Progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets among persons aged 50 and older living with HIV in 13 African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Achieving optimal HIV outcomes, as measured by global 90-90-90 targets, that is awareness of HIV-positive status, receipt of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy among aware and viral load (VL) suppression among those on ARVs, respectively, is critical. However, few data from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are available on older people (50+) living with HIV (OPLWH). We examined 90-90-90 progress by age, 15-49 (as a comparison) and 50+ years, with further analyses among 50+ (55-59, 60-64, 65+ vs. 50-54), in 13 countries (Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). METHODS: Using data from nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessments, conducted between 2015and 2019, participants from randomly selected households provided demographic and clinical information and whole blood specimens for HIV serology, VL and ARV testing. Survey weighted outcomes were estimated for 90-90-90 targets. Country-specific Poisson regression models examined 90-90-90 variation among OPLWH age strata. RESULTS: Analyses included 24,826 HIV-positive individuals (15-49 years: 20,170; 50+ years: 4656). The first, second and third 90 outcomes were achieved in 1, 10 and 5 countries, respectively, by those aged 15-49, while OPLWH achieved outcomes in 3, 13 and 12 countries, respectively. Among those aged 15-49, women were more likely to achieve 90-90-90 targets than men; however, among OPLWH, men were more likely to achieve first and third 90 targets than women, with second 90 achievement being equivalent. Country-specific 90-90-90 regression models among OPLWH demonstrated minimal variation by age stratum across 13 countries. Among OLPWH, no first 90 target differences were noted by age strata; three countries varied in the second 90 by older age strata but not in a consistent direction; one country showed higher achievement of the third 90 in an older age stratum. CONCLUSIONS: While OPLWH in these 13 countries were slightly more likely than younger people to be aware of their HIV-positive status (first 90), this target was not achieved in most countries. However, OPLWH achieved treatment (second 90) and VL suppression (third 90) targets in more countries than PLWH <50. Findings support expanded HIV testing, prevention and treatment services to meet ongoing OPLWH health needs in SSA.

Food insecurity and the risk of HIV acquisition: findings from population-based surveys in six sub-Saharan African countries (2016-2017).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential bidirectional relationship between food insecurity and HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Nationally representative HIV impact assessment household-based surveys. SETTING: Zambia, Eswatini, Lesotho, Uganda and Tanzania and Namibia. PARTICIPANTS: 112 955 survey participants aged 15-59 years with HIV and recency test results. MEASURES: Recent HIV infection (within 6 months) classified using the HIV-1 limited antigen avidity assay, in participants with an unsuppressed viral load (>1000 copies/mL) and no detectable antiretrovirals; severe food insecurity (SFI) defined as having no food in the house ≥three times in the past month. RESULTS: Overall, 10.3% of participants lived in households reporting SFI. SFI was most common in urban, woman-headed households, and in people with chronic HIV infection. Among women, SFI was associated with a twofold increase in risk of recent HIV infection (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 2.08, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.97). SFI was also associated with transactional sex (aRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.41), a history of forced sex (aRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.66) and condom-less sex with a partner of unknown or positive HIV status (aRR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.14) in all women, and intergenerational sex (partner ≥10 years older) in women aged 15-24 years (aRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.46). Recent receipt of food support was protective against HIV acquisition (aRR 0.36, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.88). CONCLUSION: SFI increased risk for HIV acquisition in women by twofold. Heightened food insecurity during climactic extremes could imperil HIV epidemic control, and food support to women with SFI during these events could reduce HIV transmission.

