Environmental and Edaphic Factors that Influence Spring Dead Spot Epidemics.

Spring dead spot (SDS) (Ophiosphaerella spp.) is a soilborne disease of warm-season turfgrasses grown where winter dormancy occurs. The edaphic factors that influence where SDS epidemics occur are not well defined. A study was conducted during the spring of 2020 and repeated in the spring of 2021 on four 'TifSport' hybrid bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon × transvaalensis) golf course fairways expressing SDS symptoms in Cape Charles, VA, U.S.A. SDS within each fairway was mapped from aerial imagery collected in the spring of 2019 with a 20 MP CMOS 4k true color sensor mounted on a DJI Phantom 4 Pro drone. Three disease intensity zones were designated from the maps (low, moderate, high) based on the density of SDS patches in an area. Disease incidence and severity, soil samples, surface firmness, thatch depth, and organic matter measurements were taken from 10 plots within each disease intensity zone from each of the four fairways (n = 120). Multivariate pairwise correlation analyses (P < 0.1) and best subset stepwise regression analyses were conducted to determine which edaphic factors most influenced the SDS epidemic within each fairway and each year. Edaphic factors that correlated with an increase in SDS or were selected for the best fitting model varied across holes and years. However, in certain cases, soil pH and thatch depth were predictors for an increase in SDS. No factors were consistently associated with SDS occurrence, but results from this foundational study of SDS epidemics can guide future research to relate edaphic factors to SDS disease development.

Memory of incomplete phase transitions from a random squares model.

We present a simple two-dimensional model for a phase transition, then study its predictions, in particular the memory properties. The direct transformation is modeled by randomly placing small squares, "nuclei", on an initially empty surface. Then, the nuclei expand ("grow") up to finite final sizes which are randomly chosen in a given range, while keeping their square shape. An important issue is the "interaction" which forces some squares to remain at smaller sizes if the surrounding squares get in the way of their growth. Interestingly, this naturally leads to quasiequal total area covered by the squares of each size after a complete direct transformation. Next, it is shown that the system "remembers" incomplete ("arrested") reverse transformations taking place in reversed order of the squares sizes. The memory is "encrypted" in the distribution of the squares sizes after a next direct transformation and manifests as a significant imbalance between the areas covered by the "big" and "small" (relative to the arrest size) squares. We are able to also reproduce the so-called "hammer effect" and the memorizing of multiple arrest points. Our model is particularly relevant for the thermal memory effect in shape memory alloys, and we actually borrowed many features from existing thermodynamic models addressing this effect. However, here we eliminate the explicit thermodynamics and end up with a statistical geometry model, presumably easier to reproduce.

A Randomized Trial of Mycobacterium w in Severe Presumed Gram-Negative Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium w (Mw), an immunomodulator, has been shown to resolve early organ failure in severe sepsis. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does Mw improve survival in patients with severe presumed gram-negative sepsis? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study conducted in ICUs of five tertiary care centers in India. We included consecutive patients (age ≥ 18 years) with presumed gram-negative sepsis in the study within 48 h of the first organ dysfunction. Patients in the treatment arm received 0.3 mL/d of Mw intradermally for 3 consecutive days, whereas the control arm received matching placebo. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes were ventilator-free days, days receiving vasopressor therapy, ICU and hospital length of stay, nosocomial infection rate, antibiotic use duration, and delta Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. RESULTS: We included 202 patients with severe sepsis (101 Mw, 101 placebo). The use of Mw significantly reduced the mortality (9/101 vs 20/101; estimate difference, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.01-0.21]; P = .04). We found no difference in ventilator-free days, days receiving vasopressor drugs, ICU length of stay, and the hospital length of stay. The time to mortality (median, 13 days vs 8.5 days) was significantly longer in the Mw than in the placebo arm. The delta SOFA score, rate of nosocomial infections, and antibiotic use duration were similar in the two arms. We found Mw to reduce significantly the odds (OR, 0.37 [95% CI, 0.15-0.9]) of mortality after adjusting for culture-positive sepsis, baseline SOFA score, age, and sex. INTERPRETATION: The use of Mw was associated with a significant reduction in mortality in patients with severe presumed gram-negative sepsis. Further studies are required to confirm our findings. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT02330432; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Transplantation of a New Biological Product in Rare Diseases, Such as Epidermolysis Bullosa: Response and Clinical Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Epidermolysis bullosa (EB) is a phenotypically diverse group of hereditary blistering disorders involving mutations in 20 different genes. Those debilitating disorders are currently incurable; however, there are a number of promising preclinical trials, where some treatments already approach the stage of early clinical trial. In this paper we introduce a novel surgical approach to the treatment of EB-induced ulcerations. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a new biological dressing in the form of an allogenic human skin equivalent graft before using multipotent stem cells, classified as an advanced therapy medicinal product. METHODS: Implanted human acellular dermal matrices were prepared from the superficial layers of donated human skin. Scaffold sterilization was conducted via irradiation with the use of a linear electron accelerator. Following water-knife debridement, wounds were surgically covered with accordingly prepared grafts and dressed in burn-injury fashion. Subsequently, the wounds were monitored for infection and viability. RESULTS: Our data indicate that grafting as a potential new medicinal product was safe and effective in patients with rare diseases, such as EB, and may be used for stem cells to create new Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products. During a 200-day follow-up, we proved the safety of using human scaffolds (allogeneic graft) by observing no apparent infection or necrosis. Instead, we noted fewer required dressing changes, promoted wound healing, pain reduction, and an overall improvement in the quality of life in patients with EB. CONCLUSION: The protocol for grafting allogenic acellular epidermal sheets is the most promising treatment for severely affected skin areas in EB patients to date.

