Improving Early Identification of Significant Weight Loss Using Clinical Decision Support System in Lung Cancer Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: Early identification of patients who may be at high risk of significant weight loss (SWL) is important for timely clinical intervention in lung cancer radiotherapy (RT). A clinical decision support system (CDSS) for SWL prediction was implemented within the routine clinical workflow and assessed on a prospective cohort of patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: CDSS incorporated a machine learning prediction model on the basis of radiomics and dosiomics image features and was connected to a web-based dashboard for streamlined patient enrollment, feature extraction, SWL prediction, and physicians' evaluation processes. Patients with lung cancer (N = 37) treated with definitive RT without prior RT were prospectively enrolled in the study. Radiomics and dosiomics features were extracted from CT and 3D dose volume, and SWL probability (≥ 0.5 considered as SWL) was predicted. Two physicians predicted whether the patient would have SWL before and after reviewing the CDSS prediction. The physician's prediction performance without and with CDSS and prediction changes before and after using CDSS were compared. RESULTS: CDSS showed significantly better prediction accuracy than physicians (0.73 v 0.54) with higher specificity (0.81 v 0.50) but with lower sensitivity (0.55 v 0.64). Physicians changed their original prediction after reviewing CDSS prediction for four cases (three correctly and one incorrectly), for all of which CDSS prediction was correct. Physicians' prediction was improved with CDSS in accuracy (0.54-0.59), sensitivity (0.64-0.73), specificity (0.50-0.54), positive predictive value (0.35-0.40), and negative predictive value (0.76-0.82). CONCLUSION: Machine learning-based CDSS showed the potential to improve SWL prediction in lung cancer RT. More investigation on a larger patient cohort is needed to properly interpret CDSS prediction performance and its benefit in clinical decision making.

Utility of a Clinical Decision Support System in Weight Loss Prediction After Head and Neck Cancer Radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the utility of a clinical decision support system (CDSS) using a weight loss prediction model. METHODS: A prediction model for significant weight loss (loss of greater than or equal to 7.5% of body mass at 3-month post radiotherapy) was created with clinical, dosimetric, and radiomics predictors from 63 patients in an independent training data set (accuracy, 0.78; area under the curve [AUC], 0.81) using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. Four physicians with varying experience levels were then recruited to evaluate 100 patients in an independent validation data set of head and neck cancer twice (ie, a pre-post design): first without and then with the aid of a CDSS derived from the prediction model. At both evaluations, physicians were asked to predict the development (yes/no) and probability of significant weight loss for each patient on the basis of patient characteristics, including pretreatment dysphagia and weight loss and information from the treatment plan. At the second evaluation, physicians were also provided with the prediction model's results for weight loss probability. Physicians' predictions were compared with actual weight loss, and accuracy and AUC were investigated between the two evaluations. RESULTS: The mean accuracy of the physicians' ability to identify patients who will experience significant weight loss (yes/no) increased from 0.58 (range, 0.47 to 0.63) to 0.63 (range, 0.58 to 0.72) with the CDSS ( P = .06). The AUC of weight loss probability predicted by physicians significantly increased from 0.56 (range, 0.46 to 0.64) to 0.69 (range, 0.63 to 0.73) with the aid of the CDSS ( P < .05). Specifically, more improvement was observed among less-experienced physicians ( P < .01). CONCLUSION: Our preliminary results demonstrate that physicians' decisions may be improved by a weight loss CDSS model, especially among less-experienced physicians. Additional study with a larger cohort of patients and more participating physicians is thus warranted for understanding the usefulness of CDSSs.

The Needs and Benefits of Continuous Model Updates on the Accuracy of RT-Induced Toxicity Prediction Models Within a Learning Health System.

PURPOSE: Clinical data collection and development of outcome prediction models by machine learning can form the foundation for a learning health system offering precision radiation therapy. However, changes in clinical practice over time can affect the measures and patient outcomes and, hence, the collected data. We hypothesize that regular prediction model updates and continuous prospective data collection are important to prevent the degradation of a model's predication accuracy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Clinical and dosimetric data from head and neck patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy from 2008 to 2015 were prospectively collected as a routine clinical workflow and anonymized for this analysis. Prediction models for grade ≥2 xerostomia at 3 to 6 months of follow-up were developed by bivariate logistic regression using the dose-volume histogram of parotid and submandibular glands. A baseline prediction model was developed with a training data set from 2008 to 2009. The selected predictor variables and coefficients were updated by 4 different model updating methods. (A) The prediction model was updated by using only recent 2-year data and applied to patients in the following test year. (B) The model was updated by increasing the training data set yearly. (C) The model was updated by increasing the training data set on the condition that the area under the curve (AUC) of the recent test year was less than 0.6. (D) The model was not updated. The AUC of the test data set was compared among the 4 model updating methods. RESULTS: Dose to parotid and submandibular glands and grade of xerostomia showed decreasing trends over the years (2008-2015, 297 patients; P < .001). The AUC of predicting grade ≥2 xerostomia for the initial training data set (2008-2009, 41 patients) was 0.6196. The AUC for the test data set (2010-2015, 256 patients) decreased to 0.5284 when the initial model was not updated (D). However, the AUC was significantly improved by model updates (A: 0.6164; B: 0.6084; P < .05). When the model was conditionally updated, the AUC was 0.6072 (C). CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary results demonstrate that updating prediction models with prospective data collection is effective for maintaining the performance of xerostomia prediction. This suggests that a machine learning framework can handle the dynamic changes in a radiation oncology clinical practice and may be an important component for the construction of a learning health system.

