Evolving relationship of Nares Strait ice arches on sea ice along the Strait and the North Water, the Arctic's most productive polynya.

Nares Strait, the waterway that separates northwest Greenland from Ellesmere Island, is a major pathway along which sea ice leaves the Arctic, including the planet's oldest and thickest sea ice that is experiencing an accelerated loss. Ice arches that develop during the winter at the Strait's northern or southern terminus can remain stable for months at a time during which the transport of sea ice ceases. The Arctic's most productive polynya, the North Water (NOW) or Pikialasorsuaq (West Greenlandic for 'great upwelling') forms at the Strait's southern end. There is evidence that a warming climate and the concomitant thinning of Arctic sea ice is weakening the arches and it has been proposed that this may impact the stability of NOW and the complex ecosystem that it sustains. Here we employ a categorization of recent winters with respect to the presence or absence of ice arches to explore their impact on sea ice along the Strait and over the NOW. We find that winters during which a southern ice arch is absent are associated with a reduced and thinner ice cover along the Strait with ice conditions over the NOW similar to that during winters with a southern arch. In winters, without a southern arch, there is also an acceleration of the winds along the Strait that contributes to the presence of reduced ice cover. Ocean color remote sensing data suggests that current levels of primary productivity over the NOW are independent of the presence or absence of an ice arch. The results suggest more research is needed to assess the stability of the NOW, with respect to reduced ice cover and primary productivity, in a future where ice arches cease to form along Nares Strait.

Tracking westerly wind directions over Europe since the middle Holocene.

The variability of the northern westerlies has been considered as one of the key elements for modern and past climate evolution. Their multiscale behavior and underlying control mechanisms, however, are incompletely understood, owing to the complex dynamics of Atlantic sea-level pressures. Here, we present a multi-annually resolved record of the westerly drift over the past 6,500 years from northern Italy. In combination with more than 20 other westerly-sensitive records, our results depict the non-stationary westerly-affected regions over mainland Europe on multi-decadal to multi-centennial time scales, showing that the direction of the westerlies has changed with respect to the migrations of the North Atlantic centers of action since the middle Holocene. Our findings suggest the crucial role of the migrations of the North Atlantic dipole in modulating the westerly-affected domain over Europe, possibly modulated by Atlantic Ocean variability.

Sea-ice retreat suggests re-organization of water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas.

Water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas, triggered by air-sea heat fluxes, is an integral component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These regions are undergoing rapid warming, associated with a retreat in ice cover. Here we present an analysis covering 1950-2020 of the spatiotemporal variability of the air-sea heat fluxes along the region's boundary currents, where water mass transformation impacts are large. We find there is an increase in the air-sea heat fluxes along these currents that is a function of the currents' orientation relative to the axis of sea-ice change suggesting enhanced water mass transformation is occurring. Previous work has shown a reduction in heat fluxes in the interior of the Nordic Seas. As a result, a reorganization seems to be underway in where water mass transformation occurs, that needs to be considered when ascertaining how the AMOC will respond to a warming climate.

Impact of model resolution on the representation of the wind field along Nares Strait.

Nares Strait is a major pathway along which multi-year sea ice leaves the Arctic, an ice class that has seen a recent dramatic reduction in extent. The winds that blow along the strait play an important role in modulating this ice export as well as in establishing the Arctic's largest and most productive polynya, the North Water, that forms at its southern terminus. However, its remote location has limited our knowledge of the winds along the strait. Here we use automatic weather station data from Hans Island, in the middle of the strait, to assess the ability of a set of atmospheric renalyses and analyses with a common lineage but with varying horizontal resolution to represent the variability in the wind field. We find that the flow is highly bidirectional, consistent with topographic channeling, with the highest wind speeds from the north and that a model resolution of ~ 9 km is required to capture the observed variability. The wind field at Hans Island is also found to be representative of variability in the flow along much of Nares Strait.

Himalaya Air Quality Impacts From the COVID-19 Lockdown Across the Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Starting in January 2020, the novel coronavirus, now known as acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease that it causes (COVID-19) has had significant impacts on human health, the environment, and the economy globally. The rapid lockdown that occurred as well as its well documented timing allows for an unprecedented opportunity to examine the impact of air pollution from densely populated regions has on adjacent and pristine environments. Here, we use in situ and satellite observations to show that there was a step function decrease in two key indicators of air quality, nitrogen dioxide and airborne particulates, in locations within the Indo-Gangetic Plan (IGP) as a result of the Spring 2020 lockdown. Based on anomaly patterns, we find a dipole response with a statistically significant reduction in air pollution along the western IGP and Himalaya and an increase in air pollution in the eastern IGP and Himalaya. We show that spatial variability in the reductions in economic activity across northern India and the adjoining countries of Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh contributed to this dipole as did a persistent atmospheric circulation anomaly across the region during the lockdown.

