Future range dynamics of Asian yellow-legged hornets (Vespa velutina) and their range overlap with Western honey bees (Apis mellifera) reveal major challenges for bee conservation in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The invasion of Asian yellow-legged hornets (Vespa velutina) has significantly affected Western honey bees (Apis mellifera) and apiculture in Europe. However, the range dynamics of this hornet and its range overlap with the bees under future change scenarios have not yet been clarified. Using land-use, climate, and topographical datasets, we projected the range dynamics of this hornet and Western honey bees in Europe and the future overlap of their ranges. RESULTS: We found that climatic factors had stronger effects on the potential ranges of the hornets compared with land-use and topographical factors. A considerable range expansion of this hornet was predicted, and an increase in the overlap between this pest and the bees was primarily caused by future decreases in temperature seasonality. Additionally, we detected future range expansions of the hornet in the UK and France; future range overlap between this pest and Western honey bees in the UK, Ireland, Portugal, and France; and future overlap between the ranges of this pest and bees but not under recent conditions was mainly projected in Germany, Denmark, and the UK. CONCLUSION: Mitigating future climate change might effectively control the proliferation of the hornets and their effects on the bees. Strategies for preventing the invasion of this pest and developing European apiculture should be developed and implemented in these regions where future range overlap between them was projected. Given that climate-change scenarios may result in uncertainty in our projections, further investigation is needed to clarify future range changes of our target species. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Niche and Range Shifts of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus Suggest That the Latecomer Shows a Greater Invasiveness.

The yellow fever (Aedes aegypti) and Asian tiger (Ae. albopictus) mosquitos are major vectors of global mosquito-borne pathogens. However, their niche and range shifts, the underlying mechanisms, and related relative invasion rates remain scarcely known. We examined the niche and range shifts between the native and invasive Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus populations through dynamic niche and range models and the largest occurrence record datasets to date. We detected substantial niche and range expansions in both species, probably because the introduced populations have more opportunities to acclimate to diverse environmental conditions than their native counterparts. Mitigating climate change could effectively control their future invasions, given that future climate changes could promote their invasiveness. Additionally, compared to the introduced Ae. aegypti, the more recent invader Ae. albopictus had greater niche and range expansion over its shorter invasion history. In terms of the range shifts, Ae. albopictus had an invasion rate approximately 13.3 times faster than that of Ae. aegypti, making it a more invasive vector of global mosquito-borne pathogens. Therefore, considering its higher invasion rate, much more attention should be paid to Ae. albopictus in devising our strategies against prevailing global mosquito-borne pathogens than Ae. aegypti. Since small niche shifts could result in their large range shifts, niche shifts might be a more important indicator for biological invasion assessments.

Climatic niche and range shifts of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) in Europe: An invasive pest displacing native squirrels.

BACKGROUND: As an invasive pest from North America, grey squirrels (GSs; Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) are displacing native squirrels in Europe. However, the climatic niche and range dynamics of GSs in Europe remain largely unknown. Through niche and range dynamic models, we investigated climatic niche and range shifts between introduced GSs in Europe and native GSs in North America. RESULTS: GSs in North America can survive in more variable climatic conditions and have much wider climatic niche breadth than do GSs in Europe. Based on climate, the potential range of GSs in Europe included primarily Britain, Ireland, and Italy, whereas the potential range of GSs in North America included vast regions of western and southern Europe. If GSs in Europe could occupy the same climatic niche space and potential range as GSs in North America, they would occupy an area ca. 2.45 times the size of their current range. The unfilling ranges of GSs in Europe relative to those of GSs in North America were primarily in France, Italy, Spain, Croatia, and Portugal. CONCLUSION: Our observations implied that GSs in Europe have significant invasion potential, and that range projections based on their occurrence records in Europe may underestimate their invasion risk. Given that small niche shifts between GSs in Europe and in North America could lead to large range shifts, niche shifts could be a sensitive indicator in invasion risk assessment. The identified unfilling ranges of the GS in Europe should be prioritized in combating GS invasions in the future. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future.

The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms' invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.

Global niche and range shifts of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a highly virulent amphibian-killing fungus.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is one of the world's most invasive species, and is responsible for chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease that has caused huge losses of global amphibian biodiversity. Few studies have investigated invasive Bd's niche and range relative to those of native Bd. In the present study, we applied niche and range dynamic models to investigate global niche and range dynamics between native and invasive Bd. Invasive Bd occupied wider and different niche positions than did native Bd. Additionally, invasive Bd was observed in hotter, colder, wetter, drier, and more labile climatic conditions. Contrast to most relevant studies presuming Bd's niche remaining stable, we found that invasive Bd rejected niche conservatism hypotheses, suggesting its high lability in niche, and huge invasion potential. Bd's niche non-conservatism may result in range lability, and small niche expansions could induce large increases in range. Niche shifts may therefore be a more sensitive indicator of invasion than are range shifts. Our findings indicate that Bd is a high-risk invasive fungus not only due to its high infection and mortality rates, but also due to its high niche and range lability, which enhance its ability to adapt to novel climatic conditions. Therefore, invasive Bd should be a high-priority focus species in strategizing against biological invasions.