The Incremental Cost of Incompatible Living Donor Kidney Transplantation: A National Cohort Analysis.

Incompatible living donor kidney transplantation (ILDKT) has been established as an effective option for end-stage renal disease patients with willing but HLA-incompatible living donors, reducing mortality and improving quality of life. Depending on antibody titer, ILDKT can require highly resource-intensive procedures, including intravenous immunoglobulin, plasma exchange, and/or cell-depleting antibody treatment, as well as protocol biopsies and donor-specific antibody testing. This study sought to compare the cost and Medicare reimbursement, exclusive of organ acquisition payment, for ILDKT (n = 926) with varying antibody titers to matched compatible transplants (n = 2762) performed between 2002 and 2011. Data were assembled from a national cohort study of ILDKT and a unique data set linking hospital cost accounting data and Medicare claims. ILDKT was more expensive than matched compatible transplantation, ranging from 20% higher adjusted costs for positive on Luminex assay but negative flow cytometric crossmatch, 26% higher for positive flow cytometric crossmatch but negative cytotoxic crossmatch, and 39% higher for positive cytotoxic crossmatch (p < 0.0001 for all). ILDKT was associated with longer median length of stay (12.9 vs. 7.8 days), higher Medicare payments ($91 330 vs. $63 782 p < 0.0001), and greater outlier payments. In conclusion, ILDKT increases the cost of and payments for kidney transplantation.

Quantifying the risk of incompatible kidney transplantation: a multicenter study.

Incompatible live donor kidney transplantation (ILDKT) offers a survival advantage over dialysis to patients with anti-HLA donor-specific antibody (DSA). Program-specific reports (PSRs) fail to account for ILDKT, placing this practice at regulatory risk. We collected DSA data, categorized as positive Luminex, negative flow crossmatch (PLNF) (n = 185), positive flow, negative cytotoxic crossmatch (PFNC) (n = 536) or positive cytotoxic crossmatch (PCC) (n = 304), from 22 centers. We tested associations between DSA, graft loss and mortality after adjusting for PSR model factors, using 9669 compatible patients as a comparison. PLNF patients had similar graft loss; however, PFNC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-2.23, p = 0.007) and PCC (aHR = 5.01, 95% CI: 3.71-6.77, p < 0.001) were associated with increased graft loss in the first year. PLNF patients had similar mortality; however, PFNC (aHR = 2.04; 95% CI: 1.28-3.26; p = 0.003) and PCC (aHR = 4.59; 95% CI: 2.98-7.07; p < 0.001) were associated with increased mortality. We simulated Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services flagging to examine ILDKT's effect on the risk of being flagged. Compared to equal-quality centers performing no ILDKT, centers performing 5%, 10% or 20% PFNC had a 1.19-, 1.33- and 1.73-fold higher odds of being flagged. Centers performing 5%, 10% or 20% PCC had a 2.22-, 4.09- and 10.72-fold higher odds. Failure to account for ILDKT's increased risk places centers providing this life-saving treatment in jeopardy of regulatory intervention.

Long-term survival of kidneys transplanted from live A2 donors to O and B recipients.

The long-term outcome of kidneys transplanted from blood group A(2) live donors into blood group O or B candidates is not known. From 1986 through 2006, we transplanted eight blood group O patients and one blood group B patient with kidneys from blood group A(2) live donors. Immunosuppression was no different for these patients than for ABO-compatible recipients. All patients received methylprednisolone, cyclosporine or tacrolimus and azathioprine or mycophenolate mofetil with or without antibody induction (monoclonal or polyclonal). Of the nine live-donor A(2) to O and B transplants performed, seven grafts remain functioning. One of those seven was lost to follow-up at 9.2 years with a functioning kidney. Of the remaining six patients, length of follow-up is 10.4, 6.5, 5.3, 4, 2.1 and 1 years. Of the two patients who lost their grafts, one died with a functioning graft (DWFG) at 8.8 years and one lost his graft at 13.2 years due to noncompliance with immunosuppression. These data show that good long-term graft survival can be expected in live-donor A(2) to O and B transplantation despite some of those patients experiencing the type of clinical problems seen with ABO-compatible transplants.