Pretreatment Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Drug Resistance Among Treatment-Naive Infants Newly Diagnosed With HIV in 2016 in Namibia: Results of a Nationally Representative Study.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends routine surveillance of pretreatment human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance (HIVDR) in children <18 months of age diagnosed with HIV through early infant diagnosis (EID). In 2016, 262 children <18 months of age were diagnosed with HIV in Namibia through EID. Levels of HIVDR in this population are unknown. Methods: In 2016, Namibia surveyed pretreatment HIVDR among children aged <18 months following WHO guidance. Reverse transcriptase, protease, and integrase regions of HIV-1 were genotyped from remnant dried blood spot specimens from all infants diagnosed with HIV in Namibia in 2016. HIVDR was predicted using the Stanford HIVdb algorithm. Results: Of 262 specimens genotyped, 198 HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase sequences and 118 HIV-1 integrase sequences were successfully amplified and analyzed. The prevalence of efavirenz/nevirapine (EFV/NVP), abacavir (ABC), zidovudine, lamivudine/emtricitabine (3TC/FTC), and tenofovir (TDF) resistance was 62.6%, 17.7%, 5.6%, 15.7%, and 10.1%, respectively. No integrase inhibitor resistance was detected. Conclusions: The high level of EFV/NVP resistance is unsurprising; however, levels of ABC and TDF resistance are among the highest observed to date in infants in sub-Saharan Africa. The absence of resistance to dolutegravir (DTG) is reassuring but underscores the need to further study the impact of ABC and 3TC/FTC resistance on pediatric protease inhibitor- and DTG-based regimens and accelerate access to other antiretroviral drugs. Results underscore the need for antiretroviral therapy optimization and prompt management of high viral loads in infants and pregnant and breastfeeding women.

Associations Between Mobility, Food Insecurity, and Transactional Sex Among Women in Cohabitating Partnerships: An Analysis From 6 African Countries 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: Mobile women are at risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, although we lack evidence for HIV risk among women in mobile partnerships, especially in the context of household food insecurity, a growing concern in the region. SETTING: Women aged 15-59 years with a cohabitating male partner who participated in population-based HIV impact assessment surveys in Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. METHODS: We evaluated the association between women's and their partner's mobility (being away from home for more than 1 month or staying elsewhere) and transactional sex (selling sex or receiving money or goods in exchange for sex). We examined associations for effect measure modification by food insecurity level in the household in the past month. We used survey-weighted logistic regression, pooled and by country, adjusting for individual, partner, and household-level variables. RESULTS: Among women with a cohabitating male partner, 8.0% reported transactional sex, ranging from 2.7% in Lesotho to 13.4% in Uganda. Women's mobility [aOR 1.35 (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.68)], but not their partner's mobility [aOR 0.91 (0.74-1.12)], was associated with transactional sex. Food insecurity was associated with transactional sex independent of mobility [aOR 1.29 (1.10-1.52)]. Among those who were food insecure, mobility was not associated with increased odds of transactional sex. CONCLUSION: Food insecurity and women's mobility each increased the odds of transactional sex. Because transactional sex is associated with HIV risk, prevention programs can address the needs of mobile and food-insecure women, including those in cohabitating relationships.

Predictors of loss to follow-up from HIV antiretroviral therapy in Namibia.

Despite progress on population-level HIV viral suppression, unknown outcomes amongst people who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries, commonly referred to as loss to follow-up (LTFU), remains a barrier. The mean global estimate of LTFU is 20%, exceeding the World Health Organization target of <15%. Pervasive predictors associated with LTFU include younger age, low body mass index, low CD4 count, advanced HIV clinical stage and certain ART regimens. In Namibia, ART use by eligible individuals exceeds 85%, surpassing the global average. Nonetheless, LTFU remains a barrier to achieving viral suppression and requires research to elucidate context-specific factors. An observational cohort study was conducted in Namibia in 2012 by administering surveys to individuals who presented for HIV care and initiated ART for the first time. Additional data were collected from routine medical data monitoring systems. Participants classified as LTFU at 12 months were traced to confirm their status. Predictors of LTFU were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Of those who presented consecutively to initiate ART, 524 were identified as eligible to enroll in the study, 497 enrolled, and 474 completed the baseline questionnaire. The cohort had mean age 36 years, 39% were male, mean CD4 cell count 222 cells/mm3, 17% were WHO HIV clinical stage III-IV, and 14% started efavirenz-based regimens. Tracing participants classified as LTFU yielded a re-categorization from 27.8% (n = 132) to 14.3% (n = 68) LTFU. In the final multivariable model, factors associated with confirmed LTFU status were: younger age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.02); male sex (OR 2.34, CI 1.34-4.06, p = 0.003); difficulty leaving work or home to attend clinic (OR 2.55, CI 1.40-4.65, p = 0.002); and baseline efavirenz-based regimen (OR 2.35, CI 1.22-4.51, p = 0.01). Interventions to reduce LTFU should therefore target young men, particularly those who report difficulty leaving work or home to attend clinic and are on an efavirenz-based regimen.

