Association between wealth, insurance coverage, urban residence, median age and COVID-19 deaths across states in Nigeria.

This study measures associations between COVID-19 deaths and sociodemographic factors (wealth, insurance coverage, urban residence, age, state population) for states in Nigeria across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: February 27th 2020 to October 24th 2020 and October 25th 2020 to July 25th 2021. Data sources include 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) COVID-19 daily reports. It uses negative binomial models to model deaths, and stratifies results by respondent gender. It finds that overall mortality rates were concentrated within three states: Lagos, Edo and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja. Urban residence and insurance coverage are positively associated with differences in deaths for the full sample. The former, however, is significant only during the early stages of the pandemic. Associative differences in gender-stratified models suggest that wealth was a stronger protective factor for men and insurance a stronger protective factor for women. Associative strength between sociodemographic measures and deaths varies by gender and pandemic wave, suggesting that the pandemic impacted men and women in unique ways, and that the effectiveness of interventions should be evaluated for specific waves or periods.

Use of machine learning methods to understand discussions of female genital mutilation/cutting on social media.

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) describes several procedures that involve injury to the vulva or vagina for nontherapeutic reasons. Though at least 200 million women and girls living in 30 countries have undergone FGM/C, there is a paucity of studies focused on public perception of FGM/C. We used machine learning methods to characterize discussion of FGM/C on Twitter in English from 2015 to 2020. Twitter has emerged in recent years as a source for seeking and sharing health information and misinformation. We extracted text metadata from user profiles to characterize the individuals and locations involved in conversations about FGM/C. We extracted major discussion themes from posts using correlated topic modeling. Finally, we extracted features from posts and applied random forest models to predict user engagement. The volume of tweets addressing FGM/C remained fairly stable across years. Conversation was mostly concentrated among the United States and United Kingdom through 2017, but shifted to Nigeria and Kenya in 2020. Some of the discussion topics associated with FGM/C across years included Islam, International Day of Zero Tolerance, current news stories, education, activism, male circumcision, human rights, and feminism. Tweet length and follower count were consistently strong predictors of engagement. Our findings suggest that (1) discussion about FGM/C has not evolved significantly over time, (2) the majority of the conversation about FGM/C on English-speaking Twitter is advocating for an end to the practice, (3) supporters of Donald Trump make up a substantial voice in the conversation about FGM/C, and (4) understanding the nuances in how people across cultures refer to and discuss FGM/C could be important for the design of public health communication and intervention.

COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022.

Importance: Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased. Objective: To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023. Exposures: Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates. Results: There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

Association of Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Composition and Historical Redlining With Built Environment Indicators Derived From Street View Images in the US.

Importance: Racist policies (such as redlining) create inequities in the built environment, producing racially and ethnically segregated communities, poor housing conditions, unwalkable neighborhoods, and general disadvantage. Studies on built environment disparities are usually limited to measures and data that are available from existing sources or can be manually collected. Objective: To use built environment indicators generated from online street-level images to investigate the association among neighborhood racial and ethnic composition, the built environment, and health outcomes across urban areas in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using built environment indicators derived from 164 million Google Street View images collected from November 1 to 30, 2019. Race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic data were obtained from the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates; health outcomes were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020 Population Level Analysis and Community Estimates (PLACES) data set. Multilevel modeling and mediation analysis were applied. A total of 59 231 urban census tracts in the US were included. The online images and the ACS data included all census tracts. The PLACES data comprised survey respondents 18 years or older. Data were analyzed from May 23 to November 16, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated association between image-derived built environment indicators and census tract (neighborhood) racial and ethnic composition, and the association of the built environment with neighborhood racial composition and health. Results: The racial and ethnic composition in the 59 231 urban census tracts was 1 160 595 (0.4%) American Indian and Alaska Native, 53 321 345 (19.5%) Hispanic, 462 259 (0.2%) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, 17 166 370 (6.3%) non-Hispanic Asian, 35 985 480 (13.2%) non-Hispanic Black, and 158 043 260 (57.7%) non-Hispanic White residents. Compared with other neighborhoods, predominantly White neighborhoods had fewer dilapidated buildings and more green space indicators, usually associated with good health, and fewer crosswalks (eg, neighborhoods with predominantly minoritized racial or ethnic groups other than Black residents had 6% more dilapidated buildings than neighborhoods with predominantly White residents). Moreover, the built environment indicators partially mediated the association between neighborhood racial and ethnic composition and health outcomes, including diabetes, asthma, and sleeping problems. The most significant mediator was non-single family homes (a measure associated with homeownership), which mediated the association between neighborhoods with predominantly minority racial or ethnic groups other than Black residents and sleeping problems by 12.8% and the association between unclassified neighborhoods and asthma by 24.2%. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings in this cross-sectional study suggest that large geographically representative data sets, if used appropriately, may provide novel insights on racial and ethnic health inequities. Quantifying the impact of structural racism on social determinants of health is one step toward developing policies and interventions to create equitable built environment resources.

