Gun-free zones and active shootings in the United States: a matched case-control study.

Background: Most Americans believe that gun-free zones make locations more vulnerable to violent crimes, particularly active shootings. However, there is no empirical evidence regarding the impact of gun-free zones on protecting locations from violence. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between gun-free zones and active shootings. Methods: We used a pair-matched case-control study where cases were all US establishments where active shootings occurred between 2014 and 2020, and controls were randomly selected US establishments where active shootings could have but did not occur, pair-matched by establishment type, year, and county. Gun-free status of included establishments was determined via local laws, company policy, news reporting, Google Maps and posted signage, and calling establishments. Findings: Of 150 active shooting cases, 72 (48.0%) were determined to have occurred in a gun-free zone. Of 150 controls where no active shooting occurred, 92 (61.3%) were determined to be gun-free. After accounting for matched pairs, the conditional odds of an active shooting in gun-free establishments were 0.38 times those in non-gun-free establishments, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.19-0.73 (p-value = 0.0038). Several robustness analyses affirmed these findings. Interpretation: It is unlikely that gun-free zones attract active shooters; gun-free zones may be protective against active shootings. This study challenges the proposition of repealing gun-free zones based on safety concerns. Funding: This work was funded in part by the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research and the Arnold Foundation.

The Impact of Vacant and Abandoned Property on Health and Well-Being: A Qualitative Inquiry.

This qualitative study explored the role of neglected properties and neighborhood environment characteristics on a sample of New Orleans, Louisiana residents' health and well-being, sense of community, sense of safety, and civic engagement. We hypothesized that residents would identify conditions of their neighborhood's physical environment, including neglected properties, as one factor that impacted their health and other aspects of well-being. Seventy-four (N = 74) participants, including women, men, youth, young adults, and community leaders, took part in 11 focus groups (n = 51) and 23 key informant interviews. Thematic content analysis through inductive and deductive coding cycles of interview transcripts revealed five main categories related to urban neighborhood-built and social environments: 1) health and well-being, 2) sense of community, 3) sense of safety, 4) civic engagement, and 5) youth and family violence. Ten themes were developed and included, for example, the role of neighborhoods in delineating access to health-promoting characteristics and resources; the role of neighborhood social networks as crime prevention strategies; resident-led decision-making in neighborhood improvements; the negative impact of neglected properties; and the role of the local government in improving physical infrastructure. These findings affirm that residents were aware of and impacted by the cyclical nature of built environment neglect on health and well-being, community violence, neighborhood cohesion, civic engagement, and youth violence. Participants recommended improving neighborhood conditions to shift resident mindsets about the health of neighborhoods, reduce violence, and improve quality of life.

Temperature and firearm violence in four US cities: testing competing hypotheses.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm violence is a major public health issue in the USA. There is growing evidence that firearm violence is associated with higher ambient temperatures. The aim of this study was to test competing hypotheses that could explain associations between temperature and firearm violence: temperature-aggression theory and routine activities theory. METHODS: We examined associations between elevated daily temperatures and shooting incidents in four US cities: Chicago, Illinois; Cincinnati, Ohio; New York, New York and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Temperature was operationalised using two different measures: daily maximum temperature and deviations of the daily maximum temperature from 30-year averages. Generalised linear autoregressive moving average models related temperature to shooting incidence while controlling for seasonal effects. RESULTS: As maximum daily temperature deviates from the expected, there was an association with increased shooting incidents in all four cities (eg, New York: b=0.014, 95% CI=0.011 to 0.017). An interaction term created by multiplying daily maximum temperature by the daily difference of maximum temperature from a 30-year average was also found to have a positive association in all four cities (eg, New York: b=0.020, 95% CI=0.016 to 0.025). DISCUSSION: These findings accord with previous studies demonstrating a positive relationship between temperature and firearm violence and further support temperature-aggression theory as the primary causal mechanism.

The association between street construction projects and community violence in New York City.

Introduction: Community violence is a major cause of injury and death in the United States. Empirical studies have identified that some place-based interventions of urban private places, such as remediations of vacant lots and buildings, are associated with reductions in community violence in surrounding areas. The aim of this study was to examine whether routine maintenance and repair of urban public places (e.g., street construction projects) are also associated with reductions in community violence, proxied by violent crime. Method: This staggered adoption difference-in-difference analysis investigated the association between street construction projects and community violence in New York City from 2010-2019, divided into 40 calendar quarters. The units of analysis were street-quarters (n = 155,280). Intervention street-quarters were those with completed projects in 2010-2019; control streets were those where projects were scheduled but not completed before 2019. The outcome of community violence was proxied by counts of crime and violence incidents reported to the New York Police Department, within street-quarters. Results: There were 79,592 street-quarters with any community violence incidents (51.2%). We found that street construction projects were associated with a decrease in reckless endangerment (ATT = -0.013; 95% CI = -0.021, -0.004), robbery (ATT = -0.035; 95% CI = -0.063, -0.007), and weapons offenses (ATT = -0.016; 95% CI = -0.031, -0.001) occurring on street-quarters. Conclusion: Street construction projects may be yet another type of place-based intervention to reduce community violence.