Migration in Namibia and its association with HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In the 21st century, understanding how population migration impacts human health is critical. Namibia has high migration rates and HIV prevalence, but little is known about how these intersect. We examined the association between migration and HIV-related outcomes using data from the 2017 Namibia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (NAMPHIA). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The NAMPHIA survey selected a nationally representative sample of adults in 2017. All adults aged 15-64 years were invited to complete an interview and home-based HIV test. Recent infection (<130 days) was measured using HIV-1 LAg avidity combined with viral load (>1000 copies/mL) and antiretroviral analyte data. Awareness of HIV status and antiretroviral use were based on self-report and/or detectable antiretrovirals in blood. Viremia was defined as having a viral load ≥1000 copies/mL, including all participants in the denominator regardless of serostatus. We generated community viremia values as a weighted proportion at the EA level, excluding those classified as recently infected. Significant migrants were those who had lived outside their current region or away from home >one month in the past three years. Recent cross-community in-migrants were those who had moved to the community two years ago to determine the association of migration and timing with recent infection or viral load suppression (VLS). All proportions are weighted. Of eligible adults, we had HIV results and migration data on 9,625 (83.9%) of 11,474 women and 7,291 (73.0%) of 9,990 men. Most respondents (62.5%) reported significant migration. Of cross-community in-migrants, 15.3% were recent. HIV prevalence was 12.6% and did not differ by migration status. Population VLS was 77.4%. Recent cross-community in-migration was associated with recent HIV infection (aOR: 4.01, 95% CI 0.99-16.22) after adjusting for community viremia. Significant migration (aOR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.97) and recent cross-community in-migration (aOR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.35-0.92) were associated with lower VLS, primarily due to lack of awareness of HIV infection. The study was limited by lack of precise data on trajectory of migration. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a high population-level VLS, Namibia still has migrant populations that are not accessing effective treatment for HIV. Targeting migrants with effective prevention and testing programs in communities with viremia could enable further epidemic control.

Improving Sampling Efficiency for Determining Pediatric HIV Prevalence in National Surveys: Evidence From 8 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of mother-to-child HIV transmission through population-based surveys requires large sample sizes because of low HIV prevalence among children. We estimate potential improvements in sampling efficiency resulting from a targeted sample design. SETTING: Eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa with completed Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys as of 2017. METHODS: The PHIA surveys used a geographically stratified 2-stage sample design with households sampled from randomly selected census enumeration areas. Children (0-14 years of age) were eligible for HIV testing within a random subsample of households (usually 50%). Estimates of child HIV prevalence in each country were calculated using jackknife replicate weights. We compared sample sizes and precision achieved using this design with a 2-phase disproportionate sample design applied to strata defined by maternal HIV status and mortality. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among children ranged from 0.4% (95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 0.6) in Tanzania to 2.8% (95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 3.4) in Eswatini with achieved relative standard errors between 11% and 21%. The expected precision improved in the targeted design in all countries included in the analysis, with proportionate reductions in mean squared error ranging from 27% in Eswatini to 61% in Tanzania, assuming an equal sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based surveys of adult HIV prevalence that also measure child HIV prevalence should consider targeted sampling of children to reduce required sample size, increase precision, and increase the number of positive children tested. The findings from the PHIA surveys can be used as baseline data for informing future sample designs.

