Updating Reproduction Number Estimates for Mpox in the Democratic Republic of Congo Using Surveillance Data.

Incidence of human monkeypox (mpox) has been increasing in West and Central Africa, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where monkeypox virus (MPXV) is endemic. Most estimates of the pathogen's transmissibility in the DRC are based on data from the 1980s. Amid the global 2022 mpox outbreak, new estimates are needed to characterize the virus' epidemic potential and inform outbreak control strategies. We used the R package vimes to identify clusters of laboratory-confirmed mpox cases in Tshuapa Province, DRC. Cases with both temporal and spatial data were assigned to clusters based on the disease's serial interval and spatial kernel. We used the size of the clusters to infer the effective reproduction number, Rt, and the rate of zoonotic spillover of MPXV into the human population. Out of 1,463 confirmed mpox cases reported in Tshuapa Province between 2013 and 2017, 878 had both date of symptom onset and a location with geographic coordinates. Results include an estimated Rt of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79-0.85) and a rate of 132 (95% CI: 122-143) spillovers per year assuming a reporting rate of 25%. This estimate of Rt is larger than most previous estimates. One potential explanation for this result is that Rt could have increased in the DRC over time owing to declining population-level immunity conferred by smallpox vaccination, which was discontinued around 1982. Rt could be overestimated if our assumption of one spillover event per cluster does not hold. Our results are consistent with increased transmissibility of MPXV in Tshuapa Province.

Serological responses to the MVA-based JYNNEOS monkeypox vaccine in a cohort of participants from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The current worldwide monkepox outbreak has reaffirmed the continued threat monkeypox virus (MPXV) poses to public health. JYNNEOS, a Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA)-based live, non-replicating vaccine, was recently approved for monkeypox prevention for adults at high risk of MPXV infection in the United States. Although the safety and immunogenicity of JYNNEOS have been examined previously, the clinical cohorts studied largely derive from regions where MPXV does not typically circulate. In this study, we assess the quality and longevity of serological responses to two doses of JYNNEOS vaccine in a large cohort of healthcare workers from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We show that JYNNEOS elicits a strong orthopoxvirus (OPXV)-specific antibody response in participants that peaks around day 42, or 2 weeks after the second vaccine dose. Participants with no prior history of smallpox vaccination or exposure have lower baseline antibody levels, but experience a similar fold-rise in antibody titers by day 42 as those with a prior history of vaccination. Both previously naïve and vaccinated participants generate vaccinia virus and MPXV-neutralizing antibody in response to JYNNEOS vaccination. Finally, even though total OPXV-specific IgG titers and neutralizing antibody titers declined from their peak and returned close to baseline levels by the 2-year mark, most participants remain IgG seropositive at the 2-year timepoint. Taken together, our data demonstrates that JYNNEOS vaccination triggers potent OPXV neutralizing antibody responses in a cohort of healthcare workers in DRC, a monkeypox-endemic region. MPXV vaccination with JYNNEOS may help ameliorate the disease and economic burden associated with monkeypox and combat potential outbreaks in areas with active virus circulation.

Clinical and Epidemiological Findings from Enhanced Monkeypox Surveillance in Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo During 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox is a poorly described emerging zoonosis endemic to Central and Western Africa. METHODS: Using surveillance data from Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2011-2015, we evaluated differences in incidence, exposures, and clinical presentation of polymerase chain reaction-confirmed cases by sex and age. RESULTS: We report 1057 confirmed cases. The average annual incidence was 14.1 per 100 000 (95% confidence interval, 13.3-15.0). The incidence was higher in male patients (incidence rate ratio comparing males to females, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.37), except among those 20-29 years old (0.70; .51-.95). Females aged 20-29 years also reported a high frequency of exposures (26.2%) to people with monkeypox-like symptoms.The highest incidence was among 10-19-year-old males, the cohort reporting the highest proportion of animal exposures (37.5%). The incidence was lower among those presumed to have received smallpox vaccination than among those presumed unvaccinated. No differences were observed by age group in lesion count or lesion severity score. CONCLUSIONS: Monkeypox incidence was twice that reported during 1980-1985, an increase possibly linked to declining immunity provided by smallpox vaccination. The high proportion of cases attributed to human exposures suggests changing exposure patterns. Cases were distributed across age and sex, suggesting frequent exposures that follow sociocultural norms.