A 2-stage ovarian cancer screening strategy using the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) identifies early-stage incident cancers and demonstrates high positive predictive value.

BACKGROUND: A 2-stage ovarian cancer screening strategy was evaluated that incorporates change of carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) levels over time and age to estimate risk of ovarian cancer. Women with high-risk scores were referred for transvaginal ultrasound (TVS). METHODS: A single-arm, prospective study of postmenopausal women was conducted. Participants underwent an annual CA125 blood test. Based on the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) result, women were triaged to next annual CA125 test (low risk), repeat CA125 test in 3 months (intermediate risk), or TVS and referral to a gynecologic oncologist (high risk). RESULTS: A total of 4051 women participated over 11 years. The average annual rate of referral to a CA125 test in 3 months was 5.8%, and the average annual referral rate to TVS and review by a gynecologic oncologist was 0.9%. Ten women underwent surgery on the basis of TVS, with 4 invasive ovarian cancers (1 with stage IA disease, 2 with stage IC disease, and 1 with stage IIB disease), 2 ovarian tumors of low malignant potential (both stage IA), 1 endometrial cancer (stage I), and 3 benign ovarian tumors, providing a positive predictive value of 40% (95% confidence interval = 12.2%, 73.8%) for detecting invasive ovarian cancer. The specificity was 99.9% (95% confidence interval = 99.7%, 100%). All 4 women with invasive ovarian cancer were enrolled in the study for at least 3 years with low-risk annual CA125 test values prior to rising CA125 levels. CONCLUSIONS: ROCA followed by TVS demonstrated excellent specificity and positive predictive value in a population of US women at average risk for ovarian cancer.

Large prospective study of ovarian cancer screening in high-risk women: CA125 cut-point defined by menopausal status.

Previous screening trials for early detection of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women have used the standard CA125 cut-point of 35 U/mL, the 98th percentile in this population yielding a 2% false positive rate, whereas the same cut-point in trials of premenopausal women results in substantially higher false positive rates. We investigated demographic and clinical factors predicting CA125 distributions, including 98th percentiles, in a large population of high-risk women participating in two ovarian cancer screening studies with common eligibility criteria and screening protocols. Baseline CA125 values and clinical and demographic data from 3,692 women participating in screening studies conducted by the National Cancer Institute-sponsored Cancer Genetics Network and Gynecologic Oncology Group were combined for this preplanned analysis. Because of the large effect of menopausal status on CA125 levels, statistical analyses were conducted separately in pre- and postmenopausal subjects to determine the impact of other baseline factors on predicted CA125 cut-points on the basis of 98th percentile. The primary clinical factor affecting CA125 cut-points was menopausal status, with premenopausal women having a significantly higher cut-point of 50 U/mL, while in postmenopausal subjects the standard cut-point of 35 U/mL was recapitulated. In premenopausal women, current oral contraceptive (OC) users had a cut-point of 40 U/mL. To achieve a 2% false positive rate in ovarian cancer screening trials and in high-risk women choosing to be screened, the cut-point for initial CA125 testing should be personalized primarily for menopausal status (50 for premenopausal women, 40 for premenopausal on OC, and 35 for postmenopausal women).