Managing complexity: Simplifying assumptions of foot-and-mouth disease models for swine.

Compartmental models have often been used to test the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative control strategies to mitigate the spread of infectious animal diseases. A fundamental principle of epidemiological modelling is that models should start as simple as possible and become as complex as needed. The simplest version of a compartmental model assumes that the population is closed, void of births and deaths and that this closed population mixes homogeneously, meaning that each infected individual has an equal probability of coming into contact with each susceptible individual in the population. However, this assumption may oversimplify field conditions, leading to conclusions about disease mitigation strategies that are suboptimal. Here, we assessed the impact of the homogeneous mixing/closed population assumption, which is commonly assumed for within-farm models of highly contagious diseases of swine, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), on predictions about disease spread. Incorporation of farm structure (different barns or rooms for breeding and gestation, farrowing, nursery and finishing) and demography (piglet births and deaths, and animal movement within and off of the farm) resulted in transmission dynamics that differed in the latter portion of an outbreak. Specifically, farm structure and demography, which were included in the farrow to finish and farrow to wean farms, resulted in FMD virus persistence within the population under certain conditions. Results here demonstrate the impact of incorporating farm structure and demography into models of FMD spread in swine populations and will ultimately contribute to the design and evaluation of effective disease control strategies to mitigate the impact of potential incursions.

Monitoring breeding herd production data to detect PRRSV outbreaks.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) causes substantial economic impact due to significant losses in productivity. Thus, measuring changes in farm productivity before and after PRRS infection enables quantifying the production and economic impact of outbreaks. This study assessed the application of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), a statistical process control method, on selected production data (number of abortions, pre-weaning mortality rate and prenatal losses) to supplement PRRS surveillance programs by detecting significant deviations on productivity in a production system with 55,000 sows in 14 breed-to-wean herds in Minnesota, U.S.A. Weekly data from diagnostic monitoring program (available through the Morrison's Swine Health Monitoring Project) implemented on the same herds was used as reference for PRRS status. The time-to-detect, percentage of early detection of PRRSv-associated productivity deviations, and relative sensitivity and specificity of the production data monitoring system were determined relative to the MSHMP. The time-to-detect deviations on productivity associated with PRRS outbreaks using the EWMA method was -4 to -1 weeks (interquartile range) for the number of abortions, 0-0 for preweaning mortality and -1 to 3 weeks for prenatal losses compared to the date it was reported in the MSHMP database. Overall, the models had high relative sensitivity (range 85.7-100%) and specificity (range 98.5%-99.6%) when comparing to the changes in PRRS status reported in the MSHMP database. In summary, the use of systematic data monitoring showed a high concordance compared to the MSHMP-reported outbreaks indicating that on-farm staff and veterinary oversight were efficient to detect PRRSv, but can be more efficient if they were monitoring closely the frequency of abortions. The systematic monitoring of production indicators using EWMA offers opportunity to standardize and semi-automate the detection of deviations on productivity associated with PRRS infection, offering opportunity to early detect outbreaks and/or to quantify the production losses attributed to PRRS infection.

Effect of immunologic solutions on sows and gilts on time to stability, and production losses in breeding herds infected with 1-7-4 PRRSv.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) is an economically significant swine pathogen causing production losses in the global swine industry. Clinical impact depends on many factors including the virus itself. One method to sub-type PRRSv is using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). The RFLP pattern 1-7-4 emerged within the United States swine industry in 2014 and has become prevalent since then. This was a field study that prospectively followed 1-7-4-infected breeding herds (n=107) and compared time to stability (TTS), time to baseline production (TTBP) and total loss per 1000 sows between herds using modified-live virus vaccine (MLV) on sows and gilts (MLV-MLV), MLV on sows and MLV in addition to field virus exposure on gilts (MLV-MLV/FVE) or not deliberately exposing sows or gilts to PRRSv (Natural-Natural). Analyses were done in SAS 9.4 and results were adjusted by selected co-variates (duration of herd closure, number of previous PRRSv outbreaks of last 3 years, weaning frequency/week, gilt development unit location, herd size and production system). Survival analysis was conducted on TTS and TTBP and regression analysis on total loss. Herds in the Natural-Natural group achieved TTS and TTBP before other herds. Herds in the MLV-MLV/FVE had the longest TTS and TTBP. The total loss was numerically least in MLV-MLV herds (1194 pigs/1000 sows) compared to MLV/MLV-FVE (1810/1000 sows) and Natural-Natural (2671/1000 sows). This study provided additional information to assist veterinarians deciding between methods of exposure to manage PRRSv infection from breeding herds.

