A machine learning approach to assess Sustainable Development Goals food performances: The Italian case.

In this study, we introduce an innovative application of clustering algorithms to assess and appraise Italy's alignment with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on those related to climate change and the agrifood market. Specifically, we examined SDG 02: Zero Hunger, SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production, and SDG 13: Climate Change, to evaluate Italy's performance in one of its most critical economic sectors. Beyond performance analysis, we administered a questionnaire to a cross-section of the Italian populace to gain deeper insights into their awareness of sustainability in everyday grocery shopping and their understanding of SDGs. Furthermore, we employed an unsupervised machine learning approach in our research to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of SDGs across European countries and position Italy relative to the others. Additionally, we conducted a detailed analysis of the responses to a newly designed questionnaire to gain a reasonable description of the population's perspective on the research topic. A general poor performance in the SDGs indicators emerged for Italy. However, from the questionnaire results, an overall significant interest in the sustainability of the acquired products from italian citizens.

A multi-modal machine learning approach to detect extreme rainfall events in Sicily.

In 2021 almost 300 mm of rain, nearly half of the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily Island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of the region. These phenomena are now very common in various countries all around the world: this is the reason why, detecting local extreme rainfall events is a crucial prerequisite for planning actions, able to reverse possibly intensified dramatic future scenarios. In this paper, the Affinity Propagation algorithm, a clustering algorithm grounded on machine learning, was applied, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, to detect extreme rainfall areas in Sicily. This was possible by using a high-frequency, large dataset we collected, ranging from 2009 to 2021 which we named RSE (the Rainfall Sicily Extreme dataset). Weather indicators were then been employed to validate the results, thus confirming the presence of recent anomalous rainfall events in eastern Sicily. We believe that easy-to-use and multi-modal data science techniques, such as the one proposed in this study, could give rise to significant improvements in policy-making for successfully contrasting climate change.

Awareness: An empirical model.

In this work, we face the time-honored problem of the contraposition/integration of analytical and intuitive knowledge, and the impact of such interconnection on the onset of awareness resulting from human decision-making processes. Borrowing the definitions of concepts like intuition, tacit knowledge, uncertainty, metacognition, and emotions from the philosophical, psychological, decision theory, and economic points of view, we propose a skeletonized mathematical model grounded on Markov Decision Processes of these multifaceted concepts. Behavioral patterns that emerged from the solutions of the model enabled us to understand some relevant properties of the interaction between explicit (mainly analytical) and implicit (mainly holistic) knowledge. The impact of the roles played by the same factors for both styles of reasoning and different stages of the decision process has been evaluated. We have found that awareness emerges as a dynamic process allowing the decision-maker to switch from habitual to optimal behavior, resulting from a feedback mechanism of self-observation. Furthermore, emotions are embedded in the model as inner factors, possibly fostering the onset of awareness.

Modeling pluralism and self-regulation explains the emergence of cooperation in networked societies.

Understanding the dynamics of cooperative behavior of individuals in complex societies represents a fundamental research question which puzzles scientists working in heterogeneous fields. Many studies have been developed using the unitary agent assumption, which embeds the idea that when making decisions, individuals share the same socio-cultural parameters. In this paper, we propose the ECHO-EGN model, based on Evolutionary Game Theory, which relaxes this strong assumption by considering the heterogeneity of three fundamental socio-cultural aspects ruling the behavior of groups of people: the propensity to be more cooperative with members of the same group (Endogamic cooperation), the propensity to cooperate with the public domain (Civicness) and the propensity to prefer connections with members of the same group (Homophily). The ECHO-EGN model is shown to have high performance in describing real world behavior of interacting individuals living in complex environments. Extensive numerical experiments allowing the comparison of real data and model simulations confirmed that the introduction of the above mechanisms enhances the realism in the modelling of cooperation dynamics. Additionally, theoretical findings allow us to conclude that endogamic cooperation may limit significantly the emergence of cooperation.