National-level effectiveness of ART to prevent early mother to child transmission of HIV in Namibia.

BACKGROUND: Namibia introduced the prevention of mother to child HIV transmission (MTCT) program in 2002 and lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant women (option B-plus) in 2013. We sought to quantify MTCT measured at 4-12 weeks post-delivery. METHODS: During Aug 2014-Feb 2015, we recruited a nationally representative sample of 1040 pairs of mother and infant aged 4-12 weeks at routine immunizations in 60 public health clinics using two stage sampling approach. Of these, 864 HIV exposed infants had DNA-PCR HIV test results available. We defined an HIV exposed infant if born to an HIV-positive mother with documented status or diagnosed at enrollment using rapid HIV tests. Dried Blood Spots samples from HIV exposed infants were tested for HIV. Interview data and laboratory results were collected on smartphones and uploaded to a central database. We measured MTCT prevalence at 4-12 weeks post-delivery and evaluated associations between infant HIV infection and maternal and infant characteristics including maternal treatment and infant prophylaxis. All statistical analyses accounted for the survey design. RESULTS: Based on the 864 HIV exposed infants with test results available, nationally weighted early MTCT measured at 4-12 weeks post-delivery was 1.74% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00%-3.01%). Overall, 62% of mothers started ART pre-conception, 33.6% during pregnancy, 1.2% post-delivery and 3.2% never received ART. Mothers who started ART before pregnancy and during pregnancy had low MTCT prevalence, 0.78% (95% CI: 0.31%-1.96%) and 0.98% (95% CI: 0.33%-2.91%), respectively. MTCT rose to 4.13% (95% CI: 0.54%-25.68%) when the mother started ART after delivery and to 11.62% (95% CI: 4.07%-28.96%) when she never received ART. The lowest MTCT of 0.76% (95% CI: 0.36% - 1.61%) was achieved when mother received ART and ARV prophylaxis within 72hrs for infant and highest 22.32% (95%CI: 2.78% -74.25%) when neither mother nor infant received ARVs. After adjusting for mother's age, maternal ART (Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.03-0.29) and infant ARV prophylaxis (PR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.10-0.998) remained strong predictors of HIV transmission. CONCLUSION: As of 2015, Namibia achieved MTCT of 1.74%, measured at 4-12 weeks post-delivery. Women already on ART pre-conception had the lowest prevalence of MTCT emphasizing the importance of early HIV diagnosis and treatment initiation before pregnancy. Studies are needed to measure MTCT and maternal HIV seroconversion during breastfeeding.

HIV Prevalence, Risk Factors for Infection, and Uptake of Prevention, Testing, and Treatment among Female Sex Workers in Namibia.

BACKGROUND: In most settings, Female Sex Workers (FSW) bear a disproportionate burden of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) disease worldwide. Representative data to inform the development of behavioral and biomedical interventions for FSW in Namibia have not been published. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to measure HIV prevalence, identify risk factors for infection, and describe uptake of prevention, testing, and treatment among FSW in Namibia. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional surveys using Respondent-driven Sampling (RDS) in the Namibian cities of Katima Mulilo, Oshikango, Swakopmund/Walvis Bay, and Windhoek. Participating FSW completed behavioral questionnaires and rapid HIV testing. RESULTS: City-specific ranges of key indicators were: HIV prevalence (31.0-52.3%), reached by prevention programs in the past 12 months (46.9-73.6%), condom use at last sex with commercial (82.1-91.1%) and non-commercial (87.0-94.2%) partners, and tested for HIV within past 12 months or already aware of HIV-positive serostatus (56.9-82.1%). Factors associated with HIV infection varied by site and included: older age, having multiple commercial or non-commercial sex partners, unemployment, being currently out of school, and lower education level. Among HIV-positive FSW, 57.1% were aware of their HIV-positive serostatus and 33.7% were on antiretroviral treatment. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate extremely high HIV prevalence and low levels of case identification and treatment among FSW in Namibia. Our results, which are the first representative community-based estimates among FSW in Namibia, can inform the scale-up of interventions to reduce the risk for HIV acquisition and onward transmission, including treatment as prevention and pre-exposure prophylaxis.

