Novel electrocardiographic classification for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing cardioversion.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal conduction, structure and function of the atrial myocardium predispose to atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke. Usefulness of electrocardiographic (ECG) indices in predicting stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) in patients undergoing cardioversion for AF remains unknown, especially in those at low estimated risk. OBJECTIVE: To systematically evaluate the performance of various P-wave abnormalities (PWA) in predicting SSE 30 days after cardioversion (derivation cohort) and in the long-term (validation cohort). METHODS: ECGs (n=1773) of AF patients undergoing an acute cardioversion were manually reviewed. The 30-day post-cardioversion data was used to derive a composite PWA variable. The ECG findings were validated using the long-term follow-up of patients with no anticoagulation. ECGs of 27 CAREBANK study patients with right atrial appendage biopsies were further analyzed for histopathological validation. RESULTS: During data derivation, the best performance was found using a combination of prolonged P-wave (≥180ms), deflected P-wave morphology in lead II, biphasic P-waves in inferior leads or increased P-terminal force (≥80mm*ms) as markers for extensive PWA. In the validation cohort 219/874 (25.1%) had extensive PWA. During a median follow-up of 4.9 years, there were 51 (5.8%) SSE in total. In a competing risk model PWA predicted SSE (aHR 2.1 per category, 95%CI 1.4-3.1, p<0.001). Area under the curve for SSE at 3 years were 0.77, 0.79 and 0.86 for PWA, CHA2DS2-VASc score or their combination, respectively. Histologically, extensive PWA was associated with interstitial fibrosis (p=0.033). CONCLUSION: Novel electrocardiographic PWA classification provided additional prognostic insight in AF patients.

Fibrillatory wave amplitude and thromboembolic risk in non-anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) is well established for patients at elevated stroke risk, but less clear for those at intermediate risk. We investigated whether analysis of electrocardiogram (ECG) derived fibrillatory waves (F-waves) could help identify patients at risk for stroke and systemic embolism (SSE). METHODS: The Finnish Cardioversion (FinCV) study included patients not on permanent anticoagulation therapy who underwent cardioversion for an acute AF episode. We identified 739 individuals with a valid ECG and complete follow-up data. The maximum amplitudes of the F-waves in leads II and V1 were manually measured from the pre-procedure ECG. Patients were categorized into fine and coarse F-wave groups. The optimal lead and amplitude threshold for grouping were found in an events per person-years analysis. SSE were identified from the patient medical records until either anticoagulation was prescribed, AF was deemed chronic, the patient had deceased, or the end of follow-up. RESULTS: Overall 37 (5.0%) patients suffered SSE during the median follow-up time of 5.4 years (1.9-10.8). Measured from lead V1 the SSE rates per 100 person-years were 1.5 and 0.7 in fine and coarse F-wave groups, respectively. Fine F-waves were observed in 112 (15.2%). Baseline characteristics were similar between the groups. Fine F-wave predicted SSE in a competing risk analysis (SHR 2.34, 95%CI 1.12-4.87, p = .023). Analyses from lead II did not provide significant results. CONCLUSION: Electrocardiographic F-wave amplitude may provide additional information on stroke risk in patients with paroxysmal AF and borderline indications or contraindications for anticoagulation.

