A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population-based avoidable hospitalization risk: Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Prediction Tool (AvHPoRT).

INTRODUCTION: Avoidable hospitalizations are considered preventable given effective and timely primary care management and are an important indicator of health system performance. The ability to predict avoidable hospitalizations at the population level represents a significant advantage for health system decision-makers that could facilitate proactive intervention for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). The aim of this study is to develop and validate the Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Tool (AvHPoRT) that will predict the 5-year risk of first avoidable hospitalization for seven ACSCs using self-reported, routinely collected population health survey data. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The derivation cohort will consist of respondents to the first 3 cycles (2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06) of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) who are 18-74 years of age at survey administration and a hold-out data set will be used for external validation. Outcome information on avoidable hospitalizations for 5 years following the CCHS interview will be assessed through data linkage to the Discharge Abstract Database (1999/2000-2017/2018) for an estimated sample size of 394,600. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, self-perceived health measures, health behaviors, chronic conditions, and area-based measures. Sex-specific algorithms will be developed using Weibull accelerated failure time survival models. The model will be validated both using split set cross-validation and external temporal validation split using cycles 2000-2006 compared to 2007-2012. We will assess measures of overall predictive performance (Nagelkerke R2), calibration (calibration plots), and discrimination (Harrell's concordance statistic). Development of the model will be informed by the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Research Ethics Board. The predictive algorithm and findings from this work will be disseminated at scientific meetings and in peer-reviewed publications.

"Whatever journey you want to take, I'll support you through": a mixed methods evaluation of a peer worker program in the hospital emergency department.

BACKGROUND: People who are unhoused, use substances (drugs and/or alcohol), and who have mental health conditions experience barriers to care access and are frequently confronted with discrimination and stigma in health care settings. The role of Peer Workers in addressing these gaps in a hospital-based context is not well characterized. The aim of this evaluation was to 1) outline the role of Peer Workers in the care of a marginalized populations in the emergency department; 2) characterize the impact of Peer Workers on patient care, and 3) to describe how being employed as a Peer Worker impacts the Peer. METHODS: Through a concurrent mixed methods evaluation, we explore the role of Peer Workers in the care of marginalized populations in the emergency department at two urban hospitals in Toronto, Ontario Canada. We describe the demographic characteristics of patients (n = 555) and the type of supports provided to patients collected through a survey between February and June 2022. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were completed with Peer Workers (n = 7). Interviews were thematically analyzed using a deductive approach, complemented by an inductive approach to allow new themes to emerge from the data. RESULTS: Support provided to patients primarily consisted of friendly conversations (91.4%), discharge planning (59.6%), tactics to help the patient navigate their emotions/mental wellbeing (57.8%) and sharing their lived experience (50.1%). In over one third (38.9%) of all patient interactions, Peer Workers shared new information about the patient with the health care team (e.g., obtaining patient identification). Five major themes emerged from our interviews with Peer Workers which include: (1) Establishing empathy and building trust between the patient and their care team through self-disclosure; (2) Facilitating a person-centered approach to patient care through trauma-informed listening and accessible language; (3) Support for patient preferences on harm reduction; (4) Peer worker role facilitating self-acceptance and self-defined recovery; and (5) Importance of supports and resources to help Peer Workers navigate the emotional intensity of the emergency department. CONCLUSIONS: The findings add to the literature on Peer Worker programs and how such interventions are designed to best meet the needs of marginalized populations.

Children with Down syndrome who experience developmental skill loss, characterization, and phenomenology: A case series.

Loss of previously acquired developmental skills in children with Down syndrome (DS) is not a well characterized phenomenon. We identified 20 confirmed cases of childhood-onset skill loss for descriptive analysis. Eligible participants were recruited from a specialty clinic for persons with DS at a large medical center. Age and gender-matched participants also with DS but without skill loss were used as a comparison group. Case and control participants were between 3 and 14 years (mean 7.6 yr) at the time of evaluation. Loss of previously acquired communication, social-communication, and play skills was experienced by all cases, as well as new-onset or intensification of pre-existing maladaptive behaviors. The Aberrant Behavior Checklist (ABC)-community was helpful in distinguishing group differences in maladaptive behavior among cases and controls. All cases met DSMIV criteria for autism. Developmental skill loss associated with autism is an extreme example of within-group phenotypic variability and needs to be the focus of further research.

