Alcohol's contribution to climate change and other environmental degradation: a call for research.

Climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humanity. The production, distribution and consumption of many fast-moving consumer goods contribute substantially to climate change, principally through releasing greenhouse gas emissions. Here we consider just some of the ways that alcohol-already a key contributor to an array of health, social and economic burdens-exacerbates environmental harms and climate change. We explore current evidence on alcohol production as a resource- and energy-intensive process, contributing to significant environmental degradation through water usage and other carbon emission costs. We argue that the impacts of alcohol production on climate change have been minimally explored by researchers. Yet the extent of the unfolding catastrophe beholds us to consider all available ways to mitigate unnecessary emissions, including from products such as alcohol. We then turn to suggestions for a research agenda on this topic, including investigations of commercial determinants, inequalities and product advice to help consumers choose lower-carbon options. We conclude by arguing that public health researchers already have an array of methodological expertise and experience that is well placed to produce the evidence needed to inform regulation and efforts by alcohol producers and consumers to minimize their contributions to environmental harms.

Factors influencing public health engagement in alcohol licensing in England and Scotland including legal and structural differences: comparative interview analysis.

Background: Greater availability of alcohol is associated with higher consumption and harms. The legal systems, by which premises are licensed to sell alcohol in England and Scotland, differ in several ways. The 'Exploring the impact of alcohol licensing in England and Scotland' study measured public health team activity regarding alcohol licensing from 2012 to 2019 and identified seven differences between England and Scotland in the timing and type of activities undertaken. Objectives: To qualitatively describe the seven previously identified differences between Scotland and England in public health approaches to alcohol licensing, and to examine, from the perspective of public health professionals, what factors may explain these differences. Methods: Ninety-four interviews were conducted with 52 professionals from 14 English and 6 Scottish public health teams selected for diversity who had been actively engaging with alcohol licensing. Interviews focused primarily on the nature of their engagement (n = 66) and their rationale for the approaches taken (n = 28). Interview data were analysed thematically using NVivo. Findings were constructed by discussion across the research team, to describe and explain the differences in practice found. Findings: Diverse legal, practical and other factors appeared to explain the seven differences. (1) Earlier engagement in licensing by Scottish public health teams in 2012-3 may have arisen from differences in the timing of legislative changes giving public health a statutory role and support from Alcohol Focus Scotland. (2) Public Health England provided significant support from 2014 in England, contributing to an increase in activity from that point. (3) Renewals of statements of licensing policy were required more frequently in Scotland and at the same time for all Licensing Boards, probably explaining greater focus on policy in Scotland. (4) Organisational structures in Scotland, with public health stakeholders spread across several organisations, likely explained greater involvement of senior leaders there. (5) Without a public health objective for licensing, English public health teams felt less confident about making objections to licence applications without other stakeholders such as the police, and instead commonly negotiated conditions on licences with applicants. In contrast, Scottish public health teams felt any direct contact with applicants was inappropriate due to conflicts of interest. (6) With the public health objective in Scotland, public health teams there were more active in making independent objections to licence applications. Further in Scotland, licensing committee meetings are held to consider all new applications regardless of whether objections have been submitted; unlike in England where there was a greater incentive to resolve objections, because then a meeting was not required. (7) Finally, Scottish public health teams involved the public more in licensing process, partly because of statutory licensing forums there. Conclusions: The alcohol premises licensing systems in England and Scotland differ in important ways including and beyond the lack of a public health objective for licensing in England. These and other differences, including support of national and local bodies, have shaped opportunities for, and the nature of, public health engagement. Further research could examine the relative success of the approaches taken by public health teams and how temporary increases in availability are handled in the two licensing systems. Funding: This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Reseacrh programme as award number 15/129/11.