New Treatment of Wound Healing With Allogenic Acellular Human Skin Graft: Preclinical Assessment and In Vitro Study.

BACKGROUND: Nonhealing wounds can be a major clinical problem. Impaired wound healing is often related to massive tissue injury, concomitant wound healing deficiencies (chronic wounds), burn injury, or congenital conditions. We propose a novel biological dressing as an alternative surgical approach. The dressing is a form of an allogenic human skin graft equivalent with further use of allogeneic stem cells classified as an advanced therapy medicinal product. This new allogenic acellular human skin graft has been specifically developed to address the clinical indications for dressing wound lesions and promoting tissue repair in specific rare genetic diseases. METHODS: This case report illustrates the use of an acellular human skin allograft seeded with multipotent stem cells in the treatment of tissue injuries (burns), congenital conditions, and chronic wounds. Donor-tissue processing yields an acellular dermal matrix with integral collagen bundling and organization, as well as an intact basement membrane complex. RESULTS: Preclinical observations show prolonged viability of acellular human skin grafts with multipotent stem cells. This was confirmed with histological and electron-microscopic evaluation of biopsies, which demonstrated host-cell infiltration and neovascularization of the biological dressing. Moreover, the dressings were characterized by low immunogenicity, as confirmed by histology exam and T-cell proliferation assays in vitro. CONCLUSION: Our data confirmed the safety and efficacy of the evaluated acellular human skin grafts, which may be used in patients with rare diseases, such as epidermolysis bullosa, burn injuries, and chronic wounds.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of 3D versus 2D transesophageal echocardiography for the evaluation of patients with primary mitral regurgitation with indication of surgical treatment

OBJECTIVES: To perform the cost-effectiveness analysis of three-dimensional transesophageal echocardiography (3DTEE) in comparison to two-dimensional transesophageal echocardiography (2DTEE) for the anatomic-functional evaluation and surgical planning of severe primary mitral regurgitation. METHODS: a complete economic study was based on a systematic review of 3DTEE and 2DTEE accuracy and private health system costs of two different surgical interventions: mitral valve plasty and mitral valve replacement. The prevalence of common postoperative complications was also predicted for elective procedures: atrial fibrillation (8.6%); acute myocardial infarction (1.4%); thrombosis (3.5%); bleeding (1.5%); endocarditis (6.3%). The decision tree method was adopted as a data analysis model. The Bayes" theorem was used based on sensitivity and specificity measurements. The costs, considering literature and professional tables, were: 3DTEE = US$ 349; 2DTEE = US$ 204; diagnostic evaluation = US$ 597; surgical procedure = US$ 3,643; surgical treatment = US$ 374. RESULTS: The deterministic analysis of the diagnostic test shows that 3DTEE (non-dominated) is superior to 2DTEE (absolutely dominated). The 3DTEE presents a cost reduction of US$ 1,147 and incremental effectiveness (true identification) of 22% when compared to 2DTEE. The multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that after 100,000 iterations, the diagnosis based on the 3DTEE becomes the first choice regardless of the willingness to pay threshold. CONCLUSIONS: 3DTEE was cost-effective compared to 2DTEE. Thus, 3DTEE is a potential device to promote health compared to 2DTEE for surgical planning of severe primary mitral regurgitation. (AU)

Psychological Aspects of Living Kidney Donation in Poland: Experience of One Center.