Modelling population-level and targeted interventions of weight loss on chronic disease prevention in the Canadian population.

Obesity is a known risk factor for major chronic diseases. Prevention of chronic disease is a top global priority. The study aimed to model scenarios of population-level and targeted weight loss interventions on 10-year projected risk of chronic disease in Canada using a population-level risk prediction algorithm. The validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) forecasts 10-year risk of chronic disease in the adult population. We applied CDPoRT to the 2013/14 Canadian Community Health Survey to generate prospective chronic disease estimates for adults 20 years and older in Canada (n = 83,220). CDPoRT was used to model the following scenarios: British Columbia's (BC) and Quebec's (QC) provincial population-level weight reduction targets, a population-level intervention that could achieve weight loss, targeted weight loss interventions for overweight and obese groups, and the combination of a population-level and targeted weight loss intervention. We estimated chronic disease risk reductions and number of cases prevented in each scenario compared with the baseline. At baseline, we predicted an 18.4% risk and 4,151,929 new cases of chronic disease in Canada over the 10-year period. Provincial weight loss targets applied to the Canadian population estimated chronic disease reductions of 0.6% (BC) and 0.1% (QC). The population-level intervention estimated a greater reduction in risk (0.2%), compared to the targeted interventions (0.1%). The combined approach estimated a 0.3% reduction in chronic disease risk. Our modelling predicted that population-level approaches that achieve weight loss in combination with targeted weight loss interventions can substantially decrease the chronic disease burden in Canada.

Promise and peril: how health system reforms impacted public health in three Canadian provinces.

OBJECTIVES: Several Canadian provinces and territories have reformed their health systems by centralizing power, resources, and responsibilities. Our study explored motivating factors and perceived impacts of centralization reforms on public health systems and essential operations. METHODS: A multiple case study design was used to examine three Canadian provinces that have undergone, or are in the process of undergoing, health system reform. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 58 participants within public health at strategic and operational levels, from Alberta, Ontario, and Québec. Data were analyzed using a thematic analytical approach to iteratively conceptualize and refine themes. RESULTS: Three major themes were developed to describe the context and impacts of health system centralization reforms on public health: (1) promising "value for money" and consolidating authority; (2) impacting intersectoral and community-level collaboration; and (3) deprioritizing public health operations and contributing to workforce precarity. Centralization highlighted concerns about the prioritization of healthcare sectors. Some core public health functions were reported to operate more efficiently, with less duplication of services, and improvements in program consistency and quality, particularly in Alberta. Reforms were also reported to have diverted funding and human resources away from core essential functions, and diminished the public health workforce. CONCLUSION: Our study highlighted that stakeholder priorities and a limited understanding about public health systems influenced how reforms were implemented. Our findings support calls for modernized and inclusive governance, stable public health funding, and investment in the public health workforce, which may help inform future reforms.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Plusieurs provinces et territoires canadiens ont réformé leur système de santé en centralisant le pouvoir, les ressources et les responsabilités. Notre étude a exploré les facteurs sous-jacents et les impacts perçus des réformes de centralisation sur les systèmes et les opérations essentielles de santé publique. MéTHODES: Nous avons mené une étude de cas multiples pour examiner la situation de trois provinces canadiennes qui ont subi ou qui sont en train de réaliser une réforme du système de santé. Des entrevues semi-structurées ont été menées auprès de 58 participants de la santé publique aux niveaux stratégique et opérationnel, en Alberta, en Ontario et au Québec. De façon itérative, nous avons thématiquement analysé les données recueillies. RéSULTATS: Trois thèmes principaux ont été formulés pour décrire le contexte et les impacts des réformes de centralisation du système de santé sur la santé publique : 1) la promesse d'une « optimisation des ressources ¼ et la consolidation de l'autorité, 2) l'impact sur la collaboration intersectorielle et communautaire, et 3) la privatisation des opérations de santé publique et la précarisation de la main-d'œuvre. La centralisation a mis en lumière des préoccupations quant à la priorité accordée aux services de santé. Certaines fonctions essentielles de la santé publique fonctionneraient de manière plus efficace, avec moins de dédoublement des services et des améliorations de la cohérence et de la qualité des programmes, notamment en Alberta. Les réformes auraient aussi détourné des fonds et des ressources humaines des fonctions essentielles de base et auraient réduit les effectifs de la santé publique. CONCLUSION: Notre étude a mis en exergue les priorités des parties prenantes et une compréhension limitée des systèmes de santé publique qui ont influencé la manière dont les réformes ont été mises en œuvre. Nos résultats soutiennent les appels à une gouvernance plus modernisée et inclusive, à un financement stable de la santé publique et à un investissement dans le personnel de santé publique, pouvant ainsi contribuer à alimenter les futures réformes.

