A polygenic risk score for alcohol-associated cirrhosis among heavy drinkers with European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) based on results from genome-wide association studies offer the prospect of risk stratification for many common and complex diseases. We developed a PRS for alcohol-associated cirrhosis by comparing single-nucleotide polymorphisms among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC) versus drinkers who did not have evidence of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. METHODS: Using a data-driven approach, a PRS for ALC was generated using a meta-genome-wide association study of ALC (N=4305) and an independent cohort of heavy drinkers with ALC and without significant liver disease (N=3037). It was validated in 2 additional independent cohorts from the UK Biobank with diagnosed ALC (N=467) and high-risk drinking controls (N=8981) and participants in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort with alcohol-associated liver disease (N=121) and controls without liver disease (N=3239). RESULTS: A 20-single-nucleotide polymorphisms PRS for ALC (PRSALC) was generated that stratified risk for ALC comparing the top and bottom deciles of PRS in the 2 validation cohorts (ORs: 2.83 [95% CI: 1.82 -4.39] in UK Biobank; 4.40 [1.56 -12.44] in Indiana Biobank Liver cohort). Furthermore, PRSALC improved the prediction of ALC risk when added to the models of clinically known predictors of ALC risk. It also stratified the risk for metabolic dysfunction -associated steatotic liver disease -cirrhosis (3.94 [2.23 -6.95]) in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort -based exploratory analysis. CONCLUSIONS: PRSALC incorporates 20 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, predicts increased risk for ALC, and improves risk stratification for ALC compared with the models that only include clinical risk factors. This new score has the potential for early detection of heavy drinking patients who are at high risk for ALC.

Upfront multi-bipolar radiofrequency ablation for HCC in transplant-eligible cirrhotic patients with salvage transplantation in case of recurrence.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to assess the long-term outcomes of percutaneous multi-bipolar radiofrequency (mbpRFA) as the first treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in transplant-eligible cirrhotic patients, followed by salvage transplantation for intrahepatic distant tumour recurrence or liver failure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included transplant-eligible patients with cirrhosis and a first diagnosis of HCC within Milan criteria treated by upfront mbp RFA. Transplantability was defined by age <70 years, social support, absence of significant comorbidities, no active alcohol use and no recent extrahepatic cancer. Baseline variables were correlated with outcomes using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox models. RESULTS: Among 435 patients with HCC, 172 were considered as transplantable with HCCs >2 cm (53%), uninodular (87%) and AFP >100 ng/mL (13%). Median overall survival was 87 months, with 75% of patients alive at 3 years, 61% at 5 years and 43% at 10 years. Age (p = .003) and MELD>10 (p = .01) were associated with the risk of death. Recurrence occurred in 118 patients within Milan criteria in 81% of cases. Local recurrence was observed in 24.5% of cases at 10 years and distant recurrence rates were observed in 69% at 10 years. After local recurrence, 69% of patients were still alive at 10 years. At the first tumour recurrence, 75 patients (65%) were considered transplantable. Forty-one patients underwent transplantation, mainly for distant intrahepatic tumour recurrence. The overall 5-year survival post-transplantation was 72%, with a tumour recurrence of 2.4%. CONCLUSION: Upfront multi-bipolar RFA for a first diagnosis of early HCC on cirrhosis coupled with salvage liver transplantation had a favourable intention-to-treat long-term prognosis, allowing for spare grafts.