Needs and Challenges for Radiation Oncology in the Era of Precision Medicine.

Modern medicine, including the care of the cancer patient, has significantly advanced, with the evidence-based medicine paradigm serving to guide clinical care decisions. Yet we now also recognize the tremendous heterogeneity not only of disease states but of the patient and his or her environment as it influences treatment outcomes and toxicities. These reasons and many others have led to a reevaluation of the generalizability of randomized trials and growing interest in accounting for this heterogeneity under the rubric of precision medicine as it relates to personalizing clinical care predictions, decisions, and therapy for the disease state. For the cancer patient treated with radiation therapy, characterizing the spatial treatment heterogeneity has been a fundamental tenet of routine clinical care facilitated by established database and imaging platforms. Leveraging these platforms to further characterize and collate all clinically relevant sources of heterogeneity that affect the longitudinal health outcomes of the irradiated cancer patient provides an opportunity to generate a critical informatics infrastructure on which precision radiation therapy may be realized. In doing so, data science-driven insight discoveries, personalized clinical decisions, and the potential to accelerate translational efforts may be realized ideally within a network of institutions with locally developed yet coordinated informatics infrastructures. The path toward realizing these goals has many needs and challenges, which we summarize, with many still to be realized and understood. Early efforts by our group have identified the feasibility of this approach using routine clinical data sets and offer promise that this transformation can be successfully realized in radiation oncology.

Improving prediction of surgical resectability over current staging guidelines in patients with pancreatic cancer who receive stereotactic body radiation therapy.

PURPOSE: For patients with localized pancreatic cancer (PC) with vascular involvement, prediction of resectability is critical to define optimal treatment. However, the current definitions of borderline resectable (BR) and locally advanced (LA) disease leave considerable heterogeneity in outcomes within these classifications. Moreover, factors beyond vascular involvement likely affect the ability to undergo resection. Herein, we share our experience developing a model that incorporates detailed radiologic, patient, and treatment factors to predict surgical resectability in patients with BR and LA PC who undergo stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients with BR or LA PC who were treated with SBRT between 2010 and 2016 were included. The primary endpoint was margin negative resection, and predictors included age, sex, race, treatment year, performance status, initial staging, tumor volume and location, baseline and pre-SBRT carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels, chemotherapy regimen and duration, and radiation dose. In addition, we characterized the relationship between tumors and key arteries (superior mesenteric, celiac, and common hepatic arteries), using overlap volume histograms derived from computed tomography data. A classification and regression tree was built, and leave-one-out cross-validation was performed. Prediction of surgical resection was compared between our model and staging in accordance with the National Comprehensive Care Network guidelines using McNemar's test. RESULTS: A total of 191 patients were identified (128 patients with LA and 63 with BR), of which 87 patients (46%) underwent margin negative resection. The median total dose was 33 Gy. Predictors included the chemotherapy regimen, amount of arterial involvement, and age. Importantly, radiation dose that covers 95% of gross tumor volume (GTV D95), was a key predictor of resectability in certain subpopulations, and the model showed improved accuracy in the prediction of margin negative resection compared with National Comprehensive Care Network guideline staging (75% vs 63%; P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the ability to improve prediction of surgical resectabiliy beyond the current staging guidelines, which highlights the value of assessing vascular involvement in a continuous manner. In addition, we show an association between radiation dose and resectability, which suggests the potential importance of radiation to allow for resection in certain populations. External data are needed for validation and to increase the robustness of the model.

Evaluation of classification and regression tree (CART) model in weight loss prediction following head and neck cancer radiation therapy.

OBJECTIVE: We explore whether a knowledge-discovery approach building a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) prediction model for weight loss (WL) in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with radiation therapy (RT) is feasible. METHODS AND MATERIALS: HNC patients from 2007 to 2015 were identified from a prospectively collected database Oncospace. Two prediction models at different time points were developed to predict weight loss ≥5 kg at 3 months post-RT by CART algorithm: (1) during RT planning using patient demographic, delineated dose data, planning target volume-organs at risk shape relationships data and (2) at the end of treatment (EOT) using additional on-treatment toxicities and quality of life data. RESULTS: Among 391 patients identified, WL predictors during RT planning were International Classification of Diseases diagnosis; dose to masticatory and superior constrictor muscles, larynx, and parotid; and age. At EOT, patient-reported oral intake, diagnosis, N stage, nausea, pain, dose to larynx, parotid, and low-dose planning target volume-larynx distance were significant predictive factors. The area under the curve during RT and EOT was 0.773 and 0.821, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the feasibility and potential value of an informatics infrastructure that has facilitated insight into the prediction of WL using the CART algorithm. The prediction accuracy significantly improved with the inclusion of additional treatment-related data and has the potential to be leveraged as a strategy to develop a learning health system.

Using Big Data Analytics to Advance Precision Radiation Oncology.

Big clinical data analytics as a primary component of precision medicine is discussed, identifying where these emerging tools fit in the spectrum of genomics and radiomics research. A learning health system (LHS) is conceptualized that uses clinically acquired data with machine learning to advance the initiatives of precision medicine. The LHS is comprehensive and can be used for clinical decision support, discovery, and hypothesis derivation. These developing uses can positively impact the ultimate management and therapeutic course for patients. The conceptual model for each use of clinical data, however, is different, and an overview of the implications is discussed. With advancements in technologies and culture to improve the efficiency, accuracy, and breadth of measurements of the patient condition, the concept of an LHS may be realized in precision radiation therapy.