Incidence and Characteristics of Remission of Type 2 Diabetes in England: A Cohort Study Using the National Diabetes Audit.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of remission of type 2 diabetes in routine care settings. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: People with type 2 diabetes (HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol [6.5%] or <48 mmol/mol [6.5%] with a prescription for glucose-lowering medications) alive on 1 April 2018 were identified from a national collation of health records in England and followed until 31 December 2019. Remission was defined as two HbA1c measurements of <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) at least 182 days apart, with no prescription for glucose-lowering medications 90 days before these measurements. RESULTS: In 2,297,700 people with type 2 diabetes, the overall incidence of remission per 1,000 person-years was 9.7 (95% CI 9.6-9.8) and 44.9 (95% CI 44.0-45.7) in 75,610 (3.3%) people who were diagnosed <1 year. In addition to shorter duration of diagnosis, baseline factors associated with higher odds of remission were no prescription for glucose-lowering medication, lower HbA1c and BMI, BMI reduction, White ethnicity, female sex, and lower socioeconomic deprivation. Among 8,940 (0.4%) with characteristics associated with remission (diagnosed <2 years, HbA1c <53 mmol/mol [7.0%], prescribed metformin alone or no glucose-lowering medications, BMI reduction of ≥10%), incidence of remission per 1,000 person-years was 83.2 (95% CI 78.7-87.9). CONCLUSIONS: Remission of type 2 diabetes was generally infrequent in routine care settings but may be a reasonable goal for a subset of people who lose a significant amount of weight shortly after diagnosis. Policies that encourage intentional remission of type 2 diabetes should seek to reduce the ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities identified.

Characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: a 5-year national population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes in pregnancy is associated with preterm delivery, birthweight extremes, and increased rates of congenital anomaly, stillbirth, and neonatal death. We aimed to identify and compare modifiable risk factors associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with type 1 diabetes and those with type 2 diabetes and to identify effective maternity clinics. METHODS: In this national population-based cohort study, we used data for pregnancies among women with type 1 or type 2 diabetes collected in the first 5 years of the National Pregnancy in Diabetes audit across 172 maternity clinics in England, Wales, and the Isle of Man, UK. Data for obstetric complications (eg, preterm delivery [<37 weeks' gestation], large for gestational age [LGA] birthweight [>90th percentile]) and adverse pregnancy outcomes (congenital anomaly, stillbirth, neonatal death) were obtained for pregnancies completed between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2018. We assessed associations between modifiable (eg, HbA1c, BMI, pre-pregnancy care, maternity clinic) and non-modifiable risk factors (eg, age, ethnicity, deprivation, duration of type 1 diabetes) with pregnancy outcomes in women with type 1 diabetes compared with those with type 2 diabetes. We calculated associations between maternal factors and perinatal deaths using a regression model, including diabetes type and duration, maternal age, BMI, deprivation quintile, first trimester HbA1c, preconception folic acid, potentially harmful medications, and third trimester HbA1c. FINDINGS: Our dataset included 17 375 pregnancy outcomes in 15 290 pregnant women. 8690 (50·0%) of 17 375 pregnancies were in women with type 1 diabetes (median age at delivery 30 years [10-90th percentile 22-37], median duration of diabetes 13 years [3-25]) and 8685 (50·0%) were in women with type 2 diabetes (median age at delivery 34 years [27-41], median duration of diabetes 3 years [0-10]). The rates of preterm delivery (3325 [42·5%] of 7825 pregnancies among women with type 1 diabetes, 1825 [23·4%] of 7815 with type 2 diabetes; p<0·0001), and LGA birthweight (4095 [52·2%] of 7845 with type 1 diabetes, 2065 [26·2%] of 7885 with type 2 diabetes; p<0·0001) were higher in type 1 diabetes. The prevalence of congenital anomaly (among women with type 1 diabetes: 44·8 per 1000 livebirths, terminations, and fetal losses; among women with type 2 diabetes: 40·5 per 1000 livebirths, terminations, and fetal losses; p=0·17) and stillbirth (type 1 diabetes: 10·4 per 1000 livebirths and stillbirths; type 2 diabetes: 13·5 per 1000 livebirths and stillbirths; p=0·072) did not significantly differ between diabetes types, but rates of neonatal death were higher in mothers with type 2 diabetes than in those with type 1 diabetes (type 1 diabetes: 7·4 per 1000 livebirths; type 2 diabetes 11·2 per 1000 livebirths; p=0·013). Across the whole study population, independent risk factors for perinatal death (ie, stillbirth or neonatal death) were third trimester HbA1c of 6·5% (48 mmol/mol) or higher (odds ratio 3·06 [95% CI 2·16-4·33] vs HbA1c <6·5%), being in the highest deprivation quintile (2·29 [1·16-4·52] vs the lowest quintile), and having type 2 diabetes (1·65 [1·18-2·31] vs type 1 diabetes). Variations in HbA1c and LGA birthweight were associated with maternal characteristics (age, diabetes duration, deprivation, BMI) without substantial differences between maternity clinics. INTERPRETATION: Our data highlight persistent adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Maternal glycaemia and BMI are the key modifiable risk factors. No maternity clinics were had appreciably better outcomes than any others, suggesting that health-care system changes are needed across all clinics. FUNDING: None.

