Enabling conditions for an equitable and sustainable blue economy.

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a 'blue economy'-socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity-not just resource availability-are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

Correction: A spatial method to calculate small-scale fisheries effort in data poor scenarios.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174064.].

A spatial method to calculate small-scale fisheries effort in data poor scenarios.

To gauge the collateral impacts of fishing we must know where fishing boats operate and how much they fish. Although small-scale fisheries land approximately the same amount of fish for human consumption as industrial fleets globally, methods of estimating their fishing effort are comparatively poor. We present an accessible, spatial method of calculating the effort of small-scale fisheries based on two simple measures that are available, or at least easily estimated, in even the most data-poor fisheries: the number of boats and the local coastal human population. We illustrate the method using a small-scale fisheries case study from the Gulf of California, Mexico, and show that our measure of Predicted Fishing Effort (PFE), measured as the number of boats operating in a given area per day adjusted by the number of people in local coastal populations, can accurately predict fisheries landings in the Gulf. Comparing our values of PFE to commercial fishery landings throughout the Gulf also indicates that the current number of small-scale fishing boats in the Gulf is approximately double what is required to land theoretical maximum fish biomass. Our method is fishery-type independent and can be used to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of growth in small-scale fisheries. This new method provides an important first step towards estimating the fishing effort of small-scale fleets globally.

Operationalizing the social-ecological systems framework to assess sustainability.

Environmental governance is more effective when the scales of ecological processes are well matched with the human institutions charged with managing human-environment interactions. The social-ecological systems (SESs) framework provides guidance on how to assess the social and ecological dimensions that contribute to sustainable resource use and management, but rarely if ever has been operationalized for multiple localities in a spatially explicit, quantitative manner. Here, we use the case of small-scale fisheries in Baja California Sur, Mexico, to identify distinct SES regions and test key aspects of coupled SESs theory. Regions that exhibit greater potential for social-ecological sustainability in one dimension do not necessarily exhibit it in others, highlighting the importance of integrative, coupled system analyses when implementing spatial planning and other ecosystem-based strategies.

Asymmetric connectivity of spawning aggregations of a commercially important marine fish using a multidisciplinary approach.

Understanding patterns of larval dispersal is key in determining whether no-take marine reserves are self-sustaining, what will be protected inside reserves and where the benefits of reserves will be observed. We followed a multidisciplinary approach that merged detailed descriptions of fishing zones and spawning time at 17 sites distributed in the Midriff Island region of the Gulf of California with a biophysical oceanographic model that simulated larval transport at Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) 14, 21 and 28 days for the most common and targeted predatory reef fish, (leopard grouper Mycteroperca rosacea). We tested the hypothesis that source-sink larval metapopulation dynamics describing the direction and frequency of larval dispersal according to an oceanographic model can help to explain empirical genetic data. We described modeled metapopulation dynamics using graph theory and employed empirical sequence data from a subset of 11 sites at two mitochondrial genes to verify the model predictions based on patterns of genetic diversity within sites and genetic structure between sites. We employed a population graph describing a network of genetic relationships among sites and contrasted it against modeled networks. While our results failed to explain genetic diversity within sites, they confirmed that ocean models summarized via graph and adjacency distances over modeled networks can explain seemingly chaotic patterns of genetic structure between sites. Empirical and modeled networks showed significant similarities in the clustering coefficients of each site and adjacency matrices between sites. Most of the connectivity patterns observed towards downstream sites (Sonora coast) were strictly asymmetric, while those between upstream sites (Baja and the Midriffs) were symmetric. The best-supported gene flow model and analyses of modularity of the modeled networks confirmed a pulse of larvae from the Baja Peninsula, across the Midriff Island region and towards the Sonoran coastline that acts like a larval sink, in agreement with the cyclonic gyre (anti-clockwise) present at the peak of spawning (May-June). Our approach provided a mechanistic explanation of the location of fishing zones: most of the largest areas where fishing takes place seem to be sustained simultaneously by high levels of local retention, contribution of larvae from upstream sites and oceanographic patterns that concentrate larval density from all over the region. The general asymmetry in marine connectivity observed highlights that benefits from reserves are biased towards particular directions, that no-take areas need to be located upstream of targeted fishing zones, and that some fishing localities might not directly benefit from avoiding fishing within reserves located adjacent to their communities. We discuss the implications of marine connectivity for the current network of marine protected areas and no-take zones, and identify ways of improving it.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish spawning aggregation and its fishery in the Gulf of California.

We engaged in cooperative research with fishers and stakeholders to characterize the fine-scale, spatio-temporal characteristics of spawning behavior in an aggregating marine fish (Cynoscion othonopterus: Sciaenidae) and coincident activities of its commercial fishery in the Upper Gulf of California. Approximately 1.5-1.8 million fish are harvested annually from spawning aggregations of C. othonopterus during 21-25 days of fishing and within an area of 1,149 km(2) of a biosphere reserve. Spawning and fishing are synchronized on a semi-lunar cycle, with peaks in both occurring 5 to 2 days before the new and full moon, and fishing intensity and catch are highest at the spawning grounds within a no-take reserve. Results of this study demonstrate the benefits of combining GPS data loggers, fisheries data, biological surveys, and cooperative research with fishers to produce spatio-temporally explicit information relevant to the science and management of fish spawning aggregations and the spatial planning of marine reserves.