Updated Global Warming Potentials and Radiative Efficiencies of Halocarbons and Other Weak Atmospheric Absorbers.

Human activity has led to increased atmospheric concentrations of many gases, including halocarbons, and may lead to emissions of many more gases. Many of these gases are, on a per molecule basis, powerful greenhouse gases, although at present-day concentrations their climate effect is in the so-called weak limit (i.e., their effect scales linearly with concentration). We published a comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies (RE) and global warming potentials (GWP) for around 200 such compounds in 2013 (Hodnebrog et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20013). Here we present updated RE and GWP values for compounds where experimental infrared absorption spectra are available. Updated numbers are based on a revised "Pinnock curve", which gives RE as a function of wave number, and now also accounts for stratospheric temperature adjustment (Shine & Myhre, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001951). Further updates include the implementation of around 500 absorption spectra additional to those in the 2013 review and new atmospheric lifetimes from the literature (mainly from WMO (2019)). In total, values for 60 of the compounds previously assessed are based on additional absorption spectra, and 42 compounds have REs which differ by >10% from our previous assessment. New RE calculations are presented for more than 400 compounds in addition to the previously assessed compounds, and GWP calculations are presented for a total of around 250 compounds. Present-day radiative forcing due to halocarbons and other weak absorbers is 0.38 [0.33-0.43] W m-2, compared to 0.36 [0.32-0.40] W m-2 in IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018), which is about 18% of the current CO2 forcing.

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming.

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength - and hence the rareness - of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation.

Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulphate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalised by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.

Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying.

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating, and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multi-model mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model-mean.

Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents.

Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes.

Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results.

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.

CYP2C19 pharmacogenetics in the clinical use of proton-pump inhibitors for gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: variant alleles predict gastric acid suppression, but not oesophageal acid exposure or reflux symptoms.

BACKGROUND: The rate of metabolic inactivation of proton-pump inhibitors is determined by polymorphisms of CYP2C19. It is not known if CYP2C19 variant alleles affect responses to proton-pump inhibitor therapy in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD). AIM: To determine if the CYP2C19 genotype is associated with clinical effectiveness of proton-pump inhibitors during GERD therapy. METHODS: GERD patients undergoing ambulatory gastric and oesophageal pH monitoring were genotyped for CYP2C19 polymorphisms. RESULTS: Sixty subjects were enrolled. Forty-four subjects had two wild-type alleles, 15 had one variant, and one had two variant CYP2C19 alleles. The presence of a variant allele was significantly associated with a lower odds of gastric acid breakthrough during proton-pump inhibitor therapy [odds ratio 5.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-22.61]. The presence of a variant allele was not associated with a lower odds of significant oesophageal acid exposure (odds ratio 2.50, 95% CI 0.60-10.52), or the occurrence of symptoms (incidence rate ratio 1.06, 95% CI 0.54-2.06). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that factors other than gastric acid secretion are important determinants of reflux in GERD patients. This suggests that CYP2C19 genotype testing will not be useful in proton-pump inhibitor therapy of GERD, except perhaps in identifying patients at risk for hypochlorhydria and consequent hypergastrinemia.

Fractures of the palmar aspect of the carpal bones in horses: 10 cases (1984-2000).

OBJECTIVE: To determine clinical and radiographic findings, treatment, and outcome of horses with fractures of the palmar aspect of the radial carpal bone, with or without concurrent fractures of the palmar surfaces of the other carpal bones. DESIGN: Retrospective study. ANIMALS: 10 horses. PROCEDURE: Medical records were reviewed to obtain information on history, signalment, clinical and radiographic findings, treatment, and outcome. Follow-up information was gathered from owners and referring veterinarians. RESULTS: 7 horses became lame after recovery from general anesthesia for treatment of an unrelated problem. The remaining 3 horses developed a fore-limb lameness after falling (1 horse) or being turned out in a pasture (2 horses). Fractures involved the palmar surface of the radial carpal bone in all 10 horses; in addition, the ulnar carpal bone was affected in 2 horses, the intermediate carpal bone in 2 horses, and the distal aspect of the radius in 4 horses. None of the 4 horses treated nonsurgically returned to work, and 3 were euthanatized because of recalcitrant lameness. In the other 6 horses, fragments were removed surgically. Two were euthanatized because of continued lameness, 1 was euthanatized for other reasons, 2 were sound enough for light work, and 1 returned to athletic work. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggest that fractures of the palmar aspect of the carpal bones are uncommon in horses. The prognosis appears to be poor for affected horses but may be better for horses that undergo arthroscopic removal of intra-articular fragments.

The effect of occupational cultures on coordination of emergency medical service aircrew.

BACKGROUND/HYPOTHESIS: The purpose of the study was to see whether one can determine different occupational cultures in the Emergency Medical Air Ambulance Service and whether these differences in orientation among the crewmembers may have an impace on effective crew coordination. Due to different requirements of the Emergency Medical Service (EMS), each crewmember joins the duty with different backgrounds, interests and expectations. The operational stresses of this kind of service, however, demand teamwork and may easily expose the crew's ability to coordinate their actions to work as a team. METHOD: The initial study consisted of 60 operational crewmembers from the Norwegian Air Ambulance Service. Hofstede's questionnaire Values Survey Module was administered for an evaluation of occupational culture. RESULTS: The analysis reveals group differences at the occupational level in the perception of power distribution, team orientation and achievement preferences. CONCLUSION: We conclude that differences in certain work goals might be attributed partly by specific attitudes and values from the occupational categories' professional background, which influence the interpretation of established rules and procedures in the service. The results are further discussed in relation to the crewmembers' different task demands and areas of responsibility, and emphasis is put on organizational responsibility for enhancing safety and efficiency in the service.

Adjustment of sleep and the circadian temperature rhythm after flights across nine time zones.

The adjustment of sleep-wake patterns and the circadian temperature rhythm was monitored in nine Royal Norwegian Air-force volunteers operating P-3 aircraft during a westward training deployment across nine time zones. Subjects recorded all sleep and nap times, rated nightly sleep quality, and completed personality inventories. Rectal temperature, heart rate, and wrist activity were continuously monitored. Adjustment was slower after the return eastward flight than after the outbound westward flight. The eastward flight produced slower readjustment of sleep timing to local time and greater interindividual variability in the patterns of adjustment of sleep and temperature. One subject apparently exhibited resynchronization by partition, with the temperature rhythm undergoing the reciprocal 15-h delay. In contrast, average heart rates during sleep were significantly elevated only after westward flight. Interindividual differences in adjustment of the temperature rhythm were correlated with some of the personality measures. Larger phase delays in the overall temperature waveform (as measured on the 5th day after westward flight) were exhibited by extraverts, and less consistently by evening types.

Sleep of shiftworkers within the arctic circle.

The sleep of shiftworkers in the Arctic has been investigated using electroencephalography. The subjects were studied four times a year over a 2-year period. There was a trend toward less restful sleep during the autumn and winter months, but otherwise sleep at various times of the day was similar to that of individuals elsewhere. This would suggest that sleep disturbance in polar shiftworkers can be managed in a similar way to that of shiftworkers in temperate regions.

A review of twinning in horses and the possible therapeutic value of supplemental progesterone to prevent abortion of equine twin fetuses the latter half of the gestation period.

Equine twinning, related abortion and progestogen plasma concentrations during the gestation period were reviewed. The supplemental administration of exogenous progesterone apparently prevented impending twin abortions in three mares after midgestation. A single viable twin and a mummified fetus were delivered at term by the mares.

Improved medium for the transportation of gonococcal specimens.

A modification of Stuart medium, denominated SIFF transport medium, was compared with Stuart (Ringertz's modification), Amies and SBL transport media for its ability to preserve viability of gonococci during transport. The SIFF medium was superior both when using laboratory strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and when using clinical specimens. The new transport medium distinguishes itself mainly by an increased osmotic pressure and by its starch content.

Fever and behavioural temperature regulation in the frog Rana esculenta.

The skin and colonic temperatures were recorded in frogs (Rana esculenta) which had selected a suitable microenvironment in a box filled with 2-3 cm water. The water temperatures ranged from 0 degrees C to + 40 degrees C. Such measurements were performed before and after intraperitoneal injections of killed pathogenic bacteria (M. xenopi and M. range), killed non-pathogenic bacteria (M. aquae II) and 0.9% sterile saline, intraperitoneal injections of blood plasma from frogs pre-injected with killed M. ranae, injections of PGE1 into the brain. The injections of pathogenic bacterial endotoxin caused, after latencies of 5-120 min, higher preferred water temperatures, which produced an average maximum colonic temperature increase of 6.5 degrees C +/- 1.0 degrees C (S.E.) (p less than 0.001). The non-pathogenic bacteria and sterile saline caused no temperature change. Monophasic hyperthermia of shorter latency was caused by injections of blood plasma from frog preinjected with M. ranae. Monophasic hyperthermia of the shortest latency was observed after diencephalic injections of PGE1. Based on their similarity we suggest that ectothermic and endothermic fever have a common phylogenetic origin.

Thermoregulatory behavior and body temperature in chicks of willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus lagopus).

Clocal temperatures (Tcl) of outdoor living captive willow grouse chicks (Lagopus lagopus lagopus) were found to increase from 39.4 +/- 0.5 degrees C. the first day to 40.3 +/- 0.5 degrees C. the twelfth day after hatching. Average Tcl of adults was 40.7 +/- 0.3 degrees C. When left alone for 30 min. in a controlled test environment providing temperatures ranging from 21 degrees C. to 46 degrees C., the one day old chicks preferred significantly higher ambient temperatures than eight day old birds. Tcl was significantly lower in the chicks tested the day after hatching than in the older chicks. It is concluded that the chicks' thermoregulatory behavior is essential for maintaining homeothermia, and that the birds' thermoregulatory set-point is low the day after hatching and climbs to adult level during the first week.

Lincomycin in selective medium for the isolation of Neisseria gonorrhoeae.

For the isolation of gonococci, the selective culture medium containing colistin, vancomycin, nystatin and trimethoprim which is usually employed has been changed by substituting lincomycin for vancomycin. The best result was obtained if a concentration of 1/2 mug lincomycin/ml medium was used. This is a concentration of lincomycin considerably lower than that which by other investigators is considered most suitable for the purpose. However, the culture medium used by the latter did not contain trimethoprim. The use of 1/2 mug lincomycin/ml instead of vancomycin 3 mug/ml in the medium caused a slightly more pronounced growth of unwanted organisms. In spite of this, the results obtained by the medium containing lincomycin showed that the number of samples positive for gonococci was 7 per cent higher, and that the number of patients with gonococcal infections to be discovered was 4 per cent higher than the numbers obtained by the medium containing vancomycin. The results were considered highly favourable and, accordingly, by now our laboratory uses 1/2 mug lincomycin/ml medium in the routine isolation of gonococci.