Self-regulation versus social influence for promoting cooperation on networks.

Cooperation is a relevant and controversial phenomenon in human societies. Indeed, although it is widely recognized essential for tackling social dilemmas, finding suitable policies for promoting cooperation can be arduous and expensive. More often, it is driven by pre-established schemas based on norms and punishments. To overcome this paradigm, we highlight the interplay between the influence of social interactions on networks and spontaneous self-regulating mechanisms on individuals behavior. We show that the presence of these mechanisms in a prisoner's dilemma game, may oppose the willingness of individuals to defect, thus allowing them to behave cooperatively, while interacting with others and taking conflicting decisions over time. These results are obtained by extending the Evolutionary Game Equations over Networks to account for self-regulating mechanisms. Specifically, we prove that players may partially or fully cooperate whether self-regulating mechanisms are sufficiently stronger than social pressure. The proposed model can explain unconditional cooperation (strong self-regulation) and unconditional defection (weak self-regulation). For intermediate self-regulation values, more complex behaviors are observed, such as mutual defection, recruiting (cooperate if others cooperate), exploitation of cooperators (defect if others cooperate) and altruism (cooperate if others defect). These phenomena result from dynamical transitions among different game structures, according to changes of system parameters and cooperation of neighboring players. Interestingly, we show that the topology of the network of connections among players is crucial when self-regulation, and the associated costs, are reasonably low. In particular, a population organized on a random network with a Scale-Free distribution of connections is more cooperative than on a network with an Erdös-Rényi distribution, and, in turn, with a regular one. These results highlight that social diversity, encoded within heterogeneous networks, is more effective for promoting cooperation.

The role of self-loops and link removal in evolutionary games on networks.

Recently, a new mathematical formulation of evolutionary game dynamics [1] has been introduced accounting for a finite number of players organized over a network, where the players are located at the nodes of a graph and edges represent connections between them. Internal steady states are particularly interesting in control and consensus problems, especially in a networked context where they are related to the coexistence of different strategies. In this paper we consider this model including self-loops. Existence of internal steady states is studied for different graph topologies in two-strategy games. Results on the effect of removing links from central players are also presented.

An Evolutionary Game Theory Model of Spontaneous Brain Functioning.

Our brain is a complex system of interconnected regions spontaneously organized into distinct networks. The integration of information between and within these networks is a continuous process that can be observed even when the brain is at rest, i.e. not engaged in any particular task. Moreover, such spontaneous dynamics show predictive value over individual cognitive profile and constitute a potential marker in neurological and psychiatric conditions, making its understanding of fundamental importance in modern neuroscience. Here we present a theoretical and mathematical model based on an extension of evolutionary game theory on networks (EGN), able to capture brain's interregional dynamics by balancing emulative and non-emulative attitudes among brain regions. This results in the net behavior of nodes composing resting-state networks identified using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), determining their moment-to-moment level of activation and inhibition as expressed by positive and negative shifts in BOLD fMRI signal. By spontaneously generating low-frequency oscillatory behaviors, the EGN model is able to mimic functional connectivity dynamics, approximate fMRI time series on the basis of initial subset of available data, as well as simulate the impact of network lesions and provide evidence of compensation mechanisms across networks. Results suggest evolutionary game theory on networks as a new potential framework for the understanding of human brain network dynamics.

Pain perception and EEG dynamics: does hypnotizability account for the efficacy of the suggestions of analgesia?

