Trends and determinants of unmet need for modern contraception among adolescent girls and young women in Tanzania, 2004-2016.

Unintended pregnancy at a young age can lead to poor reproductive health, social and economic outcomes. The high rate of unintended teenage pregnancies in Tanzania is indicative of inadequate availability and uptake of modern contraception. Determining trends and determinants of unmet need for modern contraception among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in Tanzania will help address the burden of unintended pregnancies. An analytical cross-sectional study design was conducted using secondary data from three consecutive Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) 2004/05, 2010 and 2015/6 among AGYW in need of modern contraception. Data analysis considered the complex survey design. Poisson regression model was used to determine factors associated with unmet need for modern contraception. We observed a steady decline in unmet need for modern contraception among sexually active AGYW in need of modern contraception from 31.8% in 2004/05 to 27.5% in 2015/16 survey. In the multivariable analysis, higher prevalence of unmet need for modern contraception was observed among adolescents, participants with at least one live birth, from poor wealth tertile, and those sexually active during the past four weeks compared to their counterparts. Despite declining levels, the unmet need for modern contraception among AGYW in Tanzania remains high. AGYW under 19 years, those from poor households, and those who are postpartum are most at risk. Greater efforts in empowering and educating AGYW at risk on their reproductive health rights and needs will further the uptake of modern contraceptive use, reduce the rates of unintended pregnancies, lower the adolescent fertility rate as a result lower unmet need for modern contraception.

Joint Modeling of Singleton Preterm Birth and Perinatal Death Using Birth Registry Cohort Data in Northern Tanzania.

Understanding independent and joint predictors of adverse pregnancy outcomes is essential to inform interventions toward achieving sustainable development goals. We aimed to determine the joint predictors of preterm birth and perinatal death among singleton births in northern Tanzania based on cohort data from the Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center (KCMC) zonal referral hospital birth registry between 2000 and 2017. We determined the joint predictors of preterm birth and perinatal death using the random-effects models to account for the correlation between these outcomes. The joint predictors of higher preterm birth and perinatal death risk were inadequate (<4) antenatal care (ANC) visits, referred for delivery, experiencing pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum hemorrhage, low birth weight, abruption placenta, and breech presentation. Younger maternal age (15-24 years), premature rupture of membranes, placenta previa, and male children had higher odds of preterm birth but a lessened likelihood of perinatal death. These findings suggest ANC is a critical entry point for delivering the recommended interventions to pregnant women, especially those at high risk of experiencing adverse pregnancy outcomes. Improved management of complications during pregnancy and childbirth and the postnatal period may eventually lead to a substantial reduction of adverse perinatal outcomes and improving maternal and child health.

