The Importance of Estimating Excess Deaths Regionally During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

National or statewide estimates of excess deaths have limited value to understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic regionally. We assessed excess deaths in a 9-county geographically defined population that had low rates of COVID-19 and widescale availability of testing early in the pandemic, well-annotated clinical data, and coverage by 2 medical examiner's offices. We compared mortality rates (MRs) per 100,000 person-years in 2020 and 2021 with those in the 2019 reference period and MR ratios (MRRs). In 2020 and 2021, 177 and 219 deaths, respectively, were attributed to COVID-19 (MR = 52 and 66 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). COVID-19 MRs were highest in males, older persons, those living in rural areas, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. Compared with 2019, we observed a 10% excess death rate in 2020 (MRR = 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.15]), with excess deaths in females, older adults, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. In contrast, we did not observe excess deaths overall in 2021 compared with 2019 (MRR = 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.10]). However, those aged 18 to 39 years (MRR = 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.80) and those with 0 or 1 chronic condition (MRR = 1.28 [95% CI, 1.05 to 1.56]) or 7 or more chronic conditions (MRR = 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.15]) had increased mortality compared with 2019. This work highlights the value of leveraging regional populations that experienced a similar pandemic wave timeline, mitigation strategies, testing availability, and data quality.

Tumor mutational load is prognostic for progression to therapy among high-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis.

ABSTRACT: High-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL) is a precursor condition to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We have shown that among individuals with HCMBL, the CLL-International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) is prognostic for time-to-first therapy (TTFT). Little is known about the prognostic impact of somatically mutated genes among individuals with HCMBL. We sequenced DNA from 371 individuals with HCMBL using a targeted sequencing panel of 59 recurrently mutated genes in CLL to identify high-impact mutations. We compared the sequencing results with that of our treatment-naïve CLL cohort (N = 855) and used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with TTFT. The frequencies of any mutated genes were lower in HCMBL (52%) than CLL (70%). At 10 years, 37% of individuals with HCMBL with any mutated gene had progressed requiring treatment compared with 10% among individuals with HCMBL with no mutations; this led to 5.4-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 2.6-11.0) among HCMBL with any mutated gene vs none, independent of CLL-IPI. When considering individuals with low risk of progression according to CLL-IPI, those with HCMBL with any mutations had 4.3-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 1.6-11.8) vs those with none. Finally, when considering both CLL-IPI and any mutated gene status, we observed individuals with HCMBL who were high risk for both prognostic factors had worse prognosis than patients with low-risk CLL (ie, 5-year progression rate of 32% vs 21%, respectively). Among HCMBL, the frequency of somatically mutated genes at diagnosis is lower than that of CLL. Accounting for both the number of mutated genes and CLL-IPI can identify individuals with HCMBL with more aggressive clinical course.

Breast Cancer Risk Perceptions Among Underserved, Hispanic Women: Implications for Risk-Based Approaches to Screening.

BACKGROUND: Understanding factors that shape breast cancer risk perceptions is essential for implementing risk-based approaches to breast cancer detection and prevention. This study aimed to assess multilevel factors, including prior screening behavior, shaping underserved, Hispanic women's perceived risk for breast cancer. METHODS: Secondary analysis of survey data from Hispanic women (N = 1325, 92% Spanish speaking, 64% < 50) enrolled in a large randomized controlled trial. Analyses were performed in two cohorts to account for the role of age on screening guideline recommendations (< 50 and 50 +). For each cohort, we examined differences in three common measures of perceived risk of breast cancer (percent lifetime, ordinal lifetime, comparative) by participant factors with chi-square or Kruskal-Wallis tests, as appropriate. Multivariate analyses examined the association between mammography history with percent perceived lifetime risk (outcome > 10 vs ≤ 10%). RESULTS: Overall, 75% reported a lifetime risk between 0 and 10%, 96% rated their ordinal risk as "not high," and 50% rated their comparative risk as "much lower." Women < 50 with a family history of breast cancer reported significantly higher levels of perceived risk across all three measures. Among women 50 + , those reporting lower levels of perceived risk were significantly more likely to be Spanish speaking. No significant association was observed between mammography history and percent lifetime risk of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Factors shaping breast cancer risk perceptions differ by age. Prior screening may play less of role in constructing risk perceptions. Research is needed to develop culturally and linguistically appropriate strategies to improve implementation of risk-based screening.