We report novel findings concerning the role of hypnotizability, suggestions of analgesia and the activity of the Behavioral Inhibition/Activation System (BIS/BAS) in the modulation of the subjective experience of pain and of the associated EEG dynamics. The EEG of high (highs) and low hypnotizable participants (lows) who completed the BIS/BAS questionnaire was recorded during basal conditions, tonic nociceptive stimulation without (PAIN) and with suggestions for analgesia (AN). Participants scored the perceived pain intensity at the end of PAIN and AN. The EEG midline dynamics was characterized by indices indicating the signal predictability (Determinism) and complexity (Entropy) obtained through the Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The reduced pain intensity reported by highs during AN was partially accounted for by the activity of the Behavioral Activation System. The decreased midline cortical Determinism observed during nociceptive stimulation in both groups independently of suggestions remained significantly reduced only in lows after controlling for the activity of the Behavioral Activation System. Finally, controlling for the activity of the Behavioral Inhibition System abolished stimulation, suggestions and hypnotizability-related differences. Results indicate that the BIS/BAS activity may be more important than hypnotizability itself in pain modulation and in the associated EEG dynamics.

Emergence of microbial networks as response to hostile environments.

The majority of microorganisms live in complex communities under varying conditions. One pivotal question in evolutionary biology is the emergence of cooperative traits and their sustainment in altered environments or in the presence of free-riders. Co-occurrence patterns in the spatial distribution of biofilms can help define species' identities, and systems biology tools are revealing networks of interacting microorganisms. However, networks of inter-dependencies involving micro-organisms in the planktonic phase may be just as important, with the added complexity that they are not bounded in space. An integrated approach linking imaging, "Omics" and modeling has the potential to enable new hypothesis and working models. In order to understand how cooperation can emerge and be maintained without abilities like memory or recognition we use evolutionary game theory as the natural framework to model cell-cell interactions arising from evolutive decisions. We consider a finite population distributed in a spatial domain (biofilm), and divided into two interacting classes with different traits. This interaction can be weighted by distance, and produces physical connections between two elements allowing them to exchange finite amounts of energy and matter. Available strategies to each individual of one class in the population are the propensities or "willingness" to connect any individual of the other class. Following evolutionary game theory, we propose a mathematical model which explains the patterns of connections which emerge when individuals are able to find connection strategies that asymptotically optimize their fitness. The process explains the formation of a network for efficiently exchanging energy and matter among individuals and thus ensuring their survival in hostile environments.

Cross-evidence for hypnotic susceptibility through nonlinear measures on EEGs of non-hypnotized subjects.

Assessment of hypnotic susceptibility is usually obtained through the application of psychological instruments. A satisfying classification obtained through quantitative measures is still missing, although it would be very useful for both diagnostic and clinical purposes. Aiming at investigating the relationship between the cortical brain activity and the hypnotic susceptibility level, we propose the combined use of two methodologies - Recurrence Quantification Analysis and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis - both inherited from nonlinear dynamics. Indicators obtained through the application of these techniques to EEG signals of individuals in their ordinary state of consciousness allowed us to obtain a clear discrimination between subjects with high and low susceptibility to hypnosis. Finally a neural network approach was used to perform classification analysis.

Hypnotic assessment based on the recurrence quantification analysis of EEG recorded in the ordinary state of consciousness.

The cerebral cortical correlates of the susceptibility to hypnosis in the ordinary states of consciousness have not been clarified. Aim of the study was to characterize the EEG dynamics of subjects with high (highs) and low hypnotisability (lows) through the non-linear method of Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). The EEG of 16 males--8 highs and 8 lows--was monitored for 1min without instructions other than keeping the eyes closed, being silent and avoiding movements (short resting), and during 15 min of simple relaxation, that is with the instruction to relax at their best. Highs and lows were compared on the RQA measures of Determinism (DET) and Entropy (ENT), which are related to the signal determinism and complexity. In the short resting condition discriminant analysis could classify highs and lows on the basis of DET and ENT values at temporo-parietal sites. Many differences in DET and all differences in ENT disappeared during simple relaxation, although DET still separated the two groups in the earliest 6min of relaxation at temporo-parietal sites. Our RQA based approach allows to develop computer-based methods of hypnotic assessment using short-lasting, single channel EEG recordings analyzed through standard mathematical methods.

