species), to which the 167 missing species were added, and IUCN Red List assessments available for 92% of species. The effect of different extinction probability transformations and the handling of IUCN data deficient species on the resulting rankings is investigated. Although top entries in our ranking comprise species that were expected to score well (e.g. Wollemia nobilis, Ginkgo biloba), many were unexpected (e.g. Araucaria araucana). These results highlight the necessity of using approaches that integrate evolutionary information in conservation science.

Identifying species from the air: UAVs and the very high resolution challenge for plant conservation.

The Pacific Equatorial dry forest of Northern Peru is recognised for its unique endemic biodiversity. Although highly threatened the forest provides livelihoods and ecosystem services to local communities. As agro-industrial expansion and climatic variation transform the region, close ecosystem monitoring is essential for viable adaptation strategies. UAVs offer an affordable alternative to satellites in obtaining both colour and near infrared imagery to meet the specific requirements of spatial and temporal resolution of a monitoring system. Combining this with their capacity to produce three dimensional models of the environment provides an invaluable tool for species level monitoring. Here we demonstrate that object-based image analysis of very high resolution UAV images can identify and quantify keystone tree species and their health across wide heterogeneous landscapes. The analysis exposes the state of the vegetation and serves as a baseline for monitoring and adaptive implementation of community based conservation and restoration in the area.

Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change.

Coffee farming provides livelihoods for around 15 million farmers in Ethiopia and generates a quarter of the country's export earnings. Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall, there is an urgent need to understand the influence of climate change on coffee production. Using a modelling approach in combination with remote sensing, supported by rigorous ground-truthing, we project changes in suitability for coffee farming under various climate change scenarios, specifically by assessing the exposure of coffee farming to future climatic shifts. We show that 39-59% of the current growing area could experience climatic changes that are large enough to render them unsuitable for coffee farming, in the absence of significant interventions or major influencing factors. Conversely, relocation of coffee areas, in combination with forest conservation or re-establishment, could see at least a fourfold (>400%) increase in suitable coffee farming area. We identify key coffee-growing areas that are susceptible to climate change, as well as those that are climatically resilient.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands.

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Madagascar's grasses and grasslands: anthropogenic or natural?

Grasses, by their high productivity even under very low pCO2, their ability to survive repeated burning and to tolerate long dry seasons, have transformed the terrestrial biomes in the Neogene and Quaternary. The expansion of grasslands at the cost of biodiverse forest biomes in Madagascar is often postulated as a consequence of the Holocene settlement of the island by humans. However, we show that the Malagasy grass flora has many indications of being ancient with a long local evolutionary history, much predating the Holocene arrival of humans. First, the level of endemism in the Madagascar grass flora is well above the global average for large islands. Second, a survey of many of the more diverse areas indicates that there is a very high spatial and ecological turnover in the grass flora, indicating a high degree of niche specialization. We also find some evidence that there are both recently disturbed and natural stable grasslands: phylogenetic community assembly indicates that recently severely disturbed grasslands are phylogenetically clustered, whereas more undisturbed grasslands tend to be phylogenetically more evenly distributed. From this evidence, it is likely that grass communities existed in Madagascar long before human arrival and so were determined by climate, natural grazing and other natural factors. Humans introduced zebu cattle farming and increased fire frequency, and may have triggered an expansion of the grasslands. Grasses probably played the same role in the modification of the Malagasy environments as elsewhere in the tropics.