Incentives to Stimulate European Wheat Farmers to Adapt Their Fusarium Species Mycotoxin Management.

Fusarium species infection in wheat can lead to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) and contamination with mycotoxins. To fully exploit more recent insights into FHB and mycotoxin management, farmers might need to adapt their agronomic management, which can be stimulated through incentives. This study aimed to identify incentives to stimulate European farmers to adapt their agronomic management to reduce FHB and related mycotoxins in wheat. A questionnaire was distributed among 224 wheat farmers from Italy, the Netherlands, Serbia, and the United Kingdom. Using the respondents' data, Bayesian Network modelling was applied to estimate the probability that farmers would adapt their current agronomic management under eight different incentives given the conditions set by their farm and farmer characteristics. Results show that most farmers would adapt their current agronomic management under the incentives "paid extra when wheat contains low levels of mycotoxins" and "wheat is tested for the presence of mycotoxins for free". The most effective incentive depended on farm and farmer characteristics, such as country, crop type, size of arable land, soil type, education, and mycotoxin knowledge. Insights into the farmer characteristics related to incentives can help stakeholders in the wheat supply chain, such as farmer cooperatives and the government, to design tailor-made incentive plans.

Impact of One-Health framework on vaccination cost-effectiveness: A case study of rabies in Ethiopia.

Livestock losses due to rabies and health and the corresponding benefits of controlling the disease are not often considered when the cost-effectiveness of rabies control is evaluated. In this research, assessed the benefits of applying a One Health perspective that includes these losses to the case of canine rabies vaccination in Ethiopia. We constructed a dynamic epidemiological model of rabies transmission. The model was fit to district-specific data on human rabies exposures and canine demography for two districts with distinct agro-ecologies. The epidemiological model was coupled with human and livestock economic outcomes to predict the health and economic impacts under a range of vaccination scenarios. The model indicates that human exposures, human deaths, and rabies-related livestock losses would decrease monotonically with increasing vaccination coverage. In the rural district, all vaccination scenarios were found to be cost-saving compared to the status quo of no vaccination, as more money could be saved by preventing livestock losses than would be required to fund the vaccination campaigns. Vaccination coverages of 70% and 80% were identified as most likely to provide the greatest net health benefits at the WHO cost-effectiveness threshold over a period of 5 years, in urban and rural districts respectively. Shorter time frames led to recommendations for higher coverage in both districts, as did even a minor threat of rabies re-introduction. Exclusion of rabies-related livestock losses reduced the optimal vaccination coverage for the rural district to 50%. This study demonstrated the importance of including all economic consequences of zoonotic disease into control decisions. Analyses that include cattle and other rabies-susceptible livestock are likely better suited to many rural communities in Africa wishing to maximize the benefits of canine vaccination.

Estimating the burden of rabies in Ethiopia by tracing dog bite victims.

In developing countries where financial resources are limited and numerous interests compete, there is a need for quantitative data on the public health burden and costs of diseases to support intervention prioritization. This study aimed at estimating the health burden and post-exposure treatment (PET) costs of canine rabies in Ethiopia by an investigation of exposed human cases. Data on registered animal bite victims during the period of one year were collected from health centers in three districts, i.e. Bishoftu, Lemuna-bilbilo and Yabelo, to account for variation in urban highland and lowland areas. This data collection was followed by an extensive case search for unregistered victims in the same districts as the registered cases. Victims were visited and questioned on their use of PET, incurred treatment costs and the behavioral manifestations of the animal that had bitten them. Based on the collected data PET costs were evaluated by financial accounting and the health burden was estimated in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). In total 655 animal bite cases were traced of which 96.5% was caused by dog bites. 73.6% of the biting dogs were suspected to be potentially rabid dog. Annual suspected rabid dog exposures were estimated per evaluated urban, rural highland and rural lowland district at, respectively, 135, 101 and 86 bites, which led, respectively, to about 1, 4 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population. In the same district order average costs per completed PET equaled to 23, 31 and 40 USD, which was significantly higher in rural districts. Extrapolation of the district results to the national level indicated an annual estimate of approximately 3,000 human deaths resulting in about 194,000 DALYs per year and 97,000 exposed persons requiring on average 2 million USD treatment costs per year countrywide. These estimations of the burden of rabies to the Ethiopian society provide decision makers insights into the potential benefits of implementing effective interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of mass dog rabies vaccination strategies to reduce human health burden in Flores Island, Indonesia.

