Interpreting serological surveys using mixture models: the seroepidemiology of measles, mumps and rubella in England and Wales at the beginning of the 21st century.

A mixture modelling technique is applied to age-specific frequency distributions of quantitative results from serological surveys for measles, mumps and rubella using samples collected across the age range in England and Wales in 2000. In accordance with previous studies the analysis suggests that the antibody response to natural infection is stronger than that produced by vaccination, that vaccine-induced antibody levels wane with time and that levels of vaccine-induced antibody response vary for each virus infection being strongest for rubella and weakest for mumps. The current mumps epidemic in the United Kingdom is focused in cohorts born during 1982-1987 who were too old to have received routine MMR vaccination. In the cohort born in 1981-1985 the model estimates that 7.5% have no evidence of mumps specific IgG and 24.9% have the lowest level of detectable antibody. The similar proportions of mumps antibody in these categories among cohorts with opportunity for 1 or 2 doses of vaccine is a concern, as the degree to which these individuals are protected is unclear. Investigations into the efficacy of two doses of a mumps containing vaccine should be a priority during the current epidemic.

Borna disease virus and mental health: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Borna disease is an infectious neurological disease of horses, sheep and possibly other animals. A role for Borna disease virus (BDV) in human neurological and psychiatric illness has been proposed, but this hypothesis remains controversial. AIM: To investigate the epidemiology of BDV in UK farming communities. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We measured the seroprevalence of BDV in the PHLS Farm Cohort, a representative sample of those employed in agriculture in the UK, and investigated the clinical significance of our findings by comparing the prevalence of symptoms of neurotic psychopathology in those found seropositive and seronegative. RESULTS: Seroprevalence was 2.3% (95%CI 1.3- 4.0%) in 1994, 3.1% in 1996 (95%CI 1.9-5.0%) and 2.6% in 1999 (95%CI 1.5%-4.6%). Those living or working on livestock farms had higher seroprevalence (2.6%) than those on mixed (2.3%) or arable (1.6%) farms, but this was not statistically significant. Exposure to horses, sheep and cats did not increase risk of seropositivity. Seropositives were no more likely to report symptoms of psychiatric morbidity. DISCUSSION: UK farming populations appear to be exposed to Borna disease virus. However, we found no evidence that exposure to BDV was associated with morbidity in this healthy occupational cohort.

Seroprevalence of antibody to varicella zoster virus in England and Wales in children and young adults.

This is the first large-scale study to investigate the seroprevalence of varicella zoster (VZV) in the general population of England and Wales. The study focused on those aged 1-20 years, that age group in whom most infections occur. Prevalence rose rapidly with age, with 53% of children showing evidence of prior infection by the age of 5 years and most young adults having experienced infection. In addition to using a fixed cut-off recommended by the manufacturer, a mixture modelling technique was also used to define the proportion of the population seropositive in each age group. This was shown to be a more accurate approach to categorizing data from an epidemiological perspective.

Mental health of British farmers.

AIMS: To estimate the prevalence of neurotic symptoms in a sample of British farmers, to investigate whether farming characteristics are associated with psychiatric morbidity, and to test the hypothesis that British farmers have a higher prevalence of depression and thoughts of life not worth living than the British household population. METHODS: A total of 425 farmers from Hereford, Norwich, and Preston completed the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule (CIS-R) by computer between March and July 1999. The comparison cohort consisted of 9830 private householders aged 16-64 from the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys National Psychiatric Morbidity Surveys of Great Britain carried out in 1993 in which the CIS-R was administered. All analyses used the commands developed specifically for survey data available in Stata version 6.0. RESULTS: Taking a threshold of an overall score of 12 or more on the CIS-R, only 6% of farmers reported clinically relevant psychiatric morbidity. Psychiatric morbidity was not significantly associated with farm type or size in this study. Farmers reported a lower prevalence of psychiatric morbidity than the general population but were more likely to report thinking that life is not worth living, particularly after the low prevalence of psychiatric morbidity had been taken into account (odds ratio 2.56, 95% CI 1.39 to 4.69). When restricting the comparison to only rural or semirural householders, this increased risk was even more pronounced (odds ratio 3.26, 95% CI 1.51 to 7.02). CONCLUSIONS: The relation between depression and suicidal ideation seems to be quite different among farmers and the general population and warrants further investigation. We have shown it is possible to measure mental health systematically in a sample of British farmers. This study should be repeated in the aftermath of the foot and mouth crisis.