Frequency of cardioversions as an additional risk factor for stroke in atrial fibrillation - the FinCV-4 study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are selected for oral anticoagulation based on individual patient characteristics. There is little information on how clinical AF burden associates with the risk of ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism (SSE). The aim of this study was to explore the association of the frequency of cardioversions (CV) as a measure of clinical AF burden on the long-term SSE risk, with a focus on patients at intermediate stroke risk based on CHA2DS2-VASc score. For these patients, additional SSE risk stratification by assessing CV frequency may aid in the decision on whether to initiate oral anticoagulation. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of FinCV Study from years 2003-2010 included 2074 patients who were not using any oral anticoagulation (long term or temporary) after CVs and undergoing a total of 6534 CVs for AF from emergency departments of three hospitals. Two study groups were formed: high CV frequency (mean interval between CVs ≤12 months and low frequency (>12 months). RESULTS: A total of 107 SSEs occurred during a mean follow-up of 5.4 years. The event rates per 100 patient-years were 1.82 and 0.67 in high versus low CV frequency groups, respectively. After adjustment for CHA2DS2-VASc score, CV frequency independently predicted SSE (HR, 2.87 [95% CI, 1.47 to 5.64]; p = .002) at 3 years. Competing risk analysis also identified CV frequency (sHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.38-5.31]; p = .004) as an independent predictor for SSE. In patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score 1 and low CV frequency, the SSE risk was only 0.08 per 100 patient-years. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of CVs for symptomatic AF episodes provides additional information on stroke risk in AF patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score 1.Key messagesThis retrospective study offers a unique opportunity to observe the natural course of AF patients with infrequent episodes of clinical arrhythmia when they were not using OAC (before introduction of CHA2DS2-VASc score).Stroke or systemic embolism rate was very low (0.08 per 100 patient-years) in patients with one CHA2DS2-VASc point who visited the emergency room for cardioversion less than once a year.Frequency of cardioversions can be used for additional risk stratification in patients at intermediate risk of stroke based on CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Advanced interatrial block predicts ineffective cardioversion of atrial fibrillation: a FinCV2 cohort study.

AIMS: Rhythm control using electrical cardioversion (CV) is a common treatment strategy for patients with symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF). To guide clinical decision making, we sought to assess if electrocardiographic interatrial blocks could predict CV failure or AF recurrence as the phenomenon is strongly associated with atrial arrhythmias. METHODS: This study included 715 patients who underwent a CV for persistent AF lasting >48 h. P-wave duration and morphology were analyzed in post-procedure or the most recent sinus rhythm electrocardiograms and compared with rates of CV failure and AF recurrence within 30 days after CV as well as their combination (ineffective CV). RESULTS: CV was unsuccessful in 63 out of 715 patients (8.8%) and AF recurred in 209 out of 652 (29.2%) patients within 30 days after CV. Overall, 272 (38.0%) CVs turned out ineffective. Advanced interatrial block (AIAB) defined as P-wave duration ≥120 ms and biphasic morphology in inferior leads (II, III and aVF) was diagnosed in 72 (10.1%) cases. AIAB was an independent predictor for CV failure (OR 4.51, 95%CI 1.76-11.56, p = .002), AF recurrence (OR 2.93, 95%CI 1.43-5.99, p = .003) and ineffective CV (OR 3.87, 95%CI 2.04-7.36, p < .001). CONCLUSION: AIAB predicted CV failure, AF recurrence as well as their composite. This study presents an easy electrocardiographic tool for the identification of patients with persistent AF who might not benefit from an elective CV in the future.KEY MESSAGESInteratrial blocks are very common in patients with atrial fibrillation.Advanced interatrial block predicts ineffective cardioversion.

Minor troponin T elevation and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation presenting to the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the association of minor troponin elevation in unselected patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) presenting to the emergency department (ED) with adverse events. In this study, we sought to assess the early and mid-term mortality of these patients. METHODS: In this observational study, 2911 patients with AF were admitted to the ED. They were divided into 3 groups based on peak high-sensitivity troponin (TnT) levels: normal (<15 ng/L), 15-50 ng/L and 51-100 ng/L. The primary outcomes of this study were all-cause mortality at 30 days and 1 year. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was 6.7% (n = 196) at 30 days and 22.2% (n = 646) at 1 year. Mortality rate increased along with increasing levels of TnT irrespective of baseline covariates, primary discharge diagnosis and type of AF. A significant association between TnT levels and all-cause mortality was observed. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) at 30 days was 6.02 (95% CI 2.62-13.83) for TnT 15-50 ng/L and 11.28 (95% CI 4.87-26.12) for TnT 51-100 ng/L (P<.001 for both) compared to TnT <15 ng/L. At 1 year, the adjusted HRs were 3.08 (95% CI 2.15-4.40) and 5.07 (95% CI 3.49-7.35), respectively (P < .001). When patients with TnT <15 ng/L were divided into two groups at the median value, TnT elevation of 10 to 14 ng/L was also associated with increased 1-year mortality (HR 2.51; 95% CI 1.09-5.74; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with AF admitted to the ED, increased TnT levels were associated with increased early and mid-term all-cause mortality irrespective of baseline covariates and type of AF.

