Short-term prediction of secondary progression in a sliding window: A test of a predicting algorithm in a validation cohort.

INTRODUCTION: The Multiple Sclerosis Prediction Score (MSPS, www.msprediction.com) estimates, for any month during the course of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), the individual risk of transition to secondary progression (SP) during the following year. OBJECTIVE: Internal verification of the MSPS algorithm in a derivation cohort, the Gothenburg Incidence Cohort (GIC, n = 144) and external verification in the Uppsala MS cohort (UMS, n = 145). METHODS: Starting from their second relapse, patients were included and followed for 25 years. A matrix of MSPS values was created. From this matrix, a goodness-of-fit test and suitable diagnostic plots were derived to compare MSPS-calculated and observed outcomes (i.e. transition to SP). RESULTS: The median time to SP was slightly longer in the UMS than in the GIC, 15 vs. 11.5 years (p = 0.19). The MSPS was calibrated with multiplicative factors: 0.599 for the UMS and 0.829 for the GIC; the calibrated MSPS provided a good fit between expected and observed outcomes (chi-square p = 0.61 for the UMS), which indicated the model was not rejected. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the MSPS has clinically relevant generalizability in new cohorts, provided that the MSPS was calibrated to the actual overall SP incidence in the cohort.

Diffusion tensor imaging in multiple sclerosis at different final outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: Methods to evaluate the relative contributions of demyelination vs axonal degeneration over the long-term course of MS are urgently needed. We used magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to estimate degrees of demyelination and axonal degeneration in the corpus callosum (CC) in cases of MS with different final outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We determined DTI measures mean diffusivity (MD), fractional anisotropy (FA), and axial (AD) and radial (RD) diffusivities in the CC of 31 MS patients, of whom 13 presented a secondary progressive course, 11 a non-progressive course, and seven a monophasic course. The study participants were survivors from an incidence cohort of 254 attack-onset MS patients with 50 years of longitudinal follow-up. As reference, we included five healthy individuals without significant morbidity. RESULTS: In patients with secondary progression, compared to all other groups, the corpus callosum showed increased RD and reduced FA, but no change in AD. None of the parameters exhibited differences among non-progressive and monophasic course groups and controls. CONCLUSION: Increased RD was observed in secondary progressive MS, indicating significant myelin loss. Normal RD values observed in the clinically isolated syndrome and non-progressive groups confirm their benign nature. AD was not a characterizing parameter for long-term outcome. Demyelination revealed by increased RD is a distinguishing trait for secondary progression.

A nationwide survey of the influence of month of birth on the risk of developing multiple sclerosis in Sweden and Iceland.

Previous studies have shown that the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with season of birth with a higher proportion of MS patients being born in spring. However, this relationship has recently been questioned and may be due to confounding factors. Our aim was to assess the influence from season or month of birth on the risk of developing MS in Sweden and Iceland. Information about month of birth, gender, and phenotype of MS for patients born 1940-1996 was retrieved from the Swedish MS registry (SMSR), and their place of birth was retrieved from the Swedish Total Population Registry (TPR). The corresponding information was retrieved from medical journals of Icelandic MS patients born 1981-1996. The control groups consisted of every person born in Sweden 1940-1996, their gender and county of birth (TPR), and in Iceland all persons born between 1981 and 1996 and their gender (Statistics Iceland). We calculated the expected number of MS patients born during each season and in every month and compared it with the observed number. Adjustments were made for gender, birth year, and county of birth. We included 12,020 Swedish and 108 Icelandic MS patients in the analyses. There was no significant difference between expected and observed MS births related to season or month of birth in Sweden or Iceland. This was even the results before adjustments were made for birth year and birth place. No significant differences were found in subgroup analyses including data of latitude of birth, gender, clinical phenotype, and MS onset of 30 years or less. Our results do not support the previously reported association between season or month of birth and MS risk. Analysis of birth place and birth year as possible confounding factors showed no major influence of them on the seasonal MS risk in Sweden and Iceland.

Time to secondary progression in patients with multiple sclerosis who were treated with first generation immunomodulating drugs.

BACKGROUND: It is currently unknown whether early immunomodulatory treatment in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) can delay the transition to secondary progression (SP). OBJECTIVE: To compare the time interval from onset to SP in patients with RRMS between a contemporary cohort, treated with first generation disease modifying drugs (DMDs), and a historical control cohort. METHODS: We included a cohort of contemporary RRMS patients treated with DMDs, obtained from the Swedish National MS Registry (disease onset between 1995-2004, n = 730) and a historical population-based incidence cohort (onset 1950-64, n = 186). We retrospectively analyzed the difference in time to SP, termed the "period effect" within a 12-year survival analysis, using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: We found that the "period" affected the entire severity spectrum. After adjusting for onset features, which were weaker in the contemporary material, as well as the therapy initiation time, the DMD-treated patients still exhibited a longer time to SP than the controls (hazard ratios: men, 0.32; women, 0.53). CONCLUSION: Our results showed there was a longer time to SP in the contemporary subjects given DMD. Our analyses suggested that this effect was not solely driven by the inclusion of benign cases, and it was at least partly due to the long-term immunomodulating therapy given.