The prevalence of hepatitis C in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the background population prevalence of hepatitis C in England and Wales, observe the prevalence over time and assess the extent of infection outside of known risk groups. METHODS: Sera from residual specimens from adult patients submitted to laboratories in England and Wales were tested for anti-HCV. Testing was carried out using a cost-effective pooling strategy. RESULTS: Although the prevalence of anti-HCV was highest in 1986 (1.07%), in the multivariable analysis, prevalence did not vary significantly between the 3 periods 1986, 1991 and 1996 (P=0.14). The prevalence of infection was higher in males than in females (P=0.0013). An age-period-cohort analysis revealed a cohort effect due to a lower HCV prevalence in the most recent birth cohorts, that is, those born between the calendar years 1971-1975 and 1976-1980. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of HCV infections in England and Wales were probably acquired before 1986. Infections in younger males identified in 1996 may signify more recent acquisition by injecting drug use.

The burden of Helicobacter pylori infection in England and Wales.

The prevalence of active infection with Helicobacter pylori in the general population of England and Wales was estimated using high reactivity for specific IgG in serum ELISA as a marker. A total of 10,118 anonymized residues of serum samples collected in 1986 and 1996 from persons aged 1-84 years were used. Estimated prevalence of active infection varied by region and was highest in London. Prevalence was related to decade of birth and increased from 4-3% in those born during the 1980s to 30% in those born before 1940. An estimated total of 7.5 million people living in England and Wales have an active infection and analysis by decade of birth showed no significant difference between samples collected in 1986 and 1996. These data suggest H. pylori infection is becoming less common, is acquired at an early age and is unlikely to be resolved unless suitable antimicrobial treatment is sought.

The changing epidemiological pattern of hepatitis A in England and Wales.

Sera from an age-stratified sample of 4188 individuals, submitted for diagnostic purposes to 15 public health laboratories in England and Wales in 1996, were tested for hepatitis A antibody. The serological profiles were consistent with declining incidence in the past. This hypothesis was tested by comparing the serological profiles of Ashford, Leeds and Preston public health laboratories with those from sera collected during a previous study in the same laboratories in 1986/7. A comparison of equivalent 10 year birth cohorts revealed that significant hepatitis A seroconversion had only continued in Ashford. However, it is probable that most seroconversions are due to vaccination and immigration rather than continuing viral transmission. Further population-based surveys collecting more in-depth social and demographic data are needed to confirm the main factors influencing hepatitis A seroprevalence and to explain the regional differences.

Guidelines on the management of, and exposure to, rash illness in pregnancy (including consideration of relevant antibody screening programmes in pregnancy).

These guidelines, produced by the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) aim to help decision making in the investigation and management of pregnant women who have 'a rash compatible with a systemic viral illness', or who have contact with a person with such an illness. They address particularly rubella, parvovirus B19, and varicella-zoster virus infection, but consider other infective causes of rash illness in the United Kingdom. The guidelines give the magnitude and degrees of risk to the fetus in terms of outcomes for the gestation at which maternal infection occurs. Recent changes in epidemiology and management lead to the following specific advice, which both updates and re-affirms established guidelines. All pregnant women with a non-vesicular rash illness should be investigated simultaneously for rubella and parvovirus B19 infection. All pregnant women who have had significant contact with a person suffering from a non-vesicular illness should be investigated for asymptomatic parvovirus B19 infection, and for asymptomatic rubella infection unless there is satisfactory evidence of past rubella infection (vaccine or natural infection). A significant contact is defined as being in the same room for over 15 minutes, or face-to-face contact. Specific investigation to detect asymptomatic rubella reinfection is not advised. It is essential to confirm by adequate laboratory investigation all cases of possible rubella and parvovirus B19 infection in pregnancy. Management of proven rubella in pregnancy should be based on established risks of adverse outcome. Women with proven parvovirus B19 infection in the first 20 weeks of pregnancy should be followed by regular, ultrasound scanning, and referred to Regional Units of Fetal Medicine if hydrops fetalis is detected. Parvovirus B19 antibody screening in pregnancy is not advised, and consensus has been reached on the procedures to be followed for rubella antibody screening, including the concentration of antibody that reflects past infection. Oral antiviral treatment (aciclovir) is advised with informed consent for pregnant women who present within 24 hours of onset of varicella. Referral to hospital and intravenous antiviral treatment is indicated for pregnant women with complications and/or risk factors, or whose illness continues for six days or more. Pregnant women exposed to varicella or herpes zoster can be reassured as to their protection if they themselves have a history of varicella or herpes zoster. If this history is uncertain or not known, susceptibility should be tested, and varicellazoster immunoglobulin (VZIG) offered to those found susceptible if within 10 days of first exposure. Infants whose mothers develop varicella 7 days before to 7 days after delivery should be given VZIG, and aciclovir if onset was 4 days before to 2 days after delivery.