Recurrence methods for the identification of morphogenetic patterns.

This paper addresses the problem of identifying the parameters involved in the formation of spatial patterns in nonlinear two dimensional systems. To this aim, we perform numerical experiments on a prototypical model generating morphogenetic Turing patterns, by changing both the spatial frequency and shape of the patterns. The features of the patterns and their relationship with the model parameters are characterized by means of the Generalized Recurrence Quantification measures. We show that the recurrence measures Determinism and Recurrence Entropy, as well as the distribution of the line lengths, allow for a full characterization of the patterns in terms of power law decay with respect to the parameters involved in the determination of their spatial frequency and shape. A comparison with the standard two dimensional Fourier transform is performed and the results show a better performance of the recurrence indicators in identifying a reliable connection with the spatial frequency of the patterns. Finally, in order to evaluate the robustness of the estimation of the power low decay, extensive simulations have been performed by adding different levels of noise to the patterns.

A non-linear deterministic model for regulation of diauxic lag on cellobiose by the pneumococcal multidomain transcriptional regulator CelR.

When grown on glucose and beta-glucosides, S. pneumoniae shows sequential use of sugars resulting in diauxic growth with variable time extent of the lag phase separating the biphasic growth curve. The pneumococcal beta-glucoside uptake locus containing the PTS transporter spr0276-82, is regulated by a multi-domain transcriptional regulator CelR. In this work, we address the contribution of phosphorylation of the phosphorylable cysteine in the EIIB domain of CelR to diauxic lag. Utilising site-directed mutagenesis of the phosphorylable amino acids in the EIIB and EIIA domains of CelR, we show that the EIIB domain activation is linked to the duration of the lag phase. Analysis of mutants for other PTS systems indicates that a second beta-glucoside PTS (spr0505), not able to support growth on cellobiose, is responsible for the lag during diauxic growth. A mathematical model of the process is devised together with a nonlinear identification procedure which provides model parameter estimates characterizing the single phases of bacterial growth. Parameter identification performed on data recorded in appropriate experiments on mutants allows for establishing a relationship between a specific model parameter, the EIIB domain and the time extent of the diauxic lag. The experimental results and the related insights provided by the mathematical model provide evidence that the conflicting activation of the CelR regulator is at the origin of the lag phase during sequential growth on glucose and cellobiose. This data is the first description of diauxic lag regulation involving two PTS and a multidomain regulator and could serve as a promising approach for studying the S. pneumoniae growth process on complex carbon sources as possibly encountered in the human host.

Identifying the dynamics of complex spatio-temporal systems by spatial recurrence properties.

Complex spatio-temporal systems may exhibit irregular behaviors when driven far from equilibrium. Reaction-diffusion systems often lead to the formation of patterns and spatio-temporal chaos. When a limited number of observations is available, the reconstruction and identification of complex dynamical regimes become challenging problems. A method based on spatial recurrence properties is proposed to deal with this problem: generalized recurrence plots and generalized recurrence quantification analysis are exploited to show that detection of structural changes in spatially distributed systems can be performed by setting up appropriate diagrams accounting for different spatial recurrences. The method has been tested on two prototypical systems forming complex patterns: the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation and the Schnakenberg system. This work allowed us to identify changes in the stability of spiral wave solutions in the former system and to analyze the Turing bifurcations in the latter.

Periodic solutions in modelling lagoon ecological interactions.

In this paper we present and analyze a nutrient-oxygen-phytoplankton-zooplankton mathematical model simulating lagoon ecological interactions. We obtain sufficient conditions, based on principal eigenvalue criteria -- for the existence of periodic solutions. A decoupled model which arises in the high nutrient regime is then considered in further detail for gathering some explicit conditions on parameters and averages of exogenous inputs needed for coexistence. An application to Italian coastal lagoons is finally obtained by parameter estimation and comparison with real data. A biological interpretation of the mathematical results is also presented.