Novel Prediction Score for Arterial-Esophageal Fistula in Patients with Esophageal Cancer Bleeding: A Multicenter Study.

PURPOSE: To develop and internally validate a novel prediction score to predict the occurrence of arterial-esophageal fistula (AEF) in esophageal cancer bleeding. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with esophageal cancer bleeding in the emergency department. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of AEF. The patients were randomly divided into a derivation group and a validation group. In the derivation stage, a predictive model was developed using logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, internal validation of the model was conducted in the validation cohort during the validation stage to assess its discrimination ability. RESULTS: A total of 257 patients were enrolled in this study. All participants were randomized to a derivation cohort (n = 155) and a validation cohort (n = 102). AEF occurred in 22 patients (14.2%) in the derivation group and 14 patients (13.7%) in the validation group. A predictive model (HEARTS-Score) comprising five variables (hematemesis, active bleeding, serum creatinine level >1.2 mg/dL, prothrombin time >13 s, and previous stent implantation) was established. The HEARTS-Score demonstrated a high discriminative ability in both the derivation and validation cohorts, with c-statistics of 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.92), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: By employing this novel prediction score, clinicians can make more objective risk assessments, optimizing diagnostic strategies and tailoring treatment approaches.

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing positive rate in community testing stations as an indicator for COVID-19 epidemic trend, Taipei, Taiwan, May to August 2021.

BACKGROUND: Real-time surveillance of COVID-19 in large-scale community outbreaks presents challenges. Simple counts of the daily confirmed cases can be misleading due to constraints from bottlenecks in access to care or laboratory testing. This study aimed to investigate the role of the SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) in addressing these challenges for real-time COVID-19 surveillance. METHODS: This study included the results of 86,994 SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. These were conducted at four community testing stations within the Taipei metropolitan area during a community COVID-19 outbreak spanning from May 17, 2021, to August 9, 2021. We examined the correlation between the positive rates of Ag-RDT tests and the epidemic curve of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases by onset date to examine its role in real-time surveillance. RESULTS: During the 85-day study period, the trend of Ag-RDT test positive rates paralleled that of the epidemic curve. The correlation between the Ag-RDT positive rate and the number of cases (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.968) is comparable to that of the RT-PCR positive rate (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964). The Ag-RDT positive rate exhibited a more advanced leading trend, with Ag-RDT leading by 3 days in comparison to the 2-day lead for RT-PCR. CONCLUSION: The positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT tests at community testing stations serves as a good surrogate for assessing virus activity within the community and a useful tool for real-time COVID-19 surveillance. It is a robust indicator of the outbreak trend and near-term numbers of cases. This finding may facilitate the management of subsequent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases.

Comparison of the Diagnostic Accuracies of Monocyte Distribution Width, Procalcitonin, and C-Reactive Protein for Sepsis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We performed a systemic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of monocyte distribution width (MDW) and to compare with procalcitonin and C-reactive protein (CRP), in adult patients with sepsis. DATA SOURCES: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify all relevant diagnostic accuracy studies published before October 1, 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Original articles reporting the diagnostic accuracy of MDW for sepsis detection with the Sepsis-2 or Sepsis-3 criteria were included. DATA EXTRACTION: Study data were abstracted by two independent reviewers using a standardized data extraction form. DATA SYNTHESIS: Eighteen studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of MDW were 84% (95% CI [79-88%]) and 68% (95% CI [60-75%]). The estimated diagnostic odds ratio and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) were 11.11 (95% CI [7.36-16.77]) and 0.85 (95% CI [0.81-0.89]). Significant heterogeneity was observed among the included studies. Eight studies compared the diagnostic accuracies of MDW and procalcitonin, and five studies compared the diagnostic accuracies of MDW and CRP. For MDW versus procalcitonin, the area under the SROC was similar (0.88, CI = 0.84-0.93 vs 0.82, CI = 0.76-0.88). For MDW versus CRP, the area under the SROC was similar (0.88, CI = 0.83-0.93 vs 0.86, CI = 0.78-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the meta-analysis indicate that MDW is a reliable diagnostic biomarker for sepsis as procalcitonin and CRP. Further studies investigating the combination of MDW and other biomarkers are advisable to increase the accuracy in sepsis detection.

Risk factors for rebleeding and long-term outcomes in patients with head and neck cancer bleeding: a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Acute, catastrophic bleeding in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) is challenging and also a burden for their families and frontline physicians. This study analyzed the risk factors for rebleeding and long-term outcomes in these patients with HNC. METHODS: Patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) with HNC bleeding were enrolled in this study (N = 231). Variables of patients with or without rebleeding were compared, and associated factors were investigated using Cox's proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Of the 231 patients enrolled, 112 (48.5%) experienced a recurrent bleeding event. The cumulative rebleeding incidence rate was 23% at 30 days, 49% at 180 days, and 56% at 1 year. Multivariate Cox regression analyses demonstrated that overweight-to-obesity (HR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.28-0.98, p = 0.043), laryngeal cancer (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-4.23, p = 0.031), chemoradiation (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.001-2.94, p = 0.049), and second primary cancer (HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.13-2.70, p = 0.012) are significant independent predictors of rebleeding, and the prognostic factors for overall survival included underweight (HR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.22-2.93, p = 0.004), heart rate > 110 beats/min (HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.04-2.39, p = 0.032), chemoradiation (HR = 2.31, 95% CI 1.18-4.52, p = 0.015), and local recurrence (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.14-2.67, p = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: Overweight-to-obesity is a protective factor, while laryngeal cancer, chemoradiation and a second primary cancer are risk factors for rebleeding in patients with HNC. Our results may assist physicians in risk stratification of patients with HNC bleeding.

Risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients with head and neck cancer bleeding in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Acute head and neck cancer (HNC) bleeding is a life-threatening situation that frequently presents to the emergency department (ED). The purpose of the present study was to analyze the risk factors for the 30-day mortality in patients with HNC bleeding. METHODS: We included patients who presented to the ED with HNC bleeding (n = 241). Patients were divided into the survivor and nonsurvivor groups. Variables were compared, and the associated factors were examined with Cox's proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Of the 241 patients enrolled, the most common bleeding site was the oral cavity (n = 101, 41.9%). More than half of the patients had advanced HNC stage while 41.5% had local recurrence. The proportion of active bleeding was significantly higher in the nonsurvivor group (70.5% vs. 53.3%, p = 0.038). 42.3% received blood transfusion and 5.0% required inotropic support. In total, 21.2% of the patients experienced rebleeding, and 18.3% died within 30 days. Multivariate analyses indicated that a heart rate > 100 (beats/min) (HR = 2.42; Cl 1.15-5.06; p = 0.019) and inotropic support (HR = 3.00; Cl 1.14-7.89; p = 0.026) were statistically significant independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study may aid physicians in the evaluation of short-term survival in HNC bleeding patients and provide critical information for risk stratification and medical decisions.

Clinical Characteristics and In-Hospital Outcomes in Dialysis Patients with Septic Arthritis.

Background and Objectives: Septic arthritis is a medical emergency associated with high morbidity and mortality. The incidence rate of septic arthritis among dialysis patients is higher than the general population, and dialysis patients with bacteremia frequently experience adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify the clinical features and risk factors for longer hospital length of stay (LOS), positive blood culture, and in-hospital mortality in dialysis patients with septic arthritis. Materials and Methods: The medical records of 52 septic arthritis dialysis patients admitted to our hospital from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2020 were analyzed. The primary outcomes were bacteremia and in-hospital mortality. Variables were compared, and risk factors were evaluated using linear and logistic regression models. Results: Twelve (23.1%) patients had positive blood cultures. A tunneled cuffed catheter for dialysis access was used in eight (15.4%) patients, and its usage rate was significantly higher in patients with positive blood culture than in those with negative blood culture (41.7 vs. 7.5%, p = 0.011). Fever was present in 15 (28.8%) patients, and was significantly more frequent in patients with positive blood culture (58.3 vs. 20%, p = 0.025). The most frequently involved site was the hip (n = 21, 40.4%). The most common causative pathogen was Gram-positive cocci, with MRSA (n = 7, 58.3%) being dominant. The mean LOS was 29.9 ± 25.1 days. The tunneled cuffed catheter was a significant predictor of longer LOS (Coef = 0.49; Cl 0.25−0.74; p < 0.001). The predictors of positive blood culture were fever (OR = 4.91; Cl 1.10−21.83; p = 0.037) and tunneled cuffed catheter (OR = 7.60; Cl 1.31−44.02; p = 0.024). The predictor of mortality was tunneled cuffed catheter (OR = 14.33; Cl 1.12−183.18; p = 0.041). Conclusions: In the dialysis population, patients with tunneled cuffed catheter for dialysis access had a significantly longer hospital LOS. Tunneled cuffed catheter and fever were independent predictors of positive blood culture, and tunneled cuffed catheter was the predictor of in-hospital mortality. The recognition of the associated factors allows for risk stratification and determination of the optimal treatment plan in dialysis patients with septic arthritis.

Comparison between simple triage and rapid treatment and Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale for the emergency department triage of victims following an earthquake-related mass casualty incident: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Triage plays a crucial role in the emergency department (ED) management of mass casualty incidents (MCIs) when resources are limited. This study aimed to compare the performance of simple triage and rapid treatment (START) with that of the Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale (TTAS) for the ED triage of victims following an earthquake-related MCI. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of victims presenting at our ED with earthquake-related injuries within 24 h of a large-scale earthquake. TTAS was initially used at our ED for this event, and START was performed by retrospectively reviewing the patient records in a blinded manner. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of START and TTAS were determined for predicting ED discharge. RESULTS: We enrolled 105 patients (predominantly women, 60.0%; median age, 45.0 years) in this study; most of them presented with traumatic injuries and were initially triaged as TTAS level III (78.1%), followed by TTAS level II (11.4%). Although the majority of the victims (81.0%) were discharged, four deaths occurred. A moderate agreement in differentiating emergency from nonemergency patients was observed between START and TTAS. Furthermore, both the triage systems showed similar predictions for ED disposition (START AUC/sensitivity/specificity: 0.709/82.35%/55.00%; TTAS AUC/sensitivity/specificity: 0.709/90.59%/45.00%). CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated that START and TTAS have similar triage accuracy and ability to predict ED disposition. Our findings demonstrate that START may be used as an alternative to TTAS for the ED triage of victims following earthquake-related MCIs.