Long-term trends of second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) show widespread contamination of a bird-eating predator, the Eurasian Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) in Britain.

Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are widely used to control rodents around the world. However, contamination by SGARs is detectable in many non-target species, particularly carnivorous mammals or birds-of-prey that hunt or scavenge on poisoned rodents. The SGAR trophic transfer pathway via rodents and their predators/scavengers appears widespread, but little is known of other pathways of SGAR contamination in non-target wildlife. This is despite the detection of SGARs in predators that do not eat rodents, such as specialist bird-eating hawks. We used a Bayesian modelling framework to examine the extent and spatio-temporal trends of SGAR contamination in the livers of 259 Eurasian Sparrowhawks, a specialist bird-eating raptor, in regions of Britain during 1995-2015. SGARs, predominantly difenacoum, were detected in 81% of birds, with highest concentrations in males and adults. SGAR concentrations in birds were lowest in Scotland and higher or increasing in other regions of Britain, which had a greater arable or urban land cover where SGARs may be widely deployed for rodent control. However, there was no overall trend for Britain, and 97% of SGAR residues in Eurasian Sparrowhawks were below 100 ng/g (wet weight), which is a potential threshold for lethal effects. The results have potential implications for the population decline of Eurasian Sparrowhawks in Britain. Fundamentally, the results indicate an extensive and persistent contamination of the avian trophic transfer pathway on a national scale, where bird-eating raptors and, by extension, their prey appear to be widely exposed to SGARs. Consequently, these findings have implications for wildlife contamination worldwide, wherever these common rodenticides are deployed, as widespread exposure of non-target species can apparently occur via multiple trophic transfer pathways involving birds as well as rodents.

Effects of density, species interactions, and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of British bird communities.

Our knowledge of the factors affecting species abundances is mainly based on time-series analyses of a few well-studied species at single or few localities, but we know little about whether results from such analyses can be extrapolated to the community level. We apply a joint species distribution model to long-term time-series data on British bird communities to examine the relative contribution of intra- and interspecific density dependence at different spatial scales, as well as the influence of environmental stochasticity, to spatiotemporal interspecific variation in abundance. Intraspecific density dependence has the major structuring effect on these bird communities. In addition, environmental fluctuations affect spatiotemporal differences in abundance. In contrast, species interactions had a minor impact on variation in abundance. Thus, important drivers of single-species dynamics are also strongly affecting dynamics of communities in time and space.

The influence of migration patterns on exposure to contaminants in Nearctic shorebirds: a historical study.

Since the 1970s, many populations of shorebirds, including those breeding in the Arctic region, have been declining. One factor that may contribute to some of these declines is exposure to contaminants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we compared contaminant exposure (organochlorines, toxic trace elements) of four Arctic-breeding shorebirds (semipalmated plover Charadrius semipalmatus, semipalmated sandpiper Calidris pusilla, lesser yellowlegs Tringa flavipes, and short-billed dowitcher Limnodromus griseus), collected during breeding, migration, and wintering to examine how and when contaminants might pose a threat to these species. In general, plovers and dowitchers had higher levels of most organochlorine pesticides, and renal cadmium (Cd) and selenium (Se) than the other species. Although we found seasonal differences, no clear patterns in contaminant concentrations among sampling locations were detected but the concentrations found at the breeding grounds were always the highest for chlorinated pesticides and mercury (Hg). Our results suggest that birds migrating south are slowly depurating contaminant burdens, and that spring-migrating birds were exposed to primarily North American rather than Latin American contaminant sources at the time of sampling. We present these data collected in the 1990s to better interpret current-day trends, and potential contaminant exposure impacts on shorebird populations.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Agricultural Management and Climatic Change Are the Major Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the UK.

Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species' populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species' populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species' population change (~1970-2012) has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates). In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs.

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales.

Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys.

Developing and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes: a collaborative assessment of priorities.

Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes.

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain.

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

Avian community responses to variability in river hydrology.

River flow is a major driver of morphological structure and community dynamics in riverine-floodplain ecosystems. Flow influences in-stream communities through changes in water velocity, depth, temperature, turbidity and nutrient fluxes, and perturbations in the organisation of lower trophic levels are cascaded through the food web, resulting in shifts in food availability for consumer species. River birds are sensitive to spatial and phenological mismatches with aquatic prey following flow disturbances; however, the role of flow as a determinant of riparian ecological structure remains poorly known. This knowledge is crucial to help to predict if, and how, riparian communities will be influenced by climate-induced changes in river flow characterised by more extreme high (i.e. flood) and/or low (i.e. drought) flow events. Here, we combine national-scale datasets of river bird surveys and river flow archives to understand how hydrological disturbance has affected the distribution of riparian species at higher trophic levels. Data were analysed for 71 river locations using a Generalized Additive Model framework and a model averaging procedure. Species had complex but biologically interpretable associations with hydrological indices, with species' responses consistent with their ecology, indicating that hydrological-disturbance has implications for higher trophic levels in riparian food webs. Our quantitative analysis of river flow-bird relationships demonstrates the potential vulnerability of riparian species to the impacts of changing flow variability and represents an important contribution in helping to understand how bird communities might respond to a climate change-induced increase in the intensity of floods and droughts. Moreover, the success in relating parameters of river flow variability to species' distributions highlights the need to include river flow data in climate change impact models of species' distributions.