When alcohol becomes more widely available, harms tend to increase. In England and Scotland, this availability is controlled by local councils. They 'licence' shops, bars and other venues to allow them to sell alcohol. Local health teams, including doctors, often advise councils on licensing. In earlier work, we found seven differences in what Scottish and English health teams do on licensing. In this study, we explore these seven differences and why they came about. To do this, we interviewed 94 professionals working in public health across both countries. Scottish health teams got involved in licensing earlier than in England. This was partly because of when certain laws changed. Also, they were helped earlier by national organisations that try to reduce harm from alcohol. Scottish teams were more involved in local policies on licensing. This was probably because these policies changed more often in the Scottish system. Scottish teams involved the public more. This was partly because Scottish councils must set up 'local licensing forums'. Scottish teams also objected more often to licence applications. They generally felt that they could be more actively involved, because of a law in Scotland that says licensing must protect public health. This law does not apply in England. In England, health teams were more likely to talk to businesses that wanted licences. They were less likely to try to block applications. When they agreed changes to applications with businesses instead of objecting, fewer formal licensing meetings were needed. This was not the case in Scotland. Also, Scottish teams did not feel it was okay for them to talk to businesses. In summary, there are important differences in licensing law between Scotland and England. These matter for how health teams in the two countries engage with local councils, businesses and the public on licensing matters.

Public health engagement in alcohol licensing in England and Scotland: the ExILEnS mixed-method, natural experiment evaluation.

Background: International systematic reviews suggest an association between alcohol availability and increased alcohol-related harms. Alcohol availability is regulated through separate locally administered licensing systems in England and Scotland, in which local public health teams have a statutory role. The system in Scotland includes a public health objective for licensing. Public health teams engage to varying degrees in licensing matters but no previous study has sought to objectively characterise and measure their activity, examine their effectiveness, or compare practices between Scotland and England. Aim: To critically assess the impact and mechanisms of impact of public health team engagement in alcohol premises licensing on alcohol-related harms in England and Scotland. Methods: We recruited 39 diverse public health teams in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12). Public health teams more active in licensing were recruited first and then matched to lower-activity public health teams. Using structured interviews (n = 66), documentation analysis, and expert consultation, we developed and applied the Public Health Engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) measure to quantify six-monthly activity levels from 2012 to 2019. Time series of PHIAL scores, and health and crime outcomes for each area, were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models to assess correlations between outcome and exposure, with 18-month average PHIAL score as the primary exposure metric. In-depth interviews (n = 53) and a workshop (n = 10) explored public health team approaches and potential mechanisms of impact of alcohol availability interventions with public health team members and licensing stakeholders (local authority licensing officers, managers and lawyers/clerks, police staff with a licensing remit, local elected representatives). Findings: Nineteen public health team activity types were assessed in six categories: (1) staffing; (2) reviewing and (3) responding to licence applications; (4) data usage; (5) influencing licensing stakeholders/policy; and (6) public involvement. Usage and intensity of activities and overall approaches varied within and between areas over time, including between Scotland and England. The latter variation could be explained by legal, structural and philosophical differences, including Scotland's public health objective. This objective was felt to legitimise public health considerations and the use of public health data within licensing. Quantitative analysis showed no clear evidence of association between level of public health team activity and the health or crime outcomes examined, using the primary exposure or other metrics (neither change in, nor cumulative, PHIAL scores). Qualitative data suggested that public health team input was valued by many licensing stakeholders, and that alcohol availability may lead to harms by affecting the accessibility, visibility and norms of alcohol consumption, but that the licensing systems have limited power to act in the interests of public health. Conclusions: This study provides no evidence that public health team engagement in local licensing matters was associated with measurable downstream reductions in crime or health harms, in the short term, or over a 7-year follow-up period. The extensive qualitative data suggest that public health team engagement is valued and appears to be slowly reorienting the licensing system to better address health (and other) harms, especially in Scotland, but this will take time. A rise in home drinking, alcohol deliveries, and the inherent inability of the licensing system to reduce - or in the case of online sales, to contain - availability, may explain the null findings and will continue to limit the potential of these licensing systems to address alcohol-related harms. Future work: Further analysis could consider the relative success of different public health team approaches in terms of changing alcohol availability and retailing. A key gap relates to the nature and impact of online availability on alcohol consumption, harms and inequalities, alongside development and study of relevant policy options. A national approach to licensing data and oversight would greatly facilitate future studies and public health input to licensing. Limitations: Our interview data and therefore PHIAL scores may be limited by recall bias where documentary evidence of public health activity was not available, and by possible variability in grading of such activity, though steps were taken to minimise both. The analyses would have benefited from additional data on licensing policies and environmental changes that might have affected availability or harms in the study areas. Study registration: The study was registered with the Research Registry (researchregistry6162) on 26 October 2020. The study protocol was published in BMC Medical Research Methodology on 6 November 2018. Funding: This synopsis presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme as award number 15/129/11.

Research finds that when alcohol is more easily available, because more places sell alcohol or have longer opening hours, people tend to drink more and harms tend to increase. In England and Scotland, 'Licensing Committees' in local governments have power over which venues are given a licence to sell alcohol legally. They make decisions based on local policy and on licensing goals set out in law. Licensing laws are slightly different in both nations, and health representatives are often involved in trying to influence local licensing decisions and policies, to reduce alcohol-related harms. We aimed to find out what public health teams have done to influence alcohol licensing and whether their actions have affected alcohol-related harms. We recruited 39 public health teams (Scotland: 12; England: 27) and measured how active they were on licensing matters. We gathered detailed information (from interviews and papers) about their actions from 2012 to 2019, and asked them and others involved in licensing (including police, and local authority licensing teams and lawyers) about how their efforts might make a difference to harms. We gathered local data on alcohol-related health harms and crimes during 2009­19. We analysed whether any changes in these harms were related to the level of public health team activity, and explored differences between Scotland and England. Public health teams across Scotland and England took varied approaches to engaging in alcohol licensing, and their work was often welcomed by others working in the licensing system. However, we found no clear relationship between the level of licensing-related activity that public health teams engaged in and the levels of alcohol-related health harms or crime. This may be because their actions make only a modest difference to licensing decisions, or because it may take longer than the study period for them to have a sizeable impact. Reducing alcohol-related harms through licensing may require strengthening national licensing laws and the powers of public health teams, including by addressing online sales and home deliveries.

Understanding the patient's experience of coeliac disease diagnosis: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease (CD) presents with non-specific symptoms, and delays to diagnosis are common. The traditional diagnostic pathway involves serological testing followed by endoscopic biopsy; however, the evidence is increasing about the effectiveness of a diagnosis without the need for a biopsy. AIM: To understand the patient's experience of being diagnosed with CD. DESIGN AND SETTING: A qualitative study was conducted, which involved semi-structured interviews with adults diagnosed with CD living in the UK. METHOD: Participants (n = 20) were purposefully sampled from 200 adults who had completed a diagnostic confidence survey. Interviews were conducted via video-conferencing software (Zoom), recorded, and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Interviewees faced pre-diagnostic uncertainty, presenting with non-specific symptoms that many experienced for several years and may have normalised. GPs often attributed their symptoms to alternative diagnoses, commonly, irritable bowel syndrome or anaemia. Investigations caused further uncertainty, with half of the interviewees unaware that their initial serology included a test for CD, and reporting long waits for endoscopy and challenges managing their diet around the procedure. Their uncertainty reduced once they received their biopsy results. Endoscopy was presented as the 'gold standard' for diagnosis and most interviewees believed that the procedure was necessary for diagnostic confidence and conviction in a lifelong gluten-free diet. CONCLUSION: Patients experience uncertainty on the pathway to a diagnosis of CD. GPs could improve their experiences by being mindful of the possibility of CD and sharing information about serological testing. Policy and guidance should address the time to endoscopy and diet during diagnosis. If diagnosis without biopsy is adopted, then consideration should be given to clinical pathway implementation and communication approaches to reduce patient uncertainty.

Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research. RESULTS: Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children. CONCLUSIONS: For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

Use of nicotine replacement therapy to reduce children's exposure to second-hand smoke in the home: a qualitative pilot study involving local community pharmacies.

BACKGROUND: In Scotland, and in several other countries, most second-hand smoke exposure now occurs in low-income households, where housing constraints and sole parenting often make it harder to create a smoke-free home. This pilot study provided people who smoke with a free 12-week supply of nicotine replacement therapy through local community pharmacies to reduce smoking indoors. METHODS: Twenty-five parents/caregivers who smoked in the home and cared for children at least weekly were recruited via Facebook during the COVID-19 pandemic. Air quality (PM2.5) was monitored in participant homes for seven days before their first pharmacy visit and 12 weeks later. Qualitative interviews (N = 14) were conducted with 13 participants who completed the study and one who withdrew part-way through. The interviews explored views/experiences of using nicotine replacement therapy to help create a smoke-free home. Another participant took part in a shorter telephone discussion at their request, with detailed notes taken by the interviewer, because of their speech disorder. RESULTS: Three participants reported smoking outdoors only, one of whom subsequently quit smoking. Six participants reported reduced cigarette consumption by 50% in the home, four reported no (sustained) reduction and one reported increased smoking indoors. Self-reported outcomes were not always consistent with PM2.5 readings. Participants' experiences of accessing nicotine replacement therapy through community pharmacies varied. Some suggested ongoing support to use nicotine replacement products could better assist behavioural change, and that access could be streamlined by posting products to the home. Several suggested that focusing on changing home smoking behaviours using nicotine replacement therapy might facilitate a future quit attempt. CONCLUSION: Access to free nicotine replacement therapy for temporary use indoors may support some people who smoke to reduce children's exposure to second-hand smoke. Our findings confirm the need to modify the intervention before undertaking a definitive trial to assess the effectiveness of this approach. This work is now underway.