Attitudes of women towards intimate partner violence in Guyana: A cross-sectional analytical study.

BACKGROUND: To assess the attitudes of women towards intimate partner violence (IPV) in Guyana. METHODS: We used national data from the publicly available Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) conducted in Guyana in 2019 for women aged 15 to 49 years. The prevalence of women who agreed that a husband is justified in beating his wife was analyzed. Respondent reasons included if she: "goes out without telling him", "neglects the children", "argues with him", "refuses sex with him", "burns the food", "has another partner", "stays out late/partying", "refuses to cook or clean", "overspends", and/or "he doesn't have access to her cellphone". Descriptive analyses were carried for all the variables. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with these 10 respondent reasons, separately and in combination. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of women's attitudes justifying IPV against women if there was a 'yes' response to any of the 10 reasons was 17.9% (95%CI: 16.6-19.3%), and varied from 2.7% if she "goes out without telling him", "burns the food", or "overspends" to 10.0% if she "has another partner". This prevalence ranged from 10.2% in urban areas to 19.3% in rural areas (p<0.001), and from 16.1% in coastal to 30.1% in interior areas (p<0.001). Similarly, 25.9% of women from the poorest household agreed that a husband has the right in beating his wife for any of the 10 reasons compared to 11.6% of the richest women (11.6%) (p<0.001). Rural place of residence, ethnicity, geographic region, level of education, wealth quintile, ever used of a computer, and frequency of listening to the radio were significant factors associated with women's attitudes justifying IPV against women (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Over one-sixth of the respondents agreed that a husband was justified in committing IPV against women in Guyana. Public health programs focusing on geographic locations, ethnicity, and economic status must be implemented to change attitudes justifying IPV and reduce this significant public health challenge.

Systematic disparities in reporting on community firearm violence on local television news in Philadelphia, PA, USA.

Objective: To better understand how community firearm violence (CFV) is communicated to the public, we aimed to identify systematic differences between the characteristics of shooting victims and events covered on television news and all shootings in Philadelphia, PA, a city with escalating CFV incidence. Methods: We compiled a stratified sample of local television news clips covering shootings that occurred in Philadelphia aired on two randomly selected days per month from January-June 2021 (n = 154 clips). We coded the clips to determine demographic and geographic information about the shooting victims and events and then matched coded shootings with corresponding shootings in the Philadelphia police database. We compared characteristics of shooting victims and shooting event locations depicted in television clips (n = 62) with overall characteristics of shootings in Philadelphia during the study period (n = 1082). Results: Compared to all individuals shot, victims whose shootings were covered on local television news more likely to be children and more likely to be shot in a mass shooting. The average median household income of shooting locations featured on television was significantly higher than the median household income across all shooting locations ($60,302 for television shootings vs. $41,233 for all shootings; p = 0.002). Shootings featured on television occurred in areas with lower rates of income inequality and racialized economic segregation compared to all shooting locations. Conclusions: Television news outlets in Philadelphia systematically over-reported shootings of children, mass shootings, and shootings that occurred in neighborhoods with higher median household income, less socioeconomic inequality, and lower rates of racialized economic segregation.

Physical environmental roadway interventions and injury and death for vulnerable road users: a natural experiment in New York City.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined the effectiveness of three physical environmental roadway interventions (enhanced crossings, speed humps, and turn traffic calming) in preventing crashes involving pedestrian and cyclist injury and mortality in New York City. METHODS: We examined crashes that occurred within a 100-foot radius of intervention and control sites from 2015 to 2019. We used a staggered difference-in-difference design to estimate the association between each intervention type and pedestrian and cyclist crash outcomes. RESULTS: Estimates for enhanced crossings and speed humps included the possibility of no association with crashes, but estimates for turn traffic calming interventions showed reduced odds of crashes involving pedestrian injury by 16% (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.95) and crashes involving pedestrian fatality by 80% (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.47). When stratifying by street segment length as a proxy for areas with high speeding risk, turn traffic calming treatments appeared to be most effective at intersections connected to long street segments. DISCUSSION: Turn traffic calming may substantially reduce crash risks for pedestrians. Municipalities can prioritise this physical environmental intervention, especially at turns near long street segments, as a low-cost intervention with substantial public health impact.

Trends in police complaints and arrests on New York City subways, 2018 to 2023: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC's COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau. METHODS: Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups. RESULTS: After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (- 0.02, CI - 0.04, - 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (- 0.13, CI - 0.17, - 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.