Rarity, life history and scaling of the dynamics in time and space of British birds.

1. Many patterns in macroecology are closely related to the total abundance of a species in a region. Here we show that interspecific differences in the pattern of population fluctuations of British bird species can be predicted from knowledge of their overall abundance and some basic life-history characteristics. 2. We identify a rarity syndrome that arises through an increased stochastic influence on population fluctuations with decreasing population size, mainly resulting from an inverse density-dependent effect of demographic stochasticity. This syndrome involves an increase in the annual changes in population size with increasing rarity in the United Kingdom. 3. The relationship between the magnitude of temporal variation and local mean population size differs between species dependent on their life history, i.e. species with larger clutch size and lower survival tended to have larger annual changes in population size than low-reproducing long-lived species. 4. The probability of local disappearance from a study plot depended on the population size and was hence closely related to the overall abundance of the species in UK. For a given population size, this probability was also related to species-specific life-history characteristics, being higher in species with larger clutch sizes and smaller survival rates. 5. Rareness results in a spatial decoupling of the temporal variation in population size. 6. These patterns show that once a species has become rare, e.g. due to human activities, key population dynamical characteristics will change because of density-dependent stochastic effects, which in turn are dependent on species-specific life-history characteristics.

Critical parameters for predicting population fluctuations of some British passerines.

1. One of the greatest challenges in ecology is to develop tools that can give reliable projections of future population fluctuations as well as to quantity uncertainties. The population prediction interval (PPI), i.e. the stochastic interval that includes a given population size with a certain probability, is affected by changes in expected population size, e.g. due to density regulation, fluctuations in population size because of demographic and environmental stochasticity, uncertainties and biases in parameter estimates, and observation error in estimates of population size. 2. The aim of this study was to examine how PPI can be used to obtain reliable projections of future population fluctuations. Our approach is to split long time series into two parts: the first part is used for parameter estimation and the second part is used for comparing population predictions with actual population sizes after a certain period of time. 3. Here we use the Common Birds Census - data from the UK for several species of passerines. Unbiased predictions will give a uniform distribution of the recorded population sizes across the PPI when transformed to a scale defined by the quantiles of the PPI. However, deviations from a uniform distribution reveal biases in the predictions. For instance, if there is a predominance of recorded population sizes in the upper quantiles of the PPI, this shows that our predictions underestimate future population sizes. 4. Unbiased predictions required models that included both partitioning of stochastic influences into demographic and environmental stochasticity as well as observation error. 5. Precision in the population predictions was improved when including observation error as well as density dependence. 6. We recommend that predictions of future fluctuations of small passerine populations are based on models that include density dependence as well as observation error and estimates of the demographic variance that is obtained from individual-based demographic data or based on species-specific life-history characteristics. 7. These results show that constructing PPI by stochastic simulations may be a useful tool for obtaining reliable population projections.

Environmental contaminants in Canadian shorebirds.

Canadian shorebirds are exposed to environmental contaminants throughout their annual cycle. Contaminant exposure among species varies with diet, foraging behaviour and migration patterns. We sampled twelve species of shorebirds from four locations across Canada to assess their exposure to PCBs, organochlorine pesticides, as well as four trace elements (Hg, Se, Cd, As). SigmaPCB and SigmaDDT followed by SigmaCHL were most frequently found above trace level in the shorebird carcasses. In general, the plover species (American golden, semipalmated, black-bellied) appear to be the most contaminated with organochlorines, whereas Hudsonian and marbled godwits appear to be the least contaminated. Among adult birds, the greater and lesser yellowlegs had the highest hepatic Hg concentrations (2.4-2.7 microg g(-1) dw), whereas American golden plovers as well as Hudsonian and marbled godwits contained relatively low levels of Hg (<1 microg g(-1) dw). Renal Se concentrations varied from 3.2 to 16.7 microg g(-1) dw and exhibited little interspecific or seasonal variation. Renal Cd levels in adult birds were highest in Hudsonian godwits from Quill Lakes (43 microg g(-1) dw) and Cape Churchill (12 microg g(-1) dw), and lowest (0.8-1.5 microg g(-1) dw) in greater and lesser yellowlegs from Cape Churchill and Bay of Fundy. Renal As concentrations varied from 0.06 microg g(-1) dw in golden plovers from Cape Churchill to 4.6 and 5.1 microg g(-1) dw in dunlin samples from the Pacific coast. There is no evidence that contaminants were adversely affecting the shorebirds sampled from the Canadian locations in this study.

Winter availability of cereal stubbles attracts declining farmland birds and positively influences breeding population trends.

Many studies have demonstrated the selection of stubble fields by farmland birds in winter, but none have shown whether provisioning of this key habitat positively influences national population trends for widespread farmland birds. We use two complementary extensive bird surveys undertaken at the same localities in summer and winter and show that the area of stubble in winter attracts increased numbers of several bird species of conservation concern. Moreover, for several farmland specialists, the availability of stubble fields in winter positively influenced the 10 year breeding population trend (1994-2003) whereas hedgerow bird species were less affected. For skylarks and yellowhammers, initially negative trends showed recovery with 10-20 ha of stubble per 1 km square. Thus, agri-environment schemes that promote retention of over-winter stubbles will attract birds locally and are capable of reversing current population declines if stubbles are available in sufficient quantity.

Developing indicators for European birds.

The global pledge to deliver 'a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010' is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat.