Dealing With Assumptions and Sampling Bias in the Estimation of Effective Population Size: A Case Study in an Amphibian Population.

Accurately estimating effective population size (N e) is essential for understanding evolutionary processes and guiding conservation efforts. This study investigates N e estimation methods in spatially structured populations using a population of moor frog (Rana arvalis) as a case study. We assessed the behaviour of N e estimates derived from the linkage disequilibrium (LD) method as we changed the spatial configuration of samples. Moor frog eggs were sampled from 25 breeding patches (i.e., separate vernal ponds, ditches or parts of larger fens) within a single population, revealing an isolation-by-distance pattern and a local spatial genetic structure. Varying buffer sizes around each patch were used to examine the impact of sampling window size on the estimation of effective number of breeders (N b). Our results indicate a downward bias in LD N b estimates with increasing buffer size, suggesting an underestimation of N b. The observed bias is attributed to LD resulting from including genetically divergent individuals (mixture-LD) confounding LD due to drift. This emphasises the significance of considering even subtle spatial genetic patterns. The implications of these findings are discussed, emphasising the need to account for spatial genetic structure to accurately assess population viability and inform conservation efforts. This study contributes to our understanding of the challenges associated with N e estimation in spatially structured populations and underscores the importance of refining methodologies to address population-specific spatial dynamics for effective conservation planning and management.

Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities.

Horizon scans have emerged as a valuable tool to anticipate the incoming invasive alien species (IAS) by judging species on their potential impacts. However, little research has been conducted on quantifying actual impacts and assessing causes of species-specific vulnerabilities to particular IAS due to persistent methodological challenges. The underlying interspecific mechanisms driving species-specific vulnerabilities therefore remain poorly understood, even though they can substantially improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Given that interspecific interactions underlying ecological impacts of IAS are often shaped by phenological synchrony, we tested the hypothesis that temporal mismatches in breeding phenology between native species and IAS can mitigate their ecological impacts. Focusing on the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), we combined an environmental DNA (eDNA) quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding survey in Belgium with a global meta-analysis, and integrated citizen-science data on breeding phenology. We examined whether the presence of native amphibian species was negatively related to the presence or abundance of invasive bullfrogs and whether this relationship was affected by their phenological mismatches. The field study revealed a significant negative effect of increasing bullfrog eDNA concentrations on native amphibian species richness and community structure. These observations were shaped by species-specific vulnerabilities to invasive bullfrogs, with late spring- and summer-breeding species being strongly affected, while winter-breeding species remained unaffected. This trend was confirmed by the global meta-analysis. A significant negative relationship was observed between phenological mismatch and the impact of bullfrogs. Specifically, native amphibian species with breeding phenology differing by 6 weeks or less from invasive bullfrogs were more likely to be absent in the presence of bullfrogs than species whose phenology differed by more than 6 weeks with that of bullfrogs. Taken together, we present a novel method based on the combination of aqueous eDNA quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding to quantify the ecological impacts of biological invaders at the community level. We show that phenological mismatches between native and invasive species can be a strong predictor of invasion impact regardless of ecological or methodological context. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of temporal alignment between native and IAS's phenologies into invasion impact frameworks.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding reflects spatiotemporal fish community shifts in the Scheldt estuary.

Estuarine ecosystems face increasing anthropogenic pressures, necessitating effective monitoring methods to mitigate their impacts on the biodiversity they harbour. The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) based detection methods is increasingly recognized as a promising tool to complement other, potentially invasive monitoring techniques. Integrating such eDNA analyses into monitoring frameworks for large ecosystems is still challenging and requires a deeper understanding of the scale and resolution at which eDNA patterns may offer insights in species presence and community composition space and time. The Scheldt estuary, characterized by its diverse habitats and complex currents, is one of the largest Western European tidal river systems. Until now, it remains challenging to obtain accurate information on fish communities living in and migrating through this ecosystem, consequently confining our knowledge to specific locations. To explore the potential of eDNA based monitoring, we simultaneously combine stow net fishing with eDNA metabarcoding, to assess spatiotemporal shifts in the Scheldt estuary's fish communities. In total, we detected 71 fish species in the estuary using eDNA metabarcoding, partly overlapping with historic fish community data gathered at the different study locations and in contrast to only 42 species using stow net fishing during the same survey period. Community compositions found by both detection methods varied among sampling locations, driven by a clear correlation to the salinity gradient. Limited effects of sampling depth and tide were observed on the eDNA metabarcoding data, allowing a significant reduction of the eDNA sampling effort for future eDNA fish monitoring campaigns in this study system. Our results further demonstrate that seasonal shifts in fish species occurrence can be detected using eDNA metabarcoding. Combining eDNA metabarcoding and stow net fishing further enhances our understanding of this vital waterway's diverse fish populations, allowing a higher resolution and more efficient monitoring strategy.

