Mid-trimester sonographic cervical consistency index to predict spontaneous preterm birth in a low-risk population.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effectiveness of mid-trimester sonographic cervical consistency index (CCI) for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) in low-risk pregnancies and to compare its performance with that of mid-trimester sonographic cervical-length (CL) measurement. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of women with a singleton pregnancy examined by ultrasound at 19 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks' gestation. All women underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination of the cervix, but CCI and CL were measured, offline, only in women without a risk factor for sPTB. Staff and participants were blinded to CL and CCI results. CCI was obtained by calculating the ratio between the anteroposterior diameter of the uterine cervix at maximum compression and at rest. The primary outcome was prediction of sPTB before 37 + 0 weeks. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were produced and sensitivity and specificity were calculated for the optimal cut-off based on the ROC curve and for the 1st , 5th and 10th centiles of CCI and CL. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots were used to estimate intra- and interobserver agreement and reliability for measurement of CCI and CL. RESULTS: Of the 749 women who underwent ultrasound examination of the cervix, 532 were included for analysis. The rates of sPTB before 37 + 0 and before 34 + 0 weeks were 4.1% (22/532) and 1.3% (7/532), respectively. The rates of short cervix < 25 mm and ≤ 20 mm were 0.9% (5/532) and 0.4% (2/532), respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) with regard to predicting sPTB before 37 + 0 weeks was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75-0.93) for CCI compared with 0.68 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) for CL (P = 0.03). The optimal cut-off based on the ROC curve was 64.6% for CCI (sensitivity, 77.3%; specificity, 82.7%) and that for CL was 37.9 mm (sensitivity, 72.7%; specificity, 61.2%). The AUC with regard to predicting sPTB before 34 + 0 weeks was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.71-1.0) for CCI compared with 0.71 (95% CI, 0.47-0.94) for CL (P = 0.25). The optimal cut-off based on the ROC curve was 63.6% for CCI (sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 84.0%) and that for CL was 37.9 mm (sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 61.3%). Intraobserver ICC was > 0.90 both for CCI and CL, while interobserver ICC was 0.89 for CCI and 0.90 for CL. CONCLUSIONS: Second-trimester CCI is a better predictor of sPTB < 37 weeks in low-risk pregnancies than is CL. External validation is needed as well as studies assessing the value of CCI as a screening tool in unselected and high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantitative analysis of cervical texture by ultrasound in mid-pregnancy and association with spontaneous preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE: New tools are required to improve the identification of women who are at increased risk for spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). Quantitative analysis of tissue texture on ultrasound has been used to extract robust features from the ultrasound image to detect subtle changes in its microstructure. This may be applied to the cervix. The aim of this study was to determine if there is an association between quantitative analysis of cervical texture (CTx) on mid-trimester ultrasound and sPTB < 37 + 0 weeks' gestation. METHODS: This was a single-center nested case-control study of a prospective cohort of 677 consecutive women with singleton pregnancy assessed between 19 + 0 and 24 + 6 weeks' gestation. Women at increased risk for sPTB were included unless they received treatment to prevent sPTB. Women who delivered < 37 + 0 weeks (sPTB) were considered as cases and were matched in a 1: 10 ratio with randomly selected contemporary controls who delivered at term. For each woman, one ultrasound image of the cervix was obtained for which quality was assessed, cervical length (CL) measured offline and a region of interest in the midportion of the anterior cervical lip delineated for use in local binary patterns analysis of CTx. A learning algorithm was developed to obtain the combination of CTx features best associated with sPTB based on feature transformation and discriminant analysis regression. The ability of the learning algorithm to predict sPTB was evaluated using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique, which produced a CTx-based score for each participant. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were produced and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated for the optimal cut-off based on the ROC curve. The results were compared with those obtained for CL. Investigators studying the images were blinded to pregnancy outcome at all times. RESULTS: Images from 310 women (27 cases and 283 controls) were of sufficient quality and included in the study. Median CTx-based score was significantly lower in cases compared with controls (-1.01 vs -0.07, P ≤ 0.0001). CTx-based score maintained its significant association with sPTB after adjusting for possible confounders (history of sPTB, conization or Müllerian malformation, and CL < 25 mm). CTx-based score was a better predictor of sPTB (AUC, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.66-0.87) than was CL (AUC, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.47-0.72) (P = 0.03). Median CL was similar for cases and controls (37.7 vs 38.6 mm, P = 0.26), although cases were more likely to have CL < 25 mm (18.5% vs 0.4%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Quantitative analysis of CTx enables the extraction of information relevant to sPTB from ultrasound images to generate a CTx-based score that is associated independently with sPTB. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.