Effect of Confining Conditions on the Hydraulic Conductivity Behavior of Fiber-Reinforced Lime Blended Semiarid Soil.

The hydraulic properties of expansive soils are affected due to the formation of visible cracks in the dry state. Chemical stabilization coupled with fiber reinforcement is often considered an effective strategy to improve the geotechnical performance of such soils. In this study, hydraulic conductivity tests have been conducted on expansive clay using two different types of fibers (fiber cast (FC) and fiber mesh (FM)) exhibiting different surface morphological properties. The fiber parameters include their dosage (added at 0.2% to 0.6% by dry weight of soil) and length (6 and 12 mm). Commercially available lime is added to ensure proper bonding between clay particles and fiber materials, and its dosage was fixed at 6% (by dry weight of the soil). Saturated hydraulic conductivity tests were conducted relying on a flexible wall permeameter on lime-treated fiber-blended soil specimens cured for 7 and 28 days. The confining pressures were varied from 50 to 400 kPa, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity values (ksat) were determined. For FC fibers, an increase in fiber dosage caused ksat values to increase by 9.5% and 94.3% for the 6 and 12 mm lengths, respectively, at all confining pressures and curing periods. For FM fibers, ksat values for samples mixed with 6 mm fiber increased by 12 and 99.2% for 6 and 12 mm lengths, respectively for all confining pressures at the end of the 28-day curing period. The results obtained from a flexible wall permeameter (FWP) were compared with those of a rigid wall permeameter (RWP) available in the literature, and the fundamental mechanism responsible for such variations is explained.

Condition-Based Maintenance with Reinforcement Learning for Dry Gas Pipeline Subject to Internal Corrosion.

Gas pipeline systems are one of the largest energy infrastructures in the world and are known to be very efficient and reliable. However, this does not mean they are prone to no risk. Corrosion is a significant problem in gas pipelines that imposes large risks such as ruptures and leakage to the environment and the pipeline system. Therefore, various maintenance actions are performed routinely to ensure the integrity of the pipelines. The costs of the corrosion-related maintenance actions are a significant portion of the pipeline's operation and maintenance costs, and minimizing this large cost is a highly compelling subject that has been addressed by many studies. In this paper, we investigate the benefits of applying reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to the corrosion-related maintenance management of dry gas pipelines. We first address the rising need for a simulated testbed by proposing a test bench that models corrosion degradation while interacting with the maintenance decision-maker within the RL environment. Second, we propose a condition-based maintenance management approach that leverages a data-driven RL decision-making methodology. An RL maintenance scheduler is applied to the proposed test bench, and the results show that applying the proposed condition-based maintenance management technique can reduce up to 58% of the maintenance costs compared to a periodic maintenance policy while securing pipeline reliability.

An Entropy Based Bayesian Network Framework for System Health Monitoring.

Oil pipeline network system health monitoring is important primarily due to the high cost of failure consequences. Optimal sensor selection helps provide more effective system health information from the perspective of economic and technical constraints. Optimization models confront different issues. For instance, many oil pipeline system performance models are inherently nonlinear, requiring nonlinear modelling. Optimization also confronts modeling uncertainties. Oil pipeline systems are among the most complicated and uncertain dynamic systems, as they include human elements, complex failure mechanisms, control systems, and most importantly component interactions. In this paper, an entropy-based Bayesian network optimization methodology for sensor selection and placement under uncertainty is developed. Entropy is a commonly used measure of information often been used to characterize uncertainty, particularly to quantify the effectiveness of measured signals of sensors in system health monitoring contexts. The entropy based Bayesian network optimization outlined herein also incorporates the effect that sensor reliability has on system information entropy content, which can also be related to the sensor cost. This approach is developed further by incorporating system information entropy and sensor costs in order to evaluate the performance of sensor combinations. The paper illustrates the approach using a simple oil pipeline network example. The so-called particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the multi-objective optimization model, establishing the Pareto frontier.

Explicit Ringing Removal in Image Deblurring.

In this paper, we present a simple yet effective image deblurring method to produce ringing-free deblurred images. Our work is inspired by the observation that large-scale deblurring ringing artifacts are measurable through a multi-resolution pyramid of low-pass filtering of the blurred-deblurred image pair. We propose to model such a quantification as a convex cost function and minimize it directly in the deblurring process in order to reduce ringing regardless of its cause. An efficient primal-dual algorithm is proposed as a solution to this optimization problem. Since the regularization is more biased toward ringing patterns, the details of the reconstructed image are prevented from over-smoothing. An inevitable source of ringing is sensor saturation which can be detected costlessly contrary to most other sources of ringing. However, dealing with the saturation effect in deblurring introduces a non-linear operator in optimization problem. In this paper, we also introduce a linear approximation as a solution to handling saturation in the proposed deblurring method. As a result of these steps, we significantly enhance the quality of the deblurred images. Experimental results and quantitative evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method performs favorably against state-of-the-art image deblurring methods.

Evaluating the Impact of Uncertainty on Risk Prediction: Towards More Robust Prediction Models.

Risk prediction models are crucial for assessing the pretest probability of cancer and are applied to stratify patient management strategies. These models are frequently based on multivariate regression analysis, requiring that all risk factors be specified, and do not convey the confidence in their predictions. We present a framework for uncertainty analysis that accounts for variability in input values. Uncertain or missing values are replaced with a range of plausible values. These ranges are used to compute individualized risk confidence intervals. We demonstrate our approach using the Gail model to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on management decisions. Up to 13% of cases (uncertain) had a risk interval that falls within the decision threshold (e.g., 1.67% 5-year absolute risk). A small number of cases changed from low- to high-risk when missing values were present. Our analysis underscores the need for better communication of input assumptions that influence the resulting predictions.