Experimental and meta-analytic evidence that source variability of misinformation does not increase eyewitness suggestibility independently of repetition of misinformation.

Considerable evidence has shown that repeating the same misinformation increases its influence (i.e., repetition effects). However, very little research has examined whether having multiple witnesses present misinformation relative to one witness (i.e., source variability) increases the influence of misinformation. In two experiments, we orthogonally manipulated repetition and source variability. Experiment 1 used written interview transcripts to deliver misinformation and showed that repetition increased eyewitness suggestibility, but source variability did not. In Experiment 2, we increased source saliency by delivering the misinformation to participants via videos instead of written interviews, such that each witness was visibly and audibly distinct. Despite this stronger manipulation, there was no effect of source variability in Experiment 2. In addition, we reported a meta-analysis (k = 19) for the repeated misinformation effect and a small-scale meta-analysis (k = 8) for the source variability effect. Results from these meta-analyses were consistent with the results of our individual experiments. Altogether, our results suggest that participants respond based on retrieval fluency rather than source-specifying information.

Exposure to secondhand and thirdhand smoke in private vehicles: Measurements in air and dust samples.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate airborne nicotine concentrations and nicotine, cotinine, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs) in settled dust from private cars in Spain and the UK. METHODS: We measured vapor-phase nicotine concentrations in a convenience sample of 45 private cars from Spain (N = 30) and the UK (N = 15) in 2017-2018. We recruited non-smoking drivers (n = 20), smoking drivers who do not smoke inside the car (n = 15), and smoking drivers who smoke inside (n = 10). Nicotine, cotinine, and three TSNAs (NNK, NNN, NNA) were also measured in settled dust in a random subsample (n = 20). We computed medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) of secondhand smoke (SHS) and thirdhand smoke (THS) compounds according to the drivers' profile. RESULTS: 24-h samples yielded median airborne nicotine concentrations below the limit of quantification (LOQ) (IQR:

Knowledge, Beliefs, and Behaviors Related to Secondhand Smoke and Smoking in the Home: A Qualitative Study With Men in Malaysia.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the health risks associated with secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure, smoking in the home is common in Malaysia, and almost exclusively a male behavior. AIMS AND METHODS: This study explored male smokers' knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors related to SHS exposure and smoking in the home, to guide future intervention development. Twenty-four men who smoked and lived in Klang Valley, Kuantan, or Kuala Terengganu took part in semi-structured interviews which explored knowledge and beliefs regarding SHS in the home, and associated home-smoking behaviors. Data were managed and analyzed using the framework approach. RESULTS: There was limited knowledge regarding the health risks associated with SHS: the smell of SHS in the home was a more prominent concern in most cases. Many had no rules in place restricting home smoking, and some suggested that smoking in specific rooms and/or near windows meant SHS was not "shared" with other household members. A few fathers had created but not maintained a smoke-free home prior to and/or after their children were born. Desire to smoke in the home conflicted with men's sense of responsibility as the head of the household to protect others and set a good example for their children. CONCLUSIONS: Men's home-smoking behaviors are shaped by a lack of understanding of the health risks associated with SHS exposure. Gaining a broader understanding of the factors that shape men's decisions to create a smoke-free home is important to facilitate the development of culturally appropriate interventions that address their responsibility to protect other household members from SHS exposure. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings highlight the need for public information campaigns in Malaysia to educate men who smoke regarding the health harms associated with SHS in the home and the ways in which SHS travels and lingers in household air. This is important given men's concerns about SHS often focus on the smell of cigarette smoke in the home. Our findings suggest a number of potential avenues for future intervention development, including household and community-level initiatives that could build on men's sense of responsibility as the head of the household and/or their general desire to protect their families.