Geographic and Temporal Patterns in Covid-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022.

Prior research has established that American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, and Pacific Islander populations in the United States have experienced substantially higher mortality rates from Covid-19 compared to non-Hispanic white residents during the first year of the pandemic. What remains less clear is how mortality rates have changed for each of these racial/ethnic groups during 2021, given the increasing prevalence of vaccination. In particular, it is unknown how these changes in mortality have varied geographically. In this study, we used provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to produce age-standardized estimates of Covid-19 mortality by race/ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022 in each metro-nonmetro category, Census region, and Census division. We calculated changes in mortality rates between the first and second years of the pandemic and examined mortality changes by month. We found that when Covid-19 first affected a geographic area, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic populations experienced extremely high levels of Covid-19 mortality and racial/ethnic inequity that were not repeated at any other time during the pandemic. Between the first and second year of the pandemic, racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased-but were not eliminated-for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic AIAN residents. These inequities decreased due to reductions in mortality for these populations alongside increases in non-Hispanic white mortality. Though racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased, substantial inequities still existed in most geographic areas during the pandemic's second year: Non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic AIAN, and Hispanic residents reported higher Covid-19 death rates in rural areas than in urban areas, indicating that these communities are facing serious public health challenges. At the same time, the non-Hispanic white mortality rate worsened in rural areas during the second year of the pandemic, suggesting there may be unique factors driving mortality in this population. Finally, vaccination rates were associated with reductions in Covid-19 mortality for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white residents, and increased vaccination may have contributed to the decreases in racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality observed during the second year of the pandemic. Despite reductions in mortality, Covid-19 mortality remained elevated in nonmetro areas and increased for some racial/ethnic groups, highlighting the need for increased vaccination delivery and equitable public health measures especially in rural communities. Taken together, these findings highlight the continued need to prioritize health equity in the pandemic response and to modify the structures and policies through which systemic racism operates and has generated racial health inequities.

Diet during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of Twitter data.

In this study, we measured the association between county characteristics and changes in healthy-food, fast-food, and alcohol tweets during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Our analytic dataset consisted of 1,282,316 geotagged tweets that referenced food consumption posted before (63.2%) and during (36.8%) the pandemic and included all US states. We found the share of healthy-food tweets increased by 20.5% during the pandemic compared with pre-pandemic, while fast-food and alcohol tweets decreased by 9.4% and 11.4%, respectively. We also observed that time spent at home and more grocery stores per capita were associated with increased odds of healthy-food tweets and decreased odds of fast-food tweets. More liquor stores per capita was associated with increased odds of alcohol tweets. Our results highlight the potential impact of the pandemic on nutrition and alcohol consumption and the association between the built environment and health behaviors.

Towards better Data Science to address racial bias and health equity.

