Long-term prognostic scores may underestimate the risk of death in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in whom red cell distribution width is elevated.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is one of the key challenges for clinicians. Novel biomarkers aggregating several important pathophysiological pathways may modify the diagnostic discrimination of validated scores. The red cell distribution width (RDW) is a cheap and easily available measure of anisocytosis, and was shown to have a strong independent prognostic power in short- and medium­term prognosis in HFrEF. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to assess the prognostic power of RDW in optimally treated chronic HFrEF, and to investigate whether different RDW may impact the prognostic accuracy of validated long­term scores in HFrEF. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 551 patients at a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 54 (47-59) years, of whom 86.6% were men. The patients represented the median New York Heart Association class III (IQR, II-III), and ischemic etiology occurred in 56.6% of the cases. In all patients, RDW as a coefficient of variation was calculated, along with Meta­Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure Score (MAGGIC­HF) and Seattle Heart Failure Survival Model (SHFSM). RESULTS: The patients were followed for 5 years and all­cause mortality was assessed. We recorded 166 (30.1%) and 225 (40.8%) deaths at 3 and 5 years, respectively. Scores based on MAGGIC­HF and SHFSM algorithms for the respective prediction of 3- and 5­year mortality were calculated for each patient and compared with the observed mortality. There was a significant underestimation of mortality in the patients with RDW above 15.4% (reference values, 11.5%-14.5%), while in those with lower RDW SHFSM overestimated the actual risk. The excess mortality in the higher RDW group was confirmed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. CONCLUSIONS: The RDW has a strong prognostic value in chronic HFrEF, independently of the risk assessed by the MAGGIC­HF or the SHFSM score.

Ceruloplasmin, NT-proBNP, and Clinical Data as Risk Factors of Death or Heart Transplantation in a 1-Year Follow-Up of Heart Failure Patients.

We investigated whether the additional determination of ceruloplasmin (Cp) levels could improve the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in heart failure (HF) patients in a 1-year follow-up. Cp and NT-proBNP levels and clinical and laboratory parameters were assessed simultaneously at baseline in 741 HF patients considered as possible heart transplant recipients. The primary endpoint (EP) was a composite of all-cause death (non-transplant patients) or heart transplantation during one year of follow-up. Using a cut-off value of 35.9 mg/dL for Cp and 3155 pg/mL for NT-proBNP (top interquartile range), a univariate Cox regression analysis showed that Cp (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.086; 95% confidence interval (95% CI, 1.462-2.975)), NT-proBNP (HR = 3.221; 95% CI (2.277-4.556)), and the top quartile of both Cp and NT-proBNP (HR = 4.253; 95% CI (2.795-6.471)) were all risk factors of the primary EP. The prognostic value of these biomarkers was demonstrated in a multivariate Cox regression model using the top Cp and NT-proBNP concentration quartiles combined (HR = 2.120; 95% CI (1.233-3.646)). Lower left ventricular ejection fraction, VO2 max, lack of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker therapy, and nonimplantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator were also independent risk factors of a poor outcome. The combined evaluation of Cp and NT-proBNP had advantages over separate NT-proBNP and Cp assessment in selecting a group with a high 1-year risk. Thus multi-biomarker assessment can improve risk stratification in HF patients.