Two Nigerian States (Plateau and Nasarawa) Have Eliminated Transmission of Human Onchocerciasis-A Report of Post-Ivermectin Mass Drug Administration Surveillance.

Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus (causing "river blindness") was interrupted in two states of Nigeria (Plateau and Nasarawa) in 2017 in accordance with 2016 WHO guidelines. Ivermectin mass drug administration was halted in January 2018, and posttreatment surveillance activities were conducted over a 3-year period. Vector Simulium damnosum s.l. flies were collected during the 2019 (39 sites) and 2020 (42 sites) transmission seasons. Head pools were tested by polymerase chain reaction for the presence of third-stage O. volvulus larvae; 15,585 flies were all negative, demonstrating an infective rate of < 1/2,000 with 95% confidence. In 2021, the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Health declared the two-state area as having eliminated transmission. Plateau and Nasarawa states are the first of 30 endemic states in Nigeria to have met the WHO criteria for onchocerciasis elimination. Post-elimination surveillance will need to continue given the risk of reintroduction of transmission from neighboring states.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery.

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

Post-Treatment Surveillance for Lymphatic Filariasis in Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria: Results of Transmission Assessment Surveys.

Following the halt of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF), the WHO recommends at least 4 years of post-treatment surveillance (PTS) to confirm that transmission recrudescence or importation does not occur. The primary means of evaluation during PTS is repeated transmission assessment surveys (TASs) conducted at 2- to 3-year intervals after TAS-1 stop-MDA surveys. This study reports the results of TAS-2 and TAS-3 surveys in Plateau and Nasarawa states (pop. 6.9 million) of Nigeria divided into a minimum of seven evaluation units (EUs) per TAS. A total of 26,536 first- and second-year primary school children (approximately 6-7 years old) were tested for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) between 2014 and 2017. Of 12,313 children tested in TAS-2 surveys, only five (0.04%) were CFA positive, with no more than two positive samples from any one EU, which was below the critical value of 20 per EU. Of 14,240 children tested in TAS-3 surveys, none (0%) were CFA positive. These results indicate that LF transmission remains below sustainable transmission levels and suggest that elimination of transmission has been achieved in Plateau and Nasarawa, Nigeria.

Community-wide distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets can halt transmission of lymphatic filariasis in southeastern Nigeria.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) in rural southeastern Nigeria is transmitted mainly by Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Potential coinfection with Loa loa in this area has prevented use of ivermectin in the mass drug administration (MDA) strategy for LF elimination because of potential severe adverse L. loa-related reactions. This study determined if long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) distribution programs for malaria would interrupt LF transmission in such areas, without need for MDA. Monthly entomologic monitoring was conducted in sentinel villages before and after LLIN distribution to all households and all age groups (full coverage) in two districts, and to pregnant women and children less than five years of age in the other two districts. No change in human LF microfilaremia prevalence was observed, but mosquito studies showed a statistically significant decrease in LF infection and infectivity with full-coverage LLIN distribution. We conclude that LF transmission can be halted in southeastern Nigeria by full-coverage LLIN distribution, without MDA.