BACKGROUND: Living kidney transplantation is the optimal treatment of end-stage renal disease. The benefits for recipients are obvious. The psychological consequences for living kidney donors in Poland are not known. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to evaluate the psychological aspects of living kidney donation in Poland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 66 living donor open nephrectomies were performed in our institution between 1995 and 2005. The psychological aspects were assessed in 40 donors after nephrectomy. The study applied the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), the Situation Assessment Questionnaire, the Health Behaviors Survey, and our own questionnaire. The mean observation period was 65.6 months. RESULTS: There was a trend toward better life satisfaction in living kidney donors compared to Polish adults. Donor life satisfaction was significantly lower when the recipient was dead than when the recipient was alive. Most donors perceived the kidney donation as a challenge in cognitive judgment. The mean score of the Health Behaviors Survey was not significantly different than in the general population in Poland. The mean pain score after donation was 3.2 in a 5-item scale (1 = severe pain, 5 = mild pain). The mean time of return to work was 3.5 months. No donors regretted their decisions about kidney donation. CONCLUSION: Living kidney donation in Poland has a positive impact on donors' quality of life. Among living kidney donors, the sense of danger concerning the risk of donation depends on the degree of the relationship with the recipient.

Do Anatomical Anomalies Affect the Results of Living Donor Kidney Transplantation?

BACKGROUND: Multiple renal artery kidneys still represent a special challenge for surgeons, during both nephrectomy for organ donation and transplantation. Recognition of anatomical conditions with advanced imaging methods is one of the most important elements of the preoperative evaluation process. AIM: The purpose of the current study was to assess if anatomical abnormalities affect the outcomes of living kidney donor transplantation procedures. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 60 living kidney donors and their recipients was performed. Patients were assigned to two groups: pairs with a single allograft vessels (group I) and pairs with any anatomical abnormalities of the transplanted organ (group II). The impact of anatomical abnormalities on initial and long-term outcomes of the transplantation were analyzed. RESULTS: The analyzed study group consisted of 60 pairs (35 included in group I and 25 in group II). Immediate graft function was observed in 65.7% vs 64% individuals, recpectively (n.s.). Mean serum creatinine concentration was 1.6, 1.46, and 1.44 mg/mL (group I) vs 1.78, 1.78, and 1.65 mg/mL (group II) at 1, 6, and 12 months posttransplant, respectively (n.s.). Glomerular filtration rate (using the Chronic Kindey Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation) was estimated at 54.3, 59.9, and 61.0 mL/min/1.73 m2 (group I) vs 59.8, 57.6, and 59.8 mL/min/1.73 m2 (group II) at the same time points, respectively (n.s.). CONCLUSIONS: Presence of single renal vessels was not a predictor of immediate graft function in living-donor kidney transplantation. Transplantation outcomes for kidneys with anatomical anomalies did not differ when compared to organs with typical anatomy. Multiple renal arteries did not impact initial graft function if precise surgical technique and proper preoperative diagnostics were provided.

Does Low Birthweight Have an Impact on Living Kidney Donor Outcomes?

INTRODUCTION: Because nearly 30,000 people worldwide become living kidney donors each year, donor safety is of the utmost importance. Recent studies have shown that living kidney donation is associated with an increased relative risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). It is essential to determine which donors will be more likely to develop ESRD. One of the risk factors for ESRD in living kidney donors is hypertension and, because there are studies demonstrating that low birthweight is a risk factor for developing hypertension in adult life, we hypothesized that donors with low birthweight may be at higher risk of developing renal disease after donation. METHODS: Seventy-three living kidney donors were examined. Donors were divided into 2 cohorts: a group with low birthweight and group with normal birthweight. We checked whether the donor birthweight has an impact on the outcome of donor renal function and on the development of hypertension. RESULTS: Hypertension was observed statistically more frequent in the group with low birthweight (P = .003). CONCLUSION: Glomerular filtration rate before kidney donation was found to be lower in the low-birthweight group.