Model selection and mixed-effects modeling of HIV infection dynamics.

We present an introduction to a model selection methodology and an application to mathematical models of in vivo HIV infection dynamics. We consider six previously published deterministic models and compare them with respect to their ability to represent HIV-infected patients undergoing reverse transcriptase mono-therapy. In the creation of the statistical model, a hierarchical mixed-effects modeling approach is employed to characterize the inter- and intra-individual variability in the patient population. We estimate the population parameters in a maximum likelihood function formulation, which is then used to calculate information theory based model selection criteria, providing a ranking of the abilities of the various models to represent patient data. The parameter fits generated by these models, furthermore, provide statistical support for the higher viral clearance rate c in Louie et al. [AIDS 17:1151-1156, 2003]. Among the candidate models, our results suggest which mathematical structures, e.g., linear versus nonlinear, best describe the data we are modeling and illustrate a framework for others to consider when modeling infectious diseases.

Organ donation and utilization, 1995-2004: entering the collaborative era.

Continued progress in organ donation will help enable transplantation to alleviate the increasing incidence of end-stage organ disease. This article discusses the implementation and effect of the federally initiated Organ Donation Breakthrough Collaborative; it then reviews organ donation data, living and deceased, from 1995 to 2004. It is the first annual report of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients to include national data following initiation of the collaborative in 2003. Prior to that, annual growth in deceased donation was 2%-4%; in 2004, after initiation of the collaborative, deceased donation increased 11%. Identification and dissemination of best practices for organ donation have emphasized new strategies for improved consent, including revised approaches to minority participation, timing of requests and team design. The number of organs recovered from donation after cardiac death (DCD) grew from 64 in 1995 to 391 in 2004. While efforts are ongoing to develop methodologies for identifying expanded criteria donors (ECD) for organs other than kidney, it is clear DCD and ECD raise questions regarding cost and recovery. The number of living donor organs increased from 3493 in 1995 to 7002 in 2004; data show trends toward more living unrelated donors and those providing non-directed donations.

Estimating kinetic parameters from HIV primary infection data through the eyes of three different mathematical models.

The dynamics of HIV-1 infection consist of three distinct phases starting with primary infection, then latency and finally AIDS or drug therapy. In this paper we model the dynamics of primary infection and the beginning of latency. We show that allowing for time delays in the model better predicts viral load data when compared to models with no time delays. We also find that our model of primary infection predicts the turnover rates for productively infected T cells and viral totals to be much longer than compared to data from patients receiving anti-viral drug therapy. Hence the dynamics of the infection can change dramatically from one stage to the next. However, we also show that with the data available the results are highly sensitive to the chosen model. We compare the results using analysis and Monte Carlo techniques for three different models and show how each predicts rather dramatic differences between the fitted parameters. We show, using a chi(2) test, that these differences between models are statistically significant and using a jackknifing method, we find the confidence intervals for the parameters. These differences in parameter estimations lead to widely varying conclusions about HIV pathogenesis. For instance, we find in our model with time delays the existence of a Hopf bifurcation that leads to sustained oscillations and that these oscillations could simulate the rapid turnover between viral strains and the appropriate CTL response necessary to control the virus, similar to that of a predator-prey type system.

Sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear lumped parameter model of HIV infection dynamics.

A formal sensitivity analysis is performed on a delay differential equation model for the viral dynamics of an in vivo HIV infection during protease inhibitor therapy. We present results of both a differential analysis as well as a principle component based analysis and provide evidence that suggests the exact times at which specific parameters have the most influence over the solution. We offer insight into the pairwise mathematical relationships between the productively infected T-cell death rate delta, the viral plasma clearance rate c, and the time delay tau between infection and viral production as they relate to the viral dynamics. The results support the claim that the presence of a nonzero delay has a major impact on the model dynamics. Lastly, we comment upon the inadequacies of an alternative principle component based analysis.

Point-of-care testing in an organ procurement organization donor management setting.