High levels of HIV drug resistance among adults failing second-line antiretroviral therapy in Namibia.

To support optimal third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) selection in Namibia, we investigated the prevalence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) at time of failure of second-line ART. A cross-sectional study was conducted between August 2016 and February 2017. HIV-infected people ≥15 years of age with confirmed virological failure while receiving ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r)-based second-line ART were identified at 15 high-volume ART clinics representing over >70% of the total population receiving second-line ART. HIVDR genotyping of dried blood spots obtained from these individuals was performed using standard population sequencing methods. The Stanford HIVDR algorithm was used to identify sequences with predicted resistance; genotypic susceptibility scores for potential third-line regimens were calculated. Two hundred thirty-eight individuals were enrolled; 57.6% were female. The median age and duration on PI/r-based ART at time of enrolment were 37 years and 3.46 years, respectively. 97.5% received lopinavir/ritonavir-based regimens. The prevalence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), and PI/r resistance was 50.6%, 63.1%, and 13.1%, respectively. No significant association was observed between HIVDR prevalence and age or sex. This study demonstrates high levels of NRTI and NNRTI resistance and moderate levels of PI resistance in people receiving PI/r-based second-line ART in Namibia. Findings underscore the need for objective and inexpensive measures of adherence to identify those in need of intensive adherence counselling, routine viral load monitoring to promptly detect virological failure, and HIVDR genotyping to optimize selection of third-line drugs in Namibia.

Rates and Correlates of HIV Incidence in Namibia's Zambezi Region From 2014 to 2016: Sentinel, Community-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Direct measures of HIV incidence are needed to assess the population-level impact of prevention programs but are scarcely available in the subnational epidemic hotspots of sub-Saharan Africa. We created a sentinel HIV incidence cohort within a community-based program that provided home-based HIV testing to all residents of Namibia's Zambezi region, where approximately 24% of the adult population was estimated to be living with HIV. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate HIV incidence, detect correlates of HIV acquisition, and assess the feasibility of the sentinel, community-based approach to HIV incidence surveillance in a subnational epidemic hotspot. METHODS: Following the program's initial home-based testing (December 2014-July 2015), we purposefully selected 10 clusters of 60 to 70 households each and invited residents who were HIV negative and aged ≥15 years to participate in the cohort. Consenting participants completed behavioral interviews and a second HIV test approximately 1 year later (March-September 2016). We used Poisson models to calculate HIV incidence rates between baseline and follow-up and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to assess the correlates of seroconversion. RESULTS: Among 1742 HIV-negative participants, 1624 (93.23%) completed follow-up. We observed 26 seroconversions in 1954 person-years (PY) of follow-up, equating to an overall incidence rate of 1.33 per 100 PY (95% CI 0.91-1.95). Among women, the incidence was 1.55 per 100 PY (95% CI 1.12-2.17) and significantly higher among those aged 15 to 24 years and residing in rural areas (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 4.26, 95% CI 1.39-13.13; P=.01), residing in the Ngweze suburb of Katima Mulilo city (aHR 2.34, 95% CI 1.25-4.40; P=.01), who had no prior HIV testing in the year before cohort enrollment (aHR 3.38, 95% CI 1.04-10.95; P=.05), and who had engaged in transactional sex (aHR 17.64, 95% CI 2.88-108.14; P=.02). Among men, HIV incidence was 1.05 per 100 PY (95% CI 0.54-2.31) and significantly higher among those aged 40 to 44 years (aHR 13.04, 95% CI 5.98-28.41; P<.001) and had sought HIV testing outside the study between baseline and follow-up (aHR 8.28, 95% CI 1.39-49.38; P=.02). No seroconversions occurred among persons with HIV-positive partners on antiretroviral treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly three decades into Namibia's generalized HIV epidemic, these are the first estimates of HIV incidence for its highest prevalence region. By creating a sentinel incidence cohort from the infrastructure of an existing community-based testing program, we were able to characterize current transmission patterns, corroborate known risk factors for HIV acquisition, and provide insight into the efficacy of prevention interventions in a subnational epidemic hotspot. This study demonstrates an efficient and scalable framework for longitudinal HIV incidence surveillance that can be implemented in diverse sentinel sites and populations.