Comparison of Kidney Transplantation Results From the Same Deceased Donor Between Patients With the First Transplantation and Retransplanted Patients.

BACKGROUND: It has been determined that there are about 25% patients with renal allograft failure on the waiting lists. METHODS: We analyzed 406 patients who received a kidney graft from 2013 to 2015 in a single center. The analysis resulted in 33 pairs of patients: for one recipient in the pair it was the first transplantation and for the other it was the second or a subsequent one. Graft and patient survival, graft function, delayed graft function episodes, primary nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes were analyzed to assess the outcome of kidney retransplantation. The follow-up period was 2 years. Delayed graft function was observed in both groups (P = .3303). RESULTS: Although in the second group there were twice as many episodes of acute rejection than in the first group (8 to 4), the results are not statistically significant (P = .1420). Primary graft dysfunction was observed only in the second group. Five patients who had lost their kidney graft during the follow-up period were observed in the second group. The probability of graft loss in the second group was as follows: 3% on the day of the transplantation, 12% after 3 months, and 15% after 13 months. All of the patients survived during the 2-year follow-up period. A similar estimated glomerular filtration rate was observed in dialysis time in both groups. CONCLUSION: There are no statistically significant differences in kidney graft function between patients with the first transplantation and those with the repeat one. Good kidney transplantation results are attainable in both groups. It seems that retransplantation is the best treatment option for patients with primary graft failure.

First Report of Grapevine leafroll-associated virus-2 and -3 in Texas Vineyards.

Grapevine leafroll disease (GLD), caused by the grapevine leafroll-associated viruses (GLRaVs, family Closteroviridae) is an important disease in all grapevine-growing regions of the world (2). It negatively affects vine vigor, fruit yield, and grape quality (e.g., sugar accumulation) (3). Typical disease symptoms include downward rolling of grape leaves accompanied by interveinal reddening in red-fruited varieties and interveinal chlorosis in white-fruited varieties (2). The state of Texas currently has over 275 commercial vineyards and acreage under grape production is expanding. Currently, there is limited information on the presence of either GLRaV-2 (genus Closterovirus) or GLRaV-3 (genus Ampelovirus) in this state. During the 2012 season, 19 individual, symptomatic grapevines (13 cv. Lenoir and 6 cv. Blanc du Bois) were sampled (14 petioles per vine) from one vineyard site in Richards, TX. Total nucleic acid was extracted from the samples as described before (5) and tested by RT-PCR using species specific primers to amplify a 334-bp fragment of the HSP70h gene of GLRaV-2 (L2 F: 5'-ATAATTCGGCGTACATCCCCACTT-3' and U2 R: 5'-GCCCTCCGCGCAACTAATGACAG-3') (1) and a 541-bp fragment of the HSP70h gene of GLRaV-3 (LC1 F: 5'-CGCTAGGGCTGTGGAAGTATT-3' and LC2 R: 5'-GTTGTCCCGGGTACCAGATAT-3') (4). Samples were also subjected to triple (TAS) and double (DAS) antibody sandwich ELISA for GLRaV-2 and GLRaV-3 using commercially available antibody test kits (AC Diagnostics, Fayetteville, AR). Five samples tested positive for GLRaV-2 and one for GLRaV-3, all from the variety Lenoir with no incidences of mixed infection. In addition to the RT-PCR and ELISA, the presence of GLRaV-2 and GLRaV-3 was confirmed by direct sequencing of select RT-PCR products, which was purified using the QIAquick PCR Purification kit (Qiagen Inc., CA). The sequencing took place at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA. GLRaV-2 isolate TX12 (GenBank Accession No. KF417612) and GLRaV-3 isolate TX9 (KJ545571) shared 85 to 100% and 94 to 100% nucleotide identity and 74 to 100% and 82 to 100% amino acid identity, respectively, with previously reported isolates from around the world. All samples tested negative for GLRaV-1, -4, -4 strain 5, and -4 strain 9 (4), suggesting that some of the symptomatic vines may have a different disease or abiotic disorder, such as a nutrient deficiency. To our knowledge, this is the first report of GLRaV-2 and GLRaV-3 in the state of Texas. References: (1) N. Bertazzon and E. Angelini. J. Plant Pathol. 86:283, 2004. (2) M. Fuchs et al. Plant Dis. 93:395, 2009. (3) L. Kovacs et al. Am. J. Enol. Vitic. 52:254, 2001. (4) F. Osman et al. J. Virol. Methods. 141:22, 2007. (5) A. Rowhani et al. Proc. ICVG (Adelaide). 13:82, 2000.