Immunogenicity of second dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine and implications for serosurveillance.

Measles and mumps, but not rubella, outbreaks have been reported amongst populations highly vaccinated with a single dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. Repeated experience has shown that a two-dose regime of measles vaccine is required to eliminate measles. This paper reports the effect of the first and second MMR doses on specific antibody levels in a variety of populations.2-4 years after receiving a first dose of MMR vaccine at age 12-18 months, it was found that a large proportion of pre-school children had measles (19.5%) and mumps (23.4%) IgG antibody below the putative level of protection. Only a small proportion (4.6%) had rubella antibody below the putative protective level. A total of 41% had negative or equivocal levels to one or more antigens. The proportion measles antibody negative (but not rubella or mumps) was significantly higher in children vaccinated at 12 months of age than at 13-17 months. There was no evidence for correlation of seropositivity to each antigen, other than that produced by a small excess of children (1%) negative to all three antigens. After a second dose of MMR, the proportion negative to one or more antigens dropped to <4%. Examination of national serosurveillance data, found that following an MR vaccine campaign in cohorts that previously received MMR, both measles and rubella antibody levels were initially boosted but declined to pre-vaccination levels within 3 years. Our study supports the policy of administering a second dose of MMR vaccine to all children. However, continued monitoring of long-term population protection will be required and this study suggests that in highly vaccinated populations, total measles (and rubella) IgG antibody levels may not be an accurate reflection of protection. Further studies including qualitative measures, such as avidity, in different populations are merited and may contribute to the understanding of MMR population protection.

The seroepidemiology of measles in Western Europe.

The European Regional Office of WHO has targeted measles for elimination from the region in 2007. Large national, age and sex stratified serological surveys of measles antibody were conducted in seven Western European countries from 1994-8 as part of the European Seroepidemiology Network. Three patterns were observed in the country-specific measles seroprofiles, ranging from (very) low susceptibility (four countries) to high susceptibility (one country). Susceptibility levels amongst 2-4-year-olds ranged from 2.9 to 29.8%, in 5-9-year-olds from 2.5 to 25% and 10-19-year-olds from 2.1% to 13.9%. A country's susceptibility profile was highly associated with vaccine coverage for the first dose. First dose coverage ranged from 91 to 97.5% for low susceptibility countries, 75 to 85% for intermediate susceptibility countries and 55% for the high susceptibility country. Only the high susceptibility country still reports epidemic measles. In low susceptibility countries, which have achieved or are very close to measles elimination, the priority will be to maintain high MMR vaccine coverage in all geopolitical units for both vaccine doses. In moderate susceptibility countries there is still some endemic transmission, but also risk of outbreaks as pools of susceptibles accumulate. In the high susceptibility country the priority will be to increase infant vaccine coverage and reduce regional variation in coverage levels.

The European Sero-Epidemiology Network: standardizing the enzyme immunoassay results for measles, mumps and rubella.

The ESEN (European Sero-Epidemiology Network) project was established to harmonize the seroepidemiology of five vaccine preventable infections including measles, mumps and rubella in eight European countries. This involved achieving comparability both in the assay results from testing in different centres and also sampling methodology. Standardization of enzyme immunoassay results was achieved through the development of common panels of sera by designated reference centres. The panels were tested at the reference laboratory and then distributed to each participating laboratory for testing using their routine methods. Standardization equations were calculated by regressing the quantitative results against those of the reference laboratory. Our study found large differences in unitage between participants, despite all using an EIA method standardized against an international or local standard. Moreover, our methodology adjusted for this difference. These standardization equations will be used to convert the results of main serosurvey testing into the reference country unitage to ensure inter-country comparability.

Characterization of enterovirus isolates from patients with heart muscle disease in a selenium-deficient area of China.

