Potential effects of climate change on Florida's Everglades.

Restoration efforts in Florida's Everglades focus on preserving and restoring this unique wetland's natural landscape. Because most of the Everglades is a freshwater peatland, it requires surplus rainfall to remain a peatland. Restoration plans generally assume a stable climate, yet projections of altered climate over a 50-year time horizon suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. Using a legacy regional hydrological model, we simulated combinations of a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a ± 10% change in rainfall, and a 0.46 m sea level rise relative to base conditions. The scenario of increased evapotranspiration and increased rainfall produced a slight increase in available water. In contrast, the more likely scenario of increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall lowered median water depths by 5-114 cm and shortened inundation duration periods by 5-45%. Sea level rise increased stages and inundation duration in southern Everglades National Park. These ecologically significant decreases in water depths and inundation duration periods would greatly alter current ecosystems through severe droughts, peat loss and carbon emissions, wildfires, loss of the unique ridge and slough patterns, large shifts in plant and animal communities, and increased exotic species invasions. These results suggest using adaptive restoration planning, a method that explicitly incorporates large climatic and environmental uncertainties into long-term ecosystem restoration plans, structural design, and management. Anticipated water constraints necessitate alternative approaches to restoration, including maintaining critical landscapes and facilitating transitions in others. Accommodating these uncertainties may improve the likelihood of restoration success.

Laboratory investigations of the effects of geologic heterogeneity on groundwater salinization and flush-out times from a tsunami-like event.

This intermediate scale laboratory experimental study was designed to improve the conceptual understanding of aquifer flushing time associated with diffuse saltwater contamination of coastal aquifers due to a tsunami-like event. The motivation comes from field observations made after the tsunami in December, 2004 in South Asia. The focus is on the role and effects of heterogeneity on flushing effectiveness. A scheme that combines experimentation in a 4.8m long laboratory tank and numerical modeling was used. To demonstrate the effects of geologic heterogeneity, plume migration and flushing times were analyzed in both homogeneous and layered media and under different boundary conditions (ambient flow, saltwater infiltration rate, freshwater recharge). Saltwater and freshwater infiltrations imitate the results of the groundwater salinization from the tsunami and freshening from the monsoon rainfall. The saltwater plume behavior was monitored both through visual observations (digital photography) of the dyed salt water and using measurements taken from several electrical conductivity sensors installed through the tank walls. The variable-density, three dimensional code HST3D was used to simulate the tank experiments and understand the fate and movement of the saltwater plume under field conditions. The results from the tank experiments and modeling demonstrated that macro-scale heterogeneity significantly influenced the migration patterns and flushing times of diffuse saltwater contamination. Ambient flow had a direct influence on total flush-out time, and heterogeneity impacted flush-out times for the top part of the tank and total flush-out times. The presence of a continuous low-permeability layer caused a 40% increase in complete flush-out time due to the slower flow of salt water in the low-permeability layer. When a relatively small opening was introduced in the low-permeability layer, salt water migrated quickly into a higher-permeable layer below causing a reduction in flush-out time. Freshwater recharge caused an early dilution of salt water in the top part of the tank in the case of a layered media, but also pushed the saltwater plume into the low-permeability layer which led to increased total flush-out times.