Comparison of time to PRRSv-stability and production losses between two exposure programs to control PRRSv in sow herds.

To control and eliminate porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) from breeding herds, some veterinarians adopt a strategy called load-close-expose which consists of interrupting replacement pig introduction for several months and exposing the pigs to a replicating PRRSv. This was a prospective quasi-experiment that followed 61 breeding herds acutely infected with PRRSv that adopted one of two exposure programs: modified-live virus (MLV) vaccine or live-resident virus inoculation (LVI). Treatment groups (load-close-expose with MLV or LVI) were compared for: (a) time-to-PRRSv stability (TTS), defined as time in weeks it took to produce PRRSv negative pigs at weaning; (b) the time-to-baseline production (TTBP), defined using statistical process control methods to represent time to recover to the number of pigs weaned per week that herds had prior to PRRSv-detection; and (c) the total production loss in terms of number of pigs weaned per week. TTS and TTBP were compared between treatments using survival analysis. Day 1 of the program was considered to be the day that treatment was administered. Sampling at herds consisted of bleeding 30 due-to-wean piglets on a monthly basis. Serum was tested for PRRSv RNA by RT-PCR. Herds in which PRRSv was not detected over a 90-day period were classified as reaching stability. Multivariate analysis using proportional hazards regression was performed adjusting the effect of treatment on TTBP and TTS to 'severity of PRRSv infection', 'number of whole-herd exposures', 'days from PRRSv-detection to intervention', 'prior PRRSv-infection status' and 'veterinary clinic associated with the herd'. Total loss was compared between groups using multivariate regression analysis adjusted by selected covariates. The median TTS among participating herds was 26.6 weeks (25th to 75th percentile, 21.6-33.0 weeks). The overall TTBP was 16.5 weeks (range 0-29 weeks). The magnitude of production losses following whole-herd exposure averaged 2217 pigs not weaned/1000 sows and was correlated with TTBP. Herds in the MLV group recovered production sooner and had less total loss than herds in the LVI group. TTBP and TTS were significantly shorter and the total loss was significantly less in herds assisted by a specific veterinary clinic and herds that were infected with PRRSv in the 3 years prior to the study. This study provided new metrics to assist veterinarians to decide between methods of exposure to control and eliminate PRRSv from breeding herds.

Detection of airborne influenza a virus in experimentally infected pigs with maternally derived antibodies.

This study assessed whether recently weaned piglets with maternally derived antibodies were able to generate infectious influenza aerosols. Three groups of piglets were assembled based on the vaccination status of the dam. Sows were either non-vaccinated (CTRL) or vaccinated with the same (VAC-HOM) strain or a different (VAC-HET) strain to the one used for challenge. Piglets acquired the maternally derived antibodies by directly suckling colostrum from their respective dams. At weaning, pigs were challenged with influenza virus by direct contact with an infected pig (seeder pig) and clinical signs evaluated. Air samples, collected using a liquid cyclonic air collector, and individual nasal swabs were collected daily for 10 days from each group and tested by matrix real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RRT-PCR) assay. Virus isolation and titration were attempted for air samples on Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. All individual pigs from both VAC-HET and CTRL groups tested positive during the study but only one pig in the VAC-HOM group was positive by nasal swab RRT-PCR. Influenza virus could not be detected or isolated from air samples from the VAC-HOM group. Influenza A virus was isolated from 3.2% and 6.4% air samples from both the VAC-HET and CTRL groups, respectively. Positive RRT-PCR air samples were only detected in VAC-HET and CTRL groups on day 7 post-exposure. Overall, this study provides evidence that recently weaned pigs with maternally derived immunity without obvious clinical signs of influenza infection can generate influenza infectious aerosols which is relevant to the transmission and the ecology of influenza virus in pigs.

Challenges and opportunities for the control and elimination of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus.

The control and elimination of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) represent two of the most challenging tasks facing the pig industry worldwide. Several factors related to the biology of the virus make disease detection and elimination difficult. Efforts are further hampered by the lack of vaccines that can protect naïve herds from infection. With this in mind, elimination efforts are being initiated which incorporate existing tools and knowledge. A new approach extends herd control strategies to the level of a region. One example of success in PRRSV regional elimination is the Stevens County project in Minnesota.

Relationships between tail biting in pigs and disease lesions and condemnations at slaughter.