PURPOSE: Our organ procurement organization (OPO) evaluated the clinical and financial efficacy of point-of-care testing (POCT) in management of our deceased organ donors. METHODS: Before we implemented point-of care testing with the i-STAT into routine clinical donor management, we compared the i-STAT result with the result from the respective donor hospital lab (DHL) for certain analytes on 15 consecutive donors in our OPO from 26 March to 14 May 2001. The financial impact was studied by reviewing 77 donors from July 2001 to March 2002. RESULTS: There was a strong correlation for each analyte between the POC and DHL test results with r-values as follows: pH 0.86; PCO2 = 0.96; PO2 = 0.98; sodium = 0.98; potassium = 0.95; chloride = 0.94; BUN = 0.98; glucose = 0.92; haematocrit = 0.87 and creatinine = 0.95. Since our OPO coordinators began using i-STAT in their routine clinical management of organ donors, they can now more quickly maximize oxygenation and fluid management of the donor and make extra-renal placement calls sooner. Finally, since we are no longer being billed for the testing performed on the i-STAT, average financial savings to our OPO are US dollars 733 per case. CONCLUSIONS: Point-of-care testing in management of our OPO donors provides a result that is equivalent to that of the donor hospital lab, has quicker turn-around time than the donor hospital laboratory, allowing more immediate clinical management decisions to be made so that extra-renal offers may begin sooner.

Effect of drug efficacy and the eclipse phase of the viral life cycle on estimates of HIV viral dynamic parameters.

Fits of mathematic models to the decline in HIV-1 RNA after antiretroviral therapies have yielded estimates for the life span of productively infected cells of 1 to 2 days. In a previous report, we described the mathematic properties of an extended model that accounts for imperfect viral suppression and the eclipse phase of the viral life cycle (the intracellular delay between initial infection and release of progeny virions). In this article, we fit this extended model to detailed data on the decline of plasma HIV-1 RNA after treatment with the protease inhibitor ritonavir. Because the therapy in this study was most likely not completely suppressive, we allowed the drug efficacy parameter to vary from 70% to 100%. Estimates for the clearance rate of free virus, c, increased with the addition of the intracellular delay (as reported previously) but were not appreciably affected by changes in the drug efficacy parameter. By contrast, the estimated death rate of virus-producing cells, delta, increased from an average of 0.49 day-1 to 0.90 day-1 (an increase of 84%) because the drug efficacy parameter was reduced from 100% to 70%. Neglecting the intracellular delay, the comparable increase in delta was only about 55%. The inferred increases in delta doubled when the model was extended to account for possible increases in target cell densities after treatment initiation. This work suggests that estimates for delta may be greater than previously reported and that the half-life of a cell in vivo that is producing virus, on average, may be 1 day.

Cold ischemia time: an independent predictor of increased HLA class I antibody production after rejection of a primary cadaveric renal allograft.

BACKGROUND: Cadaveric kidneys experiencing longer cold ischemia time (CIT) are associated with higher levels of delayed graft function, acute rejection, and early graft loss. One mechanism to explain these results is that ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury makes the allograft more immunogenic by upregulating molecules involved in the immune response (e.g., HLA Class I/II). METHODS: We evaluated the influence of CIT on the production of HLA Class I antibody level, measured by an antihuman globulin panel reactive antibody (AHG PRA) level, in 90 unsensitized recipients of primary cadaveric renal transplants (from a total of 1442 between 1985 and 1997) who rejected their kidneys. RESULTS: By multivariate analysis, a CIT of 15 hr or more (vs. < 15 hr) independently increased the risk of the AHG Class I PRA level being > or = 20% after unsensitized patients rejected their first kidneys (relative risk=3.57; 95% confidence interval=1.26 to 10.14; P=0.01), despite the same degree of Class I/II mismatch between the two CIT groups. The overall mean peak PRA level after primary kidney rejection was significantly lower for the CIT < 15 hr group (25.9%+/-33.9; n=24) compared with the CIT > or = 15 hr group (46.3%+/-36.5; n=66) (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Longer CIT induces a humorally more immunogenic kidney.