Experiences and Reported Outcomes of Patients and Caregivers Enrolled in an Integrated Care Program for Thoracic Surgery: A Qualitative Evaluation.

Background: Health care delivery is often poorly coordinated and fragmented. Integrated care (IC) programs represent one solution to improving continuity of care. The aim of this study was to understand experiences and reported outcomes of patients and caregivers in an IC Program that coordinates hospital and home care for thoracic surgery. Methods: A process evaluation was undertaken using qualitative methods. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 10 patients and 8 caregivers who received IC for thoracic surgery and were discharged between June 2019 and April 2020. A phenomenological approach was used to understand and characterize patient and caregiver experiences. Thematic analysis began with a deductive approach complemented by an inductive approach. Results: Four major themes evolved from patient and caregiver interviews, including 1) coordination and timeliness of patient care facilitated by an IC lead; 2) the provision of person-centred care and relational continuity fostered feelings of partnership with patients and caregivers; 3) clear communication and one shared digital record increased informational continuity; and 4) impacts of IC on patient and caregiver outcomes. Conclusions: Patients and caregivers generally reported this IC Program met their health care needs, which may help inform how future IC programs are designed.

Centralization and integration of public health systems: Perspectives of public health leaders on factors facilitating and impeding COVID-19 responses in three Canadian provinces.

The extent to which power, resources, and responsibilities for public health are centralized or decentralized within a jurisdiction and how public health functions are integrated or coordinated with health care services may shape pandemic responses. However, little is known about the impacts of centralization and integration on public health system responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine how public health leaders perceive centralization and integration facilitated and impeded effective COVID-19 responses in three Canadian provinces. We conducted a comparative case study involving semi-structured interviews with 58 public health system leaders in three Canadian provinces with varying degrees of centralization and integration. Greater public health system centralization and integration was seen by public health leaders to facilitate more rapidly initiated and well-coordinated provincial COVID-19 responses. Decentralization may have enabled locally tailored responses in the context of limited provincial leadership. Opacity in provincial decision-making processes, jurisdictional ambiguity impacting Indigenous communities, and ineffectual public health investments were impediments across jurisdictions and thus appear to be less impacted by centralization and integration. Our study generates novel insights about potential structural facilitators and impediments of effective COVID-19 pandemic responses during the second year of the pandemic. Findings highlight key areas for future research to inform system design that support leaders to manage large-scale public health emergencies.

Can the Healthcare System Improve Food Security? A Need for Collaborative Community Partnerships.

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the food insecurity crisis in Canada, and existing supports have been largely insufficient to meet the food needs of communities. In response to increasing reports of food insecurity among Toronto residents during the pandemic, the Food RX program was developed as a collaborative initiative between FoodShare Toronto - a local, community-based food justice organization - and the University Health Network, a large university-affiliated hospital network in downtown Toronto, ON. This commentary describes the Food RX program, highlights the lessons learned during its early implementation and offers a set of recommendations for building community partnerships moving forward.

Early Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Public Health Systems and Practice in 3 Canadian Provinces From the Perspective of Public Health Leaders: A Qualitative Study.