Inadequate oral anticoagulation with warfarin in women with cerebrovascular event and history of atrial fibrillation: the FibStroke study.

BACKGROUND: Women with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be treated less actively with oral anticoagulation (OAC) than men. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We assessed sex differences in the implementation of stroke risk stratification with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores and reasons not to use OAC in 1747 AF patients suffering their first cerebrovascular event after the AF diagnosis. RESULTS: Women were older and had more often a high stroke risk (CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2) than men (p < .001). On admission, 46.4% of women and 48.2% of men were on OAC with no sex difference (p = .437). However, of patients without OAC, 74.4% of women and 49.5% of men should have been on OAC based on CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 (p < .001). Conversely, 34.8% of men and 17.5% of women on OAC had a low or moderate risk (CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc 0-1, p < .001). A valid reason to omit OAC was reported in 38.6% of patients and less often in women (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: OAC was underused in high-risk AF patients, particularly women, but prescribed often in men with low or moderate stroke risk. Reasons for omitting OAC treatment were poorly reported, particularly for women. KEY MESSAGE Women were at higher stroke risk, but were less often treated with oral anticoagulation (OAC). Men were more often on OAC at low or moderate stroke risk. Reasons for omitting guideline based OAC were poorly reported, particularly for women.

Etiology of Minor Troponin Elevations in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation at Emergency Department-Tropo-AF Study.

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) presenting to the emergency department (ED) often have elevated cardiac troponin T (TnT) levels without evidence of type 1 myocardial infarction. We sought to explore the causes and significance of minor TnT elevations in patients with AF at the ED. All patients with AF admitted to the ED of Turku University Hospital between 1 March, 2013 and 11 April, 2016, and at least two TnT measurements, were screened. Overall, 2911 patients with a maximum TnT of 100 ng/L during hospitalization were analyzed. TnT was between 15 and 100 ng/L in 2116 patients. The most common primary discharge diagnoses in this group were AF (18.1%), infection (18.3%), ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (10.7%), and heart failure (5.0%). Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) was equally uncommon both in patients with normal TnT and elevated TnT (4.4% vs. 4.5%). Age ≥75 years, low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), high C-reactive protein (CRP), and hemoglobin <10.0 g/dL, were the most important predictors of elevated TnT. Importantly, TnT elevation was a very frequent (>93%) finding in elderly (≥75 years) AF patients with either low eGFR or high CRP. In conclusion, minor TnT elevations carry limited diagnostic value in elderly AF patients with comorbidities.

Distribution of ischemic strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation: The FibStroke Study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the relative frequency of affected cerebrovascular territories in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) suffering an ischemic stroke. METHODS: Altogether, 1,976 patients who suffered their first-ever ischemic stroke during 2003-2012 and were diagnosed with AF either before or within 30 days after the event were included in this retrospective multicenter cohort study. Strokes were classified radiographically to be located either within the anterior or the posterior cerebrovascular territory, and the effect of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, oral anticoagulant (OAC) use, and timing of AF diagnosis on lesion localization was determined. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 78.4 (interquartile range: 71.7-84.2) years, 1,137 (57.5%) of them were women, their mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.5 (95% confidence interval: 3.4-3.5), 656 (33.2%) were receiving OAC drugs, and altogether, 1,450 (73%) had a previous AF diagnosis. The localization of ischemic lesions between the anterior and the posterior cerebrovascular territories was not affected by the timing of AF diagnosis (p = 0.46), use of OACs (p = 0.70), or the CHA2DS2-VASc score (p = 0.10). Within the anterior territory, altogether 774 strokes (53.2%) were located in the left hemisphere and 3 (0.2%) were bilateral. The timing of AF diagnosis (p = 0.84), use of OACs (p = 0.90), or the CHA2DS2-VASc score (p = 0.21) did not affect the location of the ischemic lesion between the hemispheres. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of AF diagnosis, use of OAC drugs, or the CHA2DS2-VASc score did not affect the distribution of ischemic strokes. Anterior territory strokes were slightly more often located within the left hemisphere.