The influence of age, gender and ethnicity on cadaveric organ recovery rate.

In view of the influence of donor factors such as age on graft outcome and the performance standards that measure OPO productivity by the number of organs recovered and transplanted, it is important to understand the relationship of certain donor factors on organ recovery for transplantation from cadaveric donors. We examined the influence of donor age, gender and ethnicity on the number and type of transplanted organs recovered from 598 consecutive cadaveric donors in our OPO between 1994 and July 1999. The highest number of organs/donor ocurs in the 11-20 donor age range and declines significantly with each age range. The type of organ recovered is also influenced by age, but the least effect is on liver recovery. No difference was seen in the number of organs recovered/donor by race. When the data were re-analyzed with regard to renal and extra-renal organs transplanted/million donor population, 78% of the kidneys (n=781/1006) were from the 11-50 age range and 81% of the extra-renal organs (n=822/1,192) were from that age range. Stepwise regression yielded a model where donor age significantly influenced (P=0.001) the number of organs recovered. Finally, the incidence of recovered and transplanted organs was significantly higher in males compared with females for hearts [51% (187/360) vs. 40% (86/214); P<0.006] and pancreata [18% (66/360) vs. 11% (24/214); P<0.02]. The number of organs recovered and transplanted from cadaveric organ donors is influenced predominantly by the age of the donor, with the exception being liver donors. Increasing organ recovery and transplantation of organs from donors from the two age extremes results in less gain in the number of organs/million population than recovery from the 11-50 age range.

IgM antibodies identified by a DTT-ameliorated positive crossmatch do not influence renal graft outcome but the strength of the IgM lymphocytotoxicity is associated with DR phenotype.

A positive crossmatch that is rendered negative by treating the serum with the IgM-reducing agent dithiothreitol (DTT) is generally reported not to influence short-term renal graft outcome. Its effect on long-term (> or = 3 years) cadaveric and live-donor transplant function, however, is less clear. We evaluated the effect of IgM antibodies in a DTT-ameliorated positive crossmatch (DTT-APXM) on long-term renal graft outcome in 1,290 consecutive cadaveric renal transplants (8-year survival) and 384 live-donor renal transplants (7-year survival) from patients transplanted between 1990 and 1999. The data show that 1- and 8-year graft survival for cadaveric renal transplants in patients with IgM antibodies (n=72) (DWFG censored = 91% and 65%; DWFG not censored = 90% and 60%) was not significantly different from the group without IgM antibodies (n = 1,218) (DWFG censored = 92% and 71%; DWFG not censored = 87% and 55%) (log-rank = 0.25 for DWFG censored, log-rank = 0.92 for DWFG not censored). The one- and seven-year graft survival for live-donor renal transplants in patients with IgM antibodies seen in a DTT-APXM (n = 22) (DWFG censored = 95% and 83%; DWFG not censored = 95% and 66%) was not significantly different from the group without IgM antibodies (n = 362) (DWFG censored = 94% and 81%; DWFG not censored = 92% and 73%) (log-rank = 0.61 for DWFG censored, log-rank = 0.89 for DWFG not censored). DR phenotype was found to be associated with the strong (>40% cell death) IgM reactivity in both black and white patients. In white patients, DR2 was more frequently seen with a strong IgM crossmatch (48.2%) than in molecularly typed controls (28.5%) (P < 0.03) and concomitant with that DR increase, DR4 was decreased in white patients (6.8%) compared with controls (25.5%) (P < 0.02). In black patients with strong IgM reactivity, DR6 was increased in patients (46.1%) compared with controls (20.5%) (P = 0.07) and concomitant with that DR6 increase, DR5 was decreased in frequency in black patients (7.6%) compared with controls (41%) (P < 0.03). These data show that long-term graft survival in renal transplantation is not negatively influenced by the presence of donor-reactive lymphocytotoxic antibodies in the crossmatch ameliorated by serum DTT treatment. They also suggest that the strength of the IgM antibody response is regulated in part by certain gene (s) of the DR region.

A model of HIV-1 pathogenesis that includes an intracellular delay.