The cost-effectiveness of different mass dog rabies vaccination strategies, defined as the costs per year of life lost (YLL) averted was evaluated for a period of 10 years by means of a dynamic simulation study for a typical village on Flores Island. In the base strategy (no dog vaccination and no post-exposure treatment (PET) of human bite cases), the model showed that the introduction of the virus by one infectious dog into an isolated village with 1500 inhabitants and 400 dogs resulted in 881 YLLs during a 10-year simulation period, which is equivalent to 30 human rabies cases. An annual dog vaccination campaign with a coverage of 70% using a short-acting vaccine saved 832 YLLs, while the cumulative costs for the public sector were US$3646 or US$4.38 per YLL averted. Switching to a long-acting vaccine, the annual vaccination strategies with a coverage of 50% (AV_156_50) or 70% (AV_156_70) reduced the baseline YLLs from 881 to respectively 78 and 26 YLLs with cumulative costs of US$3716 and US$2264 or US$4.63 and US$2.65 per YLL averted, respectively. In general, dog vaccination was more cost-effective than PET alone (US$2.65-4.63 per YLL averted versus US$23.29 per YLL averted). Although a combination of PET with AV_156_70 was less cost-effective compared to AV_156_70 alone, this strategy was able to prevent all human deaths due to rabies. A combination of PET with annual vaccination using a short-acting vaccine at a coverage of 50% was far from being cost-effective, suggesting that the currently applied rabies control in Flores Island is not an efficient investment in reducing human rabies burden. An increased investment in either an increase in the current coverage or in a switch from the short-acting vaccine to the long-acting vaccine type would certainly pay off.

Dog rabies data reported to multinational organizations from Southern and Eastern African countries.

OBJECTIVE: Rabies is one of the viral diseases with the highest case fatality rate in humans. The main transmission route to humans is through bites, especially of infected dogs. Decisions on the allocation of resources to control and reduce the socio-economic impacts of rabies require reliable data. Several national, regional and international organizations have been gathering rabies data for more than a decade. The objective of this paper was to examine the consistencies in the number of dog rabies cases reported to different multinational organizations by Southern and Eastern African countries and to explore the presence of any time trend among the reported rabies data. RESULTS: Data was systematically extracted from the databases of the Southern and Eastern African Rabies Group-SEARG and the World Organization for Animal Health/World animal health information-OIE/WAHID. Despite differences in entities by which data have been reported to the two organisations, reported numbers were significantly correlated (Spearman's rho = 0.52, P < 0.001). The reported data did not indicate the presence of any trend in the number of reported dog rabies outbreaks. Inconsistencies in the reported numbers were observed between the databases, possibly due to the fact that human and animal health authorities report separately to the organisations involved in addition to the use of indefinite definitions of report categories set by report receiving organizations.

Incidence and economic impact of rabies in the cattle population of Ethiopia.

Rabies is a viral disease that can cause fatal encephalomyelitis both in animals and humans. Although incidences of the disease in cattle have been reported, insight in the economic impact of the disease in livestock remains limited. By affecting cattle in subsistence systems, rabies may have extensive economic impacts at household and country levels, in addition to the effects on human health. This study presents estimates of the direct economic impact of rabies at herd level in two representative subsistence cattle-farming systems in Ethiopia, the mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems. The economic impacts were assessed by a structured questionnaire administered to 532 cattle-owning households. These households were selected from four districts within two administrative zones; each zone representing a cattle production system. Rabies incidence rates of 21% and 11% at herd level were calculated for the mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems, respectively. The incidence rate at cattle level was the same in both systems., i.e. 2%. Herd-level incidence rates were higher in the mixed crop-livestock system than in the pastoral system (P<0.05). Average economic losses per herd due to rabies were estimated at 49 USD per year for the mixed-crop livestock system, and at 52 USD per year for the pastoral system; whereas in affected herds the average losses per year were 228 USD (range 48-1016 USD) in the mixed crop-livestock system, and 477 USD (range 173-1140 USD) in the pastoral system. The average herd-level economic losses were not significantly different between the farming systems; however once the herd was affected, the losses were significantly higher for the pastoral system than for the mixed crop-livestock system (P<0.01). The losses due to rabies in cattle are relatively high for pastoral households, due to their complete dependency on livestock for their livelihoods. Although the current estimates only account for the direct losses resulting from cattle mortality, the estimates already indicate the potential economic gains from a rabies intervention in the dog population, of which the benefits can be shared by the public health sector.

Intention of dog owners to participate in rabies control measures in Flores Island, Indonesia.

The success of a rabies control strategy depends on the commitment and collaboration of dog owners. In this study the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to identify the factors, which are associated with the intention of dog owners to participate in rabies control measures in the Manggarai and Sikka regencies of Flores Island, Indonesia. Questionnaires were administered to 450 dog owners from 44 randomly selected villages in the two regencies. Ninety-six percent of the dog owners intended to participate in a free-of-charge vaccination campaign. The intention decreased to 24% when dog owners were asked to pay a vaccination fee equal to the market price of the vaccine (Rp 18.000 per dose=US$2). Approximately 81% of the dog owners intended to keep their dogs inside their house or to leash them day and night during a period of at least three months in case of an incidence of rabies in the dog population within their village. Only 40% intended to cull their dogs in case of a rabies incident within their village. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, the attitude item 'vaccinating dogs reduces rabies cases in humans', and the perceived behavioural control items 'availability of time' and 'ability to confine dogs' were shown to be significantly associated with the intention to participate in a free-of-charge vaccination campaign. The attitude item 'culling dogs reduces rabies cases in humans' was significantly associated with the intention to participate in a culling measure. The attitude item 'leashing of dogs reduces human rabies cases' and perceived behavioural controls 'availability of time' and 'money to buy a leash' were associated with the intention to leash dogs during a rabies outbreak. As the attitude variables were often significantly associated with intention to participate in a rabies control measure, an educational rabies campaign focusing on the benefit of rabies control measures is expected to increase the intention of dog owners to participate in future rabies control measures. The significant association between perceived behavioural controls and intention to participate points to other relevant policy interventions. Providing dog owners with a skill to confine dogs and creating a subsidy program for the vaccine and leash costs, by involving non-governmental organisations or charitable organisations, may be useful policy interventions. Moreover appropriate time management, such as implementing vaccination campaigns during the weekend, could increase the intention to participate in vaccination campaigns, by relaxing the constraints on the availability of dog owners' time.