CONTEXT: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted health systems worldwide. Studies to date have largely focused on the health care system with less attention to the impact on public health systems and practice. OBJECTIVE: To describe the early impacts of COVID-19 on public health systems and practice in 3 Canadian provinces from the perspective of public health system leaders and synthesize lessons learned. DESIGN: A qualitative study using semistructured virtual interviews with public health leaders between October 2020 and April 2021. The World Health Organization's essential public health operations framework guided data collection and analysis. SETTING: This study involved the Canadian provinces of Alberta, Ontario, and Québec. These provinces were chosen for their large populations, relatively high COVID-19 burden, and variation in public health systems. PARTICIPANTS: Public health leaders from Alberta (n = 21), Ontario (n = 18), and Québec (n = 19) in organizations with a primary mandate of stewardship and/or administration of essential public health operations (total n = 58). RESULTS: We found that the COVID-19 pandemic led to intensified collaboration in public health systems and a change in workforce capacity to respond to the pandemic. This came with opportunities but also challenges of burnout and disruption of non-COVID-19 services. Information systems and digital technologies were increasingly used and there was greater proximity between public health leaders and other health system leaders. A renewed recognition for public health work was also highlighted. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted several aspects of public health systems in the provinces studied. Our findings can help public health leaders and policy makers identify areas for further investment (eg, intersectoral collaboration, information systems) and develop plans to address challenges (eg, disrupted services, workforce burnout) that have surfaced.

"We cobble together a storyline of system performance using a diversity of things": a qualitative study of perspectives on public health performance measurement in Canada.

BACKGROUND: There have been longstanding calls for public health systems transformations in many countries, including Canada. Core to these calls has been strengthening performance measurement. While advancements have been made in performance measurement for certain sectors of the health care system (primarily focused on acute and primary health care), effective use of indicators for measuring public health systems performance are lacking. This study describes the current state, anticipated challenges, and future directions in the development and implementation of a public health performance measurement system for Canada. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with public health leaders (n = 9) between July and August 2021. Public health leaders included researchers, government staff, and former medical officers of health who were purposively selected due to their expertise and experience with performance measurement with relevance to public health systems in Canada. Thematic analysis included both a deductive approach for themes consistent with the conceptual framework and an inductive approach to allow new themes to emerge from the data. RESULTS: Conceptual, methodological, contextual, and infrastructure challenges were highlighted by participants in designing a performance measurement system for public health. Specifically, six major themes evolved that encompass 1) the mission and purpose of public health systems, including challenges inherent in measuring the functions and services of public health; 2) the macro context, including the impacts of chronic underinvestment and one-time funding injections on the ability to sustain a measurement system; 3) the organizational structure/governance of public health systems including multiple forms across Canada and underdevelopment of information technology systems; 4) accountability approaches to performance measurement and management; and 5) timing and unobservability in public health indicators. These challenges require dedicated investment, strong leadership, and political will from the federal and provincial/territorial governments. CONCLUSION: Unprecedented attention on public health due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has highlighted opportunities for system improvements, such as addressing the lack of a performance measurement system. This study provides actionable knowledge on conceptual, methodological, contextual, and infrastructure challenges needed to design and build a pan-Canadian performance measurement system for public health.

Risk of intracranial hemorrhage with direct oral anticoagulants vs low molecular weight heparin in glioblastoma: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma (GBM) is associated with a high incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE), but there are little data to guide anticoagulation in patients with GBM, in whom the risks of VTE must be balanced against the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: We performed a single-institution retrospective cohort study of patients with GBM diagnosed with VTE from 2014 to 2021 who were treated with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) or a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC). The incidence of ICH was compared between the LMWH and DOAC groups. The primary outcome was clinically relevant ICH within the first 30 days of anticoagulation, defined as any ICH that was fatal, symptomatic, required surgical intervention, and/or led to cessation of anticoagulation. Secondary outcomes included clinically relevant ICH within 6 months, fatal ICH within 30 days and 6 months, and any bleeding within 30 days and 6 months. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-one patients were identified in the cohort for 30-day outcome analyses (DOAC, n = 33; LMWH, n = 88). For 6-month outcome analyses, the cohort included only patients who were maintained on their initial anticoagulant (DOAC, n = 32; LMWH, n = 75). The incidence of clinically relevant ICH at 30 days was 0% in the DOAC group and 9% in the LMWH group (P = .11). The cumulative incidence of clinically relevant ICH at 6 months was 0% in the DOAC group and 24% in the LMWH group (P = .001), with 4 fatal ICHs in the LMWH group. CONCLUSIONS: DOACs are associated with a lower incidence of clinically relevant ICH in patients with GBM-associated VTE compared to LMWH.