Mathematical modeling combined with experimental measurements have yielded important insights into HIV-1 pathogenesis. For example, data from experiments in which HIV-infected patients are given potent antiretroviral drugs that perturb the infection process have been used to estimate kinetic parameters underlying HIV infection. Many of the models used to analyze data have assumed drug treatments to be completely efficacious and that upon infection a cell instantly begins producing virus. We consider a model that allows for less then perfect drug effects and which includes a delay in the initiation of virus production. We present detailed analysis of this delay differential equation model and compare the results to a model without delay. Our analysis shows that when drug efficacy is less than 100%, as may be the case in vivo, the predicted rate of decline in plasma virus concentration depends on three factors: the death rate of virus producing cells, the efficacy of therapy, and the length of the delay. Thus, previous estimates of infected cell loss rates can be improved upon by considering more realistic models of viral infection.

Successful cadaveric renal transplantation of patients highly sensitized to HLA Class I antigens.

The purpose of our investigation was to evaluate long-term graft survival and the role of histocompatibility in patients who were highly sensitized to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) Class I antigens and received a cadaveric renal transplant. Our multi-institutional study evaluated 7-yr graft outcomes and the histocompatibility requirements of 61 (6.1%) highly sensitized (anti-human globulin panel reactive antibody [AHG PRA], > or = 80%) cadaveric renal transplantation patients, transplanted between 1988 and 1997, among 999 consecutive cadaveric renal transplants. One- and 7-yr graft survival in the high PRA group (n = 61) was 76 and 59%, and was not significantly different from that in the low PRA group (n = 938), 86 and 59% (Wilcoxon = 0.11; log-rank = 0.45) (died with a functioning graft [DWFG] not censored). When those data were divided into primary and regrafts, 1- and 7-yr graft outcomes for high and low PRA groups were not significantly different [(primary, 1- and 7-yr survival: high PRA = 83 and 74%, n = 30, and low PRA = 87 and 61%, n = 825; log-rank = 0.37 for DWFG not censored) (regrafts, 1- and 7-yr survival: high PRA = 70 and 42%, n = 31, and low PRA = 80 and 43%, n = 113; log-rank = 0.36 for DWFG not censored)]. We did observe a subgroup of the high PRA patient group that had inferior graft outcomes. Graft outcome at 1 and 6 yr in the high PRA group for patients who had one to two DR mismatches (65 and 50%, n = 41) was significantly worse than for high PRA patients who had zero DR mismatches with their donors (100 and 78%, n = 20) (log-rank = 0.01 for DWFG not censored). Furthermore, the mean number of HLA-A and -B mismatches was significantly greater in the high PRA/DR-mismatched group (1.7 +/- 1.2, n = 41) compared with the high PRA/zero DR-mismatched group (0.5 +/- 1.1, n = 19) (p < 0.001). Overall, these data suggest that the patient who is highly sensitized to HLA Class I antigens has a long-term graft outcome that is equivalent to less sensitized patients, but that HLA-DR mismatching and a higher degree of Class I mismatching may be poor prognostic indicators in such patients.

Disk diffusion method for determining susceptibilities of Candida spp. to MK-0991.

We have developed an agar-based methodology for testing susceptibilities of Candida spp. to the new antifungal agent MK-0991, a glucan synthase inhibitor. Results obtained with this method correlated well with the results obtained by the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards M27-A broth microdilution reference method. However, as noted with prior comparisons of broth- and agar-based systems, some isolates yielded inhibition zones which were not consistent with the MICs obtained for them. Understanding the implications of these differences will require testing in an in vivo system.

Low falls: an underappreciated mechanism of injury.