Two matched case-control studies were performed at an abattoir with a capacity of 780 pigs per hour, each study using the approximately 7000 pigs slaughtered on one day. In the first study, the severity of tail biting and pneumonia were recorded in pigs with bitten or intact tails. In the second study, the tail score, sex, and the presence of pleuritis, externally visible abscesses and trimming were recorded in pigs with bitten or intact tails. In study 1, there was no significant association between the tail score and the percentage of lung tissue affected by lesions typical of enzootic pneumonia, but there was a significant association between the severity of tail biting and the prevalence of lungs with abscesses and/or pleuritic lesions (P<0.0001). In study 2, there were significant associations between the severity of tail biting, and the prevalence of external carcase abscesses and carcase trimming; the carcases of castrated males had evidence of tail biting more frequently than the carcases of females (P<0.05).

Pig characteristics associated with mortality and light exit weight for the nursery phase.

One thousand and ten weaned pigs that were reared in 1 nursery in Iowa from weaning (17 +/- 2 days ) until 10 weeks of age were evaluated. A weaning weight threshold of 3.6 kg maximized the sensitivity and specificity to correctly predict the likelihood of dying or being light in weight at exit from the nursery (< or = 14.5 kg). Weaning weight < or = 3.6 kg (OR = 2.92), barrow (OR = 1.75), and sow unit (A versus B, OR = 2.14) were significant predictors of mortality in the nursery. Birth weight < or = 1.0 kg (OR = 2.66), weaning weight < or = 3.6 kg (OR = 8.75), gilt (OR = 1.4), sow unit (OR = 2.38), and gilt as nursing sow at weaning (OR = 1.66) were significant predictors of being lightweight at nursery exit. Eighteen per cent of the nursery deaths and almost half of lightweight nursery pigs could be prevented if there were no lightweight pigs at weaning.

Application of broken-line analysis to assess floor space requirements of nursery and grower-finisher pigs expressed on an allometric basis.

Few issues in swine production are as complex as floor space allowances. One method for pork producers to calculate floor space allowance (A) is to convert BW into a 2-dimensional concept yielding an expression of A = k * BW(0.667). Data on ADG, ADFI, and G:F were obtained from published peer-reviewed studies. Five data sets were created: A = grower-finisher pigs, fully slatted floors, and consistent group size; B = grower-finisher pigs and fully slatted floors (group size did not need to be consistent); C = grower-finisher pigs, partially slatted floors, and consistent group size; D = grower-finisher pigs, partially slatted floors (group size did not need to be consistent); and E = nursery pigs, fully slatted or woven wire floors (group size did not need to be consistent). Each data set was analyzed using a broken-line analysis and a linear regression. For the broken-line analyses, the critical k value, below which a decrease in ADG occurred, varied from 0.0317 to 0.0348. In all cases the effect of space allowance on ADG was significant (P < 0.05). Using the linear analyses based on data with k values of < 0.030, the critical k values for the 4 grower-finisher data sets did not differ from those obtained using the broken-line analysis (0.0358 vs. 0.0336, respectively; P > 0.10); however, none of the linear regressions explained a significant proportion of the variation in ADG. The slopes for the nonplateau portion of the broken-line analyses based on percent values varied among data sets. For every 0.001 decrease in k (approximately 3% of the critical k value), ADG decreased by 0.56 to 1.41%, with an average value of 0.98% for the 5%-based analyses. The use of an allometric approach to express space allowance and broken-line analysis to establish space requirements seem to be useful tools for pig production. The critical k value at which crowding becomes detrimental to the growth of the pig is similar in full- and partial-slat systems and in nursery and grower-finisher stages. The critical point for crowding determined in these analyses approximated current recommendations to ensure the welfare of pigs.

Mixed models applied to the study of variation of grower-finisher mortality and culling rates of a large swine production system.

Large scale production systems for swine are frequently organized in a hierarchical structure. Consequently, important production parameters, such as mortality and culling, can be analyzed at different levels. The major aims of this study were to assess variance components (VC) of mortality and culling rates attributed to sites and to barns within a site, and subsequently to investigate the impact of average entry weight, days on feed (length of the production turn), and season on the magnitude of the VC. Then, data from a large farm with 3 sites were collected during 5 y. In total, 1720040 pigs distributed in 1502 all-in/all-out grower-finisher groups were included. Linear mixed models were fitted for mortality and culling rates. The barn was modeled as the residual component (barn-to-barn variations) with production turn and site nested within production turn as random intercept variance components. Barn-to-barn pig group variation was the largest VC for mortality (63.08%), when no predictors were included in the models. Predictors, such as pigs placed on quarters 2 and 3, low average entry weight, and shorter production turn length, were associated together with higher mortality. The explained proportion of variance due to these predictors was about 12.05% and the VC for barn, site, and production turn were 67.6%, 17.6%, and 14.8%, respectively. Barn-to-barn variation was also the largest VC for culling rate (46.2%), but the same predictor mentioned above explained only about 1.4% of the variation. The VC for barn, site, and production turn were 46.8%, 21.3%, and 31.8%, respectively. Since the variability among barns far exceeded the variability among sites, the barn should be used as experimental unit in studies with grower-finisher mortality, culling rate, or both, as outcome variables.