Increasing levels of pretreatment HIV drug resistance and safety concerns for dolutegravir use in women of reproductive age.

: Use of dolutegravir-based first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in response to rising levels of pretreatment HIV drug resistance (PDR) to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) may be limited, given safety concerns for birth defects in women of child-bearing potential. Pooled data from 11 nationally representative surveys show that NNRTI PDR in women is nearly twice that in men, exceeding 10% in 8 of 11 countries monitored, suggesting the urgent need for a non-NNRTI-based ART regimen in this population.

National health information systems for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

OBJECTIVES: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require data-driven public health action. There are limited publications on national health information systems that continuously generate health data. Given the need to develop these systems, we summarised their current status in low-income and middle-income countries. SETTING: The survey team jointly developed a questionnaire covering policy, planning, legislation and organisation of case reporting, patient monitoring and civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. From January until May 2017, we administered the questionnaire to key informants in 51 Centers for Disease Control country offices. Countries were aggregated for descriptive analyses in Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: Key informants in 15 countries responded to the questionnaire. Several key informants did not answer all questions, leading to different denominators across questions. The Ministry of Health coordinated case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 93% (14/15), 93% (13/14) and 53% (8/15) of responding countries, respectively. Domestic financing supported case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 86% (12/14), 75% (9/12) and 92% (11/12) of responding countries, respectively. The most common uses for system-generated data were to guide programme response in 100% (15/15) of countries for case reporting, to calculate service coverage in 92% (12/13) of countries for patient monitoring and to estimate the national burden of disease in 83% (10/12) of countries for CRVS. Systems with an electronic component were being used for case reporting, patient monitoring, birth registration and death registration in 87% (13/15), 92% (11/12), 77% (10/13) and 64% (7/11) of responding countries, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Most responding countries have a solid foundation for policy, planning, legislation and organisation of health information systems. Further evaluation is needed to assess the quality of data generated from systems. Periodic evaluations may be useful in monitoring progress in strengthening and harmonising these systems over time.

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Namibia Using a Respondent-Driven Sampling Adjustment to the Reverse Tracking Method: A Novel Approach.

BACKGROUND: Key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), are at a disproportionately high risk for HIV infection. Estimates of the size of these populations serve as denominator data to inform HIV prevention and treatment programming and are necessary for the equitable allocation of limited public health resources. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to present the respondent-driven sampling (RDS) adjusted reverse tracking method (RTM; RadR), a novel population size estimation approach that combines venue mapping data with RDS data to estimate the population size, adjusted for double counting and nonattendance biases. METHODS: We used data from a 2014 RDS survey of FSWs in Windhoek and Katima Mulilo, Namibia, to demonstrate the RadR method. Information from venue mapping and enumeration from the survey formative assessment phase were combined with survey-based venue-inquiry questions to estimate population size, adjusting for double counting, and FSWs who do not attend venues. RadR estimates were compared with the official population size estimates, published by the Namibian Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS), and with the unadjusted RTM. RESULTS: Using the RadR method, we estimated 1552 (95% simulation interval, SI, 1101-2387) FSWs in Windhoek and 453 (95% SI: 336-656) FSWs in Katima Mulilo. These estimates were slightly more conservative than the MoHSS estimates-Windhoek: 3000 (1800-3400); Katima Mulilo: 800 (380-2000)-though not statistically different. We also found 75 additional venues in Windhoek and 59 additional venues in Katima Mulilo identified by RDS participants' responses that were not detected during the initial mapping exercise. CONCLUSIONS: The RadR estimates were comparable with official estimates from the MoHSS. The RadR method is easily integrated into RDS studies, producing plausible population size estimates, and can also validate and update key population maps for outreach and venue-based sampling.