Long-term oncological results of percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: The effectiveness of percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (iCCA) remains insufficiently studied. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study including patients with histologically proven iCCA within Milan criteria treated by percutaneous RFA from 2000 to 2022. The primary outcome was overall survival in treatment-naive patients and secondary outcomes included ablation completeness, adverse events, local and distant recurrence. A total of 494 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on cirrhosis treated by RFA were included as a comparison group. Oncological events were analysed using Kaplan-Meier, log-rank and univariate/multivariate Cox models. RESULTS: The main population included 71 patients, mostly cirrhotic (80%) with solitary tumours (66%) of a median size of 24 mm. Local recurrence was 45% at 5 years, lower in multibipolar versus monopolar RFA (22% vs. 55%, p = .007). In treatment-naive patients (n = 45), median overall and recurrence-free survivals were 26 and 11 months, respectively. Tumour size (p = .01) and Child-Pugh B (p = .001) were associated with death. The rate of distant recurrence was 59% at 5 years significantly lower for single tumours of less than 2 (p = .002) or 3 cm (p = .02). In cirrhotic patients naïve of previous treatment (n = 40), overall survival was shorter than in HCC (26 vs 68 months, p < .0001), with more local recurrences (p < .0001). Among distant recurrences, 50% were extrahepatic metastases compared to 12% in HCC (p < .001). CONCLUSION: Multibipolar RFA provides better results in terms of tumour recurrence than monopolar RFA and could be used to treat small iCCA (<3 cm). Adjuvant chemotherapy should be discussed due to the frequent extra-hepatic metastasis at recurrence.

Study protocol for FASTRAK: a randomised controlled trial evaluating the cost impact and effectiveness of FAST-MRI for HCC suRveillance in pAtients with high risK of liver cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using semi-annual liver ultrasound (US) is justified in patients with cirrhosis. In this context, US has a low sensitivity (<30%) for the detection of HCC at the very early stage (ie, Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) 0, uninodular tumour <2 cm). The sensitivity of abbreviated liver MRI (AMRI) is reported to exceed 80%, but its use is hampered by costs and availability. Our hypothesis is that AMRI used as a screening examination in patients at high risk of HCC (>3% per year) could increase the rates of patients with a tumour detected at an early stage accessible to curative-intent treatment, and demonstrate its cost-effectiveness in this population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The FASTRAK trial is a multicentre, randomised controlled trial with two parallel arms, aiming for superiority and conducted on patients at high risk for HCC (yearly HCC incidence >3%). Randomisation will be conducted on an individual basis with a centralised approach and stratification by centre. After inclusion in the trial, each patient will be randomly assigned to the experimental group (semi-annual US and AMRI) or the control group (semi-annual US alone). The main objective is to assess the cost/quality-adjusted life year and cost/patient detected with a BCLC 0 HCC in both arms. A total of 944 patients will be recruited in 37 tertiary French centres during a 36-month period and will be followed-up during 36 months. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The FASTRAK trial received ethical approval on 4 April 2022. Results will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals as well as presentation at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Clinical trial number (ClinicaTrials.gov) NCT05095714.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario). RESULTS: All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

The clinical and financial burden of nonhepatocellular carcinoma focal lesions detected during the surveillance of patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HCC surveillance is challenged by the detection of hepatic focal lesions (HFLs) of other types. This study aimed to describe the incidence, characteristics, outcomes, and costs of non-HCC HFL detected during surveillance. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively analyzed nonstandardized workup performed in French patients included in HCC surveillance programs recruited in 57 French tertiary centers (ANRS CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts, HCC 2000 trial). The overall cost of workup was evaluated, with an estimation of an average cost per patient for the entire population and per lesion detected. A total of 3295 patients were followed up for 59.8 months, 391 (11.9%) patients developed HCCs (5-year incidence: 12.1%), and 633 (19.2%) developed non-HCC HFLs (5-year incidence: 21.8%). Characterization of non-HCC HFL required a median additional of 0.7 exams per year. A total of 11.8% of non-HCC HFLs were not confirmed on recall procedures, and 19.6% of non-HCC HFLs remained undetermined. A definite diagnosis of benign liver lesions was made in 65.1%, and malignant tumors were diagnosed in 3.5%. The survival of patients with benign or undetermined non-HCC HFL was similar to that of patients who never developed any HFL (5-year survival 92% vs. 88%, p = 0.07). The average cost of the diagnostic workup was 1087€ for non-HCC HFL and €1572 for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Non-HCC HFLs are frequently detected in patients with cirrhosis, and do not impact prognosis, but trigger substantial costs. This burden must be considered in cost-effectiveness analyses of future personalized surveillance strategies.