Cross-sectional association of light sensor-measured time outdoors with physical activity and gross motor competency among U.S. preschool-aged children: the 2012 NHANES National Youth Fitness Survey.

BACKGROUND: Time spent outdoors (outdoor time) has been suggested to be beneficial for physical activity (PA) and healthy development among preschool-aged children. The aim of this study was to quantify PA level and gross motor competency associated with light sensor-measured daily outdoor time in a representative sample of U.S. children aged 3 to 5 years. METHODS: The study sample included 301 participants (149 girls) aged 3 to 5 years from the 2012 U.S. National Health and Examination Survey National Youth Fitness Survey. ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometers with a built-in ambient light sensor were used to measure PA (expressed in monitor-independent movement summary [MIMS]) and outdoor time. The Test of Gross Motor Development-Second Edition (TGMD-2) was used to assess gross motor skills. Multivariable linear regression models were fit to predict daily and gross motor scores by daily outdoor time. RESULTS: Average daily outdoor time was 95 min (median of 84 min; interquartile range of 52 to 123 min). Means of daily outdoor time and daily MIMS were not significantly different between boys and girls. Among girls, every additional 10 min of daily outdoor time was associated with an additional 540 daily total MIMS (95% CI = 372, 708). Among boys, every additional 10 min of daily outdoor time was associated with an additional 296 daily total MIMS (95% CI = 131, 460). Every additional 10 min of daily outdoor time was associated with a 0.1-point (95% CI = 0.001, 0.130) higher object control standard score. Daily outdoor time was not associated with a locomotor standard score. CONCLUSIONS: In a representative sample of U.S. preschool-aged children, daily outdoor time was positively associated with daily PA. The contribution of outdoor time to PA was greater among girls than boys, suggesting that providing outdoor opportunities is critical for promoting PA, particularly among girls.

The Associations of Child's Clinical Conditions and Behavioral Problems with Parenting Stress among Families of Preschool-Aged Children: 2018-2019 National Survey of Child Health.

To understand parental stress resulting from parenting young children, the current literature has primarily focused on families of children with clinical conditions, but has placed far less attention on the general population. The aim of this study was to examine parenting stress related to children's clinical conditions and behavioral problems in a nationally representative sample of US children aged 3 to 5 years. The study sample included 8454 children aged 3 to 5 years and their parents who participated in the 2018-2019 US National Survey of Child Health (NSCH). Using online/paper NSCH questionnaires, parents reported their children's special health care needs (SHCN), clinically diagnosed mental, emotional, developmental, and behavioral (MEDB) problems (e.g., anxiety problem, developmental delay), and externalizing behaviors. Parents also reported the frequency of feeling aggravated from parenting the participating child as an indicator of elevated parenting stress. In the sample, the prevalence of elevated parenting stress was 5.1% overall (95% CI = 4.2, 6.0); however, it was significantly higher among parents of children with SHCN (20.8%; 95% CI = 16.7, 24.9), with MEDB problems (24.8%; 95% CI = 19.9, 29.8), and with externalizing behavior problems (14.7%; 95% CI = 11.8, 17.6). A multivariable logistic regression model showed that elevated parenting stress was associated with the child's SHCN (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.3; 1.3, 3.9), MEDB problems (AOR = 4.8; 95% CI = 2.5, 9.1), and externalizing behavior problems (AOR = 5.4; 95% CI = 3.1, 9.4). Even in children without SHCN or MEDB problems, externalizing behavior problems were associated with elevated parenting stress (AOR = 6.4; 95% CI = 3.3, 12.7). The findings call for greater attention to subclinical or yet to be diagnosed externalizing behavior problems among the general preschool-aged child population and their underestimated impact on parenting stress.