Anomalous collapses of Nares Strait ice arches leads to enhanced export of Arctic sea ice.

The ice arches that usually develop at the northern and southern ends of Nares Strait play an important role in modulating the export of Arctic Ocean multi-year sea ice. The Arctic Ocean is evolving towards an ice pack that is younger, thinner, and more mobile and the fate of its multi-year ice is becoming of increasing interest. Here, we use sea ice motion retrievals from Sentinel-1 imagery to report on the recent behavior of these ice arches and the associated ice fluxes. We show that the duration of arch formation has decreased over the past 20 years, while the ice area and volume fluxes along Nares Strait have both increased. These results suggest that a transition is underway towards a state where the formation of these arches will become atypical with a concomitant increase in the export of multi-year ice accelerating the transition towards a younger and thinner Arctic ice pack.

Representation of Spatial Variability of the Water Fluxes over the Congo Basin Region.

The Congo Basin, being one of the major basins in the tropics, is important to the global climate, yet its hydrology is perhaps the least understood. Although various reanalysis/analysis datasets have been used to improve our understanding of the basin's hydroclimate, they have been historically difficult to validate due to sparse in situ measurements. This study analyzes the impact of model resolution on the spatial variability of the Basin's hydroclimate using the Decorrelation Length Scale (DLCS) technique, as it is not subject to uniform model bias. The spatial variability within the precipitation (P), evaporation/evapotranspiration (E), and precipitation-minus-evaporation (P-E) fields were investigated across four spatial resolutions using reanalysis/analysis datasets from the ECMWF ranging from 9-75 km. Results show that the representation of P and P-E fields over the Basin and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean are sensitive to model resolution, as the spatial patterns of their DCLS results are resolution-dependent. However, the resolution-independent features are predominantly found in the E field. Furthermore, the P field is the dominant source of spatial variability of P-E, occurring over the land and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, while over the Southern Atlantic, P-E is mainly governed by the E field, with both showing weak spatial variability.

Was an Avalanche Swarm Responsible for the Devastation at Mount Everest Base Camp During the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake?

Moore, G.W.K., Paolo Cristofanelli, Paolo Bonasoni, Gian Pietro Verza, and J.L. Semple. Was an avalanche swarm responsible for the devastation at Mount Everest Base Camp during the April 2015 Nepal earthquake? High Alt Med Biol. 21:352-359, 2020. Introduction: An avalanche triggered by an earthquake on April 25, 2015, struck the Mount Everest Base Camp (EBC) resulting in 15 deaths and over 70 injuries. Despite the common occurrence of avalanches in this region, little is known about their intensity and the stability of the glaciers that ring the Mount Everest massif. Here we present unique observations from a nearby automatic weather station (AWS) in the minutes just after the earthquake. Methods: Several (AWS) were deployed along the Khumbu Valley in Nepal. The site at Kala Patthar (elevation 5,613 m asl) 3.5 km from EBC and 4 km from the col along the ridge between Pumori and Lingtren was active from 2010 to 2015 and recorded temperature, relative humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed and direction. Results: The sequence of wind direction anomalies indicated that multiple air blasts passed the AWS, each associated with a distinct avalanche source, suggesting that earthquake likely caused a number of distinct avalanches from different source regions along this ridge. Discussion: Results suggest that a swarm of avalanches collectively lead to the death and destruction at EBC, suggesting the need for improvement in our understanding of avalanches in the region as well as in our ability to model and forecast such events.

Influence of Atlantic and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Heat-Related Mortality in the United States.

The frequency and magnitude of extreme summer temperature events in the United States have increased in the past few decades. Long-term exposure to extreme summer temperatures can be detrimental to human health, due to potential risks of dehydration and thermoregulation strains on the cardiovascular system, which may often lead to heat-related mortality (HRM). The summer climate of the United States is influenced by variability in Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures, driven in part by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. However, the influence of AMO and ENSO on HRM in the United States has not been investigated. Here the longest time series of HRM spanning the past five decades is analyzed in relation with AMO and ENSO. We find that HRM doubled in the early-1990s, coinciding with the positive phase of the AMO. Furthermore, we note a positive association between the variability in HRM and summer temperatures across all regions of the United States, with the strongest association found over the Southern United States. Therefore, this research suggests that variability in Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures has both a nationwide and regional impact on HRM in the United States. Hence, by understanding variability in sea surface temperatures, the future burden of heat-attributed emergencies during extreme summer temperature events can be reduced not only for the United States, but also worldwide.

Influence of the Scandinavian climate pattern on the UK asthma mortality: a time series and geospatial study.

OBJECTIVE: It is well known that climate variability and trends have an impact on human morbidity and mortality, especially during the winter. However, there are only a handful of studies that have undertaken quantitative investigations into this impact. We evaluate the association between the UK winter asthma mortality data to a well-established feature of the climate system, the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern. METHODS: Time series analysis of monthly asthma mortality through the period of January 2001 to December 2015 was conducted, where the data were acquired from the UK's Office for National Statistics. The correlations between indices of important modes of climate variability impacting the UK such as the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as the SCA and the asthma mortality time series were computed. A grid point correlation analysis was also conducted with the asthma data with sea level pressure, surface wind and temperature data acquired from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. RESULTS: We find that sea level pressure and temperature fluctuations associated with the SCA explain ~20% (>95% CL) of variance in the UK asthma mortality through a period of 2001-2015. Furthermore, the highest winter peak in asthma mortality occurred in the year 2015, during which there were strong northwesterly winds over the UK that were the result of a sea level pressure pattern similar to that associated with the SCA. CONCLUSIONS: Our study emphasises the importance of incorporating large-scale geospatial analyses into future research of understanding diseases and its environmental impact on human health.

Ocean convection linked to the recent ice edge retreat along east Greenland.

Warm subtropical-origin Atlantic water flows northward across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge into the Nordic Seas, where it relinquishes heat to the atmosphere and gradually transforms into dense Atlantic-origin water. Returning southward along east Greenland, this water mass is situated beneath a layer of cold, fresh surface water and sea ice. Here we show, using measurements from autonomous ocean gliders, that the Atlantic-origin water was re-ventilated while transiting the western Iceland Sea during winter. This re-ventilation is a recent phenomenon made possible by the retreat of the ice edge toward Greenland. The fresh surface layer that characterises this region in summer is diverted onto the Greenland shelf by enhanced onshore Ekman transport induced by stronger northerly winds in fall and winter. Severe heat loss from the ocean offshore of the ice edge subsequently triggers convection, which further transforms the Atlantic-origin water. This re-ventilation is a counterintuitive occurrence in a warming climate, and highlights the difficulties inherent in predicting the behaviour of the complex coupled climate system.

Impact of Multidecadal Climate Variability on United Kingdom Rickets Rates.

Children who receive inadequate exposure to sunlight have reduced levels of vitamin D, resulting in rickets, a disease that is characterized by bone deformity, stunted growth, and long term pronounced disability. The United Kingdom rickets incidence rates declined from the early 1960's to mid-1990's, after which there was a dramatic increase. The reason for this change is not well understood. Here we show that an important low frequency mode of climate variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a period of ~60-80 years, has an impact on rickets incidence rates in the United Kingdom through changes in sea level pressure, cloud cover and sunshine duration. This research highlights the important role that multidecadal climate variability can play in human morbidity and suggests that future changes in the AMO may modulate rickets incidence rates throughout the United Kingdom.

Multicentennial record of Labrador Sea primary productivity and sea-ice variability archived in coralline algal barium.

Accelerated warming and melting of Arctic sea-ice has been associated with significant increases in phytoplankton productivity in recent years. Here, utilizing a multiproxy approach, we reconstruct an annually resolved record of Labrador Sea productivity related to sea-ice variability in Labrador, Canada that extends well into the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1646 AD). Barium-to-calcium ratios (Ba/Ca) and carbon isotopes (δ13C) measured in long-lived coralline algae demonstrate significant correlations to both observational and proxy records of sea-ice variability, and show persistent patterns of co-variability broadly consistent with the timing and phasing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results indicate reduced productivity in the Subarctic Northwest Atlantic associated with AMO cool phases during the LIA, followed by a step-wise increase from 1910 to present levels-unprecedented in the last 363 years. Increasing phytoplankton productivity is expected to fundamentally alter marine ecosystems as warming and freshening is projected to intensify over the coming century.

Amplification of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with the onset of the industrial-era warming.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures experience variability with a periodicity of 60-80 years that is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It has a profound imprint on the global climate system that results in a number of high value societal impacts. However the industrial period, i.e. the middle of the 19th century onwards, contains only two full cycles of the AMO making it difficult to fully characterize this oscillation and its impact on the climate system. As a result, there is a clear need to identify paleoclimate records extending into the pre-industrial period that contain an expression of the AMO. This is especially true for extratropical marine paleoclimate proxies where such expressions are currently unavailable. Here we present an annually resolved coralline algal time series from the northwest Atlantic Ocean that exhibits multidecadal variability extending back six centuries. The time series contains a statistically significant trend towards higher values, i.e. warmer conditions, beginning in the 19th century that coincided with an increase in the time series' multidecadal power. We argue that these changes are associated with a regional climate reorganization involving an amplification of the AMO that coincided with onset of the industrial-era warming.

The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events.

In late December 2015, widespread media interest revolved around forecasts that the surface air temperature at the North Pole would rise above freezing. Although there has been significant interest in the enhanced warming that is occurring at high northern latitudes, a process known as arctic amplification, remarkably little is known about these midwinter warming events at the pole including their frequency, duration and magnitude as well as the environmental conditions responsible for their occurrence. Here we use buoy and radiosonde data along with operational weather forecasts and atmospheric reanalyses to show that such events are associated with surface cyclones near the pole as well as a highly perturbed polar vortex. They occur once or twice each decade with the earliest identified event taking place in 1959. In addition, the warmest midwinter temperatures at the North Pole have been increasing at a rate that is twice as large as that for mean midwinter temperatures at the pole. It is argued that this enhanced trend is consistent with the loss of winter sea ice from the Nordic Seas that moves the reservoir of warm air over this region northwards making it easier for weather systems to transport this heat polewards.

Irminger Sea deep convection injects oxygen and anthropogenic carbon to the ocean interior.

Deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic ventilates the ocean for atmospheric gases through the formation of deep water masses. Variability in the intensity of deep convection is believed to have caused large variations in North Atlantic anthropogenic carbon storage over the past decades, but observations of the properties during active convection are missing. Here we document the origin, extent and chemical properties of the deepest winter mixed layers directly observed in the Irminger Sea. As a result of the deep convection in winter 2014-2015, driven by large oceanic heat loss, mid-depth oxygen concentrations were replenished and anthropogenic carbon storage rates almost tripled compared with Irminger Sea hydrographic section data in 1997 and 2003. Our observations provide unequivocal evidence that ocean ventilation and anthropogenic carbon uptake take place in the Irminger Sea and that their efficiency can be directly linked to atmospheric forcing.

Massive phytoplankton blooms under Arctic sea ice.

Phytoplankton blooms over Arctic Ocean continental shelves are thought to be restricted to waters free of sea ice. Here, we document a massive phytoplankton bloom beneath fully consolidated pack ice far from the ice edge in the Chukchi Sea, where light transmission has increased in recent decades because of thinning ice cover and proliferation of melt ponds. The bloom was characterized by high diatom biomass and rates of growth and primary production. Evidence suggests that under-ice phytoplankton blooms may be more widespread over nutrient-rich Arctic continental shelves and that satellite-based estimates of annual primary production in these waters may be underestimated by up to 10-fold.

Freezing and frostbite on mount everest: new insights into wind chill and freezing times at extreme altitude.

Cold injury is an acknowledged risk factor for those who venture into high altitude regions. There is, however, little quantitative information on this risk that can be used to implement mitigation strategies. Here we provide the first characterization of the risk of cold injury near the summit of Mount Everest. This is accomplished through the application of a meteorological dataset that has been demonstrated to characterize conditions in the region as inputs to new parameterizations of wind chill equivalent temperature (WCT) and facial frostbite time (FFT). Throughout the year, the typical WCT near the summit of Everest is always <-30°C, and the typical FFT is always less than 20 min. During the spring climbing season, WCTs of -50°C and FFTs of 5 min are typical; during severe storms, they approach -60°C and 1 min, respectively; values typically found during the winter. Further, we show that the summit barometric pressure is an excellent predictor of summit WCT and FFT. Our results provide the first quantitative characterization of the risk of cold injury on Mount Everest and also allow for the possibility of using barometric pressure, an easily observed parameter, in real time to characterize this risk and to implement mitigation strategies. The results also provide additional confirmation as to the extreme environment experienced by those attempting to summit Mount Everest and other high mountains.

The impact of global warming on Mount Everest.

Global warming impacts a wide range of human activities and ecosystems. One unanticipated consequence of the warming is an increase in barometric pressure throughout the troposphere. Mount Everest's extreme height and resulting low barometric pressure places humans near its summit in an extreme state of hypoxia. Here we quantify the degree with which this warming is increasing the barometric pressure near Everest's summit and argue that it is of such a magnitude as to make the mountain, over time, easier to climb.