Rat-mouse and rat-human comparative maps based on gene homology and high-resolution zoo-FISH.

The laboratory rat, Rattus norvegicus, and the laboratory mouse, Mus musculus, are key animal models in biomedical research. A deeper understanding of the genetic interrelationsships between Homo sapiens and these two rodent species is desirable for extending the usefulness of the animal models. We present comprehensive rat-human and rat-mouse comparative maps, based on 1090 gene homology assignments available for rat genes. Radiation hybrid, FISH, and zoo-FISH mapping data have been integrated to produce comparative maps that are estimated to comprise 83-100% of the conserved regions between rat and mouse and 66-82% of the conserved regions between rat and human. The rat-mouse zoo-FISH analysis, supported by data for individual genes, revealed nine previously undetected conserved regions compared to earlier reports. Since there is almost complete genome coverage in the rat-mouse comparative map, we conclude that it is feasible to make accurate predictions of gene positions in the rat based on gene locations in the mouse.

Genome-wide linkage analysis of Scandinavian affected sib-pairs supports presence of susceptibility loci for celiac disease on chromosomes 5 and 11.

Celiac disease (CD) is a common chronic inflammatory disorder of the small intestine with a multifactorial aetiology. HLA is a well-known risk factor, but other genetic factors also influence disease susceptibility. To identify the genes involved in this disorder, we performed a genome-wide scan on 106 well-defined Swedish and Norwegian families with at least two affected siblings. We investigated familial segregation of 398 microsatellite markers, and utilised non-parametric linkage analysis. The strongest linkage with disease was found to the HLA locus (6p) (P<0.000006). There were eight regions besides HLA with a point wise P value below 0.05. Among these eight regions were 11q and 5q, both of which have been suggested in several linkage studies of independent celiac disease families. We also performed a stratification analysis of families according to their HLA genotypes. This resulted in significant differences on chromosome 2q. These results indicate that 11q, 5q and possibly also 2q are true susceptibility regions in CD.

The CTLA4/CD28 gene region on chromosome 2q33 confers susceptibility to celiac disease in a way possibly distinct from that of type 1 diabetes and other chronic inflammatory disorders.

The effect of the gene region on chromosome 2q33 containing the CD28 and the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte associated (CTLA4) genes has been investigated in several diseases with chronic inflammatory nature. In addition to celiac disease (CD), type I diabetes, Grave's disease, rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis have all demonstrated associations to the A/G single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in exon 1, position +49 of the CTLA4 gene. The purpose of this study was to investigate this gene region in a genetically homogeneous population consisting of 107 Swedish and Norwegian families with CD using genetic association and linkage methods. We found a significant association with preferential transmission of the A-allele of the exon 1 +49 polymorphism by using the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT). Suggestive linkage of this region to CD was moreover demonstrated by non-parametric linkage (NPL) analysis giving a NPL-score of 2.1. These data strongly indicates that the CTLA4 region is a susceptibility region in CD. Interestingly, of the several chronic inflammatory diseases that exhibit associations to the CTLA4 +49 A/G dimorphism, CD appears to be the only disease associated to the A allele. This suggests that the +49 alleles of the CTLA4 gene are in linkage disequilibrium with two distinct disease predisposing alleles with separate effects. The peculiar association found in the gut disorder CD may possibly relate to the fact that the gastrointestinal immune system, in contrast to the rest of the immune system, aims to establish tolerance to foreign proteins.

A parametric estimation procedure for relapse time distributions.

In a relapse clinical trial patients who have recovered from some recurrent disease (e.g., ulcer or cancer) are examined at a number of predetermined times. A relapse can be detected either at one of these planned inspections or at a spontaneous visit initiated by the patient because of symptoms. In the first case the observations of the time to relapse, X, is interval-censored by two predetermined time-points. In the second case the upper endpoint of the interval is an observation of the time to symptoms, Y. To model the progression of the disease we use a partially observable Markov process. This approach results in a bivariate phase-type distribution for the joint distribution of (X, Y). It is a flexible model which contains several natural distributions for X, and allows the conditional distributions of the marginals to smoothly depend on each other. To estimate the distributions involved we develop an EM-algorithm. The estimation procedure is evaluated and compared with a non-parametric method in a couple of example based on simulated data.