Data Science can be used to address racial health inequities. However, a wealth of scholarship has shown that there are many ethical challenges with using Data Science to address social problems. To develop a Data Science focused on racial health equity, we need the data, methods, application, and communication approaches to be antiracist and focused on serving minoritized groups that have long-standing worse health indicators than majority groups. In this perspective, we propose eight tenets that could shape a Data Science for Racial Health Equity research framework.

COVID-19 and beyond: Use of digital technology for pandemic response in Africa.

The use of technology has been ubiquitous in efforts to combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this perspective, we review technologies and new approaches developed at the start of the pandemic; efforts earmarked by a flexible approach to problem solving, local tech entrepreneurship, and swift adoption of technology. We performed a systematic review of the use of technology during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in most African countries. We identified relevant articles by searching for mentions of technology, COVID-19, and specific country names. Articles were included if they specifically mentioned the use of technology or novel innovations in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in an African country. The article search was conducted in August and included articles published between January and August 2020. We retrieved articles from journals, trusted news, government, and organization websites on Google, Google Scholar and PubMed. A total of 80 articles were retained and categorized under Disease Prevention (19 articles), Disease Surveillance xxx Antipoaching Tech Tracks COVID-19 Flare-Ups in South Africa - Scientific American. (2020, May 12), and Clinical Supplies and Management xxx Ethiopia's digital health response to COVID-19 - JSI. (2020, May 14). African nations used technology and innovative techniques to manage patients, monitor cases and disseminate information to counter the spread of COVID-19. The nature and outcomes of these efforts sometimes differed in Africa compared to other regions of the world due to its unique challenges and opportunities.

Privacy-first health research with federated learning.

Privacy protection is paramount in conducting health research. However, studies often rely on data stored in a centralized repository, where analysis is done with full access to the sensitive underlying content. Recent advances in federated learning enable building complex machine-learned models that are trained in a distributed fashion. These techniques facilitate the calculation of research study endpoints such that private data never leaves a given device or healthcare system. We show-on a diverse set of single and multi-site health studies-that federated models can achieve similar accuracy, precision, and generalizability, and lead to the same interpretation as standard centralized statistical models while achieving considerably stronger privacy protections and without significantly raising computational costs. This work is the first to apply modern and general federated learning methods that explicitly incorporate differential privacy to clinical and epidemiological research-across a spectrum of units of federation, model architectures, complexity of learning tasks and diseases. As a result, it enables health research participants to remain in control of their data and still contribute to advancing science-aspects that used to be at odds with each other.

Monitoring Information-Seeking Patterns and Obesity Prevalence in Africa With Internet Search Data: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of chronic conditions such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in African countries. Many chronic diseases have been linked to risk factors such as poor diet and physical inactivity. Data for these behavioral risk factors are usually obtained from surveys, which can be delayed by years. Behavioral data from digital sources, including social media and search engines, could be used for timely monitoring of behavioral risk factors. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to propose the use of digital data from internet sources for monitoring changes in behavioral risk factors in Africa. METHODS: We obtained the adjusted volume of search queries submitted to Google for 108 terms related to diet, exercise, and disease from 2010 to 2016. We also obtained the obesity and overweight prevalence for 52 African countries from the World Health Organization (WHO) for the same period. Machine learning algorithms (ie, random forest, support vector machine, Bayes generalized linear model, gradient boosting, and an ensemble of the individual methods) were used to identify search terms and patterns that correlate with changes in obesity and overweight prevalence across Africa. Out-of-sample predictions were used to assess and validate the model performance. RESULTS: The study included 52 African countries. In 2016, the WHO reported an overweight prevalence ranging from 20.9% (95% credible interval [CI] 17.1%-25.0%) to 66.8% (95% CI 62.4%-71.0%) and an obesity prevalence ranging from 4.5% (95% CI 2.9%-6.5%) to 32.5% (95% CI 27.2%-38.1%) in Africa. The highest obesity and overweight prevalence were noted in the northern and southern regions. Google searches for diet-, exercise-, and obesity-related terms explained 97.3% (root-mean-square error [RMSE] 1.15) of the variation in obesity prevalence across all 52 countries. Similarly, the search data explained 96.6% (RMSE 2.26) of the variation in the overweight prevalence. The search terms yoga, exercise, and gym were most correlated with changes in obesity and overweight prevalence in countries with the highest prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Information-seeking patterns for diet- and exercise-related terms could indicate changes in attitudes toward and engagement in risk factors or healthy behaviors. These trends could capture population changes in risk factor prevalence, inform digital and physical interventions, and supplement official data from surveys.