An association of enterovirus infection with endemic cardiomyopathy (Keshan disease [KD]) and outbreaks of myocarditis in selenium-deficient rural areas of southwestern China has been established. Enteroviruses have been isolated from patients with KD or during outbreaks of myocarditis in last two decades. Six of these isolates grew readily in cell lines (Vero or HEp-2) and were investigated by a novel molecular typing method apart from serotyping and pathogenicity. A neutralization assay identified two isolates from KD as coxsackievirus serotype B2 (CVB2) and two isolates from myocarditis as coxsackievirus serotype B6 (CVB6) but failed to type the remaining two isolates, also from myocarditis. Direct nucleotide sequencing of reverse transcription-PCR products amplified from the 5' nontranslated region (5'NTR) of these viruses confirmed that they belong to a phylogenetic cluster consisting of coxsackie B-like viruses, including some echovirus serotypes. Sequence analysis of the coding region for viral capsid protein VP1 showed that two isolates serotyped as CVB2 have the highest amino acid sequence homology with CVB2 and that the remaining four isolates, two CVB6 and the two unknown serotypes, are most closely related to the sequence of CVB6. Sequences among these isolates varied from 82.3 to 99% in the 5'NTR and from 69 to 99% in VP1, indicating no cross contamination. The pathogenicity of these viruses in adult and suckling mice was assessed. None caused pathologic changes in the hearts of adult MF-1 or SWR mice, although pancreatitis was evident. However, the four CVB6-like viruses caused death in suckling mice, similar to a virulent coxsackievirus group B3 laboratory strain. In conclusion, the sequence data confirm that coxsackievirus group B serotypes are predominant in the region in which KD is endemic and may be the etiological agents in outbreaks of myocarditis. VP1 genotyping of enteroviruses is accurate and reliable. Animal experiments indicate that isolates may differ in pathogenicity.

The burden of infection with HSV-1 and HSV-2 in England and Wales: implications for the changing epidemiology of genital herpes.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the burden of infection with herpes simplex type 1 (HSV-1) and herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) in the general population of England and Wales and to assess temporal changes in the incidence of HSV-1 infection in childhood. METHODS: 4930 residual blood samples taken from people aged 0-69 years and submitted to 15 public health laboratories in England and Wales between January 1994 and June 1995, and 500 samples taken from people aged 10-14 years between November 1986 and December 1987, were screened for IgG antibody to HSV-1 and HSV-2 using type specific ELISA assays. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibody to HSV-1 in 10-14 year olds declined from 34% in samples collected in 1986-7 to 24% in samples collected in 1994-5 (p < 0.001). HSV-1 antibody prevalence in adults increased with age and was higher in females than males, reaching 54% in females aged 25-30 years in 1994-5. In samples collected in 1994-5 from people aged 16-69 years HSV-2 antibody was detected in sera from 3.3% of men and 5.1% of women. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of HSV-1 infection in childhood is falling in England and Wales. The prevalence of HSV-2 infection in the general population is low, with the rate of infection significantly lower than that described for the general population in the United States and developing countries. The falling rate of HSV-1 infection in childhood may be one factor contributing to the increasing incidence of genital HSV-1 infection.

Ten years of serological surveillance in England and Wales: methods, results, implications and action.

BACKGROUND: The first age-stratified serological survey of antibody to measles, mumps and rubella in the UK was conducted in 1986/87 prior to the introduction of MMR vaccine into the immunization programme. Serum collection and testing have continued annually, allowing trends over time to be monitored. These sera have also been available for ad hoc surveys of other infections. METHODS: Residual sera are collected in participating laboratories and sent to a central store where they are irrevocably unlinked from identifying data. A unique identity number is assigned to each serum and details of age and sex are collated on a database. The sera are accessed for testing as required. RESULTS: The results of recurring and other surveys performed over the last ten years are presented. These demonstrate that opportunistic serum samples are an ideal resource for serological surveillance programmes. CONCLUSIONS: The serological surveillance programme has provided past exposure profiles for many infections. These data have resulted in a number of national policy changes and have been instrumental in shaping the UK vaccination programme.

Evidence of persisting serum antibodies to Escherichia coli O157 lipopolysaccharide and Verocytotoxin in members of rural communities in England.

The techniques of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblotting were used to examine a total of 1667 sera, from apparently healthy members of rural communities in England, for antibodies to the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) of Escherichia coli O157 and Verocytotoxins (VT). Twenty-nine sera from 22 individuals were shown to have antibodies specific for E. coli O157 LPS. Some of these lived on livestock farms and had occupational contact with cattle, suggesting that personnel working with farm animals may produce serum antibodies to the O157 LPS antigens. Fifteen people had IgG class antibodies to O157 LPS, suggesting long-term exposure to E. coli O157 and five people had serum antibodies on more than one occasion showing evidence of persistent antibodies to O157 LPS. Thirteen sera from 12 of 22 individuals also contained antibodies to VT1, VT2 or both toxins. Ten sera contained antibodies to VT1 and VT2, three sera contained antibodies to VT2 only.