Low Case Finding Among Men and Poor Viral Load Suppression Among Adolescents Are Impeding Namibia's Ability to Achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 Targets.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, Namibia implemented an Acceleration Plan to address the high burden of HIV (13.0% adult prevalence and 216 311 people living with HIV [PLHIV]) and achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020. We provide an update on Namibia's overall progress toward achieving these targets and estimate the percent reduction in HIV incidence since 2010. METHODS: Data sources include the 2013 Namibia Demographic and Health Survey (2013 NDHS), the national electronic patient monitoring system, and laboratory data from the Namibian Institute of Pathology. These sources were used to estimate (1) the percentage of PLHIV who know their HIV status, (2) the percentage of PLHIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART), (3) the percentage of patients on ART with suppressed viral loads, and (4) the percent reduction in HIV incidence. RESULTS: In the 2013 NDHS, knowledge of HIV status was higher among HIV-positive women 91.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.4%-93.7%) than HIV-positive men 82.5% (95% CI, 78.1%-86.1%). At the end of 2016, an estimated 88.3% (95% CI, 86.3%-90.1%) of PLHIV knew their status, and 165 939 (76.7%) PLHIV were active on ART. The viral load suppression rate among those on ART was 87%, and it was highest among ≥20-year-olds (90%) and lowest among 15-19-year-olds (68%). HIV incidence has declined by 21% since 2010. CONCLUSIONS: With 76.7% of PLHIV on ART and 87% of those on ART virally suppressed, Namibia is on track to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020. Innovative strategies are needed to improve HIV case identification among men and adherence to ART among youth.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance among adults initiating ART in Namibia.

Background: Continued use of standardized, first-line ART containing NNRTIs and NRTIs may contribute to ongoing emergence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) in Namibia. Methods: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey was conducted during 2015-16 to estimate the prevalence of significant pretreatment HIV drug resistance (PDR) and viral load (VL) suppression rates 6-12 months after initiating standardized first-line ART. Consenting adult patients (≥18 years) initiating ART were interviewed about prior antiretroviral drug (ARV) exposure and underwent resistance testing using dried blood spot samples. PDR was defined as mutations causing low-, intermediate- and high-level resistance to ARVs according to the 2014 WHO Surveillance of HIV Drug Resistance in Adults Initiating ART. The prevalence of PDR was described by patient characteristics, ARV exposure and VL results. Results were weighted to be nationally representative. Results: Successful genotyping was performed for 381 specimens; 144 (36.6%) specimens demonstrated HIVDR, of which 54 (12.7%) demonstrated PDR. Resistance to NNRTIs was most prevalent (11.9%). PDR was higher in patients with previous ARV exposure compared with no exposure (30.5% versus 9.6%) (prevalence ratio = 3.17; P < 0.01). Conclusions: This survey demonstrated overall PDR at >10% among adults initiating ART in Namibia. Patients with prior ARV exposure had higher rates of PDR. Introducing a non-NNRTI-based regimen for first-line ART should be considered to maximize benefit of ART and minimize the emergence of HIVDR.