A Life Prediction Model of Multilayered PTH Based on Fatigue Mechanism.

Plated through hole (PTH) plays a critical role in printed circuit board (PCB) reliability. Thermal fatigue deformation of the PTH material is regarded as the primary factor affecting the lifetime of electrical devices. Numerous research efforts have focused on the failure mechanism model of PTH. However, most of the existing models were based on the one-dimensional structure hypothesis without taking the multilayered structure and external pad into consideration. In this paper, the constitutive relation of multilayered PTH is developed to establish the stress equation, and finite element analysis (FEA) is performed to locate the maximum stress and simulate the influence of the material properties. Finally, thermal cycle tests are conducted to verify the accuracy of the life prediction results. This model could be used in fatigue failure portable diagnosis and for life prediction of multilayered PCB.

A Hybrid Methodology for Modeling Risk of Adverse Events in Complex Health-Care Settings.

In spite of increased attention to quality and efforts to provide safe medical care, adverse events (AEs) are still frequent in clinical practice. Reports from various sources indicate that a substantial number of hospitalized patients suffer treatment-caused injuries while in the hospital. While risk cannot be entirely eliminated from health-care activities, an important goal is to develop effective and durable mitigation strategies to render the system "safer." In order to do this, though, we must develop models that comprehensively and realistically characterize the risk. In the health-care domain, this can be extremely challenging due to the wide variability in the way that health-care processes and interventions are executed and also due to the dynamic nature of risk in this particular domain. In this study, we have developed a generic methodology for evaluating dynamic changes in AE risk in acute care hospitals as a function of organizational and nonorganizational factors, using a combination of modeling formalisms. First, a system dynamics (SD) framework is used to demonstrate how organizational-level and policy-level contributions to risk evolve over time, and how policies and decisions may affect the general system-level contribution to AE risk. It also captures the feedback of organizational factors and decisions over time and the nonlinearities in these feedback effects. SD is a popular approach to understanding the behavior of complex social and economic systems. It is a simulation-based, differential equation modeling tool that is widely used in situations where the formal model is complex and an analytical solution is very difficult to obtain. Second, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) framework is used to represent patient-level factors and also physician-level decisions and factors in the management of an individual patient, which contribute to the risk of hospital-acquired AE. BBNs are networks of probabilities that can capture probabilistic relations between variables and contain historical information about their relationship, and are powerful tools for modeling causes and effects in many domains. The model is intended to support hospital decisions with regard to staffing, length of stay, and investments in safety, which evolve dynamically over time. The methodology has been applied in modeling the two types of common AEs: pressure ulcers and vascular-catheter-associated infection, and the models have been validated with eight years of clinical data and use of expert opinion.

A Model of BGA Thermal Fatigue Life Prediction Considering Load Sequence Effects.

Accurate testing history data is necessary for all fatigue life prediction approaches, but such data is always deficient especially for the microelectronic devices. Additionally, the sequence of the individual load cycle plays an important role in physical fatigue damage. However, most of the existing models based on the linear damage accumulation rule ignore the sequence effects. This paper proposes a thermal fatigue life prediction model for ball grid array (BGA) packages to take into consideration the load sequence effects. For the purpose of improving the availability and accessibility of testing data, a new failure criterion is discussed and verified by simulation and experimentation. The consequences for the fatigue underlying sequence load conditions are shown.

Bayesian treatment of model uncertainty for partially applicable models.

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models' performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.

Automatic inpainting scheme for video text detection and removal.

We present a two stage framework for automatic video text removal to detect and remove embedded video texts and fill-in their remaining regions by appropriate data. In the video text detection stage, text locations in each frame are found via an unsupervised clustering performed on the connected components produced by the stroke width transform (SWT). Since SWT needs an accurate edge map, we develop a novel edge detector which benefits from the geometric features revealed by the bandlet transform. Next, the motion patterns of the text objects of each frame are analyzed to localize video texts. The detected video text regions are removed, then the video is restored by an inpainting scheme. The proposed video inpainting approach applies spatio-temporal geometric flows extracted by bandlets to reconstruct the missing data. A 3D volume regularization algorithm, which takes advantage of bandlet bases in exploiting the anisotropic regularities, is introduced to carry out the inpainting task. The method does not need extra processes to satisfy visual consistency. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of both our proposed video text detection approach and the video completion technique, and consequently the entire automatic video text removal and restoration process.

Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis.

Bayesian methodology for model uncertainty using model performance data.

A simple and useful characterization of many predictive models is in terms of model structure and model parameters. Accordingly, uncertainties in model predictions arise from uncertainties in the values assumed by the model parameters (parameter uncertainty) and the uncertainties and errors associated with the structure of the model (model uncertainty). When assessing uncertainty one is interested in identifying, at some level of confidence, the range of possible and then probable values of the unknown of interest. All sources of uncertainty and variability need to be considered. Although parameter uncertainty assessment has been extensively discussed in the literature, model uncertainty is a relatively new topic of discussion by the scientific community, despite being often the major contributor to the overall uncertainty. This article describes a Bayesian methodology for the assessment of model uncertainties, where models are treated as sources of information on the unknown of interest. The general framework is then specialized for the case where models provide point estimates about a single-valued unknown, and where information about models are available in form of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous performance data (pairs of experimental observations and model predictions). Several example applications for physical models used in fire risk analysis are also provided.