Transformers enable accurate prediction of acute and chronic chemical toxicity in aquatic organisms.

Environmental hazard assessments are reliant on toxicity data that cover multiple organism groups. Generating experimental toxicity data is, however, resource-intensive and time-consuming. Computational methods are fast and cost-efficient alternatives, but the low accuracy and narrow applicability domains have made their adaptation slow. Here, we present a AI-based model for predicting chemical toxicity. The model uses transformers to capture toxicity-specific features directly from the chemical structures and deep neural networks to predict effect concentrations. The model showed high predictive performance for all tested organism groups-algae, aquatic invertebrates and fish-and has, in comparison to commonly used QSAR methods, a larger applicability domain and a considerably lower error. When the model was trained on data with multiple effect concentrations (EC50/EC10), the performance was further improved. We conclude that deep learning and transformers have the potential to markedly advance computational prediction of chemical toxicity.

Environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change, EMC4 : A new conceptual framework contextualizing climate and chemical risk assessment and management.

The environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change (EMC4 ) is a suggested conceptual framework for integrating climate change aspects into chemical risk management. The interaction of climate change and chemical risk brings together complex systems that are imperfectly understood by science. Making management decisions in this context is therefore difficult and often exacerbated by a lack of data. The consequences of poor decision-making can be significant for both environmental and human health. This article reflects on the ways in which existing chemicals management systems consider climate change and proposes the EMC4 conceptual framework, which is a tool for decision-makers operating at different spatial scales. Also presented are key questions raised by the tool to help the decision-maker identify chemical risks from climate change, management options, and, importantly, the different types of actors that are instrumental in managing that risk. Case studies showing decision-making at different spatial scales are also presented highlighting the conceptual framework's applicability to multiple scales. The United Nations Environment Programme's development of an intergovernmental Science Policy Panel on Chemicals and Waste has presented an opportunity to promote and generate research highlighting the impacts of chemicals and climate change interlinkages. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:433-453. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Cumulative impact assessment for ecosystem-based marine spatial planning.

Claims for ocean space are growing while marine ecosystems suffer from centuries of insufficient care. Human pressures from runoff, atmospheric emissions, marine pollution, fishing, shipping, military operations and other activities wear on habitats and populations. Ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP) has emerged worldwide as a strategic instrument for handling conflicting spatial claims among competing sectors and the environment. The twofold objective of both boosting the blue economy and protecting the environment is challenging in practice and marine planners need decision support. Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) was originally developed to provide an overview of the human imprint on the world's ocean ecosystems. We have now added a scenario component to the CIA model and used it within Swedish ecosystem-based MSP. This has allowed us to project environmental impacts for different planning alternatives throughout the planning process, strengthening the integration of environmental considerations into strategic decision-making. Every MSP decision may entail a local shift of environmental impact, causing positive or negative consequences for ecosystem components. The results from Swedish MSP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea illustrate that MSP certainly has the potential to lower net cumulative environmental impact, both locally and across sea basins, as long as environmental values are rated high and prevailing pressures derive from activities that are part of MSP. By synthesizing innumerous data into comprehensible decision support that informs marine planners of the likely environmental consequences of different options, CIA enables ecosystem-based MSP in practice.

Reframing human excreta management as part of food and farming systems.

Recognition of human excreta as a resource, rather than as waste, has led to the emergence of a range of new and innovative nutrient recovery solutions. Nevertheless, the management of human excreta remains largely rooted in current sanitation and wastewater management approaches, which often makes nutrient recovery an add-on to existing infrastructures. In this paper, we argue that framing human excreta management as a resource recovery challenge within waste management obscures important trade-offs. We explore the factors that would be brought to the fore by reframing human excreta management as part of food and farming systems. We find that such a reframing would accentuate (at least) six aspects of critical importance that are currently largely overlooked. Recognizing that the proposed framing may also have its limitations, we argue that it has the potential to better guide human excreta management towards long-term global food, soil, and nutrient security while reducing the risk of compromising other priorities related to human and environmental health.

Proxy Measures for Simplified Environmental Assessment of Manufactured Nanomaterials.