Detection and genetic profiling of infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV) infections in wild berried freshwater prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii collected for hatchery production.

Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV) has been detected widely in penaeid culture facilities in Asia and the Americas. IHHNV infection on sub-adult and postlarvae of the giant freshwater prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii which had caused up to 80% mortalities was first reported in Southeast Taiwan in 2006. In Malaysia, although, there has been no report on IHHNV infections in M. rosenbergii, preliminary work suggests that there is an urgent need to setup a screening protocol for IHHNV for both wild and cultured populations. In this study, polymerase chain reaction based screening was carried out on 30 randomly sampled berried wild M. rosenbergii before and after spawning. All samples did not showed any sign of IHHNV infection. However, the results showed that 20% of the samples were IHHNV positive. Sequence analysis of the amplified band using NCBI-BLAST showed that the putative IHHNV sequence had 98% nucleotide sequence (388 bp) identity with the IHHNV isolate AC-05-005 non-structural protein 1 gene and seven other IHHNV strains in the data bank further affirming the suggestion on the presence of IHHNV in wild freshwater prawn populations in Malaysia.

Qualitative Assessment of the Impact of Implementing Reiki Training in a Supported Residence for People Older Than 50 Years with HIV/AIDS.

INTRODUCTION: Reiki is a Japanese form of energy healing that has become popular in the US. Reiki training involves three stages-levels I, II, and III-to a master practitioner level and requires both giving and receiving Reiki. We set out to implement a program to train clients of a supported residence in Brooklyn, NY. They were all older than age 50 years and had HIV/AIDS and substance-abuse and/or mental-health disorders. METHODS: A qualitative, narrative-inquiry study was conducted. The Reiki master kept a journal of her 3 years of providing 90 minutes of Reiki treatment and/or training once weekly at the residence. Forty-five of 50 potential participants attended these sessions with various frequencies. Stories were collected from 35 participants regarding their experience of Reiki training. We posited success as continued involvement in the program. RESULTS: All 35 participants reported receiving benefit from participation in Reiki. Participants first took part in training because of the offered subway tokens; however, 40 continued their involvement despite a lack of compensation. When asked why they continued, participants reported life-changing experiences, including a greater ability to cope with addictions, a greater ability to manage counseling, healing of wounds, improvement of T-cell counts, and improved skills of daily living. CONCLUSION: Reiki training can be successfully implemented in a supported housing facility with people with HIV/AIDS and comorbid disorders. Some people in our study population reported areas of improvement and life-changing experiences. Our study did not establish the efficacy of Reiki, but our findings support the effect of the entire gestalt of implementing a program related to spirituality and healing and supports the goal of implementing a larger randomized, controlled trial in this setting to establish the efficacy of Reiki.

Screening of parasitic and IHHNV infections in wild giant freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii from Rejang River at Kuching, Sarawak.

A preliminary survey of parasitic and infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV) infections in giant freshwater prawn from the Damak Sea of Rejang River, Kuching, Sarawak was conducted. Symptoms of black spots/patches on the rostrum, carapace, pleopods or telson were observed in most of the 107 samples collected. Parasitic examination revealed sessiline peritrichs such as (Zoothamnium sp.), nematode larvae, gregarine stage and cocoon of leech with prevalences of 1.2%, 1.2%, 5% and 17% respectively. Under histopathological examination, changes like accumulation of hemocytes around hepatopancreatic tubules due to vibriosis, basophilic intranuclear inclusions in the epithelium and E-cell of hepatopancreatic tubules as a result of HPV were seen through the section. No positive infection of IHHNV was detected in 78 samples. As such, the wild giant freshwater prawns in Damak Sea of Rejang River in Kuching are IHHNV-free though infections of parvo-like virus and bacteria were seen in histopathology.