Impact of radiological response and pattern of progression in patients with HCC treated by atezolizumab-bevacizumab.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aim to assess the role of radiological response to atezolizumab-bevacizumab in patients with HCC to predict overall survival. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively included patients with HCC treated by atezolizumab-bevacizumab in 2 tertiary centers. A retrospective blinded analysis was performed by 2 radiologists to assess Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumor (RECIST 1.1) and modified RECIST (mRECIST) criteria at 12 weeks. Imaging response and treatment decisions in the multidisciplinary tumor board at 12 weeks were registered. Among 125 patients, 9.6% and 20.8% had a response, 39.2% and 35.2% had stable disease, and 51.2% and 44% had progression, according to RECIST 1.1 and mRECIST, respectively, with a substantial interobserver agreement (k coefficient=0.79). Metastasis was independently associated with a higher risk of progression. Patients classified as responders did not reach median survival, which was 16.2 and 15.9 months for patients classified as stable and 9.1 and 9.0 months for patients classified as progressors, in RECIST 1.1 and mRECIST criteria, respectively. We observed a wide variability in the identification of progression in the multidisciplinary tumor board in clinical practice compared with the blind evaluation by radiologists mainly due to discrepancy in the evaluation of the increase in size of intrahepatic lesions. The appearance of new extrahepatic lesions or vascular invasion lesions was associated with a worse overall survival ( p =0.032). CONCLUSIONS: RECIST 1.1 and mRECIST criteria predict overall survival with more responders identified by mRECIST and the appearance of new extrahepatic lesion or vascular invasion was associated with a poor prognosis. A noticeable discrepancy was observed between patients classified as progressors at reviewing and the decision reached during the multidisciplinary tumor board.

Unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma at dawn of immunotherapy era: real-world data from the French prospective CHIEF cohort.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiological data are limited in France. The Epidemio Liver Immunotherapy Tecentriq outcome research (ELITor) retrospective study, based on real-world data from the Carcinome HépatocellulaIrE en France (CHIEF) French cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma patients, aimed to get insight into the treatment patterns, the sociodemographic, clinical, biological, and etiological characteristics, and the quality of life of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1 September 2019 and 4 December 2020, 367 patients from the CHIEF cohort received at least one locoregional (52.8%) chemoembolization or radioembolization or systemic treatment (88.3%) and were selected for ELITor. Most patients had a Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) C (93.2%) hepatocellular carcinoma stage and were affected by cirrhosis (67.7%). Alcohol was confirmed as the main etiology both as a single etiology (29.1%) and in association with other risk factors (26.9%), mainly metabolic disorders (16.2%).Tyrosine-kinase inhibitors, mainly sorafenib, were the most administered systemic treatments in first line. Patients who received at least one combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab during the study period ( N  = 53) had a better performance status and less portal hypertension frequency than the overall population and more hepatitis B virus infection and fewer metabolic disorders as single etiology. Overall, the global health score before treatment (62.3 ±â€…21.9) was in line with that of reference cancer patients and worsened in 51.9% of the cases after first-line palliative-intent treatment. CONCLUSION: This study provided real-life data on advanced hepatocellular carcinoma characteristics and treatment patterns and described the first patients to receive the atezolizumab-bevacizumab combination before it became the new standard of care for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Molecular-based targeted therapies in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and hepato-cholangiocarcinoma refractory to atezolizumab/bevacizumab.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The "French Medicine Genomic program 2025" has been designed to give patients with cancers that are refractory to systemic treatments access to off-label therapies adapted to their specific genomic profile. Herein, we reported the results of this program in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepato-cholangiocarcinoma (H-CCK). METHODS: In one center, all patients with HCC or H-CCK who progressed under atezolizumab/bevacizumab with available tumor frozen samples benefited from whole-genome/-exome and RNA sequencing. Targeted therapies were matched to genomic alterations following the recommendations of a molecular tumor board and radiological response and overall survival were assessed. RESULTS: Among 135 patients with HCC and H-CCK treated by atezolizumab/bevacizumab, 20 patients benefited from genomic analysis after progression (16 HCC; 4 H-CCK). Nineteen patients had analyzable data, 70% were male, median age was 57 years, 65% had metastatic disease and 45% had vascular invasion. Among these 19 patients, 14 patients (76%) harbored at least one actionable genomic alteration and 9/14 received an adapted targeted therapy (45%). One patient with H-CCK showing CDK4 amplification was treated with palbociclib and achieved a partial radiological response for 16 months. Another patient with H-CCK, high HER2 overexpression and a high homologous recombination score was treated with trastuzumab/olaparib and had stable disease. One patient with an HCC and bi-allelic inactivation of TSC2 achieved a complete radiological response under everolimus. The remaining six treated patients (all HCC) had progressive disease, including three patients treated with trametinib, two with everolimus and one with olaparib. CONCLUSION: Molecular-based guided therapy is feasible in patients with HCC/H-CCK progressing under atezolizumab/bevacizumab and may be useful in a small subset of patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The use of whole-genome/-exome and RNA sequencing in clinical practice has not been reported in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and hepato-cholangiocarcinoma. Herein, we performed a pilot study which suggested that whole-genome/-exome and RNA sequencing is feasible on tumor biopsies from patients refractory to atezolizumab/bevacizumab, with a small subset of patients exhibiting at least one actionable genomic alteration and receiving an adapted targeted therapy. This proof-of-concept study suggests that this clinical strategy could benefit a small subset of patients. Finally, validation of this approach will be required in a larger cohort of patients.