Traumatic and spontaneous intracranial hemorrhage in atrial fibrillation patients on warfarin.

BACKGROUND: Intracranial hemorrhage is the most devastating complication in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving oral anticoagulation (OAC). It can be either spontaneous or caused by head trauma. We sought to address the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and prognosis of traumatic and spontaneous intracranial hemorrhages in AF patients on OAC. METHODS: Multicenter FibStroke registry of 5,629 patients identified 592 intracranial hemorrhages during warfarin treatment between 2003 and 2012. RESULTS: A large proportion (40%) of intracranial hemorrhages were traumatic. Of these, 64% were subdural hemorrhages (SDHs) and 20% intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs). With respect to the spontaneous hemorrhages, 25% were SDHs and 67% ICHs. Patients with traumatic hemorrhage were older (81 vs 78 years, p = 0.01) and more often had congestive heart failure (30% vs 16%, p < 0.01) and anemia (7% vs 3%, p = 0.03) compared to patients with spontaneous hemorrhage. Admission international normalized ratio (INR) values (2.7 vs 2.7, p = 0.79), as well as CHA2DS2-VASc (median 4 vs 4, p = 0.08) and HAS-BLED (median 2 vs 2, p = 0.05) scores, were similar between the groups. The 30-day mortality after traumatic hemorrhage was significantly lower than after spontaneous hemorrhage (25% vs 36%, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of intracranial hemorrhages in anticoagulated AF patients were traumatic. Traumatic hemorrhages were predominantly SDHs and less often fatal when compared to spontaneous hemorrhages, which were mainly ICHs. Admission INR values as well as CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores were similar in patients with spontaneous and traumatic intracranial hemorrhage. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02146040.

Optimal timing for cardioversion in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Electrical cardioversion (CV) is essential in rhythm management of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, optimal timing of CV remains unknown. HYPOTHESIS: Timing of CV in AF is associated with risk of adverse events. METHODS: We analyzed the effect of AF episode duration on safety and efficacy of electrical CV in a multicenter, multicohort study exploring 4356 CVs in 2530 patients on oral anticoagulation. The composite adverse outcome included unsuccessful CV, acute arrhythmic complications, thromboembolic events, mortality, and AF recurrence within 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: Study groups were stratified according to duration of index AF episode (<24 h, 24-48 h, 48 h-30d, and > 30d), consisting of 1767, 516, 632, and 1441 CVs, respectively. CVs were unsuccessful in 8.5% (<24 h), 5.4% (24-48 h), 11.1% (48 h-30d), and 13.9% (>30d), respectively (P < 0.01). Occurrence of thromboembolic events (0.1%), mortality (0.1%), and asystole >5 seconds (0.7%) within 30-day follow-up was infrequent and comparable in the study groups. AF recurrence within 30 days after initially successful CVs was 29.8% (<24 h), 26.5% (24-48 h), 37.3% (48 h-30d), and 30.3% (>30d), respectively (P < 0.01). Composite adverse outcome occurred in 1669 (38.4%) CVs, and index AF episode >48 hours was an independent predictor for the composite endpoint (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.28-1.74, P < 0.01) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal timing of CV for AF showed a J-shaped curve, with fewest adverse outcomes in patients with CV performed 24 to 48 hours after onset of AF. In patients with rhythm-control strategy, delaying CV >48 hours is associated with increased risk for adverse outcomes.

How do anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients who suffer ischemic stroke or spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage differ?