Risk factors for mortality in grow-finishing pigs in Belgium.

The present study investigated risk factors for mortality in grow-finishing pigs of 137 pig herds belonging to one integration company during a period of 2.5 years. Mortality data, expressed as the number of dead pigs divided by the number of pigs placed in the fattening unit were investigated retrospectively. The following potential risk factors were evaluated: type of pig herd, season and year of placement in the fattening unit, pig density in the municipality, management practices (density of the pigs in the barn, origin of the pigs), housing conditions and feeding practices. The overall average mortality percentage was 4.70%. Three variables in a multivariable regression model were significantly associated with mortality: season of placement in the fattening unit, origin of the piglets and duration of the fattening period. Pigs placed in October, November and December, were at higher risk than pigs placed in other months. Herds that purchased pigs from a merchant, used pigs from other herds with an excess of piglets for filling their fattening units or herds that purchased pigs from more than five origin herds also suffered higher mortality. The mortality also increased in case of longer duration of the fattening period. This study documented for the first time that in addition to seasonal effects and a longer duration of the fattening period, purchasing feeder pigs from one or a limited number of herds is of crucial importance to achieve low mortality in the grow-finishing pigs.

Challenges of the final stages of the ADV eradication program.

The authors were chairpersons in the session on epidemiology and control of Aujeszky's disease (AD). In this document, they focus on several issues, such as vaccination, compliance and surveillance, which influence the eradication programs. Also, some research topics which may need attention in the future are indicated. The main conclusion is that eradication programs for AD virus have made good progress in different parts of the world and that we have the knowledge and tools to do the job. It must be realized, however, that setbacks can occur. As prevalence declines, susceptibility increases and producers may let their guard down so that the virus may spread again in susceptible areas.

Prevalence of lesions and body condition scores among female swine at slaughter.

OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence of foot lesions, dermatitis, shoulder lesions, mammary gland abnormalities, and visceral lesions, and body condition scores among culled female swine at slaughter. DESIGN: Observational study. ANIMALS: Culled gilts and sows killed during a 1-week period at a Midwest slaughterhouse. PROCEDURE: Carcasses were examined, and lesions were recorded. Body condition was scored on the basis of standard criteria. RESULTS: 58.9% (1,029/1,747) of the carcasses had foot lesions, 67.3% (1,178/1,751) had dermatitis, and 4.6% (80/1,751) had shoulder lesions. Body condition score was significantly associated with detection of dermatitis and shoulder lesions. Mean +/- SE number of teats (n = 1,432 carcasses) was 13.86 +/- 0.02. Mean numbers of normal-appearing teats in the left and right mammary chains were 6.57 +/- 0.02 and 6.58 +/- 0.02, respectively. Feet from 48% (688/1,433) of the carcasses were condemned. Visceral lesions were found in 48.8% (624/1,278) of the carcasses; of the carcasses with lesions, 412 (66%) had liver spots, and 268 (42.9%) had pneumonia. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Lesions that potentially could have adversely affected production were found in a large percentage of culled gilts and sows at slaughter. Knowledge of lesions commonly found at slaughter may help direct changes in herd health programs.

Detection of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction using different regions of the viral genome.

Serologic studies have revealed strain variability between American and European isolates and among American isolates of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). The objective of this study was to develop an assay for the routine diagnosis of PRRSV in field specimens using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) amplification of conserved genomic regions. Twenty-four field isolates of PRRSV from different regions of the USA were analyzed in the study. Six primer pairs from open reading frames (ORFs) 4, 6, and 7 of the American strain (ATCC VR-2332) and from ORF 1b of the Lelystad strain were used for the amplification of the viral genome by PCR. Amplification products of the expected sizes were obtained from all isolates by PCR amplification of ORF 7, the gene encoding the nucleocapsid protein. Oligonucleotide primers designed to amplify ORFs 4 and 6 detected 92% and 96% of the isolates, respectively, whereas primers for the amplification of ORF 1b detected 88% of all isolates. The specificity of the amplified products of ORF 7 from 7 field isolates and 2 reference strains was confirmed by chemiluminescent hybridization using an internal digoxigenin-labeled DNA probe. Sequence analysis of this region indicated variation in the nucleotide sequence of 2 isolates that did not hybridize with the internal probe. These results indicate that ORF 7 may serve as a potential target for the detection of PRRSV strains by RT-PCR and that genomic variability should be considered when nucleic acid hybridization is used to confirm the specificity of PCR amplification for diagnostic purposes.