Effect of Prophylactic Antibiotics on Mortality in Severe Alcohol-Related Hepatitis: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The benefits of prophylactic antibiotics for hospitalized patients with severe alcohol-related hepatitis are unclear. Objective: To determine the efficacy of amoxicillin-clavulanate, compared with placebo, on mortality in patients hospitalized with severe alcohol-related hepatitis and treated with prednisolone. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, randomized, double-blind clinical trial among patients with biopsy-proven severe alcohol-related hepatitis (Maddrey function score ≥32 and Model for End-stage Liver Disease [MELD] score ≥21) from June 13, 2015, to May 24, 2019, in 25 centers in France and Belgium. All patients were followed up for 180 days. Final follow-up occurred on November 19, 2019. Intervention: Patients were randomly assigned (1:1 allocation) to receive prednisolone combined with amoxicillin-clavulanate (n = 145) or prednisolone combined with placebo (n = 147). Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 60 days. Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality at 90 and 180 days; incidence of infection, incidence of hepatorenal syndrome, and proportion of participants with a MELD score less than 17 at 60 days; and proportion of patients with a Lille score less than 0.45 at 7 days. Results: Among 292 randomized patients (mean age, 52.8 [SD, 9.2] years; 80 [27.4%] women) 284 (97%) were analyzed. There was no significant difference in 60-day mortality between participants randomized to amoxicillin-clavulanate and those randomized to placebo (17.3% in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 21.3% in the placebo group [P = .33]; between-group difference, -4.7% [95% CI, -14.0% to 4.7%]; hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.45-1.31]). Infection rates at 60 days were significantly lower in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group (29.7% vs 41.5%; mean difference, -11.8% [95% CI, -23.0% to -0.7%]; subhazard ratio, 0.62; [95% CI, 0.41-0.91]; P = .02). There were no significant differences in any of the remaining 3 secondary outcomes. The most common serious adverse events were related to liver failure (25 in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 20 in the placebo group), infections (23 in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 46 in the placebo group), and gastrointestinal disorders (15 in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 21 in the placebo group). Conclusion and Relevance: In patients hospitalized with severe alcohol-related hepatitis, amoxicillin-clavulanate combined with prednisolone did not improve 2-month survival compared with prednisolone alone. These results do not support prophylactic antibiotics to improve survival in patients hospitalized with severe alcohol-related hepatitis. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02281929.