Exposure to secondhand aerosol from electronic cigarettes at homes: A real-life study in four European countries.

Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use emits potentially hazardous compounds and deteriorates indoor air quality. Home is a place where e-cigarettes may frequently be used amid its increasing prohibition in public places. This study assessed the real-life scenario of bystanders' exposure to secondhand e-cigarette aerosol (SHA) at home. A one-week observational study was conducted within the TackSHS project in four countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) in 2019 including: 1) homes of e-cigarette users living together with a non-user/non-smoker; and 2) control homes with no smokers nor e-cigarette users. Indoor airborne nicotine, PM2.5, and PM1.0 concentrations were measured as environmental markers of SHA. Biomarkers, including nicotine and its metabolites, tobacco-specific nitrosamines, propanediol, glycerol, and metals were measured in participants' saliva and urine samples. E-cigarette use characteristics, such as e-cigarette refill liquid's nicotine concentration, e-cigarette type, place of e-cigarette use at home, and frequency of ventilation, were also collected. A total of 29 e-cigarette users' homes and 21 control homes were included. The results showed that the seven-day concentrations of airborne nicotine were quantifiable in 21 (72.4 %) out of 29 e-cigarette users' homes; overall, they were quite low (geometric mean: 0.01 µg/m3; 95 % CI: 0.01-0.02 µg/m3) and were all below the limit of quantification in control homes. Seven-day concentrations of PM2.5 and PM1.0 in e-cigarette and control homes were similar. Airborne nicotine and PM concentrations did not differ according to different e-cigarette use characteristics. Non-users residing with e-cigarette users had low but significantly higher levels of cotinine, 3'-OH-cotinine and 1,2-propanediol in saliva, and cobalt in urine than non-users living in control homes. In conclusion, e-cigarette use at home created bystanders' exposure to SHA regardless of the e-cigarette use characteristics. Further studies are warranted to assess the implications of SHA exposure for smoke-free policy.

Second-hand Smoke Exposure Among Home Care Workers (HCWs) in Scotland.

OBJECTIVES: Second-hand tobacco smoke (SHS) is a serious cause of ill-health, and concern around SHS exposure at work has driven legislation in public places. In Scotland, most workers are now protected from SHS at work. However, home care workers (HCWs) may still be exposed, as they enter private homes where smoking is unregulated. In this study, we aimed to understand the extent, duration and intensity of that exposure among HCWs in Lanarkshire, Scotland. METHODS: We surveyed HCWs in four organisations involved in providing care at home: a public healthcare agency (NHS Lanarkshire), two local government entities and a private healthcare company. We also conducted personal exposure monitoring (PEM) of exposure to airborne nicotine and SHS-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with 32 HCWs. RESULTS: The vast majority of HCWs surveyed reported being exposed to SHS at work (395/537, 74%), and 50% of those who reported exposure in the home indicated daily exposure. We conducted PEM over 82 home visits, with 21% (17) demonstrating PM2.5 concentrations in excess of the WHO's 2010 air quality guideline limit for 24 h exposure. Duration of exposure to SHS tended to be short and as a result all nicotine samples were below the limit of quantification. CONCLUSIONS: Most HCWs are exposed to minimal levels of SHS at work. However, a minority may be exposed to concentrations which affect health. Policies to mitigate this exposure should be considered, such as the use of respiratory protective equipment, improved ventilation during visits, and interventions to reduce smoking in homes.

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care. DESIGN: (1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives. DATA SOURCES: For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used. REVIEW METHODS: For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed. RESULTS: People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research. LIMITATIONS: The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia). FUTURE WORK: Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Around 1 in 100 people in the UK has coeliac disease. It develops when the immune system attacks the lining of the gut after eating gluten. It is thought that only one in three people with coeliac disease is currently diagnosed. Without treatment, people with coeliac disease are at an increased risk of anaemia, osteoporosis and cancer. Treatment is a lifelong gluten-free diet. Diagnosing coeliac disease is difficult. Some people have minimal or non-specific symptoms, such as pain, indigestion or bloating, so knowing who to test is tricky. WHAT DID WE DO?: We wanted to establish who should be tested for coeliac disease, what tests should be used and whether or not invasive testing (a gut biopsy) is necessary for everyone. We looked at existing studies and data from general practices, and conducted an online survey, and brought everything together in an economic (cost) analysis. WHAT DID WE FIND?: Using individual symptoms is not helpful to identify people who may have coeliac disease. People with coeliac disease are more likely to have a combination of symptoms. People with anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, thyroid disorders, immunoglobulin A deficiency, Down syndrome, Turner syndrome or a family history of coeliac disease are more likely to have coeliac disease and should be offered tests. Common blood tests for coeliac disease are very accurate, particularly when used in combination with genetic testing. Blood tests alone can be used for diagnosis for some people. Others will need a biopsy to confirm the diagnosis. Whether or not this is needed depends on their risk of coeliac disease: whether or not they have symptoms and whether or not they have a condition that puts them at higher risk. Shared decision-making is important for individuals considering an invasive test, depending on how certain they want to be about their diagnosis before starting a gluten-free diet.