Simultaneous IgM reactivity by EIA against more than one virus in measles, parvovirus B19 and rubella infection.

BACKGROUND: A clinical diagnosis of rash-causing infections is not always possible and reliance has to be placed on serological evidence of infection, especially on the presence of specific immunoglobulin (Ig)M. However, despite the use of modern serological methods and validated commercial kits, reports appear in the literature of simultaneous IgM reactivity against more than one virus in cases of Epstein Barr virus, rubella, cytomegalovirus, human parvovirus B19 (HPV B19) and measles infections, all with implications for the pregnant woman. OBJECTIVES: We decided to evaluate the extent of the problem in rubella, measles and HPV B19 infections in a routine diagnostic laboratory. STUDY DESIGN: We tested sera from cases with initial clinical and serological evidence of infection with measles, HPV B19 or rubella for evidence of simultaneous IgM reactivity against more than one virus. We confirmed primary infections with specific-IgG antibody avidity tests, and subjected sera with IgM reactivity against more than one virus to avidity tests to identify which, if any, of the three viruses was the cause of the primary infection. Groups of monoreactive IgM sera were randomly selected from the presented sera to demonstrate that the avidity of the IgG specific for the other two viruses would be of high avidity compared with the low avidity of the IgG specific for the virus against which specific IgM had been detected. RESULTS: Our results confirm that simultaneous IgM reactivity against more than one virus does occur in these three infections, and that this is unlikely to be caused by the presence of rheumatoid factor. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of seroconversion, reliance on specific IgM results alone for diagnosis of these infections should be avoided and tests such as specific IgG antibody avidity should also be employed. The simultaneous occurrence of IgM reactivity against more than one virus is also important for epidemiological and surveillance reasons as the widespread use of the mumps, measles and rubella vaccine makes its impact on the population. Falsely diagnosed cases of apparent measles or rubella could throw into question the efficacy of the vaccine.

A rationalised virological electron microscope specimen testing policy. PHLS North West Viral Gastroenteritis and Electron Microscopy Subcommittee.

The aim of this project was to produce guidance for a rationalised virological electron microscopy specimen testing policy for PHLS North West, to facilitate centralisation of a groupwide diagnostic electron microscopy service on a single site. Careful specimen selection to limit numbers and the groupwide use of commercially available enzyme immunoassays has allowed PHLS North West to reduce the number of specimens prepared for electron microscopy. The rationalised virological electron microscopy specimen testing policy has enabled a diagnostic electron microscopy service to be provided from a single site with a manageable workload. Implementation of this specimen testing policy by PHLS North West has been successful and may be applicable to other laboratories (or groups of laboratories) to maximise the use of expensive electron microscopy facilities.

Orf (contagious pustular dermatitis) in farmworkers: prevalence and risk factors in three areas of England.

Orf is a zoonotic skin disease which is commonly self-diagnosed by those who tend sheep and goats. This paper reports the prevalence, incidence and risk factors associated with the infection in a cohort of farmworkers from three areas of England, derived from the results of self-reporting and serology. Twenty-three per cent of those employed or living on a sheep farm reported ever having had orf, and the antibody serological profiles indicated a prevalence of 4 per cent and an annual incidence of 2.8 per cen. The main risk factors associated with the infection were contact with sheep, the size of the sheep flock, and contact with dogs.

The prevalence of hepatitis B infection in adults in England and Wales.

Cost effectiveness analyses of alternative hepatitis B vaccination programmes in England and Wales require a robust estimate of the lifetime risk of carriage. To this end, we report the prevalence of infection in 3781 anonymized individuals aged 15-44 years whose sera were submitted in 1996 to 16 microbiology laboratories in England and Wales. One hundred and forty-six individuals (3.9%) were confirmed as anti HBc positive, including 14 chronic carriers (0.37%). The prevalence of infection and carriage was higher in samples collected in London and increased with age. No increased risk of infection was seen in sera from genito-urinary (GUM) clinics. Only 15 sera positive for hepatitis B were also positive for hepatitis C. Our results confirm the low prevalence of hepatitis B in England and Wales, are consistent with previous estimates of carriage and suggest that many infections were acquired while resident outside the UK. Future prevalence studies should determine the country of birth and other risk factors for each individual in order to confirm these findings.