Statistical perspectives on using hepatocellular carcinoma risk models to inform surveillance decisions.

More than 50,000 people are diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) every year in Europe. Many cases are known to specialist liver centres years before they present with HCC. Despite this, HCC is usually detected at a late stage, when prognosis is very poor. For more than two decades, clinical guidelines have recommended uniform surveillance for all patients with cirrhosis. However, studies continue to show that this broad-based approach is inefficient and poorly implemented in practice. A "personalised" approach, where the surveillance regimen is customised to the needs of the patient, is gaining growing support in the clinical community. The cornerstone of personalised surveillance is the HCC risk model - a mathematical equation predicting a patient's individualised probability of developing HCC within a specific time window. However, although numerous risk models have now been published, few are being used in routine care to inform HCC surveillance decisions. In this article, we discuss methodological issues stymieing the use of HCC risk models in routine practice - highlighting biases, evidence gaps and misconceptions that future research must address.

Individual and population screening of varices needing treatment by a simple, safe and accurate test.

BACKGROUND: Several tests have been developed to screen varices needing treatment (VNT) in different screening settings. We aimed to develop simple estimators to quantify VNT risk and spare endoscopy while missing <5% of VNT, adapted to different screenings in the main etiologies. METHODS: 2,368 patients with chronic liver disease were included. The main VNT predictors were platelets, prothrombin index (PI) and LSM. Their interactions led to score construction, LIP: (LSM*45)/(PI*platelets), and BLIP: BMI-adjusted LIP in NAFLD. Scores were categorized either for population (VNT sensitivity ≥95%) or individual (negative predictive value ≥95%) VNT screening. RESULTS: 1) Scores diagnosing VNT. AUROCs were, PLER: 0.767 Anticipate: 0.773 (p=0.059 vs previous), LIP: 0.779 (p=0.136), PLEASE: 0.789 (p=0.196). 2) Population screening performance was in increasing order (with missed VNT rate), Baveno6 criteria: 23.9% (2.5%), Anticipate: 24.5%, p=0.367 vs previous (3.3%), PLER: 27.3%, p<0.001 (3.6%), LIP: 33.4%, p<0.001 (4.2%), PLEASE: 35.2%, p=0.006 (3.6%). In NAFLD, LIP: 38.6%, BLIP: 40.8%, p=0.038. 3) Individual screening performance was, expanded Baveno6 criteria: 42.7%, LIP: 54.1%, p<0.001. In NAFLD, performance was, NAFLD-cirrhosis criteria: 66.7%, BLIP: 74.6%, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: LIP combined simplicity, performance and safety in each etiology. In NAFLD, BMI-adjusted LIP outperformed other tests.

Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment failure with multikinase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data on the effectiveness of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezo-bev) after failure of multikinase inhibitor (MKI) therapy in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma are scarce. METHODS: This retrospective multicentre study included all consecutive patients treated with atezo-bev after failing one or more MKI treatments in the setting of an early access program. The primary endpoint was the objective response rate (ORR) by investigator assessment (using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors v1.1). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed using the Kaplan‒Meier method. RESULTS: Fifty patients were included in this analysis. Atezo-bev was started between April 2020 and November 2021 (median follow-up, 18.21 months). The investigator-assessed ORR was 14% (95% CI 5.37-22.63%), with 7 patients displaying a tumour response, and the disease control rate was 56% (95% CI 51.21-60.8%). After starting atezo-bev, the median OS was 17.1 months (95% CI 10.58-22.01), and the median PFS was 7.99 months (95% CI 4.78-10.50). Treatment-related adverse events led to treatment discontinuation in 7 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Atezo-bev every three weeks showed clinical benefit for a proportion of patients previously treated with one or multiple lines of MKIs.