OBJECTIVE: This is a retrospective study designed to evaluate the pattern and severity of injuries that result from low falls, defined as falls from less than 20 ft, subsequent mortality, and requirements of hospital resources. Our hypothesis is that many of these injuries, even without cardiopulmonary instability, are worthy of trauma center care. METHODS: The records of all patients entered into the hospital trauma registry at an urban Level I trauma center during the years 1991 through 1997 who suffered low falls and who either died after admission or were hospitalized for at least 3 days were reviewed. Patients suffering isolated hip fractures were excluded. One hundred seventy-six patients constituted the study population. This group accounts for about 2% of all admissions for falls at our institution. Patterns of injury were examined. Age, mechanism of injury, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and cardiopulmonary or neurologic instability on admission were documented. Mortality, length of intensive care unit and hospital stays, as well as billed hospital charges, were reviewed. RESULTS: The majority of patients (62%) were younger than 50 years. Sixty patients had ISS >15 and 116 patients had ISS >9. Sixty patients had multisystem injuries requiring specialty care. Head injuries were found in 81 patients (35%), and vertebral fractures or spinal cord injuries were found in 49 patients (22%), including 9 quadriplegics and 5 paraplegics. There were seven patients with intra-abdominal injuries (five spleen and two bowel injuries). There was one patient with a rupture of the thoracic aorta. Seventeen patients had deteriorating neurologic or pulmonary function on arrival, but the majority (90%) were stable. Of the 159 "stable" patients, 48 suffered head injuries, 7 were quadriplegic, and 3 were paraplegic. All intra-abdominal injuries were in this group. Overall, 14 of 176 patients (8%) died. Seven deaths were in patients older than 60 years, and seven deaths were in younger patients (p = 0.04). The majority of deaths (9 of 14) were from head trauma. Care in the intensive care unit was required in 92 of 176 patients. Nine patients had billed charges exceeding $100,000. CONCLUSION: Low falls can cause significant injuries, most commonly to the head and spine. Based on mechanism of injury alone, patients injured in low falls might not be taken to trauma centers. We have found, however, that many of these patients sustain serious multisystem injuries, even though they are stable initially. Although these patients represent only a fraction of those who fall, our study would support adjustment of triage guidelines to recommend transport of such patients, particularly elderly patients, to trauma centers.

Influence of the Rh (D) blood group system on graft survival in renal transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The Rh (D) blood group system has not traditionally been considered to be a clinically relevant histocompatibility barrier in transplantation since conflicting results of its clinical importance have been reported. METHODS: We analyzed 786 consecutive primary cadaveric renal transplants performed by transplant centers in our Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) between 1990 and 1997. We also analyzed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data on 26,469 kidney transplants done from April 1994 to June 1996. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that Rh identity between the recipient and donor was significantly related to better graft outcome (risk ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.30 to 0.61; P=0.0001). Multivariate analysis of the UNOS data revealed that the Rh -/- group may have a positive influence on graft survival with a risk ratio of 0.43 (P=0.14). CONCLUSION: Multivariate analysis of primary cadaveric renal allografts performed within the Midwest Organ Bank OPO indicates that Rh (D) is a clinically relevant histocompatibility barrier that influences 7-year graft survival.

Optimizing the correlation between results of testing in vitro and therapeutic outcome in vivo for fluconazole by testing critical isolates in a murine model of invasive candidiasis.

The trailing growth phenomenon seen when determining the susceptibilities of Candida isolates to the azole antifungal agents makes consistent endpoint determination difficult, and the M27-A method of the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards addresses this problem by requiring an 80% reduction in growth after 48 h of incubation. For some isolates, however, minor variations of this endpoint criterion can produce up to 128-fold variations in the resulting MIC. To investigate the significance of this effect, isolates of Candida that exhibited various forms of trailing growth when tested against fluconazole were identified. The isolates were examined in a murine model of invasive candidiasis and were ranked by their relative response to fluconazole by using both improvement in survival and reduction in fungal burden in the kidney. The resulting rank order of in vivo response did not match the MICs obtained by using the M27-A criterion, and these MICs significantly overestimated the resistance of three of the six isolates tested. However, if the MIC was determined after 24 h of incubation and the endpoint required a less restrictive 50% reduction in growth, MICs which better matched the in vivo response pattern could be obtained. Minor variations in the M27-A endpoint criterion are thus required to optimize the in vitro-in vivo correlation for isolates that demonstrate significant trailing growth when tested against fluconazole.