HIV-1 drug resistance before initiation or re-initiation of first-line antiretroviral therapy in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment drug resistance in people initiating or re-initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) containing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) might compromise HIV control in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to assess the scale of this problem and whether it is associated with the intiation or re-initiation of ART in people who have had previous exposure to antiretroviral drugs. METHODS: This study was a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. We assessed regional prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance and risk of pretreatment drug resistance in people initiating ART who reported previous ART exposure. We systematically screened publications and unpublished datasets for pretreatment drug-resistance data in individuals in LMICs initiating or re-initiating first-line ART from LMICs. We searched for studies in PubMed and Embase and conference abstracts and presentations from the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, the International AIDS Society Conference, and the International Drug Resistance Workshop for the period Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2016. To assess the prevalence of drug resistance within a specified region at any specific timepoint, we extracted study level data and pooled prevalence estimates within the region using an empty logistic regression model with a random effect at the study level. We used random effects meta-regression to relate sampling year to prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance within geographical regions. FINDINGS: We identified 358 datasets that contributed data to our analyses, representing 56 044 adults in 63 countries. Prevalence estimates of pretreatment NNRTI resistance in 2016 were 11·0% (7·5-15·9) in southern Africa, 10·1% (5·1-19·4) in eastern Africa, 7·2% (2·9-16·5) in western and central Africa, and 9·4% (6·6-13·2) in Latin America and the Caribbean. There were substantial increases in pretreatment NNRTI resistance per year in all regions. The yearly increases in the odds of pretreatment drug resistance were 23% (95% CI 16-29) in southern Africa, 17% (5-30) in eastern Africa, 17% (6-29) in western and central Africa, 11% (5-18) in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 11% (2-20) in Asia. Estimated increases in the absolute prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance between 2015 and 2016 ranged from 0·3% in Asia to 1·8% in southern Africa. INTERPRETATION: Pretreatment drug resistance is increasing at substantial rate in LMICs, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2016, the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance was near WHO's 10% threshold for changing first-line ART in southern and eastern Africa and Latin America, underscoring the need for routine national HIV drug-resistance surveillance and review of national policies for first-line ART regimen composition. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.

Assessment of the World Health Organization's HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Main and Decentralized Outreach Antiretroviral Therapy Sites in Namibia.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) early warning indicators (EWIs) of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) assess factors at individual ART sites that are known to create situations favourable to the emergence of HIVDR. METHODS: In 2014, the Namibia HIV care and treatment program abstracted the following adult and pediatric EWIs from all public ART sites (50 main sites and 143 outreach sites): On-time pill pick-up, Retention in care, Pharmacy stock-outs, Dispensing practices, and Viral load suppression. Comparisons were made between main and outreach sites and between 2014 and 2012 using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test in a matched analysis. RESULTS: The national estimates were: On-time pill pick-up 81.9% (95% CI 81.1-82.8) for adults and 82.4% (81.3-83.4) for pediatrics, Retention in care 79% retained on ART after 12 months for adults and 82% for pediatrics, Pharmacy stock-outs 94% of months without a stock-out for adults and 88% for pediatrics, and Dispensing practices 0.01% (0.001-0.056) dispensed mono- or dual-therapy for adults and 0.01% (0.001-0.069) for pediatrics. Viral load suppression was significantly affected by low rates of Viral load completion. Main sites had higher On-time pill pick-up than outreach sites for adults (p<0.001) and pediatrics (p<0.001), and no difference between main and outreach sites for Retention in care for adults (p = 0.761) or pediatrics (p = 0.214). From 2012 to 2014 in adult sites, On-time pill pick-up (p = 0.001), Retention in care (p<0.001), and Pharmacy stock-outs (p = 0.002) worsened. In pediatric sites, On-time pill pick-up (p<0.001) and Pharmacy stock-outs (p = 0.012) worsened. CONCLUSIONS: Results of EWIs monitoring in Namibia provide evidence about ART programmatic functioning and contextualize results from national surveys of HIVDR. These results are worrisome as they show a decline in program performance over time. The national ART program is taking steps to minimize the emergence of HIVDR by strengthening adherence and retention of patients on ART, reducing stock-outs, and strengthening ART data quality.