Forecasting influenza-like illness trends in Cameroon using Google Search Data.

Although acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, surveillance of diseases such as influenza is mostly neglected. Evaluating the usefulness of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance systems and developing approaches for forecasting future trends is important for pandemic preparedness. We applied and compared a range of robust statistical and machine learning models including random forest (RF) regression, support vector machines (SVM) regression, multivariable linear regression and ARIMA models to forecast 2012 to 2018 trends of reported ILI cases in Cameroon, using Google searches for influenza symptoms, treatments, natural or traditional remedies as well as, infectious diseases with a high burden (i.e., AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis). The R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) were statistically similar across most of the methods, however, RF and SVM had the highest average R2 (0.78 and 0.88, respectively) for predicting ILI per 100,000 persons at the country level. This study demonstrates the need for developing contextualized approaches when using digital data for disease surveillance and the usefulness of search data for monitoring ILI in sub-Saharan African countries.

Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Physical distancing has been the primary strategy to control COVID-19 in the United States. We used mobility data from a large, anonymized sample of smartphone users to assess the relationship between neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the pandemic. We found a strong gradient between neighbourhood income and physical distancing. Individuals in high-income neighbourhoods increased their days at home substantially more than individuals in low-income neighbourhoods did. Residents of low-income neighbourhoods were more likely to work outside the home, compared to residents in higher-income neighbourhoods, but were not more likely to visit locations such as supermarkets, parks and hospitals. Finally, we found that state orders were only associated with small increases in staying home in low-income neighbourhoods. Our findings indicate that people in lower-income neighbourhoods have faced barriers to physical distancing, particularly needing to work outside the home, and that state physical distancing policies have not mitigated these disparities.

Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burden at national and sub-national scales in Colombia.

The robust estimate and forecast capability of random forests (RF) has been widely recognized, however this ensemble machine learning method has not been widely used in mosquito-borne disease forecasting. In this study, two sets of RF models were developed at the national (pooled department-level data) and department level in Colombia to predict weekly dengue cases for 12-weeks ahead. A pooled national model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was also developed and used as a comparator to the RF models. The various predictors included historic dengue cases, satellite-derived estimates for vegetation, precipitation, and air temperature, as well as population counts, income inequality, and education. Our RF model trained on the pooled national data was more accurate for department-specific weekly dengue cases estimation compared to a local model trained only on the department's data. Additionally, the forecast errors of the national RF model were smaller to those of the national pooled ANN model and were increased with the forecast horizon increasing from one-week-ahead (mean absolute error, MAE: 9.32) to 12-weeks ahead (MAE: 24.56). There was considerable variation in the relative importance of predictors dependent on forecast horizon. The environmental and meteorological predictors were relatively important for short-term dengue forecast horizons while socio-demographic predictors were relevant for longer-term forecast horizons. This study demonstrates the potential of RF in dengue forecasting with a feasible approach of using a national pooled model to forecast at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, including sociodemographic predictors is likely to be helpful in capturing longer-term dengue trends.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of measles outbreaks in Cameroon.