Abbreviated hospitalization for deep venous thrombosis with the use of ardeparin.

BACKGROUND: Ardeparin sodium has recently received approval by the Food and Drug Administration for prophylaxis against venous thromboembolism in patients undergoing elective total knee replacement. However, this low-molecular-weight heparin has not been previously evaluated in a randomized controlled trial for treatment of established acute deep venous thrombosis. METHODS: The study included patients with ultrasound-documented acute symptomatic deep venous thrombosis of the legs. They had to be deemed appropriate for discharge home to receive subcutaneous low-molecular-weight heparin. Patients were randomized to receive ardeparin with a 2-day hospitalization or unfractionated heparin sodium with a 5-day hospitalization. Both groups received warfarin sodium. Follow-up ultrasound examinations were undertaken at 6 weeks. RESULTS: Of the 80 patients enrolled, 75 had follow-up ultrasonography. Evaluation of baseline vs 6-week venous scans demonstrated that, overall, 31 of the 39 ardeparin-treated patients improved, compared with 21 of the 36 patients assigned to receive unfractionated heparin (P=.05). The 95% confidence interval for the difference in improvement was 0.6% to 42% in favor of ardeparin. Median charges for ardeparin and unfractionated heparin were $2815 and $6500, respectively (P<.001). There were no differences in bleeding or patient satisfaction between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this small preliminary trial suggest that ardeparin can be administered effectively and safely to selected patients with acute deep venous thrombosis and that, with proper nursing and home services, it can help decrease the duration of hospitalization.

Shortened hospitalization by means of adjusted-dose subcutaneous heparin for deep venous thrombosis.

Adjusted-dose subcutaneous unfractionated heparin (SC heparin) was used in the initial management of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) to allow shortened hospital stay. Of 78 patients screened, 41% were eligible and 18 (23%) were enrolled. Follow-up venous ultrasound examination was performed 6 weeks after discharge. Of enrolled patients, 16 (89%) completed the protocol. Hospital length of stay was 2 days in protocol patients compared with 5 days for patients receiving conventional inpatient heparin with a continuous intravenous infusion (p = 0.0009). Very high heparin doses (mean 42,000 to 62,000 U daily, given in three divided doses every 8 hours) and a median time of 21 hours were required initially to achieve a target activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) > 55 seconds. Subsequently many patients had supratherapeutic levels, yet there were no bleeding complications. Four patients (25%) did not show improvement at follow-up ultrasound in spite of aPTTs > 55 seconds after the second injection. Clot regression was evident in remaining patients. Hospital cost savings were offset partially by the need for time- and labor-intensive outpatient monitoring after hospital discharge.

Experimental porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus infection in one-, four-, and 10-week-old pigs.

One-, 4-, and 10-week-old pigs were exposed to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) to determine the effect of age on clinical signs, hematologic alterations, the onset and duration of viremia, routes of virus shedding, antibody production, and microscopic lesions produced by PRRSV isolate ATCC VR-2332. The response to PRRSV infection was similar among age groups. Fever, usually prolonged, and a marked dyspnea with cutaneous erythema when restrained for sample collection were the most consistent clinical signs. Prolonged periocular edema was unique to the 1-week-old pigs. The white blood cell count was decreased on day 4 postexposure (PE) due to decreases in neutrophils and lymphocytes. The virus was isolated from buffy coats at day 1 PE and was isolated from serum, buffy coat, or plasma at each sample collection period through the end of the trial (day 28 PE). Virus was most consistently isolated from lung, lymph node, spleen, and tonsil on day 7 PE and exclusively from lymph node, spleen, and tonsil on day 28 PE. Virus was infrequently isolated from urine and fecal and nasal swabs. Consistent microscopic changes in all age groups included interstitial pneumonia and lymph node hypertrophy and hyperplasia on days 7 and 28 PE, lymph node necrosis on day 7 PE, and subacute mononuclear myocarditis on day 28 PE. Findings presented here indicate that interstitial pneumonia, lymphoid necrosis, and mononuclear myocarditis are characteristic lesions of PRRSV isolate ATCC VR-2332 infection in 1-, 4-, and 10-week-old pigs.