A sub-national real-time epidemiological and vaccination database for the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for real-time, open-access epidemiological information to inform public health decision-making and outbreak control efforts. In Canada, authority for healthcare delivery primarily lies at the provincial and territorial level; however, at the outset of the pandemic no definitive pan-Canadian COVID-19 datasets were available. The COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group was created to fill this crucial data gap. As a team of volunteer contributors, we collect daily COVID-19 data from a variety of governmental and non-governmental sources and curate a line-list of cases and mortality for all provinces and territories of Canada, including information on location, age, sex, travel history, and exposure, where available. We also curate time series of COVID-19 recoveries, testing, and vaccine doses administered and distributed. Data are recorded systematically at a fine sub-national scale, which can be used to support robust understanding of COVID-19 hotspots. We continue to maintain this dataset, and an accompanying online dashboard, to provide a reliable pan-Canadian COVID-19 resource to researchers, journalists, and the general public.

Characterising mental health and addictions and assault-related health care use in the year prior to death: a population-based linked cohort study of homicide victims.

INTRODUCTION: Homicide is an important cause of death for older youth and adult Canadians; however, little is known about health care use prior to death among this population. OBJECTIVES: To characterise health care use for mental health and addictions (MHA) and serious assault (herein referred to assault) one year prior to death among individuals who died by homicide in Ontario, Canada using linked mortality and health care utilisation data. METHODS: We report rates of health care use for MHA and assault in the year prior to death among all individuals 16 years and older in Ontario, Canada, who died by homicide from April 2003 to December 2012 (N = 1,541). Health care use for MHA included inpatient stays, emergency department (ED) visits and outpatient visits, whereas health care use for assault included only hospital-based care (ED visits and inpatient stays). Sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilisation were examined across homicide deaths, stratified by sex. RESULTS: Overall, 28.5% and 5.9% of homicide victims sought MHA and assault care in the year prior to death, respectively. A greater proportion of females accessed care for MHA, whereas a greater proportion of males accessed assault-related health care. Males were more likely to be hospitalised following an ED visit for a MHA or assault related reason, in comparison to females. The most common reason for a MHA hospital visit was for substance-related disorders. We found an increase over time for hospital-based visits for assault prior to death, a trend that was not observed for MHA-related visits. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of homicide victims interacted with the health care system for MHA or assault in the year prior to death. An increase in hospital-based visits for assault-related reasons prior to death was observed. These trends may offer insight into avenues for support and prevention for victims of homicide.

Estimating Population Benefits of Prevention Approaches Using a Risk Tool: High Resource Users in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare spending is concentrated, with a minority of the population accounting for the majority of healthcare costs. METHODS: The authors modelled the impact of high resource user (HRU) prevention strategies within five years using the validated High Resource User Population Risk Tool. RESULTS: The authors estimated 758,000 new HRUs in Ontario from 2013-2014 to 2018-2019, resulting in $16.20 billion in healthcare costs (Canadian dollars 2016). The prevention approach that had the largest reduction in HRUs was targeting health-risk behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the use of a policy tool by decision makers to support prevention approaches that consider the impact on HRUs and estimated healthcare costs.

A study protocol for a predictive algorithm to assess population-based premature mortality risk: Premature Mortality Population Risk Tool (PreMPoRT).