PURPOSE: In 2012, Cameroon experienced a large measles outbreak of over 14,000 cases. To determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of measles transmission in Cameroon, we analyzed weekly case data collected by the Ministry of Health. METHODS: We compared several multivariate time-series models of population movement to characterize the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Using the best model, we evaluated the contribution of population mobility to disease transmission at increasing geographic resolutions: region, department, and health district. RESULTS: Our spatio-temporal analysis showed that the power law model, which accounts for long-distance population movement, best represents the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Population movement between health districts within departments contributed to 7.6% (range: 0.4%-13.4%) of cases at the district level, whereas movement between departments within regions contributed to 16.0% (range: 1.3%-23.2%) of cases. Long-distance movement between regions contributed to 16.7% (range: 0.1%-59.0%) of cases at the region level, 20.1% (range: 7.1%-30.0%) at the department level, and 29.7% (range: 15.3%-47.6%) at the health district level. CONCLUSIONS: Population long-distance mobility is an important driver of measles dynamics in Cameroon. These findings demonstrate the need to improve our understanding of the roles of population mobility and local heterogeneity of vaccination coverage in the spread and control of measles in Cameroon.

Discussions of miscarriage and preterm births on Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Experiences typically considered private, such as, miscarriages and preterm births are being discussed publicly on social media and Internet discussion websites. These data can provide timely illustrations of how individuals discuss miscarriages and preterm births, as well as insights into the wellbeing of women who have experienced a miscarriage. OBJECTIVES: To characterise how users discuss the topic of miscarriage and preterm births on Twitter, analyse trends and drivers, and describe the perceived emotional state of women who have experienced a miscarriage. METHODS: We obtained 291 443 Twitter postings on miscarriages and preterm births from January 2017 through December 2018. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was used to identify major topics of discussion. We applied time series decomposition methods to assess temporal trends and identify major drivers of discussion. Furthermore, four coders labelled the emotional content of 7282 personal miscarriage disclosure tweets into the following non-mutually exclusive categories: grief/sadness/depression, anger, relief, isolation, annoyance, and neutral. RESULTS: Topics in our data fell into eight groups: celebrity disclosures, Michelle Obama's disclosure, politics, healthcare, preterm births, loss and anxiety, flu vaccine and ectopic pregnancies. Political discussions around miscarriages were largely due to a misunderstanding between abortions and miscarriages. Grief and annoyance were the most commonly expressed emotions within the miscarriage self-disclosures; 50.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 49.1, 52.2) and 16.2% (95% CI 15.2, 17.3). Postings increased with celebrity disclosures, pharmacists' refusal of prescribed medications and outrage over the high rate of preterm births in the United States. Miscarriage disclosures by celebrities also led to disclosures by women who had similar experiences. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that increase in discussions of miscarriage on social media are associated with several factors, including celebrity disclosures. Additionally, there is a misunderstanding of the potential physical, emotional and psychological impacts on individuals who lose a pregnancy due to a miscarriage.

Social media captures demographic and regional physical activity.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the use of data from social media for surveillance of physical activity prevalence in the USA. METHODS: We obtained data from the social media site Twitter from April 2015 to March 2016. The data consisted of 1 382 284 geotagged physical activity tweets from 481 146 users (55.7% men and 44.3% women) in more than 2900 counties. We applied machine learning and statistical modelling to demonstrate sex and regional variations in preferred exercises, and assessed the association between reports of physical activity on Twitter and population-level inactivity prevalence from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: The association between physical inactivity tweet patterns and physical activity prevalence varied by sex and region. Walking was the most popular physical activity for both men and women across all regions (15.94% (95% CI 15.85% to 16.02%) and 18.74% (95% CI 18.64% to 18.88%) of tweets, respectively). Men and women mentioned performing gym-based activities at approximately the same rates (4.68% (95% CI 4.63% to 4.72%) and 4.13% (95% CI 4.08% to 4.18%) of tweets, respectively). CrossFit was most popular among men (14.91% (95% CI 14.52% to 15.31%)) among gym-based tweets, whereas yoga was most popular among women (26.66% (95% CI 26.03% to 27.19%)). Men mentioned engaging in higher intensity activities than women. Overall, counties with higher physical activity tweets also had lower leisure-time physical inactivity prevalence for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The regional-specific and sex-specific activity patterns captured on Twitter may allow public health officials to identify changes in health behaviours at small geographical scales and to design interventions best suited for specific populations.