Predictors of singleton preterm birth using multinomial regression models accounting for missing data: A birth registry-based cohort study in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a significant contributor of under-five and newborn deaths globally. Recent estimates indicated that, Tanzania ranks the tenth country with the highest preterm birth rates in the world, and shares 2.2% of the global proportion of all preterm births. Previous studies applied binary regression models to determine predictors of preterm birth by collapsing gestational age at birth to <37 weeks. For targeted interventions, this study aimed to determine predictors of preterm birth using multinomial regression models accounting for missing data. METHODS: We carried out a secondary analysis of cohort data from the KCMC zonal referral hospital Medical Birth Registry for 44,117 women who gave birth to singletons between 2000-2015. KCMC is located in the Moshi Municipality, Kilimanjaro region, northern Tanzania. Data analysis was performed using Stata version 15.1. Assuming a nonmonotone pattern of missingness, data were imputed using a fully conditional specification (FCS) technique under the missing at random (MAR) assumption. Multinomial regression models with robust standard errors were used to determine predictors of moderately to late ([32,37) weeks of gestation) and very/extreme (<32 weeks of gestation) preterm birth. RESULTS: The overall proportion of preterm births among singleton births was 11.7%. The trends of preterm birth were significantly rising between the years 2000-2015 by 22.2% (95%CI 12.2%, 32.1%, p<0.001) for moderately to late preterm and 4.6% (95%CI 2.2%, 7.0%, p = 0.001) for very/extremely preterm birth category. After imputation of missing values, higher odds of moderately to late preterm delivery were among adolescent mothers (OR = 1.23, 95%CI 1.09, 1.39), with primary education level (OR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.18, 1.39), referred for delivery (OR = 1.19, 95%CI 1.09, 1.29), with pre-eclampsia/eclampsia (OR = 1.77, 95%CI 1.54, 2.02), inadequate (<4) antenatal care (ANC) visits (OR = 2.55, 95%CI 2.37, 2.74), PROM (OR = 1.80, 95%CI 1.50, 2.17), abruption placenta (OR = 2.05, 95%CI 1.32, 3.18), placenta previa (OR = 4.35, 95%CI 2.58, 7.33), delivery through CS (OR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.08, 1.25), delivered LBW baby (OR = 8.08, 95%CI 7.46, 8.76), experienced perinatal death (OR = 2.09, 95%CI 1.83, 2.40), and delivered male children (OR = 1.11, 95%CI 1.04, 1.20). Maternal age, education level, abruption placenta, and CS delivery showed no statistically significant association with very/extremely preterm birth. The effect of (<4) ANC visits, placenta previa, LBW, and perinatal death were more pronounced on the very/extremely preterm compared to the moderately to late preterm birth. Notably, extremely higher odds of very/extreme preterm birth were among the LBW babies (OR = 38.34, 95%CI 31.87, 46.11). CONCLUSIONS: The trends of preterm birth have increased over time in northern Tanzania. Policy decisions should intensify efforts to improve maternal and child care throughout the course of pregnancy and childbirth towards preterm birth prevention. For a positive pregnancy outcome, interventions to increase uptake and quality of ANC services should also be strengthened in Tanzania at all levels of care, where several interventions can easily be delivered to pregnant women, especially those at high-risk of experiencing adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Prediction of perinatal death using machine learning models: a birth registry-based cohort study in northern Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the key predictors of perinatal deaths using machine learning models compared with the logistic regression model. DESIGN: A secondary data analysis using the Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) Medical Birth Registry cohort from 2000 to 2015. We assessed the discriminative ability of models using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and the net benefit using decision curve analysis. SETTING: The KCMC is a zonal referral hospital located in Moshi Municipality, Kilimanjaro region, Northern Tanzania. The Medical Birth Registry is within the hospital grounds at the Reproductive and Child Health Centre. PARTICIPANTS: Singleton deliveries (n=42 319) with complete records from 2000 to 2015. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Perinatal death (composite of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths). These outcomes were only captured before mothers were discharged from the hospital. RESULTS: The proportion of perinatal deaths was 3.7%. There were no statistically significant differences in the predictive performance of four machine learning models except for bagging, which had a significantly lower performance (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.79, p=0.006) compared with the logistic regression model (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.81). However, in the decision curve analysis, the machine learning models had a higher net benefit (ie, the correct classification of perinatal deaths considering a trade-off between false-negatives and false-positives)-over the logistic regression model across a range of threshold probability values. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, there was no significant difference in the prediction of perinatal deaths between machine learning and logistic regression models, except for bagging. The machine learning models had a higher net benefit, as its predictive ability of perinatal death was considerably superior over the logistic regression model. The machine learning models, as demonstrated by our study, can be used to improve the prediction of perinatal deaths and triage for women at risk.

Recurrence rate of preterm birth and associated factors among women who delivered at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre in Northern Tanzania: A registry based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a public health problem particularly in low- and middle-income countries especially in sub-Saharan Africa. It is associated with infant morbidity and mortality. Survivor of preterm suffers long term health consequences such as respiratory, hearing and visual problems as well as delivering preterm infants. Preterm birth also tends to recur in subsequent pregnancies. Little is known about recurrent rate of preterm birth and associated factors in Tanzania. This study aimed to determine the recurrence rate of preterm birth and associated factors among women who delivered at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC), in Northern Tanzania. METHODS: A historic cohort study was designed using maternally-linked data from KCMC medical birth registry. Women who delivered 2 or more singletons were included. A total of 5,946 deliveries were analysed. Recurrence of preterm birth and associated risk factors were estimated using multivariable log-binomial regression model with robust standard error to account for repeated births from the same mother. RESULTS: Overall recurrent rate of preterm birth was 24.4%. The recurrence of early preterm birth was higher compared to late preterm birth (26.2% vs. 24.2%). Similar pattern of recurrence was observed for spontaneous and medically indicated preterm birth (13.5% vs. 10.9%, respectively). Previous preterm birth (RR;1.85, 95% CI: 1.49, 2.31), preeclampsia (RR;1.46, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.00), long inter-pregnancy interval (RR;1.22, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.49) and clinical subtypes (RR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.86) were important predictors for recurrent preterm birth. CONCLUSION: Recurrence of preterm birth remains higher in this population. The rate of preterm recurrence was dependent of gestational age and sub-clinical subtype. Other factors which were associated with recurrence of preterm birth were previous preterm birth, preeclampsia and long inter-pregnancy interval. Early identification of high risk women during prenatal period is warranted.