Polymorphisms within Autophagy-Related Genes as Susceptibility Biomarkers for Multiple Myeloma: A Meta-Analysis of Three Large Cohorts and Functional Characterization.

Multiple myeloma (MM) arises following malignant proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, that secrete high amounts of specific monoclonal immunoglobulins or light chains, resulting in the massive production of unfolded or misfolded proteins. Autophagy can have a dual role in tumorigenesis, by eliminating these abnormal proteins to avoid cancer development, but also ensuring MM cell survival and promoting resistance to treatments. To date no studies have determined the impact of genetic variation in autophagy-related genes on MM risk. We performed meta-analysis of germline genetic data on 234 autophagy-related genes from three independent study populations including 13,387 subjects of European ancestry (6863 MM patients and 6524 controls) and examined correlations of statistically significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; p < 1 × 10-9) with immune responses in whole blood, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), and monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) from a large population of healthy donors from the Human Functional Genomic Project (HFGP). We identified SNPs in six loci, CD46, IKBKE, PARK2, ULK4, ATG5, and CDKN2A associated with MM risk (p = 4.47 × 10-4-5.79 × 10-14). Mechanistically, we found that the ULK4rs6599175 SNP correlated with circulating concentrations of vitamin D3 (p = 4.0 × 10-4), whereas the IKBKErs17433804 SNP correlated with the number of transitional CD24+CD38+ B cells (p = 4.8 × 10-4) and circulating serum concentrations of Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein (MCP)-2 (p = 3.6 × 10-4). We also found that the CD46rs1142469 SNP correlated with numbers of CD19+ B cells, CD19+CD3- B cells, CD5+IgD- cells, IgM- cells, IgD-IgM- cells, and CD4-CD8- PBMCs (p = 4.9 × 10-4-8.6 × 10-4) and circulating concentrations of interleukin (IL)-20 (p = 0.00082). Finally, we observed that the CDKN2Ars2811710 SNP correlated with levels of CD4+EMCD45RO+CD27- cells (p = 9.3 × 10-4). These results suggest that genetic variants within these six loci influence MM risk through the modulation of specific subsets of immune cells, as well as vitamin D3-, MCP-2-, and IL20-dependent pathways.

Do GWAS-Identified Risk Variants for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Influence Overall Patient Survival and Disease Progression?

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common leukemia among adults worldwide. Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered the germline genetic component underlying CLL susceptibility, the potential use of GWAS-identified risk variants to predict disease progression and patient survival remains unexplored. Here, we evaluated whether 41 GWAS-identified risk variants for CLL could influence overall survival (OS) and disease progression, defined as time to first treatment (TTFT) in a cohort of 1039 CLL cases ascertained through the CRuCIAL consortium. Although this is the largest study assessing the effect of GWAS-identified susceptibility variants for CLL on OS, we only found a weak association of ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with OS (p < 0.05) that did not remain significant after correction for multiple testing. In line with these results, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) built with these SNPs in the CRuCIAL cohort showed a modest association with OS and a low capacity to predict patient survival, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.57. Similarly, seven SNPs were associated with TTFT (p < 0.05); however, these did not reach the multiple testing significance threshold, and the meta-analysis with previous published data did not confirm any of the associations. As expected, PRSs built with these SNPs showed reduced accuracy in prediction of disease progression (AUROC = 0.62). These results suggest that susceptibility variants for CLL do not impact overall survival and disease progression in CLL patients.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence System and Volumetric Density on Risk Prediction of Interval, Screen-Detected, and Advanced Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms improve breast cancer detection on mammography, but their contribution to long-term risk prediction for advanced and interval cancers is unknown. METHODS: We identified 2,412 women with invasive breast cancer and 4,995 controls matched on age, race, and date of mammogram, from two US mammography cohorts, who had two-dimensional full-field digital mammograms performed 2-5.5 years before cancer diagnosis. We assessed Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System density, an AI malignancy score (1-10), and volumetric density measures. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs), 95% CIs, adjusted for age and BMI, and C-statistics (AUC) to describe the association of AI score with invasive cancer and its contribution to models with breast density measures. Likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) and bootstrapping methods were used to compare model performance. RESULTS: On mammograms between 2-5.5 years prior to cancer, a one unit increase in AI score was associated with 20% greater odds of invasive breast cancer (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.22; AUC, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.64) and was similarly predictive of interval (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.27; AUC, 0.63) and advanced cancers (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.31; AUC, 0.64) and in dense (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.22; AUC, 0.66) breasts. AI score improved prediction of all cancer types in models with density measures (PLRT values < .001); discrimination improved for advanced cancer (ie, AUC for dense volume increased from 0.624 to 0.679, Δ AUC 0.065, P = .01) but did not reach statistical significance for interval cancer. CONCLUSION: AI imaging algorithms coupled with breast density independently contribute to long-term risk prediction of invasive breast cancers, in particular, advanced cancer.