Proxy measures have been proposed as a low-data option for simplified assessment of environmental threat given the high complexity of the natural environment. We here review studies of environmental release, fate, toxicity, and risk to identify relevant proxy measures for manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs). In total, 18 potential proxy measures were identified and evaluated regarding their link to environmental risk, an aspect of relevance, and data availability, an aspect of practice. They include socio-technical measures (e.g., MNM release), particle-specific measures (e.g., particle size), partitioning coefficients (e.g., the octanol-water coefficient), and other fate-related measures (e.g., half-life) as well as various ecotoxicological measures (e.g., 50% effect concentration). For most identified proxy measures, the link to environmental risk was weak and data availability low. Two exceptions were global production volume and ecotoxicity, for which the links to environmental risk are strong and data availability relatively decent. As proof of concept, these were employed to assess seven MNMs: titanium dioxide, cerium dioxide, zinc oxide, silver, silicon dioxide, carbon nanotubes, and graphene. The results show that none of the MNMs have both high production volumes and high ecotoxicity. Several refinements of the assessment are possible, such as higher resolution regarding the MNMs assessed (e.g., different allotropes) and different metrics (e.g., particle number and surface area). The proof of concept shows the feasibility of using proxy measures for environmental assessment of MNMs, in particular for novel MNMs in early technological development, when data is particularly scarce.

Live and Let Die? Life Cycle Human Health Impacts from the Use of Tire Studs.

Studded tires are used in a number of countries during winter in order to prevent accidents. The use of tire studs is controversial and debated because of human health impacts from increased road particle emissions. The aims of this study are to assess whether the use of tire studs in a Scandinavian studded passenger car actually avoids or causes health impacts from a broader life cycle perspective, and to assess the distribution of these impacts over the life cycle. Life cycle assessment is applied and the disability-adjusted life years indicator is used to quantify the following five types of health impacts: (1) impacts saved in the use phase, (2) particle emissions in the use phase, (3) production system emissions, (4) occupational accidents in the production system, and (5) conflict casualties from revenues of cobalt mining. The results show that the health benefits in the use phase in general are outweighed by the negative impacts during the life cycle. The largest contribution to these negative human health impacts are from use phase particle emissions (67⁻77%) and occupational accidents during artisanal cobalt mining (8⁻18%). About 23⁻33% of the negative impacts occur outside Scandinavia, where the benefits occur. The results inform the current debate and highlight the need for research on alternatives to tire studs with a positive net health balance.

A tool for simulating collision probabilities of animals with marine renewable energy devices.

The mathematical problem of establishing a collision probability distribution is often not trivial. The shape and motion of the animal as well as of the the device must be evaluated in a four-dimensional space (3D motion over time). Earlier work on wind and tidal turbines was limited to a simplified two-dimensional representation, which cannot be applied to many new structures. We present a numerical algorithm to obtain such probability distributions using transient, three-dimensional numerical simulations. The method is demonstrated using a sub-surface tidal kite as an example. Necessary pre- and post-processing of the data created by the model is explained, numerical details and potential issues and limitations in the application of resulting probability distributions are highlighted.

Review of Environmental Assessment Case Studies Blending Elements of Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment.

Risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are two analytical tools used to support decision making in environmental management. This study reviewed 30 environmental assessment case studies that claimed an integration, combination, hybridization, or complementary use of RA and LCA. The focus of the analysis was on how the respective case studies evaluated emissions of chemical pollutants and pathogens. The analysis revealed three clusters of similar case studies. Yet, there seemed to be little consensus as to what should be referred to as RA and LCA, and when to speak of combination, integration, hybridization, or complementary use of RA and LCA. This paper provides clear recommendations toward a more stringent and consistent use of terminology. Blending elements of RA and LCA offers multifaceted opportunities to adapt a given environmental assessment case study to a specific decision making context, but also requires awareness of several implications and potential pitfalls, of which six are discussed in this paper. To facilitate a better understanding and more transparent communication of the nature of a given case study, this paper proposes a "design space" (i.e., identification framework) for environmental assessment case studies blending elements of RA and LCA. Thinking in terms of a common design space, we postulate, can increase clarity and transparency when communicating the design and results of a given assessment together with its potential strengths and weaknesses.

A probabilistic model for hydrokinetic turbine collision risks: exploring impacts on fish.

A variety of hydrokinetic turbines are currently under development for power generation in rivers, tidal straits and ocean currents. Because some of these turbines are large, with rapidly moving rotor blades, the risk of collision with aquatic animals has been brought to attention. The behavior and fate of animals that approach such large hydrokinetic turbines have not yet been monitored at any detail. In this paper, we conduct a synthesis of the current knowledge and understanding of hydrokinetic turbine collision risks. The outcome is a generic fault tree based probabilistic model suitable for estimating population-level ecological risks. New video-based data on fish behavior in strong currents are provided and models describing fish avoidance behaviors are presented. The findings indicate low risk for small-sized fish. However, at large turbines (≥5 m), bigger fish seem to have high probability of collision, mostly because rotor detection and avoidance is difficult in low visibility. Risks can therefore be substantial for vulnerable populations of large-sized fish, which thrive in strong currents. The suggested collision risk model can be applied to different turbine designs and at a variety of locations as basis for case-specific risk assessments. The structure of the model facilitates successive model validation, refinement and application to other organism groups such as marine mammals.

Exploring the planetary boundary for chemical pollution.

Rockström et al. (2009a, 2009b) have warned that humanity must reduce anthropogenic impacts defined by nine planetary boundaries if "unacceptable global change" is to be avoided. Chemical pollution was identified as one of those boundaries for which continued impacts could erode the resilience of ecosystems and humanity. The central concept of the planetary boundary (or boundaries) for chemical pollution (PBCP or PBCPs) is that the Earth has a finite assimilative capacity for chemical pollution, which includes persistent, as well as readily degradable chemicals released at local to regional scales, which in aggregate threaten ecosystem and human viability. The PBCP allows humanity to explicitly address the increasingly global aspects of chemical pollution throughout a chemical's life cycle and the need for a global response of internationally coordinated control measures. We submit that sufficient evidence shows stresses on ecosystem and human health at local to global scales, suggesting that conditions are transgressing the safe operating space delimited by a PBCP. As such, current local to global pollution control measures are insufficient. However, while the PBCP is an important conceptual step forward, at this point single or multiple PBCPs are challenging to operationalize due to the extremely large number of commercial chemicals or mixtures of chemicals that cause myriad adverse effects to innumerable species and ecosystems, and the complex linkages between emissions, environmental concentrations, exposures and adverse effects. As well, the normative nature of a PBCP presents challenges of negotiating pollution limits amongst societal groups with differing viewpoints. Thus, a combination of approaches is recommended as follows: develop indicators of chemical pollution, for both control and response variables, that will aid in quantifying a PBCP(s) and gauging progress towards reducing chemical pollution; develop new technologies and technical and social approaches to mitigate global chemical pollution that emphasize a preventative approach; coordinate pollution control and sustainability efforts; and facilitate implementation of multiple (and potentially decentralized) control efforts involving scientists, civil society, government, non-governmental organizations and international bodies.

Prospective life cycle assessment of graphene production by ultrasonication and chemical reduction.

One promising future bulk application of graphene is as composite additive. Therefore, we compare two production routes for in-solution graphene using a cradle-to-gate lifecycle assessment focusing on potential differences in energy use, blue water footprint, human toxicity, and ecotoxicity. The data used for the assessment is based on information in scientific papers and patents. Considering the prospective nature of this study, environmental impacts from background systems such as energy production were not included. The production routes are either based on ultrasonication or chemical reduction. The results show that the ultrasonication route has lower energy and water use, but higher human and ecotoxicity impacts, compared to the chemical reduction route. However, a sensitivity analysis showed that solvent recovery in the ultrasonication process gives lower impacts for all included impact categories. The sensitivity analysis also showed that solvent recovery is important to lower the blue water footprint of the chemical reduction route as well. The results demonstrate the possibility to conduct a life cycle assessment study based mainly on information from patents and scientific articles, enabling prospective life cycle assessment studies of products at early stages of technological development.

Hydrokinetic turbine effects on fish swimming behaviour.

