Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty in Preclinical Human Dose-Prediction.

Human dose-prediction is fundamental for ranking lead-optimization compounds in drug discovery and to inform design of early clinical trials. This tutorial describes how uncertainty in such predictions can be quantified and efficiently communicated to facilitate decision-making. Using three drug-discovery case studies, we show how several uncertain pieces of input information can be integrated into one single uncomplicated plot with key predictions, including their uncertainties, for many compounds or for many scenarios, or both.

Dissociative recombination of H+(H2O)3 and D+(D2O)3 water cluster ions with electrons: cross sections and branching ratios.

Dissociative recombination (DR) of the water cluster ions H(+)(H(2)O)(3) and D(+)(D(2)O)(3) with electrons has been studied at the heavy-ion storage ring CRYRING (Manne Siegbahn Laboratory, Stockholm University). For the first time, absolute DR cross sections have been measured for H(+)(H(2)O)(3) in the energy range of 0.001-0.8 eV, and relative cross sections have been measured for D(+)(D(2)O)(3) in the energy range of 0.001-1.0 eV. The DR cross sections for H(+)(H(2)O)(3) are larger than previously observed for H(+)(H(2)O)(n) (n=1,2), which is in agreement with the previously observed trend indicating that the DR rate coefficient increases with size of the water cluster ion. Branching ratios have been determined for the dominating product channels. Dissociative recombination of H(+)(H(2)O)(3) mainly results in the formation of 3H(2)O+H (probability of 0.95+/-0.05) and with a possible minor channel resulting in 2H(2)O+OH+H(2) (0.05+/-0.05). The dominating channels for DR of D(+)(D(2)O)(3) are 3D(2)O+D (0.88+/-0.03) and 2D(2)O+OD+D(2) (0.09+/-0.02). The branching ratios are comparable to earlier DR results for H(+)(H(2)O)(2) and D(+)(D(2)O)(2), which gave 2X(2)O+X (X=H,D) with a probability of over 0.9.

Dissociative recombination of ammonia clusters studied by storage ring experiments.

Dissociative recombination of ammonia cluster ions with free electrons has been studied at the heavy-ion storage ring CRYRING (Manne Siegbahn Laboratory, Stockholm University). The absolute cross sections for dissociative recombination of H+(NH3)2, H+(NH3)3, D+(ND3)2, and D+(ND3)3 in the collision energy range of 0.001-27 eV are reported, and thermal rate coefficients for the temperature interval from 10 to 1000 K are calculated from the experimental data and compared with earlier results. The fragmentation patterns for the two ions H+(NH3)2 and D+(ND3)2 show no clear isotope effect. Dissociative recombination of X+(NX3)2 (X=H or D) is dominated by the product channels 2NX3+X [0.95+/-0.02 for H+(NH3)2 and 1.00+/-0.02 for D+(ND3)2]. Dissociative recombination of D+(ND3)3 is dominated by the channels yielding three N-containing fragments (0.95+/-0.05).

Dissociative recombination of NH4+ and ND4+ ions: storage ring experiments and ab initio molecular dynamics.

The dissociative recombination (DR) process of NH4+ and ND4+ molecular ions with free electrons has been studied at the heavy-ion storage ring CRYRING (Manne Siegbahn Laboratory, Stockholm University). The absolute cross sections for DR of NH4+ and ND4+ in the collision energy range 0.001-1 eV are reported, and thermal rate coefficients for the temperature interval from 10 to 2000 K are calculated from the experimental data. The absolute cross section for NH4+ agrees well with earlier work and is about a factor of 2 larger than the cross section for ND4+. The dissociative recombination of NH4+ is dominated by the product channels NH3+H (0.85+/-0.04) and NH2+2H (0.13+/-0.01), while the DR of ND4+ mainly results in ND3+D (0.94+/-0.03). Ab initio direct dynamics simulations, based on the assumption that the dissociation dynamics is governed by the neutral ground-state potential energy surface, suggest that the primary product formed in the DR process is NH3+H. The ejection of the H atom is direct and leaves the NH3 molecule highly vibrationally excited. A fraction of the excited ammonia molecules may subsequently undergo secondary fragmentation forming NH2+H. It is concluded that the model results are consistent with gross features of the experimental results, including the sensitivity of the branching ratio for the three-body channel NH2+2H to isotopic exchange.