BACKGROUND: Premature mortality is an important population health indicator used to assess health system functioning and to identify areas in need of health system intervention. Predicting the future incidence of premature mortality in the population can facilitate initiatives that promote equitable health policies and effective delivery of public health services. This study protocol proposes the development and validation of the Premature Mortality Risk Prediction Tool (PreMPoRT) that will predict the incidence of premature mortality using large population-based community health surveys and multivariable modeling approaches. METHODS: PreMPoRT will be developed and validated using various training, validation, and test data sets generated from the six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics Database from 2000 to 2017. Population-level risk factor information on demographic characteristics, health behaviors, area level measures, and other health-related factors will be used to develop PreMPoRT and to predict the incidence of premature mortality, defined as death prior to age 75, over a 5-year period. Sex-specific Weibull accelerated failure time models will be developed using a Canadian provincial derivation cohort consisting of approximately 500,000 individuals, with approximately equal proportion of males and females, and about 12,000 events of premature mortality. External validation will be performed using separate linked files (CCHS cycles 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012) from the development cohort (CCHS cycles 2000-2001, 2003-2004, and 2005-2006) to check the robustness of the prediction model. Measures of overall predictive performance (e.g., Nagelkerke's R2), calibration (e.g., calibration plots), and discrimination (e.g., Harrell's concordance statistic) will be assessed, including calibration within defined subgroups of importance to knowledge users and policymakers. DISCUSSION: Using routinely collected risk factor information, we anticipate that PreMPoRT will produce population-based estimates of premature mortality and will be used to inform population strategies for prevention.

Predicting population health with machine learning: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how machine learning has been applied to prediction applications in population health contexts. Specifically, to describe which outcomes have been studied, the data sources most widely used and whether reporting of machine learning predictive models aligns with established reporting guidelines. DESIGN: A scoping review. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, ProQuest, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, INSPEC and ACM Digital Library were searched on 18 July 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included English articles published between 1980 and 2018 that used machine learning to predict population-health-related outcomes. We excluded studies that only used logistic regression or were restricted to a clinical context. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We summarised findings extracted from published reports, which included general study characteristics, aspects of model development, reporting of results and model discussion items. RESULTS: Of 22 618 articles found by our search, 231 were included in the review. The USA (n=71, 30.74%) and China (n=40, 17.32%) produced the most studies. Cardiovascular disease (n=22, 9.52%) was the most studied outcome. The median number of observations was 5414 (IQR=16 543.5) and the median number of features was 17 (IQR=31). Health records (n=126, 54.5%) and investigator-generated data (n=86, 37.2%) were the most common data sources. Many studies did not incorporate recommended guidelines on machine learning and predictive modelling. Predictive discrimination was commonly assessed using area under the receiver operator curve (n=98, 42.42%) and calibration was rarely assessed (n=22, 9.52%). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning applications in population health have concentrated on regions and diseases well represented in traditional data sources, infrequently using big data. Important aspects of model development were under-reported. Greater use of big data and reporting guidelines for predictive modelling could improve machine learning applications in population health. REGISTRATION NUMBER: Registered on the Open Science Framework on 17 July 2018 (available at https://osf.io/rnqe6/).

Socioeconomic and Familial Factors Associated with Gross Motor Skills among US Children Aged 3-5 Years: The 2012 NHANES National Youth Fitness Survey.

The first aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of below average gross motor skills in a representative sample of US children aged 3 to 5 years. The second aim was to identify socioeconomic and familial characteristics that are associated with below average gross motor skills. Secondary analysis was conducted using the datasets from the 2012 National Health and Examination Survey National Youth Fitness Survey (NNYFS). The NNYFS assessed gross motor skills among 329 children aged 3-5 years, using the Test of Gross Motor Development-Second Edition (TGMD-2). Socioeconomic and familial characteristics of interest, such as family income and family structure, were asked in an in-person interview. This study estimated that one in three US children age 3 to 5 years old (33.9%) scored below average for gross motor quotient. In the gross motor subsets, one in four (24.4%) scored below average for locomotion and two in five (39.9%) scored below average for object control. Children living below the poverty threshold were more likely to have a higher gross motor quotient (odds ratio, OR = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, CI = 1.09-7.00). Girls were more likely to have a higher locomotor score (OR = 2.17; 95% CI = 1.10-4.25). Those living with other child(ren) aged ≤5 years were more likely to have a higher locomotor score (OR = 2.36; 95% CI = 1.01-5.54), while those living with child(ren) aged 6-17 years were more likely to have a higher object control score (OR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.24-2.69). This study revealed risk factors associated with poor gross motor development, furthering our understanding of gross motor development in early childhood.