Risk factors for COVID-19-related mortality in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in England: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes has been associated with increased COVID-19-related mortality, but the association between modifiable risk factors, including hyperglycaemia and obesity, and COVID-19-related mortality among people with diabetes is unclear. We assessed associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related mortality in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We did a population-based cohort study of people with diagnosed diabetes who were registered with a general practice in England. National population data on people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes collated by the National Diabetes Audit were linked to mortality records collated by the Office for National Statistics from Jan 2, 2017, to May 11, 2020. We identified the weekly number of deaths in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes during the first 19 weeks of 2020 and calculated the percentage change from the mean number of deaths for the corresponding weeks in 2017, 2018, and 2019. The associations between risk factors (including sex, age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, HbA1c, renal impairment [from estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)], BMI, tobacco smoking status, and cardiovascular comorbidities) and COVID-19-related mortality (defined as International Classification of Diseases, version 10, code U07.1 or U07.2 as a primary or secondary cause of death) between Feb 16 and May 11, 2020, were investigated by use of Cox proportional hazards models. FINDINGS: Weekly death registrations in the first 19 weeks of 2020 exceeded the corresponding 3-year weekly averages for 2017-19 by 672 (50·9%) in people with type 1 diabetes and 16 071 (64·3%) in people with type 2 diabetes. Between Feb 16 and May 11, 2020, among 264 390 people with type 1 diabetes and 2 874 020 people with type 2 diabetes, 1604 people with type 1 diabetes and 36 291 people with type 2 diabetes died from all causes. Of these total deaths, 464 in people with type 1 diabetes and 10 525 in people with type 2 diabetes were defined as COVID-19 related, of which 289 (62·3%) and 5833 (55·4%), respectively, occurred in people with a history of cardiovascular disease or with renal impairment (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1·73 m2). Male sex, older age, renal impairment, non-white ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and previous stroke and heart failure were associated with increased COVID-19-related mortality in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Compared with people with an HbA1c of 48-53 mmol/mol (6·5-7·0%), people with an HbA1c of 86 mmol/mol (10·0%) or higher had increased COVID-19-related mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 2·23 [95% CI 1·50-3·30, p<0·0001] in type 1 diabetes and 1·61 [1·47-1·77, p<0·0001] in type 2 diabetes). In addition, in people with type 2 diabetes, COVID-19-related mortality was significantly higher in those with an HbA1c of 59 mmol/mol (7·6%) or higher than in those with an HbA1c of 48-53 mmol/mol (HR 1·22 [95% CI 1·15-1·30, p<0·0001] for 59-74 mmol/mol [7·6-8·9%] and 1·36 [1·24-1·50, p<0·0001] for 75-85 mmol/mol [9·0-9·9%]). The association between BMI and COVID-19-related mortality was U-shaped: in type 1 diabetes, compared with a BMI of 25·0-29·9 kg/m2, a BMI of less than 20·0 kg/m2 had an HR of 2·45 (95% CI 1·60-3·75, p<0·0001) and a BMI of 40·0 kg/m2 or higher had an HR of 2·33 (1·53-3·56, p<0·0001); the corresponding HRs for type 2 diabetes were 2·33 (2·11-2·56, p<0·0001) and 1·60 (1·47-1·75, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Deaths in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes rose sharply during the initial COVID-19 pandemic in England. Increased COVID-19-related mortality was associated not only with cardiovascular and renal complications of diabetes but, independently, also with glycaemic control and BMI. FUNDING: None.