A pleiotropic variant in DNAJB4 is associated with multiple myeloma risk.

Pleiotropy, which consists of a single gene or allelic variant affecting multiple unrelated traits, is common across cancers, with evidence for genome-wide significant loci shared across cancer and noncancer traits. This feature is particularly relevant in multiple myeloma (MM) because several susceptibility loci that have been identified to date are pleiotropic. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify novel pleiotropic variants involved in MM risk using 28 684 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from GWAS Catalog that reached a significant association (P < 5 × 10-8 ) with their respective trait. The selected SNPs were analyzed in 2434 MM cases and 3446 controls from the International Lymphoma Epidemiology Consortium (InterLymph). The 10 SNPs showing the strongest associations with MM risk in InterLymph were selected for replication in an independent set of 1955 MM cases and 1549 controls from the International Multiple Myeloma rESEarch (IMMEnSE) consortium and 418 MM cases and 147 282 controls from the FinnGen project. The combined analysis of the three studies identified an association between DNAJB4-rs34517439-A and an increased risk of developing MM (OR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.13-1.32, P = 4.81 × 10-7 ). rs34517439-A is associated with a modified expression of the FUBP1 gene, which encodes a multifunctional DNA and RNA-binding protein that it was observed to influence the regulation of various genes involved in cell cycle regulation, among which various oncogenes and oncosuppressors. In conclusion, with a pleiotropic scan approach we identified DNAJB4-rs34517439 as a potentially novel MM risk locus.

Physical activity and the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes: A pooled analysis.

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is composed of a heterogeneous collection of subtypes with considerable differences in genetics, biology and aetiology. Studies to date on physical activity and NHL risk have not had sufficient sample size to evaluate whether associations differ by subtype. We pooled data from nine case-control studies to examine the association between moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) and risk of NHL overall and by subtype (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma, marginal zone lymphoma and mature T-cell lymphoma). A total of 5653 cases and 9115 controls were included in the pooled analysis. Physical activity was harmonised across nine studies and modelled as study-specific tertiles. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the association between physical activity and NHL, adjusting for confounders. The overall odds of NHL was 13% lower among participants in the most active tertile of MVPA compared to the least active tertile (adjusted odds ratio = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.80, 0.95). Similar decreases were observed across NHL subtypes. In summary, in this pooled analysis of case-control studies, physical activity was associated with a modest risk reduction for each NHL subtype examined and with overall NHL.

Rates of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Infection and Associated Factors in Olmsted County, Minnesota, in the Prevaccination Era.