Homoeopathic treatment of upper respiratory tract infections in children: evaluation of thirty case series.

A pilot study of the homoeopathic treatment of recurrent Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTIs) in children below the age of 5 years was carried out using the data consisting of detailed case series with before and after comparison in respect of 30 patients collected during 2006. The study was carried out as part of a research project at a private Homoeopathic Medical College and Post-Graduate Institute. The number of attacks of the URTIs during the 6 months period preceding the date of commencement of the homoeopathic treatment (Control value) and 6 months period following the date of commencement of treatment (Treatment value) were compared. The results of the study indicated statistically significant differences (p<0.001%, t-test and Wilcoxon non-parametric test) in the two data sets in favour of homoeopathic treated cases. The results of the study indicate the utility of the homoeopathic remedies prescribed based on the concept of individualisation in the treatment of URTIs in children vis-à-vis improving the prescribing skills particularly with respect to the process of selection and types of medicines.

Effect of acute alcohol use on the lethality of suicide attempts in patients with mood disorders.

Acute alcohol use is an important risk factor for attempted and completed suicide. We evaluated the effect of acute alcohol intake on the lethality of suicide attempts to test the hypothesis that acute alcohol intoxication is associated with more lethal suicide attempts. This retrospective study included 317 suicide attempters enrolled in mood disorders protocols. Demographic and clinical parameters were assessed. The use of alcohol at the time of the most lethal suicide attempt was determined. On the basis of their responses participants were classified into three groups: participants who reported "Enough alcohol intake to impair judgment, reality testing and diminish responsibility" or "Intentional intake of alcohol in order to facilitate implementation of attempt" were included in the group "Alcohol" (A); participants who reported "Some alcohol intake prior to but not related to attempt, reportedly not enough to impair judgment, reality testing" were included in the group "Some Alcohol" (SA); and participants who reported "No alcohol intake immediately prior to attempt" were included in the group "No Alcohol" (NA). Lethality of the most lethal suicide attempts was higher in the A group compared to the SA and NA groups. Prevalence of patients with alcohol use disorders was higher in the A group compared to the SA and NA groups. SA participants reported more reasons for living and lower suicide intent scores at the time of their most lethal suicide attempt compared to the A and NA groups. Acute alcohol use increases the lethality of suicide attempts in individuals with mood disorders.

Variation in Disease Incidence of Phomopsis Cane and Leaf Spot of Grape in Commercial Vineyards in Ohio.

A statewide survey for incidence of Phomopsis cane and leaf spot of grape (caused by Phomopsis viticola) was conducted during the 2002 to 2004 growing seasons. Over the 3 years, disease was observed in all surveyed vineyards, and mean disease incidence for leaves and internodes was 42 and 50%, respectively. A hierarchical linear mixed model was used to evaluate effects of region, farm within region, vineyard within farm, sampling site (i.e., vine) within vineyard, and shoot (i.e., cane) within vine on disease incidence. Region of the state did not have a significant effect on incidence but there was significant variation at all other levels of the hierarchy (P < 0.05); the greatest variation was at the lowest scale (shoots within vines). The potential effects of weather and management practices on disease risk at the vineyard scale were determined by using nonparametric correlation and binary logistic analyses after first classifying mean incidence per vineyard as being below or above 20% (D20 = 0,1) and 40% (D40 = 0,1). Overall results indicated that variables for predicted number of moderate infection events (DM; based on ambient temperature and hours when either there was measured rainfall or relative humidity above 90%), the extent of fungicide application (C) during early- and mid-May (M1 and M2, respectively), and the use of a dormant-period application of fungicide (DOR) were the key factors in predicting disease risk (for either D20 or D40). Accuracy (percentage of high and low disease vineyards correctly predicted) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (an overall measure of the accuracy of a model) for a generic model combining these predictor variables were 74 and 0.84, respectively, for D40 and 87 and 0.97, respectively, for D20. Models based on management practices were as accurate as those that incorporated weather variables. Although the degree of control of this disease is inadequate in Ohio, based on the survey results for incidence, the results from the risk-model analysis showed that improved management might be obtained by applying fungicide early during the growing season.