High Juvenile Mortality Overwhelms Benefits of Mating Potential for Reproductive Fitness.

AbstractAn individual's access to mates (i.e., its "mating potential") can constrain its reproduction but may also influence its fitness through effects on offspring survival. For instance, mate proximity may correspond with relatedness and lead to inbreeding depression in offspring. While offspring production and survival might respond differently to mating potential, previous studies have not considered the simultaneous effects of mating potential on these fitness components. We investigated the relationship of mating potential with both production and survival of offspring in populations of a long-lived herbaceous perennial, Echinacea angustifolia. Across 7 years and 14 sites, we quantified the mating potential of maternal plants in 1,278 mating bouts and followed the offspring from these bouts over 8 years. We used aster models to evaluate the relationship of mating potential with the number of offspring that emerged and that were alive after 8 years. Seedling emergence increased with mating potential. Despite this, the number of offspring surviving after 8 years showed no relationship to mating potential. Our results support the broader conclusion that the effect of mating potential on fitness erodes over time because of demographic stochasticity at the maternal level.

How density dependence, genetic erosion and the extinction vortex impact evolutionary rescue.

Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity.

Fires slow population declines of a long-lived prairie plant through multiple vital rates.

In grasslands worldwide, modified fire cycles are accelerating herbaceous species extinctions. Fire may avert population declines by increasing survival, reproduction, or both. Survival and growth after fires may be promoted by removal of competitors or biomass and increasing resource availability. Fire-stimulated reproduction may also contribute to population growth through bolstered recruitment. We quantified these influences of fire on population dynamics in Echinacea angustifolia, a perennial forb in North American tallgrass prairie. We first used four datasets, 7-21 years long, to estimate fire's influences on survival, flowering, and recruitment. We then used matrix projection models to estimate growth rates across several burn frequencies in five populations, each with one to four burns over 15 years. Finally, we estimated the contribution of fire-induced changes in each vital rate to changes in population growth. Population growth rates generally increased with burning. The demographic process underpinning these increases depended on juvenile survival. In populations with high juvenile survival, fire-induced increases in seedling recruitment and juvenile survival enhanced population growth. However, in populations with low juvenile survival, small changes in adult survival drove growth rate changes. Regardless of burn frequencies, our models suggest populations are declining and that recruitment and juvenile survival critically influence population response to fire. However, crucially, increased seedling recruitment only increases population growth rates when enough new recruits reach reproductive maturity. The importance of recruitment and juvenile survival is especially relevant for small populations in fragmented habitats subject to mate-limiting Allee effects and inbreeding depression, which reduce recruitment and survival, respectively.