APOBEC3 deaminase editing in mpox virus as evidence for sustained human transmission since at least 2016.

Historically, mpox has been characterized as an endemic zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host in West and Central Africa. However, in May 2022, human cases of mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, they shared 42 nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) previously sampled. Nearly all these mutations are characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases, host enzymes with antiviral function. Assuming APOBEC3 editing is characteristic of human MPXV infection, we developed a dual-process phylogenetic molecular clock that-inferring a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year-estimates that MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. These observations of sustained MPXV transmission present a fundamental shift to the perceived paradigm of MPXV epidemiology as a zoonosis and highlight the need for revising public health messaging around MPXV as well as outbreak management and control.

Distinct monkeypox virus lineages co-circulating in humans before 2022.

The 2022 global mpox outbreak raises questions about how this zoonotic disease established effective human-to-human transmission and its potential for further adaptation. The 2022 outbreak virus is related to an ongoing outbreak in Nigeria originally reported in 2017, but the evolutionary path linking the two remains unclear due to a lack of genomic data between 2018, when virus exportations from Nigeria were first recorded, and 2022, when the global mpox outbreak began. Here, 18 viral genomes obtained from patients across southern Nigeria in 2019-2020 reveal multiple lineages of monkeypox virus (MPXV) co-circulated in humans for several years before 2022, with progressive accumulation of mutations consistent with APOBEC3 activity over time. We identify Nigerian A.2 lineage isolates, confirming the lineage that has been multiply exported to North America independently of the 2022 outbreak originated in Nigeria, and that it has persisted by human-to-human transmission in Nigeria for more than 2 years before its latest exportation. Finally, we identify a lineage-defining APOBEC3-style mutation in all A.2 isolates that disrupts gene A46R, encoding a viral innate immune modulator. Collectively, our data demonstrate MPXV capacity for sustained diversification within humans, including mutations that may be consistent with established mechanisms of poxvirus adaptation.

Case Report: Recurrent Mpox in a Healthcare Worker in Nigeria.

We report the first case of recurrent Mpox from Africa. The patient is a 36-year-old, previously healthy, HIV-negative male healthcare worker who developed two episodes of laboratory-confirmed Mpox in 2017 and 2018, 9 months apart. In both cases, he had prior close contact with confirmed Mpox cases in the hospital setting. On follow-up in 2022, he also reported recurrent postcoital skin eruptions over a previously healed genital scar from the first episode of Mpox. We highlight the need for future studies to investigate the true burden and risk factors for Mpox reinfection, relapse, and recrudescence.

SARS-CoV-2 variants-associated outbreaks of COVID-19 in a tertiary institution, North-Central Nigeria: Implications for epidemic control.

The COVID-19 global pandemic is being driven by evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants with consequential implications on virus transmissibility, host immunity, and disease severity. Continuous molecular and genomic surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 variants is therefore necessary for public health interventions toward the management of the pandemic. This study is a retrospective analysis of COVID-19 cases reported in a Nigerian tertiary institution from July to December 2021. In total, 705 suspected COVID-19 cases that comprised 547 students and 158 non-students were investigated by real time PCR (RT-PCR); of which 372 (~52.8%) tested positive for COVID-19. Using a set of selection criteria, 74 (~19.9%) COVID-19 positive samples were selected for next generation sequencing. Data showed that there were two outbreaks of COVID-19 within the university community over the study period, during which more females (56.8%) tested positive than males (47.8%) (p<0.05). Clinical data together with phylogenetic analysis suggested community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through mostly asymptomatic and/or pre-symptomatic individuals. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were mostly mild, however, SARS-CoV-2 delta (77%) and omicron (4.1%) variants were implicated as major drivers of respective waves of infections during the study period. This study highlights the importance of integrated surveillance of communicable disease during outbreaks.

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.

Urgent need for a non-discriminatory and non-stigmatizing nomenclature for monkeypox virus.

We propose a novel, non-discriminatory classification of monkeypox virus diversity. Together with the World Health Organization, we named three clades (I, IIa and IIb) in order of detection. Within IIb, the cause of the current global outbreak, we identified multiple lineages (A.1, A.2, A.1.1 and B.1) to support real-time genomic surveillance.

Pathogens that Cause Illness Clinically Indistinguishable from Lassa Fever, Nigeria, 2018.

During the 2018 Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria, samples from patients with suspected Lassa fever but negative Lassa virus PCR results were processed through custom gene expression array cards and metagenomic sequencing. Results demonstrated no single etiology, but bacterial and viral pathogens (including mixed co-infections) were detected.

Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND: With reports of surges in COVID-19 case numbers across over 50 countries, country-level epidemiological analysis is required to inform context-appropriate response strategies for containment and mitigation of the outbreak. We aimed to compare the epidemiological features of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System data of the first and second epidemiological waves, which were between 27 February and 24 October 2020, and 25 October 2020 to 3 April 2021, respectively. Descriptive statistical measures including frequencies and percentages, test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality rates (CFRs) were compared. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were carried out in STATA V.13. RESULTS: There were 802 143 tests recorded during the study period (362 550 and 439 593 in the first and second waves, respectively). Of these, 66 121 (18.2%) and 91 644 (20.8%) tested positive in the first and second waves, respectively. There was a 21.3% increase in the number of tests conducted in the second wave with TPR increasing by 14.3%. CI during the first and second waves were 30.3/100 000 and 42.0/100 000 respectively. During the second wave, confirmed COVID-19 cases increased among females and people 30 years old or younger and decreased among urban residents and individuals with travel history within 14 days of sample collection (p value <0.001). Most confirmed cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis during both waves: 74.9% in the first wave; 79.7% in the second wave. CFR decreased during the second wave (0.7%) compared with the first wave (1.8%). CONCLUSION: Nigeria experienced a larger but less severe second wave of COVID-19. Continued implementation of public health and social measures is needed to mitigate the resurgence of another wave.

Considerations for quality assurance of multiplex malaria antigen detection assays with large sample sets.

Multiplex assays for malaria antigen detection can gather data from large sample sets, but considerations for the consistency and quality assurance (QA) of mass testing lack evaluation. We present a QA framework for a study occurring November 2019 to March 2020 involving 504 assay plates detecting four Plasmodium antigens: pan-Plasmodium aldolase and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), P. vivax LDH (PvLDH). Controls on each plate included buffer blank, antigen negative blood, and 4-point positive dilution curve. The blank and negative blood provided consistently low signal for all targets except for pAldolase, which showed variability. Positive curve signals decreased throughout the 5-month study duration but retained a coefficient of variation (CV) of < 5%, with the exception of HRP2 in month 5 (CV of 11%). Regression fittings for inter-plate control signals provided mean and standard deviations (SDs), and of 504 assay plates, 6 (1.2%) violated the acceptable deviation limits and were repeated. For the 40,272 human blood samples assayed in this study, of 161,088 potential data points (each sample × 4 antigens), 160,641 (99.7%) successfully passed quality checks. The QA framework presented here can be utilized to ensure quality of laboratory antigen detection for large sample sets.

Comparative performance of SARS-CoV-2 real-time PCR diagnostic assays on samples from Lagos, Nigeria.

A key element in containing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection is quality diagnostics which is affected by several factors. We now report the comparative performance of five real-time diagnostic assays. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained from persons seeking a diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Lagos, Nigeria. The comparison was performed on the same negative, low, and high-positive sample set, with viral RNA extracted using the Qiagen Viral RNA Kit. All five assays are one-step reverse transcriptase real-time PCR assays. Testing was done according to each assay's manufacturer instructions for use using real-time PCR platforms. 63 samples were tested using the five qPCR assays, comprising of 15 negative samples, 15 positive samples (Ct = 16-30; one Ct = 35), and 33 samples with Tib MolBiol E-gene Ct value ranging from 36-41. All assays detected all high positive samples correctly. Three assays correctly identified all negative samples while two assays each failed to correctly identify one different negative sample. The consistent detection of positive samples at different Ct/Cq values gives an indication of when to repeat testing and/or establish more stringent in-house cut-off value. The varied performance of different diagnostic assays, mostly with emergency use approvals, for a novel virus is expected. Comparative assays' performance reported may guide laboratories to determine both their repeat testing Ct/Cq range and/or cut-off value.