Transmission dynamics and effect of control measures on the 2022 outbreak of mpox among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in England: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The 2022 global outbreak of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) spread primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), with the initial cluster being identified in England in May, 2022. Understanding its epidemiological characteristics and the reasons for its downturn in July, 2022, will help to control future outbreaks. METHODS: We collated data for all diagnosed mpox cases (3621) from England from May 1, 2022, to Nov 16, 2022. Data from 75 individuals with mpox allowed estimation of the incubation period, while data from 121 case-contact pairs were used to estimate the serial interval. Six methods, including a structured dynamic compartmental transmission model, were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0). The structured model assumed all male individuals with mpox were GBMSM, who were then stratified into subgroups for those at low risk and high risk for mpox. This best fitting model was used to estimate the reduction in transmissibility, and the effective infectious period (before isolating), that resulted in the outbreak downturn, and the effect of vaccination initiated from June 27, 2022. Bayesian methods were used for parameter estimation and model calibration. FINDINGS: Most cases occurred in men (3544 of 3621, 97·9%). The median incubation period for mpox was 6·90 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·08-20·21), and the serial interval was 8·82 days (5·22-25·81). R0 estimates ranged from 1·41 to 2·17. The structured transmission model estimated that 83·8% of infections (95% CrI 83·5-85·3) resulted from sexual partnerships with GBMSM individuals at high risk of mpox. The outbreak downturn probably resulted from a 44·5% reduction in the sexual partner rate among all GBMSM (24·9-55·8) and 20·0% reduction in the effective infectious period (4·1-33·9), preventing 165 896 infections (115 584-217 730). Vaccination marginally increased the number of infections prevented (166 081, 115 745-217 947), but minimised a resurgence in cases from January, 2023, and could have averted four times more infections if initiated earlier. Our findings were sensitive to assumptions regarding the vaccine's effectiveness and the GBMSM subgroup at high risk of mpox. INTERPRETATION: The mpox outbreak in England probably resulted from high sexual partner rates among some GBMSM, with reductions in partner rates reversing the outbreak, and with vaccination minimising future outbreaks. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (UK).

Economic Evaluation of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Compared to Warfarin for Venous Thromboembolism in Thailand: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been used for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in Thailand. However, they have not been listed in the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM). A cost-effectiveness analysis is needed to aid policymakers in deciding whether DOACs should be listed in the NLEM. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of DOACs for patients with VTE in Thailand. METHODS: A cohort-based state transition model was constructed from a societal perspective with a lifetime horizon. All available DOACs, including apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban, and dabigatran, were compared with warfarin. A 6-month cycle length was used to capture all costs and health outcomes. The model consisted of nine health states, including VTE on treatment, VTE off treatment, recurrent VTE, clinically relevant non-major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, post-intracranial bleeding, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and death. All inputs were based on a comprehensive literature review. The model outcomes included total cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) with a 3% annual discount rate. A fully incremental cost-effectiveness analysis and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained were calculated at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of THB 160,000/QALY ($5003). The robustness of the findings was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: All DOACs were associated with a decreased risk of VTE recurrence and intracranial hemorrhage. In the base-case analysis, apixaban could increase 0.16 QALYs compared with warfarin. An ICER for apixaban was 269,809 Thai baht (THB)/QALY ($8437/QALY). Rivaroxaban had a better QALY than warfarin at 0.09 QALYs with an ICER of 757,363 THB/QALY ($23,682/QALY). Edoxaban and dabigatran could also increase by 0.10 QALYs with an ICER of 709,945 THB ($22,200) and 707,145 THB ($22,122)/QALY, respectively. Our probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that warfarin had a 99.8% possibility of being cost-effective, while apixaban had a 0.2% possibility of being cost-effective at the current WTP. Other DOACs had no possibility of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: All DOACs were not cost-effective for VTE treatment at the current WTP in Thailand. Apixaban is likely to be the best option among DOACs.

The cost-effectiveness analysis of laparoscopic hepatectomy compared with open liver resection in the early stage of hepatocellular carcinoma: a decision-analysis model in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic liver resection is increasing operate. In the early stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), many studies supported that laparoscopic liver resection was a safe procedure and showed some clinical benefits. However, the full economic evaluation has not been fully investigated. METHODS: A hybrid model of decision tree and Markov state transition model was constructed. Health outcomes were life-year gained (LYs), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted by 1,000 micro-simulation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was reported and the willingness to pay (WTP) was defined at 160,000 THB per QALY gained. RESULTS: Laparoscopic liver resection in the early stage of HCC was not cost-effective. In the base-case analysis, the total lifetime cost of laparoscopic approach was an average of 413,377 THB (US$13,214) higher than open approach by 55,474 THB (US$1,773) with a small QALY gained. The resulting ICER was 1,356,521 THB (US$43,362) per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic liver resection is not considered as a cost-effective alternative to open liver surgery in the early stage of HCC. In the Thai healthcare perspective, the results from this study may inform policymakers for the future policy implementation and healthcare resource allocation.

A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations Reporting the Cost-Effectiveness of Spinal Cord Stimulation.

OBJECTIVES: Spinal cord stimulation (SCS) is a recognized treatment for chronic pain. This systematic review aims to assess economic evaluations of SCS for the management of all chronic pain conditions, summarize key findings, and assess the quality of studies to inform healthcare resource allocation decisions and future research. METHODS: Economic evaluations were identified by searching general medical and economic databases complemented with screening of reference lists of identified studies. No restrictions on language or treatment comparators were applied. Relevant data were extracted. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria and were judged to be of acceptable quality. Economic evaluations assessed SCS for the management of refractory angina pectoris, failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS), complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), and peripheral arterial disease. Model-based studies typically applied a 2-stage model, i.e. decision tree followed by Markov model. Time horizon varied from 1 year to lifetime. Cost-effectiveness ranged widely from dominant (SCS cost-saving and more effective) to incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of >£100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Cost-effectiveness appeared to depend on the time horizon, choice of comparator, and indication. Ten of the studies indicated SCS as cost-saving or cost-effective compared with the alternative strategies. CONCLUSION: The results consistently suggest that SCS is cost-effective when considering a long-term time horizon, particularly for the management of FBSS and CRPS. Further studies are needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of SCS for ischemic pain and DPN.