Reasons for Using Roll-Your-Own Tobacco and Perceptions of Health-Promoting Pack Inserts: A Focus Group Study with Roll-Your-Own Tobacco Smokers in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: Use of roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco is increasing in most regions, but few qualitative studies have explored why RYO smokers use this product, and no study has considered their views of health-promoting pack inserts. METHODS: Eight focus groups were conducted with 18-35-year-old RYO smokers (n = 50) in Greater Glasgow (Scotland) in February-March 2020 to explore reasons for using RYO and perceptions of health-promoting inserts. Participants were shown four inserts adapted from those required in cigarette packs in Canada, with all encouraging quitting, and two RYO-specific inserts explaining that RYO is not less harmful than cigarettes. RESULTS: Lower price, better taste, the pleasure of rolling and ability to customize roll-ups, and the belief that RYO was less harmful than cigarettes were drivers for use. There were mixed perceptions of the extent to which inserts would capture attention if included in RYO packs. The positive messaging used on the Canadian inserts was considered motivational and inspirational, and contrasted with the on-pack warnings. The messaging on the RYO inserts, in comparison, was viewed unfavorably and generally dismissed. Participants, most of whom were not interested in quitting, did not feel that inserts would lead them to change their smoking behavior. However, some felt that the Canadian inserts could be helpful for those thinking about quitting and young people contemplating smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Inserts with positive messaging about quitting, rather than messaging explicating the harms of RYO, were preferred by RYO smokers. What, if any, RYO-specific messaging resonates with RYO smokers merits further attention. IMPLICATIONS: Aside from price, taste, and the pleasure associated with rolling and ability to individualize roll-ups, the erroneous belief that RYO is less harmful than cigarettes was a key reason for use. While inserts with positive messaging about quitting, as used on the Canadian inserts, were viewed as potentially helpful, inserts that challenged the idea that RYO was not less harmful than cigarettes were generally dismissed. Research is needed to understand what types of RYO-specific messaging could most effectively be used on inserts, or indeed in other media, to challenge the misperceptions that many RYO smokers hold.

Impact of public health team engagement in alcohol licensing on health and crime outcomes in England and Scotland: A comparative timeseries study between 2012 and 2019.

Background: Public health teams (PHTs) in England and Scotland engage to varying degrees in local alcohol licensing systems to try to reduce alcohol-related harms. No previous quantitative evidence is available on the effectiveness of this engagement. We aimed to quantify the effects of PHT engagement in alcohol licensing on selected health and crime outcomes. Methods: 39 PHTs in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12) were recruited (of 40 contacted) for diversity in licensing engagement level and region, with higher activity areas matched to lower activity areas. Each PHT's engagement in licensing for each 6 month period from April 2012 to March 2019 was quantified using a new measure (PHIAL) developed using structured interviews, documentary analyses, and expert consultation. Outcomes examined were ambulance callouts, alcohol-related hospital admissions, alcohol-related and alcohol-specific mortality and violent, sexual and public order offences. Timeseries were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models. Correlations were assessed between each outcome and 18-month average PHIAL score (primary metric), cumulative PHIAL scores and change in PHIAL scores. Additionally, 6-month lagged correlations were also assessed. Findings: There was no clear evidence of any associations between the primary exposure metric and the public health or crime outcomes examined, nor between cumulative PHIAL scores or change in PHIAL score and any outcomes. There were no significant associations in England or Scotland when analysed separately or between outcomes and lagged exposure metrics. Interpretation: There is no clear evidence that allocating PHT resources to engaging in alcohol licensing is associated with downstream reductions in alcohol-related health harms or crimes, in the short term or over a seven year follow-up period. Such engagement likely has benefits in shaping the licensing system to take account of health issues longer term, but as current systems cannot reduce alcohol availability or contain online sales, their potential benefits are somewhat constrained. Funding: The ExILEnS project is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (project number 15/129/11). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