Hydrokinetic turbines, targeting the kinetic energy of fast-flowing currents, are under development with some turbines already deployed at ocean sites around the world. It remains virtually unknown as to how these technologies affect fish, and rotor collisions have been postulated as a major concern. In this study the effects of a vertical axis hydrokinetic rotor with rotational speeds up to 70 rpm were tested on the swimming patterns of naturally occurring fish in a subtropical tidal channel. Fish movements were recorded with and without the rotor in place. Results showed that no fish collided with the rotor and only a few specimens passed through rotor blades. Overall, fish reduced their movements through the area when the rotor was present. This deterrent effect on fish increased with current speed. Fish that passed the rotor avoided the near-field, about 0.3 m from the rotor for benthic reef fish. Large predatory fish were particularly cautious of the rotor and never moved closer than 1.7 m in current speeds above 0.6 ms(-1). The effects of the rotor differed among taxa and feeding guilds and it is suggested that fish boldness and body shape influenced responses. In conclusion, the tested hydrokinetic turbine rotor proved non-hazardous to fish during the investigated conditions. However, the results indicate that arrays comprising multiple turbines may restrict fish movements, particularly for large species, with possible effects on habitat connectivity if migration routes are exploited. Arrays of the investigated turbine type and comparable systems should therefore be designed with gaps of several metres width to allow large fish to pass through. In combination with further research the insights from this study can be used for guiding the design of hydrokinetic turbine arrays where needed, so preventing ecological impacts.

Facing complexity through informed simplifications: a research agenda for aquatic exposure assessment of nanoparticles.

Exposure assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) is a challenging task mainly due to the novel properties of these new materials and the complexity caused by a wide range of particle characteristics, ENP-containing products and possible environmental interactions. We here present a research agenda in which we propose to face the complexity associated with ENP exposure assessment through informed and systematic simplifications. Exposure modelling is presented as a method for addressing complexity by identifying processes dominant for the fate of ENPs in the environment and enabling an iterative learning process by studying different emission and fate scenarios. Furthermore, the use of models is important to highlight most pressing research needs. For this reason, we also strongly encourage improved communication and collaboration between modellers and experimental scientists. Feedback between modellers and experimental scientists is crucial in order to understand the big picture of ENP exposure assessment and to establish common research strategies. Through joint research efforts and projects, the field of ENP exposure assessment can greatly improve and significantly contribute to a comprehensive and systematic risk assessment of ENPs.

Including carbon emissions from deforestation in the carbon footprint of Brazilian beef.

Effects of land use changes are starting to be included in estimates of life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, so-called carbon footprints (CFs), from food production. Their omission can lead to serious underestimates, particularly for meat. Here we estimate emissions from the conversion of forest to pasture in the Legal Amazon Region (LAR) of Brazil and present a model to distribute the emissions from deforestation over products and time subsequent to the land use change. Expansion of cattle ranching for beef production is a major cause of deforestation in the LAR. The carbon footprint of beef produced on newly deforested land is estimated at more than 700 kg CO(2)-equivalents per kg carcass weight if direct land use emissions are annualized over 20 years. This is orders of magnitude larger than the figure for beef production on established pasture on non-deforested land. While Brazilian beef exports have originated mainly from areas outside the LAR, i.e. from regions not subject to recent deforestation, we argue that increased production for export has been the key driver of the pasture expansion and deforestation in the LAR during the past decade and this should be reflected in the carbon footprint attributed to beef exports. We conclude that carbon footprint standards must include the more extended effects of land use changes to avoid giving misleading information to policy makers, retailers, and consumers.

Pesticide residues in rivers of a Brazilian Rain Forest Reserve: assessing potential concern for effects on aquatic life and human health.

Pesticide residues in water, sediment, and fish samples from rivers of a Brazilian Rain Forest Reserve were measured in November 1998, March 1999, and January 2000. Concentrations of the individual pesticides were compared to ecotoxicological benchmarks based on acute toxicity tests, and to regulatory guidelines to determine the potential concern for effects on aquatic life and human health. Pesticides and metabolites were detected at all 7 sites surveyed. Residues of a total of 27 pesticides or metabolites were found in water and/or sediment samples and fish have accumulated some of the most persistent of these residues. Measured concentrations in water and sediment indicated concern for preservation of aquatic fauna. Several pesticides in water were above levels for drinking water recommended by Brazilian and/or European Union authorities, indicating also a concern for human health.