Screening of liver cancer with abbreviated MRI.

Current recommendations for the surveillance of HCC are based on the semiannual liver ultrasound (with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein) in patients with cirrhosis and in subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, the sensitivity of this strategy is suboptimal for the detection of early-stage tumors, especially in obese patients, due to interoperator variability and poor adherence. The detection rate of focal liver lesions is excellent with MRI, making it the best alternative candidate for surveillance. However, performing a full contrast-enhanced MRI is unrealistic because of limited availability and health economics. Abbreviated MRI (AMRI) corresponds to the acquisition of a limited number of sequences with a high detection rate. The theoretical benefits of AMRI are a reduced acquisition time (≤10 min) with improved time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness compared with conventional MRI, and greater accuracy than ultrasound. Numerous protocols may be performed, including T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and DWI sequences, with or without contrast administration. Although published studies report promising per-patient results, they should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, most studies were simulated, retrospectively reviewing a subset of sequences in relatively small populations who underwent a full MRI. They also included groups that were not representative of screening populations. In addition, most were published by Asian groups, with at-risk populations that were different from Western populations. There are no existing longitudinal studies that directly compare the different AMRI approaches or AMRI to ultrasound. Finally, it is possible that 1 approach will not fit all patients and that strategies should be tailored to the risk of HCC, in particular in relation to the cost and availability of AMRI. Several trials are ongoing to evaluate these questions.

Dynamic personalized prediction of the individual liver-related risk after sustained viral response in HCV patients.

Sustained viral response (SVR) significantly improves the prognosis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection but does not totally alleviate the risk of liver-related complications (LRC). We aimed to evaluate whether the dynamics of multiple measurements of simple parameters after SVR enable the development of a personalized prediction of prognosis in HCV patients. HCV mono-infected patients who experienced SVR in two prospective cohorts (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort: derivation set; ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort: validation set) were included. The study outcome was LRC, a composite criterion including decompensation of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Joint latent class modelling accounting for both biomarker trajectory and event occurrence during follow-up was developed in the derivation set to compute individual dynamic predictions, with further evaluation in the validation set. In the derivation set (n = 695; 50 LRC during the median 3.8 [1.6-7.5] years follow-up), FIB4 was identified as a biomarker associated with LRC occurrence after SVR. Joint modelling used sex and the dynamics of FIB4 and diabetes status to develop a personalized prediction of LRC. In the validation set (n = 7064; 273 LRC during the median 3.6 [2.5-4.9] years follow-up), individual dynamic predictions from the model accurately stratified the risk of LRC. Time-dependent Brier Score showed good calibration that improved with the accumulation of visits, justifying our modelling approach considering both baseline and follow-up measurements. Dynamic modelling using repeated measurements of simple parameters predicts the individual residual risk of LRC and improves personalized medicine after SVR in HCV patients.

International Liver Cancer Association (ILCA) white paper on hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance.

Major research efforts in liver cancer have been devoted to increasing the efficacy and effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As with other cancers, surveillance programmes aim to detect tumours at an early stage, facilitate curative-intent treatment, and reduce cancer-related mortality. HCC surveillance is supported by a large randomised-controlled trial in patients with chronic HBV infection and several cohort studies in cirrhosis; however, effectiveness in clinical practice is limited by several barriers, including inadequate risk stratification, underuse of surveillance, and suboptimal accuracy of screening tests. There are several proposed strategies to address these limitations, including risk stratification algorithms and biomarkers to better identity at-risk individuals, interventions to increase surveillance, and emerging imaging- and blood-based surveillance tests with improved sensitivity and specificity for early HCC detection. Beyond clinical validation, data are needed to establish clinical utility, i.e. increased early tumour detection and reduced HCC-related mortality. If successful, these data could facilitate a precision screening paradigm in which surveillance strategies are tailored to individual HCC risk to maximise overall surveillance value. However, practical and logistical considerations must be considered when designing and implementing these validation efforts. To address these issues, ILCA (the International Liver Cancer Association) adjourned a single topic workshop on HCC risk stratification and surveillance in June 2022. Herein, we present a white paper on these topics, including the status of the field, ongoing research efforts, and barriers to the translation of emerging strategies.