Measuring secondhand smoke in homes in Malaysia: A feasibility study comparing indoor fine particulate (PM2.5) concentrations following an educational feedback intervention to create smoke-free homes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Extensive regulations have been introduced to reduce secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among non-smokers in Malaysia. However, there is still a need to encourage behavior change of smokers in relation to making homes smoke-free. This feasibility study aimed to use low-cost air pollution monitors to quantify SHS concentrations in Malaysian households and to explore the practicality of using personalized feedback in educating families to make their homes smoke-free. METHODS: A total of 35 smokers in three states in Malaysia were recruited via snowball and convenience sampling methods. Indoor fine particulate (PM2.5) concentrations in participants' homes were measured for 7 days before and after educational intervention using a pre-defined template, which included personalized air-quality feedback, and information on SHS impacts were given. The feedback was delivered over two 20-minute phone calls or in-person sessions following the completion of the air-quality measurements. Data were corrected for outdoor PM2.5 concentrations from the nearest environmental monitor. RESULTS: Despite the challenges in conducting the project during COVID-19 pandemic, the delivery of the intervention was found to be feasible. Twenty-seven (77%) out of 35 participants completed PM2.5 measurements and received a complete intervention. The median (IQR: 25th -75th percentile concentrations) SHS-PM2.5 concentrations at baseline and follow-up were 18.3 µg/m3 (IQR: 13.3-28.3) and 16.2 µg/m3 (IQR: 10.4 - 25.6), respectively. There was a reduction of SHS-PM2.5 concentrations at follow-up measurement in the houses of 17 participants (63%). The change in corrected indoor PM2.5 concentrations between baseline and follow-up was not statistically significant (Z= -1.01, p=0.29). CONCLUSIONS: This educational intervention, combining the use of a low-cost air particle counter with personalized air-quality feedback, was found to be feasible in the Malaysian setting. It has potential to trigger behavior change among smokers, reducing indoor smoking and consequent SHS concentrations, and increasing smoke-free home implementation. A large-scale trial is needed.

FARGO-360: a multi-disciplinary survey of practice and perspectives on provision of care for patients with frailty presenting with gynecological cancers in the UK and Ireland.

OBJECTIVES: Frailty has been associated with worse cancer-related outcomes for people with gynecological cancers. However, the lack of clear guidance on how to assess and modify frailty prior to instigating active treatments has the potential to lead to large variations in practice and outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate current practice and perspectives of healthcare practitioners on the provision of care for patients with frailty and a gynecological cancer. METHODS: Data were collected via a questionnaire-based survey distributed by the Audit and Research in Gynecological Oncology (ARGO) collaborative to healthcare professionals who identified as working with patients with gynecological malignancies in the United Kingdom (UK) or Ireland. Study data were collected using REDCap software hosted at the University of Manchester. Responses were collected over a 16 week period between January and April 2021. RESULTS: A total of 206 healthcare professionals (30 anesthetists (14.6%), 30 pre-operative nurses (14.6%), 51 surgeons (24.8%), 34 cancer specialist nurses (16.5%), 21 medical/clinical oncologists (10.2%), 25 physiotherapists/occupational therapists (12.1%) and 15 dieticians (7.3%)) completed the survey. The respondents worked at 19 hospital trusts across the UK and Ireland. Frailty scoring was not routinely performed in 63% of care settings, yet the majority of practitioners reported modifying their practice when providing and deciding on care for patients with frailty. Only 16% of organizations surveyed had a dedicated pathway for assessment and management of patients with frailty. A total of 37% of respondents reported access to prehabilitation services, 79% to enhanced recovery, and 27% to community rehabilitation teams. CONCLUSION: Practitioners from all groups surveyed considered that appropriate training, dedicated pathways for optimization, frailty specific performance indicators and evidence that frailty scoring had an impact on clinical outcomes and patient experience could all help to improve care for frail patients.

Development and external validation of a clinical prediction model to aid coeliac disease diagnosis in primary care: An observational study.