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases risk of ischemic stroke, and oral anticoagulation (OAC) increases risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). This study aimed to compare OAC-treated AF patients with an ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) or spontaneous ICH as their first lifetime cerebrovascular event, especially focusing on patients with therapeutic international normalized ratio (INR). HYPOTHESIS: We assumed that in AF patients suffering ischemic stroke/TIA or ICH, patient characteristics could be different in patients with therapeutic INR than in patients with warfarin. METHODS: FibStroke is a multicenter, retrospective registry collating details of AF patients with ischemic stroke/TIA or intracranial hemorrhage in 2003-2012. This substudy included AF patients on OAC with first lifetime ischemic stroke/TIA or spontaneous ICH. RESULTS: A total of 1457 patients with 1290 ischemic strokes/TIAs and 167 ICHs were identified. Of these, 553 (42.9%) strokes/TIAs and 96 (57.5%) ICHs occurred in patients with INR within therapeutic range. During OAC with therapeutic INR, congestive heart failure (odds ratio [OR]: 2.33, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-4.58) and hypercholesterolemia (OR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.51-4.19) were more common in patients with ischemic stroke/TIA, whereas a history of bleeding (OR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.11-0.82) was less common when compared with patients with ICH. In the whole cohort, renal impairment (OR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.23-2.80) and mechanical valve prosthesis (OR: 4.41, 95% CI: 1.32-14.7) were overrepresented in patients with stroke/TIA, whereas aspirin use (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.30-0.91) and high INR (OR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.33-0.48) were overrepresented in patients with ICH. CONCLUSIONS: In anticoagulated AF patients with therapeutic INR and first lifetime cerebrovascular event, congestive heart failure and hypercholesterolemia were associated with ischemic stroke/TIA and history of bleeding with ICH.

Usefulness of the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED Scores in Predicting the Risk of Stroke Versus Intracranial Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (from the FibStroke Study).

CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores stratify the risk of thromboembolic and bleeding events respectively in patients with atrial fibrillation. There is only little information on how they differentiate which of the 2 clinically most important complications (ischemic stroke [IS] or an intracranial bleeding [IB]) the patient is more prone to suffer. We evaluated both scores in patients with either of these major complications. The FibStroke Study collected data on all patients with atrial fibrillation with either an IS or an IB event between 2003 and 2012 in 4 Finnish hospital districts. Individual electronic patient records were manually reviewed to collect the study data. To assess the relative risk of IS and IB, an IS/IB-ratio was calculated by dividing the absolute number of ISs with the absolute number of IBs within each score category. A total of 3,816 (82.7%) ISs and 798 (17.3%) IBs were detected in 3,909 patients. In general, ISs occurred more often than IBs in patients on oral anticoagulation in each score category (ratio 1.6 to 5.1). The ratio decreased below 1, however, only with very high HAS-BLED scores (>4). Moreover, 221 ISs and 53 IBs occurred in patients with HAS-BLED > CHA2DS2-VASc, of whom only 19.7% were on anticoagulation. In conclusion, IS was the predominant intracranial event irrespective of CHA2DS2-VASc score, HAS-BLED score ≤4, or use of oral anticoagulation, also in patients with low estimated thromboembolic risk (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 to 1). Furthermore, the HAS-BLED score predicted the excess of IBs over ISs only at very high-risk levels.

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of severe warfarin overanticoagulation: from the EWA study.

INTRODUCTION: Severe warfarin overanticoagulation is a risk factor for bleeding, but there is little information on its manifestations, prognosis and factors affecting the outcome. We describe the manifestations and clinical outcomes of severe warfarin overanticoagulation in a large group of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). MATERIAL AND METHODS: All international normalized ratio (INR) samples (n = 961,431) in the Turku University Hospital region between 2003 and 2015 were screened. A total of 412 AF patients with INR ≥9 were compared to 405 patients with stable warfarin anticoagulation for AF. Electronic patient records were manually reviewed to collect comprehensive data. RESULTS: Of the 412 patients with INR ≥9, bleeding was the primary manifestation in 105 (25.5%). Non-bleeding symptoms were recorded in 165 (40.0%) patients and 142 (34.5%) had no symptoms. A total of 17 (16.2%) patients with a bleed and 67 (21.8%) without bleeding died within 30 days after the event. Intracranial haemorrhage strongly predicted death within 30 days. Other significant predictors were non-bleeding symptoms, active malignancies, recent bleed, history of myocardial infarction, older age, renal dysfunction and a recent treatment episode. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeds are not the major determinant of the poor prognosis in severe overanticoagulation, as coincidental INR ≥9 findings also associate with high mortality. KEY MESSAGES Only a quarter of AF patients with INR ≥9 suffered a bleeding event and the clinical manifestation of INR ≥9 had a significant impact on patient outcome. The 30-day mortality rate in patients with INR ≥9 was high ranging from 9.2 to 32.7%. Several significant predictors of 30-day mortality after INR ≥9 were identified.