Cost-utility analysis of atezolizumab with bevacizumab in untreated unresectable or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in France.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The IMbrave150 clinical trial assessed the efficacy and safety of atezolizumab in combination with bevacizumab (ATZ+BVA) versus sorafenib in adults with advanced/unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma, who have not received prior systemic treatment. Our aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of ATZ+BVA versus sorafenib in France based on an updated prices and considering French National real-world data, to confirm the initial recommendations from the Heath Technology Assessment submission published in 2021, and provide additional visibility to decision-makers reflecting current clinical practice. METHODS: A partition survival model was developed to project clinical outcomes, quality of life, and costs of patients with HCC treated with ATZ+BVA versus sorafenib over a lifetime horizon. Survival outcomes were extrapolated via parametric functions for both treatment strategies. Quality of life (EQ-5D-5L, French tariffs) were sourced from IMbrave150. The Guyot method was considered as a scenario analysis by integrating retrospective real-world data extracted from the French Health Insurance Database to refine long term survival extrapolations. RESULTS: In the reference case, ATZ+BVA was associated with 0.61 additional Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) compared to sorafenib (1.95 vs 1.35), and an incremental cost of €92,704. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was 152,974 €/QALY gained. Adjusting the survival curves with French external evidence led to a 14% ICUR reduction (131,163 €/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: ATZ+BVA is a cost-effective strategy based on the range recently published for the value of a QALY in France and offers better chances of survival to patients.

Integrating genetic variants into clinical models for hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification in cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance strategies. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the ability of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to refine HCC risk stratification. METHODS: Six SNPs in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13, APOE, and MBOAT7 affecting lipid turnover and one variant involved in the Wnt-ß-catenin pathway (WNT3A-WNT9A rs708113) were assessed in patients with alcohol-related and/or HCV-cured cirrhosis included in HCC surveillance programmes (prospective CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts). Their prognostic value for HCC occurrence was assessed using Fine-Gray models combined into a 7-SNP genetic risk score (GRS). The predictive ability of two clinical scores (a routine non-genetic model determined by multivariate analysis and the external aMAP score) with/without the GRS was evaluated by C-indices. The standardised net benefit was derived from decision curves. RESULTS: Among 1,145 patients, 86 (7.5%) developed HCC after 43.7 months. PNPLA3 and WNT3A-WNT9A variants were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The GRS stratified the population into three groups with progressively increased 5-year HCC incidence (Group 1 [n = 627, 5.4%], Group 2 [n = 276, 10.7%], and Group 3 [n = 242, 15.3%]; p <0.001). The multivariate model identified age, male sex, diabetes, platelet count, gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, albuminemia and the GRS as independent risk factors. The clinical model performance for 5-year HCC prediction was similar to that of the aMAP score (C-Index 0.769). The addition of the GRS to both scores modestly improved their performance (C-Indices of 0.786 and 0.783, respectively). This finding was confirmed by decision curve analyses showing only fair clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified into HCC risk classes by variants affecting lipid turnover and the Wnt-ß-catenin pathway. The incorporation of this genetic information modestly improves the performance of clinical scores. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The identification of patients at higher risk of developing liver cancer is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance. Risk assessment can be achieved by combining several clinical and biological parameters used in routine practice. The addition of patients' genetic characteristics can modestly improve this prediction and will ultimately pave the way for precision medicine in patients eligible for HCC surveillance, allowing physicians to trigger personalised screening strategies.