Background: Coeliac disease (CD) affects approximately 1% of the population, although only a fraction of patients are diagnosed. Our objective was to develop diagnostic prediction models to help decide who should be offered testing for CD in primary care. Methods: Logistic regression models were developed in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD (between Sep 9, 1987 and Apr 4, 2021, n=107,075) and externally validated in CPRD Aurum (between Jan 1, 1995 and Jan 15, 2021, n=227,915), two UK primary care databases, using (and controlling for) 1:4 nested case-control designs. Candidate predictors included symptoms and chronic conditions identified in current guidelines and using a systematic review of the literature. We used elastic-net regression to further refine the models. Findings: The prediction model included 24, 24, and 21 predictors for children, women, and men, respectively. For children, the strongest predictors were type 1 diabetes, Turner syndrome, IgA deficiency, or first-degree relatives with CD. For women and men, these were anaemia and first-degree relatives. In the development dataset, the models showed good discrimination with a c-statistic of 0·84 (95% CI 0·83-0·84) in children, 0·77 (0·77-0·78) in women, and 0·81 (0·81-0·82) in men. External validation discrimination was lower, potentially because 'first-degree relative' was not recorded in the dataset used for validation. Model calibration was poor, tending to overestimate CD risk in all three groups in both datasets. Interpretation: These prediction models could help identify individuals with an increased risk of CD in relatively low prevalence populations such as primary care. Offering a serological test to these patients could increase case finding for CD. However, this involves offering tests to more people than is currently done. Further work is needed in prospective cohorts to refine and confirm the models and assess clinical and cost effectiveness. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (grant number NIHR129020).

Smoke-free spaces: a decade of progress, a need for more?

Adoption of smoke-free measures has been one of the central elements of tobacco control activity over the past 30 years. The past decade has seen an increasing number of countries and proportion of the global population covered by smoke-free policies to some extent. Despite reductions in global smoking prevalence, population growth means that the number of non-smokers exposed to the harms caused by secondhand smoke remains high. Smoke-free policy measures have been shown to be useful in protecting non-smokers from secondhand smoke, and can additionally increase cessation and reduce smoking initiation. Policies tend to be aimed primarily at enclosed public or workplace settings with very few countries attempting to control exposure in private or semiprivate spaces such as homes and cars, and, as a result, children may be benefiting less from smoke-free measures than adults. Compliance with legislation also varies by country and there is a need for education and empowerment together with guidance and changing social norms to help deliver the full benefits that smoke-free spaces can bring. Restrictions and policies on use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) in smoke-free settings require more research to determine the benefits and implications of bystanders' exposure to secondhand e-cigarette aerosol, dual use and smoking cessation.

Challenges associated with e-cigarette use by people in custody in Scottish prisons: a qualitative interview study with prison staff.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the perspectives of staff working in prisons where e-cigarettes are permitted. Scotland now permits people in custody (PiC), but not staff/visitors to use e-cigarettes, following implementation of smoke-free prisons policy in 2018. Previous studies, conducted before and immediately after the introduction of e-cigarettes in Scottish prisons, have evidenced stakeholder support for their use by PiC. This study focuses on key challenges associated with e-cigarette use in prisons, using data collected from prison staff once e-cigarettes had been allowed in a smoke-free environment for 6-9 months. SETTING: Five prisons in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Sixteen qualitative interviews were conducted with prison staff from five prisons varying by population (sex, age and sentence length). Data were managed and analysed using the framework approach. RESULTS: While these staff confirmed strong support for the smoke-free prison policy and reported some benefits of replacing tobacco with e-cigarettes, they also spoke of the challenges e-cigarettes pose. These included: workplace e-cigarette vapour exposures; perceptions that e-cigarettes provide a new, effective way for some PiC to take illegal drugs, particularly new psychoactive substances; organisational challenges relating to the value attached to e-cigarettes in prisons; and implications for long-term nicotine use and tobacco cessation. Staff anticipated difficulties in tightening restrictions on e-cigarette use by PiC given its scale and significance among this population. CONCLUSIONS: Maximising the benefits of e-cigarette use by PiC is likely to require multiple measures to support effective and safe use and e-cigarette reduction/cessation where desired. This includes monitoring any misuse of e-cigarettes, and provision of guidance and support on appropriate e-cigarette use and how to limit or quit use if desired. Findings are relevant to jurisdictions considering or planning changes in prison smoking or vaping policies.