Intraoperative prediction of postanaesthesia care unit hypotension.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative hypotension is associated with adverse outcomes, but intraoperative prediction of postanaesthesia care unit (PACU) hypotension is not routine in anaesthesiology workflow. Although machine learning models may support clinician prediction of PACU hypotension, clinician acceptance of prediction models is poorly understood. METHODS: We developed a clinically informed gradient boosting machine learning model using preoperative and intraoperative data from 88 446 surgical patients from 2015 to 2019. Nine anaesthesiologists each made 192 predictions of PACU hypotension using a web-based visualisation tool with and without input from the machine learning model. Questionnaires and interviews were analysed using thematic content analysis for model acceptance by anaesthesiologists. RESULTS: The model predicted PACU hypotension in 17 029 patients (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.82 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.81-0.83] and average precision 0.40 [95% CI: 0.38-0.42]). On a random representative subset of 192 cases, anaesthesiologist performance improved from AUROC 0.67 (95% CI: 0.60-0.73) to AUROC 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) with model predictions and information on risk factors. Anaesthesiologists perceived more value and expressed trust in the prediction model for prospective planning, informing PACU handoffs, and drawing attention to unexpected cases of PACU hypotension, but they doubted the model when predictions and associated features were not aligned with clinical judgement. Anaesthesiologists expressed interest in patient-specific thresholds for defining and treating postoperative hypotension. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of anaesthesiologists to predict PACU hypotension was improved by exposure to machine learning model predictions. Clinicians acknowledged value and trust in machine learning technology. Increasing familiarity with clinical use of model predictions is needed for effective integration into perioperative workflows.

Sociodemographic and clinical features predictive of SARS-CoV-2 test positivity across healthcare visit-types.

BACKGROUND: Despite increased testing efforts and the deployment of vaccines, COVID-19 cases and death toll continue to rise at record rates. Health systems routinely collect clinical and non-clinical information in electronic health records (EHR), yet little is known about how the minimal or intermediate spectra of EHR data can be leveraged to characterize patient SARS-CoV-2 pretest probability in support of interventional strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We modeled patient pretest probability for SARS-CoV-2 test positivity and determined which features were contributing to the prediction and relative to patients triaged in inpatient, outpatient, and telehealth/drive-up visit-types. Data from the University of Washington (UW) Medicine Health System, which excluded UW Medicine care providers, included patients predominately residing in the Seattle Puget Sound area, were used to develop a gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) model. Patients were included if they had at least one visit prior to initial SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing between January 01, 2020 through August 7, 2020. Model performance assessments used area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) and area-under-the-precision-recall (AUPR) curves. Feature performance assessments used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. The generalized pretest probability model using all available features achieved high overall discriminative performance (AUROC, 0.82). Performance among inpatients (AUROC, 0.86) was higher than telehealth/drive-up testing (AUROC, 0.81) or outpatient testing (AUROC, 0.76). The two-week test positivity rate in patient ZIP code was the most informative feature towards test positivity across visit-types. Geographic and sociodemographic factors were more important predictors of SARS-CoV-2 positivity than individual clinical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Recent geographic and sociodemographic factors, routinely collected in EHR though not routinely considered in clinical care, are the strongest predictors of initial SARS-CoV-2 test result. These findings were consistent across visit types, informing our understanding of individual SARS-CoV-2 risk factors with implications for deployment of testing, outreach, and population-level prevention efforts.

Evaluation of Deep Learning to Augment Image-Guided Radiotherapy for Head and Neck and Prostate Cancers.

Importance: Personalized radiotherapy planning depends on high-quality delineation of target tumors and surrounding organs at risk (OARs). This process puts additional time burdens on oncologists and introduces variability among both experts and institutions. Objective: To explore clinically acceptable autocontouring solutions that can be integrated into existing workflows and used in different domains of radiotherapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quality improvement study used a multicenter imaging data set comprising 519 pelvic and 242 head and neck computed tomography (CT) scans from 8 distinct clinical sites and patients diagnosed either with prostate or head and neck cancer. The scans were acquired as part of treatment dose planning from patients who received intensity-modulated radiation therapy between October 2013 and February 2020. Fifteen different OARs were manually annotated by expert readers and radiation oncologists. The models were trained on a subset of the data set to automatically delineate OARs and evaluated on both internal and external data sets. Data analysis was conducted October 2019 to September 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The autocontouring solution was evaluated on external data sets, and its accuracy was quantified with volumetric agreement and surface distance measures. Models were benchmarked against expert annotations in an interobserver variability (IOV) study. Clinical utility was evaluated by measuring time spent on manual corrections and annotations from scratch. Results: A total of 519 participants' (519 [100%] men; 390 [75%] aged 62-75 years) pelvic CT images and 242 participants' (184 [76%] men; 194 [80%] aged 50-73 years) head and neck CT images were included. The models achieved levels of clinical accuracy within the bounds of expert IOV for 13 of 15 structures (eg, left femur, κ = 0.982; brainstem, κ = 0.806) and performed consistently well across both external and internal data sets (eg, mean [SD] Dice score for left femur, internal vs external data sets: 98.52% [0.50] vs 98.04% [1.02]; P = .04). The correction time of autogenerated contours on 10 head and neck and 10 prostate scans was measured as a mean of 4.98 (95% CI, 4.44-5.52) min/scan and 3.40 (95% CI, 1.60-5.20) min/scan, respectively, to ensure clinically accepted accuracy. Manual segmentation of the head and neck took a mean 86.75 (95% CI, 75.21-92.29) min/scan for an expert reader and 73.25 (95% CI, 68.68-77.82) min/scan for a radiation oncologist. The autogenerated contours represented a 93% reduction in time. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the models achieved levels of clinical accuracy within expert IOV while reducing manual contouring time and performing consistently well across previously unseen heterogeneous data sets. With the availability of open-source libraries and reliable performance, this creates significant opportunities for the transformation of radiation treatment planning.