An Electronic Health Record Model for Predicting Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis in Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: One challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease. AIM: To derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes. METHODS: We used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides. RESULTS: Of 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.

Irritable Bowel Syndrome in Veterans with Gulf War Illness Evaluated at VA's War-Related Illness and Injury Study Center.

INTRODUCTION: Excess rates of Gulf War illness (GWI) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), two chronic multisymptom illnesses, have long been documented among nearly 700,000 veterans who served in the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War. We sought to report the prevalence, characteristics, and association of GWI and IBS decades after the war in a clinical cohort of deployed Gulf War veterans (GWVs) who were evaluated at the Department of Veterans Affairs' War Related Illness and Injury Study Center (WRIISC) for unexplained chronic symptoms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data gathered from clinical intake questionnaires of deployed GWVs who were evaluated at WRIISC clinics between 2008 and 2020. We applied Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria to determine the prevalence of severe GWI. IBS was identified using Rome IV diagnostic criteria (current IBS) and veterans' self-reported "history of physician-diagnosed IBS." We examined associations between IBS and GWI using bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the N = 578 GWVs evaluated by the WRIISC, severe GWI (71.8%), history of physician-diagnosed IBS (50.3%) and current IBS (42.2%) were all highly prevalent. Nearly half of GWVs with severe GWI met Rome criteria for IBS (45.8%), and over half reported a history of physician-diagnosed IBS (56.1%). In multivariable models, severe GWI was significantly associated both with current IBS (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.68, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.54) and with veteran-reported history of physician-diagnosed IBS (aOR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.43, 2.23). IBS with diarrhea (IBS-D) was the most common subtype among GWVs with current IBS (61.1%). However, IBS-mixed affected a significantly greater proportion of veterans with severe GWI, compared to veterans who did not have severe GWI (P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: More than 20 years after the Persian Gulf War, our findings indicate a high degree of comorbidity between severe GWI and IBS among deployed GWVs seeking care for unexplained illnesses. Our results suggest GWVs with GWI should be screened for IBS for which evidence-based treatments are available and could potentially reduce symptom burden. Conversely, symptoms of IBS should trigger additional evaluation for non-gastrointestinal symptoms in deployed Gulf War veterans to identify possible GWI and ensure a comprehensive approach to care.