Objective: To estimate rates and identify factors associated with asymptomatic COVID-19 in the population of Olmsted County during the prevaccination era. Patients and Methods: We screened first responders (n=191) and Olmsted County employees (n=564) for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from November 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 to estimate seroprevalence and asymptomatic infection. Second, we retrieved all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses in Olmsted County from March 2020 through January 2021, abstracted symptom information, estimated rates of asymptomatic infection and examined related factors. Results: Twenty (10.5%; 95% CI, 6.9%-15.6%) first responders and 38 (6.7%; 95% CI, 5.0%-9.1%) county employees had positive antibodies; an additional 5 (2.6%) and 10 (1.8%) had prior positive PCR tests per self-report or medical record, but no antibodies detected. Of persons with symptom information, 4 of 20 (20%; 95% CI, 3.0%-37.0%) first responders and 10 of 39 (26%; 95% CI, 12.6%-40.0%) county employees were asymptomatic. Of 6020 positive PCR tests in Olmsted County with symptom information between March 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021, 6% (n=385; 95% CI, 5.8%-7.1%) were asymptomatic. Factors associated with asymptomatic disease included age (0-18 years [odds ratio {OR}, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.1] and >65 years [OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0] compared with ages 19-44 years), body mass index (overweight [OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.44-0.77] or obese [OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.57-0.62] compared with normal or underweight) and tests after November 20, 2020 ([OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.71] compared with prior dates). Conclusion: Asymptomatic rates in Olmsted County before COVID-19 vaccine rollout ranged from 6% to 25%, and younger age, normal weight, and later tests dates were associated with asymptomatic infection.

Progression and survival of MBL: a screening study of 10 139 individuals.

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a common hematological premalignant condition that is understudied in screening cohorts. MBL can be classified into low-count (LC) and high-count (HC) types based on the size of the B-cell clone. Using the Mayo Clinic Biobank, we screened for MBL and evaluated its association with future hematologic malignancy and overall survival (OS). We had a two-stage study design including discovery and validation cohorts. We screened for MBL using an eight-color flow-cytometry assay. Medical records were abstracted for hematological cancers and death. We used Cox regression to evaluate associations and estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age and sex. We identified 1712 (17%) individuals with MBL (95% LC-MBL), and the median follow-up time for OS was 34.4 months with 621 individuals who died. We did not observe an association with OS among individuals with LC-MBL (P = .78) but did among HC-MBL (hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1; P = .03). Among the discovery cohort with a median of 10.0 years follow-up, 31 individuals developed hematological cancers with two-thirds being lymphoid malignancies. MBL was associated with 3.6-fold risk of hematological cancer compared to controls (95% CI, 1.7-7.7; P < .001) and 7.7-fold increased risk for lymphoid malignancies (95% CI:3.1-19.2; P < .001). LC-MBL was associated with 4.3-fold risk of lymphoid malignancies (95% CI, 1.4-12.7; P = .009); HC-MBL had a 74-fold increased risk (95% CI, 22-246; P < .001). In this large screening cohort, we observed similar survival among individuals with and without LC-MBL, yet individuals with LC-MBL have a fourfold increased risk of lymphoid malignancies. Accumulating evidence indicates that there are clinical consequences to LC-MBL, a condition that affects 8 to 10 million adults in the United States.

A precision medicine approach to metabolic therapy for breast cancer in mice.

Increasing evidence highlights approaches targeting metabolism as potential adjuvants to cancer therapy. Sodium-glucose transport protein 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are the newest class of antihyperglycemic drugs. To our knowledge, SGLT2 inhibitors have not been applied in the neoadjuvant setting as a precision medicine approach for this devastating disease. Here, we treat lean breast tumor-bearing mice with the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin as monotherapy and in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy. We show that dapagliflozin enhances the efficacy of paclitaxel, reducing tumor glucose uptake and prolonging survival. Further, the ability of dapagliflozin to enhance the efficacy of chemotherapy correlates with its effect to reduce circulating insulin in some but not all breast tumors. Our data suggest a genetic signature for breast tumors more likely to respond to dapagliflozin in combination with paclitaxel. In the current study, tumors driven by mutations upstream of canonical insulin signaling pathways responded to this combined treatment, whereas tumors driven by mutations downstream of canonical insulin signaling did not. These data demonstrate that dapagliflozin enhances the response to chemotherapy in mice with breast cancer and suggest that patients with driver mutations upstream of canonical insulin signaling may be most likely to benefit from this neoadjuvant approach.

