RESUMO
We conducted a cross-sectional study for SARS-CoV-2 anti-S1 IgG prevalence in French blood donors (n=32605), from May-2020 to January-2021. A mathematical model combined seroprevalence with daily number of hospital admissions to estimate the probability of hospitalization upon infection and determine the number of infections while correcting for antibody decay. There was an overall seroprevalence increase over the study period and we estimate that [~]15% of the French population had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 by January-2021. The infection/hospitalization ratio increased with age, from 0.56% (18-30yo) to 6.75% (61-70yo). Half of the IgG-S1 positive individuals had no detectable antibodies 4 to 5 months after infection. The seroprevalence in group O donors (7.43%) was lower (p=0.003) than in A, B and AB donors (8.90%). We conclude, based on seroprevalence data and mathematical modelling, that the overall immunity in the French population before the vaccination campaign started was too low to achieve herd immunity.
