A Data Mining-based Prognostic Algorithm for NAFLD-related Hepatoma Patients: A Nationwide Study by the Japan Study Group of NAFLD.

The prognosis of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-related hepatocellular carcinoma (NAFLD-HCC) is intricately associated with various factors. We aimed to investigate the prognostic algorithm of NAFLD-HCC patients using a data-mining analysis. A total of 247 NAFLD-HCC patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2014 were registered from 17 medical institutions in Japan. Of these, 136 patients remained alive (Alive group) and 111 patients had died at the censor time point (Deceased group). The random forest analysis demonstrated that treatment for HCC and the serum albumin level were the first and second distinguishing factors between the Alive and Deceased groups. A decision-tree algorithm revealed that the best profile comprised treatment with hepatectomy or radiofrequency ablation and a serum albumin level ≥3.7 g/dL (Group 1). The second-best profile comprised treatment with hepatectomy or radiofrequency ablation and serum albumin levels <3.7 g/dL (Group 2). The 5-year overall survival rate was significantly higher in the Group 1 than in the Group 2. Thus, we demonstrated that curative treatment for HCC and serum albumin level >3.7 g/dL was the best prognostic profile for NAFLD-HCC patients. This novel prognostic algorithm for patients with NAFLD-HCC could be used for clinical management.

First phase viral kinetic parameters and prediction of response to interferon alpha-2b/ribavirin combination therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

The aim of the present study was to assess parameters in early phase HCV dynamics for predicting the outcome of interferon (IFN)/ribavirin combination therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CH-C). Sixty-five CH-C patients who received IFN alpha-2b/ribavirin combination therapy were enrolled. The serum levels of HCV RNA 0h and 3 months after commencing therapy were serially quantified. HCV kinetic parameters such as quantity, ratio of decline, and half-life were analyzed. In genotype 1 patients, both the quantity and the ratio of decline of HCV RNA 24h after the start of therapy were useful predictors of a poor response. No patients who had serum HCV RNA above 200KIU/ml 24h after the start of therapy achieved a sustained viral response (SVR). In genotype 2 patients, conversely, these two parameters were predictors of a sustained viral response. The efficacy of these parameters in predicting the outcome of therapy was comparable to that of the disappearance of HCV RNA from sera at 4 weeks. These results demonstrate that parameters of HCV kinetics 24h after the start of therapy are useful for the early prediction of outcome in response to IFN alpha-2b/ribavirin combination therapy.