Using environmental DNA metabarcoding to monitor fish communities in small rivers and large brooks: Insights on the spatial scale of information.

Monitoring fish communities is central to the evaluation of ecological health of rivers. Both presence/absence of fish species and their relative quantity in local fish assemblages are crucial parameters to measure. Fish communities in lotic systems are traditionally monitored via electrofishing, characterized by a known limited efficiency and high survey costs. Analysis of environmental DNA could serve as a non-destructive alternative for detection and quantification of lotic fish communities, but this approach still requires further insights in practical sampling schemes incorporating transport and dilution of the eDNA particles; optimization of predictive power and quality assurance of the molecular detection method. Via a controlled cage experiment, we aim to extend the knowledge on streamreach of eDNA in small rivers and large brooks, as laid out in the European Water Framework Directive's water typology. Using a high and low source biomass in two river transects of a species-poor river characterized by contrasting river discharge rates, we found strong and significant correlations between the eDNA relative species abundances and the relative biomass per species in the cage community. Despite a decreasing correlation over distance, the underlying community composition remained stable from 25 to 300 m, or up to 1 km downstream of the eDNA source, depending on the river discharge rate. Such decrease in similarity between relative source biomass and the corresponding eDNA-based community profile with increasing distance downstream from the source, might be attributed to variation in species-specific eDNA persistence. Our findings offer crucial insights on eDNA behaviour and characterization of riverine fish communities. We conclude that water sampled from a relatively small river offers an adequate eDNA snapshot of the total fish community in the 300-1000 m upstream transect. The potential application for other river systems is further discussed.

Accurate detection and quantification of seasonal abundance of American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) using ddPCR eDNA assays.

The invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) imperils freshwater biodiversity worldwide. Effective management hinges on early detection of incipient invasions and subsequent rapid response, as established populations are extremely difficult to eradicate. Although environmental DNA (eDNA) detection methods provide a highly sensitive alternative to conventional surveillance techniques, extensive testing is imperative to generate reliable output. Here, we tested and compared the performance of two primer/probe assays to detect and quantify the abundance of bullfrogs in Western Europe in silico and in situ using digital droplet PCR (ddPCR). Although both assays proved to be equally target-specific and sensitive, one outperformed the other in ddPCR detection resolution (i.e., distinguishing groups of target-positive and target-negative droplets), and hence was selected for further analyses. Mesocosm experiments revealed that tadpole abundance and biomass explained 99% of the variation in eDNA concentration. Because per individual eDNA emission rates did not differ significantly among tadpoles and juveniles, and adults mostly reside out of the water, eDNA concentration can be used as an approximation of local bullfrog abundance in natural populations. Seasonal eDNA patterns in three colonized ponds showed parallel fluctuations in bullfrog eDNA concentration. An increase in eDNA concentration was detected in spring, followed by a strong peak coinciding with the breeding season (August, September or October), and continuously low eDNA concentrations during winter. With this study, we report the validation process required for appropriately implementing eDNA barcoding analyses in lentic systems. We demonstrate that this technique can serve as a solid and reliable tool to detect the early stages of bullfrog invasions and to quantify temporal changes in abundance that will be useful in coordinating large-scale bullfrog eradication programs and evaluating their efficiency.

Reliable eDNA detection and quantification of the European weather loach (Misgurnus fossilis).

The European weather loach (Misgurnus fossilis) is a cryptic and poorly known fish species of high conservation concern. The species is experiencing dramatic population collapses across its native range to the point of regional extinction. Although environmental DNA (eDNA)-based approaches offer clear advantages over conventional field methods for monitoring rare and endangered species, accurate detection and quantification remain difficult and quality assessment is often poorly incorporated. In this study, we developed and validated a novel digital droplet PCR (ddPCR) eDNA-based method for reliable detection and quantification, which allows accurate monitoring of M. fossilis across a number of habitat types. A dilution experiment under laboratory conditions allowed the definition of the limit of detection (LOD) and the limit of quantification (LOQ), which were set at concentrations of 0.07 and 0.14 copies µl-1 , respectively. A series of aquarium experiments revealed a significant and positive relationship between the number of individuals and the eDNA concentration measured. During a 3 year survey (2017-2019), we assessed 96 locations for the presence of M. fossilis in Flanders (Belgium). eDNA analyses on these samples highlighted 45% positive detections of the species. On the basis of the eDNA concentration per litre of water, only 12 sites appeared to harbour relatively dense populations. The other 31 sites gave a relatively weak positive signal that was typically situated below the LOQ. Combining sample-specific estimates of effective DNA quantity (Qe ) and conventional field sampling, we concluded that each of these weak positive sites still likely harboured the species and therefore they do not represent false positives. Further, only seven of the classified negative samples warrant additional sampling as our analyses identified a substantial risk of false-negative detections (i.e., type II errors) at these locations. Finally, we illustrated that ddPCR outcompetes conventional qPCR analyses, especially when target DNA concentrations are critically low, which could be attributed to a reduced sensitivity of ddPCR to inhibition effects, higher sample concentrations being accommodated and higher sensitivity obtained.