Body mass index associated with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) progression in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant clonal disorder that progresses to multiple myeloma (MM), or other plasma-cell or lymphoid disorders at a rate of 1%/year. We evaluate the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to MGUS progression beyond established clinical factors in a population-based study. We identified 594 MGUS through a population-based screening study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1995 and 2003. Follow-up time was calculated from the date of MGUS to last follow-up, death, or progression to MM/another plasma-cell/lymphoid disorder. BMI (kg/m2 < 25/≥25) was measured close to screening date. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of BMI ≥ 25 versus BMI < 25 with MGUS progression and also evaluated the corresponding c-statistic and 95% CI to describe discrimination of the model for MGUS progression. Median follow-up was 10.5 years (range:0-25), while 465 patients died and 57 progressed and developed MM (N = 39), AL amyloidosis (N = 8), lymphoma (N = 5), or Waldenstrom-macroglobulinemia (N = 5). In univariate analyses, BMI ≥ 25 (HR = 2.14,CI:1.05-4.36, P = 0.04), non-IgG (HR = 2.84, CI:1.68-4.80, P = 0.0001), high monoclonal (M) protein (HR = 2.57, CI:1.50-4.42, P = 0.001), and abnormal free light chain ratio (FLCr) (HR = 3.39, CI:1.98-5.82, P < 0.0001) were associated with increased risk of MGUS progression, and were independently associated in a multivariable model (c-statistic = 0.75, CI:0.68-0.82). The BMI association was stronger among females (HR = 3.55, CI:1.06-11.9, P = 0.04) vs. males (HR = 1.39, CI:0.57-3.36, P = 0.47), although the interaction between BMI and sex was not significant (P = 0.15). In conclusion, high BMI is a prognostic factor for MGUS progression, independent of isotype, M protein, and FLCr. This association may be stronger among females.

Prevalence of heavy chain MGUS by race and family history risk groups using a high-sensitivity screening method.

Mass-spectrometry (MS) assays detect lower levels of monoclonal proteins and result in earlier detection of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). We examined heavy chain MGUS prevalence using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) MS among 3 risk groups, ages 50 or older: 327 African Americans (AA) and 1223 European Americans (EA) from a clinical biobank and 1093 unaffected first-degree relatives (FDR) of patients with hematologic disorders. Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were directly standardized to 2010 United States population. Prevalence ratios were estimated for comparisons of AA and FDR to the EA group using the Poisson distribution. Results were also compared with population-based prevalence using conventional gel-based methods. Risk groups had similar sex and age distributions. MALDI-TOF MGUS prevalence was higher in the AA (16.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.2%, 20.8%]) and FDR (18.3% [95% CI, 16.6%, 21.6%]) than in EA (10.8% [95% CI, 8.8%, 12.7%]), translating to prevalence ratios of 1.73 (95% CI, 1.31, 2.29) and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.55, 2.34), respectively. MALDI-TOF EA prevalence was over threefold higher than conventional estimates but showed similar age trends. Thus, the MALDI-TOF assay found greater numbers with MGUS but similar relative differences by race, family history, and age as prior studies.

Breast Density Knowledge and Awareness Among Latinas in a Low-Resource Setting.

PURPOSE: Latinas in low-resource settings face additional barriers to understanding mammographic breast density (MBD) implications. The authors compared MBD awareness and knowledge in Latinas from a safety-net clinic in Arizona with a national sample. METHODS: Latinas 40 to 74 years of age were recruited within a safety-net clinic during screening mammography appointments from 2016 to 2019 (AZ cohort) and from a nationally representative online panel in 2017 (NS cohort). Surveys completed in either English or Spanish assessed awareness and knowledge of MBD. Chi-square tests and logistic regression were used for comparisons. RESULTS: The NS cohort (n = 152) was older, more educated, more likely to have undergone prior mammography, and more likely to prefer English compared with the AZ cohort (n = 1,327) (P ≤ .03 for all) The NS cohort was more likely to be aware of MBD (32.6% versus 20.7%). Of those aware, the NS cohort was more likely to understand MBD's effect on masking (67.8% versus 37.0%) and breast cancer risk (72.2% versus 32.6%) compared with the AZ cohort (P ≤ .001 for all). Adjusting for age, education, screening history, and language, MBD awareness was similar between the two cohorts (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj], 0.95; P = .83), but knowledge of MBD as a masking factor (ORadj, 2.8; P = .03) and risk factor (ORadj, 7.2; P < .001) remained higher in the NS cohort compared with the AZ cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in MBD awareness, but not knowledge, between Latinas in a low-resource setting compared with a national sample could be explained by age, education, screening history, and language preference, underscoring the need for tailored approaches to MBD education among Latinas.