Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Land cover, land use and malaria in the Amazon: a systematic literature review of studies using remotely sensed data.

The nine countries sharing the Amazon forest accounted for 89% of all malaria cases reported in the Americas in 2008. Remote sensing can help identify the environmental determinants of malaria transmission and their temporo-spatial evolution. Seventeen studies characterizing land cover or land use features, and relating them to malaria in the Amazon subregion, were identified. These were reviewed in order to improve the understanding of the land cover/use class roles in malaria transmission. The indicators affecting the transmission risk were summarized in terms of temporal components, landscape fragmentation and anthropic pressure. This review helps to define a framework for future studies aiming to characterize and monitor malaria.

Investigação de óbito à influenza pandêmica H1N1 2009 no município de Osasco, SP, junho e julho de 2009 / Investigation of a death related to pandemic influenza H1N1 in the city of Osasco, São Paulo, june, july, 2009

O novo subtipo viral influenza pandêmica H1N1 2009, resultante da recombinaçãogenética dos vírus suíno, aviário e humano, apresenta atualmente disseminação global. Apresentamos a investigação do primeiro óbito no ESP relacionado à infecção peloH1N1 2009, realizada como apoio do EPISUS-SP. Objetivos do estudo: investigar oprimeiro óbito confirmado no Estado e esclarecer seu diagnóstico; descrever os casos por tempo, lugar e pessoa; identificar o caso índice na cadeia de transmissão que tenha vínculo epidemiológico com os familiares; e investigar e caracterizar a possívelocorrência de transmissão sustentada de influenza pandêmica H1N1 2009 nomunicípio deOsasco, SP.O IAL notificou o resultado positivo para influenza pandêmica no sangue pós-morte da criança. Essa informação nos levou a considerar a hipótese de que o caso índice dos irmãos poderia ser a irmã. Foram identificados os contatos queocorreramaté sete dias antes do início dos sintomas nos irmãos: 1) contatos familiares e amigos próximos; 2) escola; 3) escola de inglês; e 4) transporte escolar. As atividades diárias dos irmãos identificaram que não houve deslocamento para fora de Osasco, noperíodo investigado. MCL foi o primeiro óbito na cidade associado à infecção porinfluenza pandêmica autóctone, sem vínculo epidemiológico com caso importado da doença. Foi confirmada a existência de um surto familiar de infecção por influenza pandêmica H1N1 2009 com nove casos confirmados; a provável fonte de infecção foiMCL. Foi confirmada a transmissão sustentada do vírus influenza pandêmica H1N1 2009 no País. Como recomendações deste estudo, foi proposta a alteração na definiçãode caso com inclusão dos casos autóctones; mudança nas normas e condutas de identificação, investigação e manejo de casos de síndrome gripal; treinamentos das equipes VE dosmunicípios para o enfrentamento de possíveis novas pandemias

Detection of a new yellow fever virus lineage within the South American genotype I in Brazil.

Nucleotide sequences of two regions of the genomes of 11 yellow fever virus (YFV) samples isolated from monkeys or humans with symptomatic yellow fever (YF) in Brazil in 2000, 2004, and 2008 were determined with the objective of establishing the genotypes and studying the genetic variation. Results of the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis showed that sequences generated from strains from 2004 and 2008 formed a new subclade within the clade 1 of the South American genotype I. The new subgroup is here designated as 1E. Sequences of YFV strains recovered in 2000 belong to the subclade 1D, which comprises previously characterized YFV strains from Brazil. Molecular dating analyses suggested that the new subclade 1E started diversifying from 1D about 1975 and that the most recent 2004-2008 isolates arose about 1985.