Monitoring of spatiotemporal occupancy patterns of fish and amphibian species in a lentic aquatic system using environmental DNA.

To effectively monitor, manage and protect aquatic species and understand their interactions, knowledge of their spatiotemporal distribution is needed. In this study, we used a fine-scale spatiotemporal water sampling design, followed by environmental DNA (eDNA) 12S metabarcoding, to investigate occupancy patterns of a natural community of fish and amphibian species in a lentic system. In the same system, we experimentally estimated the spatial and temporal dispersion of eDNA by placing a community of different fish and amphibian species in cages at one side of the pond, creating a controlled point of eDNA emission. Analyses of this cage community revealed a sharp spatial decline in detection rates and relative eDNA quantities at a distance of 5-10 m from the source, depending on the species and its abundance. In addition, none of the caged species could be detected 1 week after removal from the system. This indicates high eDNA decay rates and limited spatial eDNA dispersal, facilitating high local resolution for monitoring spatial occupancy patterns of aquatic species. Remarkably, for seven of the nine cage species, the presence of a single individual could be detected by pooling water of subsamples taken across the whole water body, illustrating the high sensitivity of the eDNA sampling and detection method applied. Finally, our work demonstrated that a fine-scale sampling design in combination with eDNA metabarcoding can cover total biodiversity very precisely and allows the construction of consistent spatiotemporal patterns of relative abundance and local distribution of free-living fish and amphibian species in a lentic ecosystem.

Reintroduced Native Populus nigra in Restored Floodplain Reduces Spread of Exotic Poplar Species.

Exotic Populus taxa pose a threat to the success of riparian forest restoration in floodplain areas. We evaluated the impact of exotic Populus taxa on softwood riparian forest development along the river Common Meuse after introducing native Populus nigra and after the re-establishment of the natural river dynamics. We sampled 154 poplar seedlings that spontaneously colonized restored habitat and assessed their taxonomy based on diagnostic chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite markers. Furthermore, by using a paternity analysis on 72 seedlings resulting from six open pollinated P. nigra females, we investigated natural hybridization between frequently planted cultivated poplars and native P. nigra. The majority of the poplar seedlings from the gravel banks analyzed where identified as P. nigra; only 2% of the sampled seedlings exhibited genes of exotic poplar species. Similarly, the majority of the seedlings from the open pollinated progenies were identified as P. nigra. For three seedlings (4%), paternity was assigned to a cultivar of P. × canadensis. Almost two decades after reintroducing P. nigra, the constitution of the seed and pollen pools changed in the study area in favor of reproduction of the native species and at the expense of the exotic poplar species. This study indicates that, although significant gene flow form exotic poplars is observed in European floodplains, restoration programs of the native P. nigra can vigorously outcompete the exotic gene flows and strongly reduce the impact of exotic Populus taxa on the softwood riparian forest development.

Combining ddPCR and environmental DNA to improve detection capabilities of a critically endangered freshwater invertebrate.

Isogenus nubecula is a critically endangered Plecoptera species. Considered extinct in the UK, I. nubecula was recently rediscovered (in one location of the River Dee, Wales), after 22 years of absence. In a similar way to many other species of Perlodidae, I. nubecula could be utilised as a bio-indicator, for assessing water quality and health status of a given freshwater system. However, conventional monitoring of invertebrates via kick-sampling, is invasive and expensive (time consuming). Further, such methods require a high level of taxonomic expertise. Here, we compared the traditional kick-sampling method with the use of eDNA detection using qPCR and ddPCR-analyses. In spring 2018, we sampled eDNA from twelve locations on the River Dee. I. nubecula was detected using kick-sampling in five of these locations, three locations using both eDNA detection and kick-sampling and one location using eDNA detection alone - resulting in a total of six known and distinct populations of this critically endangered species. Interestingly, despite the eDNA assay being validated in vitro and in silico, and results indicating high sensitivity, qPCR analysis of the eDNA samples proved to be ineffective. In contrast, ddPCR analyses resulted in a clear detection of I. nubecula at four locations suggesting that inhibition most likely explains the large discrepancy between the obtained qPCR and ddPCR results. It is therefore important to explore inhibition effects on any new eDNA assay. We also highlight that ddPCR may well be the best option for the detection of aquatic organisms which are either rare or likely to shed low levels of eDNA into their environment.