Author Correction: Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Perspectives on the prediction of catastrophic slope failures from satellite InSAR.

We demonstrate the potential of satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to identify precursors to catastrophic slope failures. To date, early-warning has mostly relied on the availability of detailed, high-frequency data from sensors installed in situ. The same purpose could not be chased through spaceborne monitoring applications, as these could not yield information acquired in sufficiently systematic fashion. Here we present three sets of Sentinel-1 constellation images processed by means of multi-interferometric analysis. We detect clear trends of accelerating displacement prior to the catastrophic failure of three large slopes of very different nature: an open-pit mine slope, a natural rock slope in alpine terrain, and a tailings dam embankment. We determine that these events could have been located several days or weeks in advance. The results highlight that satellite InSAR may now be used to support decision making and enhance predictive ability for this type of hazard.

Continuous, semi-automatic monitoring of ground deformation using Sentinel-1 satellites.

We present the continuous monitoring of ground deformation at regional scale using ESA (European Space Agency) Sentinel-1constellation of satellites. We discuss this operational monitoring service through the case study of the Tuscany Region (Central Italy), selected due to its peculiar geological setting prone to ground instability phenomena. We set up a systematic processing chain of Sentinel-1 acquisitions to create continuously updated ground deformation data to mark the transition from static satellite analysis, based on the analysis of archive images, to dynamic monitoring of ground displacement. Displacement time series, systematically updated with the most recent available Sentinel-1 acquisition, are analysed to identify anomalous points (i.e., points where a change in the dynamic of motion is occurring). The presence of a cluster of persistent anomalies affecting elements at risk determines a significant level of risk, with the necessity of further analysis. Here, we show that the Sentinel-1 constellation can be used for continuous and systematic tracking of ground deformation phenomena at the regional scale. Our results demonstrate how satellite data, acquired with short revisiting times and promptly processed, can contribute to the detection of changes in ground deformation patterns and can act as a key information layer for risk mitigation.

New insights into earthquake precursors from InSAR.

We measured ground displacements before and after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake using multi-temporal InSAR techniques to identify seismic precursor signals. We estimated the ground deformation and its temporal evolution by exploiting a large dataset of SAR imagery that spans seventy-two months before and sixteen months after the mainshock. These satellite data show that up to 15 mm of subsidence occurred beginning three years before the mainshock. This deformation occurred within two Quaternary basins that are located close to the epicentral area and are filled with sediments hosting multi-layer aquifers. After the earthquake, the same basins experienced up to 12 mm of uplift over approximately nine months. Before the earthquake, the rocks at depth dilated, and fractures opened. Consequently, fluids migrated into the dilated volume, thereby lowering the groundwater table in the carbonate hydrostructures and in the hydrologically connected multi-layer aquifers within the basins. This process caused the elastic consolidation of the fine-grained sediments within the basins, resulting in the detected subsidence. After the earthquake, the fractures closed, and the deep fluids were squeezed out. The pre-seismic ground displacements were then recovered because the groundwater table rose and natural recharge of the shallow multi-layer aquifers occurred, which caused the observed uplift.

Space geodesy: subsidence and flooding in New Orleans.

It has long been recognized that New Orleans is subsiding and is therefore susceptible to catastrophic flooding. Here we present a new subsidence map for the city, generated from space-based synthetic-aperture radar measurements, which reveals that parts of New Orleans underwent rapid subsidence in the three years before Hurricane Katrina struck in August 2005. One such area is next to the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) canal, where levees failed during the peak storm surge: the map indicates that this weakness could be explained by subsidence of a metre or more since their construction.

Dynamics of slow-moving landslides from permanent scatterer analysis.

High-resolution interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) permanent scatterer data allow us to resolve the rates and variations in the rates of slow-moving landslides. Satellite-to-ground distances (range changes) on landslides increase at rates of 5 to 7 millimeters per year, indicating average downslope sliding velocities from 27 to 38 millimeters per year. Time-series analysis shows that displacement occurs mainly during the high-precipitation season; during the 1997-1998 El Niño event, rates of range change increased to as much as 11 millimeters per year. The observed nonlinear relationship of creep and precipitation rates suggests that increased pore fluid pressures within the shallow subsurface may initiate and accelerate these features. Changes in the slope of a hill resulting from increases in the pore pressure and lithostatic stress gradients may then lead to landslides.