Uptake of rabies control measures by dog owners in Flores Island, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Rabies has been a serious public health threat in Flores Island, Indonesia since it was introduced in 1997. To control the disease, annual dog vaccination campaigns have been implemented to vaccinate all dogs free of charge. Nevertheless, the uptake rate of the vaccination campaigns has been low. The objective of this paper is to identify risk factors associated with the uptake of rabies control measures by individual dog owners in Flores Island. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 450 dog owners from 44 randomly selected villages in the Sikka and Manggarai regencies were interviewed regarding their socio-demographic factors, knowledge of rabies, and their uptake of rabies control measures. The majority of dog owners surveyed (>90%) knew that rabies is a fatal disease and that it can be prevented. Moreover, 68% of the dog owners had a high level of knowledge about available rabies control measures. Fifty-two percent of the dog owners had had at least one of their dogs vaccinated during the 2012 vaccination campaign. Vaccination uptake was significantly higher for dog owners who resided in Sikka, kept female dogs for breeding, had an income of more than one million Rupiah, and had easy access to their village. The most important reasons not to join the vaccination campaign were lack of information about the vaccination campaign schedule (40%) and difficulty to catch the dog during the vaccination campaign (37%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Dog owners in Flores Island had a high level of knowledge of rabies and its control, but this was not associated with uptake of the 2012 vaccination campaign. Geographical accessibility was one of the important factors influencing the vaccination uptake among dog owners. Targeted distribution of information on vaccination schedules and methods to catch and restrain dogs in those villages with poor accessibility may increase vaccination uptake in the future.

Review on dog rabies vaccination coverage in Africa: a question of dog accessibility or cost recovery?

BACKGROUND: Rabies still poses a significant human health problem throughout most of Africa, where the majority of the human cases results from dog bites. Mass dog vaccination is considered to be the most effective method to prevent rabies in humans. Our objective was to systematically review research articles on dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage in Africa in relation to dog accessibility and vaccination cost recovery arrangement (i.e.free of charge or owner charged). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A systematic literature search was made in the databases of CAB abstracts (EBSCOhost and OvidSP), Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Medline (EBSCOhost and OvidSP) and AJOL (African Journal Online) for peer reviewed articles on 1) rabies control, 2) dog rabies vaccination coverage and 3) dog demography in Africa. Identified articles were subsequently screened and selected using predefined selection criteria like year of publication (viz. ≥ 1990), type of study (cross sectional), objective(s) of the study (i.e. vaccination coverage rates, dog demographics and financial arrangements of vaccination costs), language of publication (English) and geographical focus (Africa). The selection process resulted in sixteen peer reviewed articles which were used to review dog demography and dog ownership status, and dog rabies vaccination coverage throughout Africa. The main review findings indicate that 1) the majority (up to 98.1%) of dogs in African countries are owned (and as such accessible), 2) puppies younger than 3 months of age constitute a considerable proportion (up to 30%) of the dog population and 3) male dogs are dominating in numbers (up to 3.6 times the female dog population). Dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage was compared between "free of charge" and "owner charged" vaccination schemes by the technique of Meta-analysis. Results indicate that the rabies vaccination coverage following a free of charge vaccination scheme (68%) is closer to the World Health Organization recommended coverage rate (70%) than the achieved coverage rate in owner-charged dog rabies vaccination schemes (18%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Most dogs in Africa are owned and accessible for parenteral vaccination against rabies if the campaign is performed "free of charge".

Framework for modelling economic impacts of invasive species, applied to pine wood nematode in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008-2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014-2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300-800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.

Financial evaluation of different vaccination strategies for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in The Netherlands in 2008.

BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in The Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of The Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.

A modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in the control of FMD epidemics.

Most studies on control strategies for contagious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) evaluate pre-defined control strategies and imply static decision-making during epidemic control. Such a static approach contradicts the dynamic nature of the decision-making process during epidemic control. This paper presents an integrated epidemic-economic modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in controlling FMD epidemics. This new modelling approach reflects ongoing uncertainty about epidemic growth during epidemic control and provides information required by a dynamic decision process. As demonstrated for a Dutch FMD-case, the modelling approach outperforms static evaluation of pre-fixed control strategies by: (1) providing guidance to decision-making during the entire control process; and (2) generating more realistic estimation of the costs of overreacting or underreacting in choosing control options.