Intensity of anticoagulation and risk of thromboembolism after elective cardioversion of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Elective cardioversion (ECV) for atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a relatively low risk of thromboembolic complications. However, the optimal intensity of anticoagulation for ECV is unknown. We sought to assess the risk of thromboembolism in low (INR 2.0-2.4) vs. high (INR≥2.5) therapeutic range in a large retrospective cohort study. METHODS: This multi-centre "real world" study included 1424 ECVs in 1021 patients. The primary outcome was a stroke or a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or a systemic embolus during the 30-day follow-up after ECV. RESULTS: Altogether 4 (0.3%) strokes, 2 (0.1%) TIAs and 2 (0.1%) bleeds were detected during the 30-day follow-up after ECV. No systemic emboli were detected. There were 2 deaths (0.1%), one associated with a stroke. Median time to stroke/TIA was 4 (IQR 9.5) days and the median CHA2DS2-VASc-score was 2 (IQR 1.25) among patients with thromboembolic events. Mean INR at ECV was 2.7 (SD 0.54) in the study cohort. Patients with INR 2.0-2.4 at ECV had more thromboembolic events compared with patients with INR≥2.5 (5/529 (0.9%) vs. 1/895 (0.1%), p=0.03). Comprehensive postprocedural INR data was available for 733 (71.8%) patients and 1007 cardioversions. At least one subtherapeutic (<2.0) INR value was detected within 21days after 230 (22.8%) ECVs and this drop in INR level was associated with a higher risk for thromboembolic events compared with continuous therapeutic post-cardioversion anticoagulation (1.7% vs 0.3%, p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the intensity of periprocedural anticoagulation is associated with the risk of thromboembolic events after ECV.

Incidence and predictors of excessive warfarin anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation-The EWA study.

Vitamin K antagonist warfarin is widely used in clinical practice and excessive anticoagulation is a well-known complication of this therapy. Little is known about permanent and temporary predictors for severe overanticoagulation. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence and predicting factors for episodes with very high (≥9) international normalized ratio (INR) values in warfarin treated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Excessive Warfarin Anticoagulation (EWA) study screened all patients (n = 13618) in the Turku University Hospital region with an INR ≥2 between years 2003-2015. Patients using warfarin anticoagulation for AF with very high (≥9) INR values (EWA Group) were identified (n = 412 patients) and their characteristics were compared to a control group (n = 405) of AF patients with stable INR during long-term follow-up. Over 20% (n = 92) of the EWA patients had more than one event of very high INR and in 105 (25.5%) patients EWA led to a bleeding event. Of the several temporary and permanent EWA risk factors observed, strongest were excessive alcohol consumption in 9.6% of patients (OR 24.4, 95% CI 9.9-50.4, p<0.0001) and reduced renal function (OR 15.2, 95% CI 5.67-40.7, p<0.0001). Recent antibiotic or antifungal medication, recent hospitalization or outpatient clinic visit and the first 6 months of warfarin use were the most significant temporary risk factors for EWA. Excessive warfarin anticoagulation can be predicted with several permanent and temporary clinical risk factors, many of which are modifiable.

