Probabilistic survival modeling in health research: an assessment using cohort data from hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a Latin American city.

Probabilistic survival methods have been used in health research to analyze risk factors and adverse health outcomes associated with COVID-19. The aim of this study was to employ a probabilistic model selected among three distributions (exponential, Weibull, and lognormal) to investigate the time from hospitalization to death and determine the mortality risks among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. A retrospective cohort study was conducted for patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 within 30 days in Londrina, Brazil, between January 2021 and February 2022, registered in the database for severe acute respiratory infections (SIVEP-Gripe). Graphical and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) methods were used to compare the efficiency of the three probabilistic models. The results from the final model were presented as hazard and event time ratios. Our study comprised of 7,684 individuals, with an overall case fatality rate of 32.78%. Data suggested that older age, male sex, severe comorbidity score, intensive care unit admission, and invasive ventilation significantly increased risks for in-hospital mortality. Our study highlights the conditions that confer higher risks for adverse clinical outcomes attributed to COVID-19. The step-by-step process for selecting appropriate probabilistic models may be extended to other investigations in health research to provide more reliable evidence on this topic.

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on case fatality rates in a city in Southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have established that vaccination plays a significant role in reducing COVID-19-related deaths. Here, we investigated differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, and analyzed whether the age composition of confirmed cases has a significant effect on the variations in the observed CFRs across these groups. METHODS: The study considered 59,853 confirmed cases and 1,687 deaths from COVID-19, reported between January 1 to October 20, 2021, by the Health Department of Londrina, a city in Southern Brazil. We used Negative Binomial regression models to estimate CFRs according to vaccination status and age range. RESULTS: There are significant differences between the CFR for fully vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (IRR = 0.596, 95% CI [0.460 - 0.772], P < .001). Vaccinated populations experience fatality rates 40.4% lower than non-vaccinated. In addition, the age composition of confirmed cases explains more than two-thirds of the variation in the CFR between these 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel findings reinforce the importance of vaccination as an essential public health measure for reducing COVID-19 fatality rates in all age groups. The results also provide means for accurately assessing differences in CFRs across vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Such assessment is essential to inform and determine appropriate containment and mitigation interventions in Brazil and elsewhere.

Platelet function and the von Willebrand factor antigen in the hepatosplenic form of schistosomiasis mansoni.

Forty-five individuals with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis mansoni were studied with the aim of measuring levels of von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF:Ag), detecting abnormalities in platelet morphology and aggregation, and identifying changes to surface antigens. Haemograms, platelet aggregation tests, flow cytometry investigations of CD41/CD42b antibody and vWF:Ag assays were performed. Mean platelet counts were low (77,522/mm3) and 82.2% of patients presented thrombocytopenia. An inverse relationship between spleen size and platelet count was seen. Macroplatelets were found in 57.1% of patients, indicating good bone-marrow response, but were insufficient to compensate for the decrease in platelets due to splenomegaly. Decreased or absent platelet aggregation was seen in 50% of patients, probably due to low platelet counts. Markers for GPIIb/IIIa were normal in more than 90% of patients, not supporting the increased capture and destruction of platelets in the spleen that is hypothesized to occur with cirrhosis. Similar to cirrhosis, vWF:Ag levels were high or very high in 70.5% of patients. High levels of vWF:Ag were associated with platelet counts <100,000/mm3, larger spleen diameter and oesophageal varices. In conclusion, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis leads to a lower platelet count due to pooling in the spleen and, consequently, impaired aggregation, but not to increased capture and destruction of platelets in the spleen. High vWF:Ag levels probably promote stabilization of platelet microaggregates and prevent minor manifestations of thrombocytopenia such as petechiae, ecchymosis and gingival bleeding.