Prediction of ineffective elective cardioversion of atrial fibrillation: a retrospective multi-center patient cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elective cardioversion (ECV) of atrial fibrillation (AF) is a standard procedure to restore sinus rhythm. However, predictors for ineffective ECV (failure of ECV or recurrence of AF within 30 days) are unknown. METHODS: We investigated 1998 ECVs performed for AF lasting >48 h in 1,342 patients in a retrospective multi-center study. Follow-up data were collected from 30 days after ECV. RESULTS: Median number of cardioversions was one per patient with a range of 1-10. Altogether 303/1998 (15.2%) ECVs failed. Long (>5 years) AF history and over 30 days duration of the index AF episode were independent predictors for ECV failure and low (<60/min) ventricular rate of AF predicted success of ECV. In patients with successful ECVs an early recurrence of AF was detected in 549 (32.4%) cases. Female gender, high (>60/min) ventricular rate, renal failure and antiarrhythmic agents at discharge were the independent predictors for recurrence. In total ECV was ineffective in 852 (42.6%) cases. Female gender (OR 1.44, CI95% 1.15-1.80, p < 0.01), young (<65 years) age (OR 1.31, CI95% 1.07-1.62, p = 0.01), ventricular rate >60/min (OR 1.92, CI95% 1.08-3.41, p = 0.03), antiarrhythmic medication at discharge (OR 1.48, CI95% 1.14-1.93, p < 0.01) and low (<60/ml/min) estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR 1.59, CI95% 1.08-2.33, p = 0.02) were predictors of ineffective ECV. CONCLUSIONS: Female gender, use of antiarrhythmic drug therapy and renal failure predicted both recurrence of AF and the composite end point. For the first time in a large real-life study several clinical predictors for clinically ineffective ECV were identified.

Sex, age, and time to cardioversion. Risk factors for cardioversion of acute atrial fibrillation from the FinCV study.

BACKGROUND: Female sex, old age, and time to cardioversion increase the risk of thromboembolic complications (TEC) after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation (AF) < 48 h. The interaction of these variables is not known. We investigated the interaction of sex, age, and time to electrical cardioversion (ECV) on TEC in anticoagulant-naive patients with acute AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: The primary outcome was a TEC within 30 days following ECV. Patients were divided into three age groups and time to cardioversion into <12 h and ≥12 h in 4715 ECVs. TEC occurred in 40 (0.8%) patients. In multivariate analysis, female sex, time to ECV, and vascular disease were independent predictors of TEC. For patients ≤75 cardioverted within 12 h, the incidence of TEC was low. In patients >75 TEC increased in both sexes and particularly in women (1.4% vs. 0.9%, p = 0.03). When ECVs exceeded 12 h, the risk of TEC was two- to four-fold higher in women in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of TEC increases substantially in patients >75 and ECVs ≥12 h, particularly in women. Time to cardioversion should be added to risk-stratification of ECVs of acute AF. Key messages The ideal timing of cardioversion is still unknown and not based on solid evidence. Delay to cardioversion ≥12 h should be added to the risk stratification of atrial fibrillation cardioversion. Female sex increases the risk of complications and failure of cardioversion after electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation <48 h, especially with age >75 years and time to cardioversion exceeding 12 h.

Mortality after stroke in patients with paroxysmal and chronic atrial fibrillation - The FibStroke study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported that patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) have lower risk of thromboembolism and better prognosis than patients with chronic AF. We sought to address the differences in ischaemic events in patients with paroxysmal AF and chronic AF. METHODS: The FibStroke study is a cross-sectional observational multicenter registry that included AF patients with an ischaemic stroke, TIA (transient ischaemic attack) or intracranial bleed during 2003-2012 identified from discharge registries of four Finnish hospitals. Altogether 1448 patients with paroxysmal and 1808 patients with chronic atrial fibrillation suffered a total of 707 TIA-episodes and 2549 ischaemic strokes. RESULTS: Mortality within 30days after the index event was significantly lower in patients with paroxysmal AF than with chronic AF (7.6% vs 16.9%, p<0.01). At the onset of event, 62.8% of the patients with paroxysmal AF were in sinus rhythm, and these patients had better prognosis after the event compared to patients with other rhythm than sinus rhythm (mortality 5.2% vs 15.7%, p<0.01). In the propensity score matched analysis mortality after stroke was significantly lower in patients with paroxysmal AF than in patients with chronic AF (11.6% vs 17.8%, p<0.01), while mortality after TIA was also lower, but did not reach statistical significance (0.4% vs 1.7%, p=0.31). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of strokes in AF patients occur in patients with paroxysmal AF, but they have better prognosis than patients with chronic AF. The prognosis is also significantly better in patients who are in sinus rhythm at the onset of event.