Predictors of perinatal death in the presence of missing data: A birth registry-based study in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: More than five million perinatal deaths occur each year globally. Despite efforts put forward during the millennium development goals era, perinatal deaths continue to increase relative to under-five deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to determine predictors of perinatal death in the presence of missing data using birth registry data from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center (KCMC), between 2000-2015. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study from the medical birth registry at KCMC referral hospital located in Moshi Municipality, Kilimanjaro region, northern Tanzania. Data were analyzed using Stata version 15.1. Multiple imputation by fully conditional specification (FCS) was used to impute missing values. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to determine the marginal effects of covariates on perinatal death using a log link mean model with robust standard errors. An exchangeable correlation structure was used to account for the dependence of observations within mothers. RESULTS: Among 50,487 deliveries recorded in the KCMC medical birth registry between 2000-2015, 4.2% (95%CI 4.0%, 4.3%) ended in perinatal death (equivalent to a perinatal mortality rate (PMR) of 41.6 (95%CI 39.9, 43.3) deaths per 1,000 births). After the imputation of missing values, the proportion of perinatal death remained relatively the same. The risk of perinatal death was significantly higher among deliveries from mothers who resided in rural compared to urban areas (RR = 1.241, 95%CI 1.137, 1.355), with primary education level (RR = 1.201, 95%CI 1.083, 1.332) compared to higher education level, with <4 compared to ≥4 antenatal care (ANC) visits (RR = 1.250, 95%CI 1.146, 1.365), with postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) (RR = 2.638, 95%CI 1.997, 3.486), abruption placenta (RR = 4.218, 95%CI 3.438, 5.175), delivered a low birth weight baby (LBW) (RR = 4.210, 95%CI 3.788, 4.679), male child (RR = 1.090, 95%CI 1.007, 1.181), and were referred for delivery (RR = 2.108, 95%CI 1.919, 2.317). On the other hand, deliveries from mothers who experienced premature rupture of the membranes (PROM) (RR = 0.411, 95%CI 0.283, 0.598) and delivered through cesarean section (CS) (RR = 0.662, 95%CI 0.604, 0.724) had a lower risk of perinatal death. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal mortality in this cohort is higher than the national estimate. Higher risk of perinatal death was associated with low maternal education level, rural residence, <4 ANC visits, PPH, abruption placenta, LBW delivery, child's sex, and being referred for delivery. Ignoring missing values in the analysis of adverse pregnancy outcomes produces biased covariate coefficients and standard errors. Close clinical follow-up of women at high risk of experiencing perinatal death, particularly during ANC visits and delivery, is of high importance to increase perinatal survival.

Prevalence and risk factors for caesarean delivery following labor induction at a tertiary hospital in North Tanzania: a retrospective cohort study (2000-2015).

BACKGROUND: Labor induction is among the common and widely practiced obstetric interventions aiming at achieving vaginal delivery. However, cesarean section (CS) delivery incidences have been reported following its use. This study aimed at determining the prevalence and risk factors for caesarean delivery following labor induction among women who gave birth at a tertiary hospital in north-Tanzania. METHODS: A hospital-based retrospective cohort study was designed using maternally-linked data from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) birth registry among women who gave birth to singleton babies from the year 2000 to 2015. All induced deliveries done in this period were studied. Women with multiple pregnancy, missing information on delivery mode and those with history of CS delivery were excluded. Relative risk and 95% Confidence Interval for risk factors for CS delivery following labor induction were estimated using log-binomial regression models. Robust variance estimation was used to account for repeated deliveries from the same subject. RESULTS: A total of 1088 deliveries were analysed. The prevalence of CS following labour induction was 26.75%. Independent risk factors for CS delivery were; primiparity (RR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.18-1.81), high birthweight (RR =1.28; 95% CI: 1.02-1.61), post-term pregnancy (RR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.09-1.93), and urban residence (RR =1.29; 95%CI: 1.05-1.58). CONCLUSION: In patients undergoing labor induction, primiparity, high birthweight, post dates and urban residence were found to associate with an elevated risk of caesarean delivery. Assessment of these factors prior to labor induction intervention is warranted to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with emergency caesarean delivery.

Incidence and recurrence risk of low birth weight in Northern Tanzania: A registry based study.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW) is an important indicator of newborn survival. It is associated with higher risk of morbidity, mortality and long-term health consequences. Little has been done on incidence and recurrence risk of LBW in developing countries including Tanzania. This study aimed to determine the incidence and recurrence risk of LBW among women who delivered at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center (KCMC), Tanzania. METHODS: A hospital-based prospective cohort study was conducted using maternally-linked data from KCMC birth registry between 2000 and 2010. A total of 26,191 women delivered singleton live babies during the study period. Of these, 4,603 (17.6%) had subsequent pregnancies. The recurrence risk of LBW was estimated using a multivariable log-binomial regression model. A robust variance estimator was used to account for correlation between births of the same mother. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW was 7.1%. The absolute recurrence risk of LBW was 28.1%. This corresponds to a relative risk (RR) of 5.08-fold, 95% CI 4.01-6.45). Antenatal care visits (<4) (RR: 5.00; 95% CI 3.58-6.98), preterm birth (RR: 4.55; 95% CI 3.21-6.43), positive HIV status (RR: 7.49: 95% CI 3.91-14.36) and preeclampsia (RR: 4.37; 2.60-7.35) in the first pregnancy were important predictors of LBW recurrence. CONCLUSION: The incidence of LBW and its recurrence was high in the study population. Women with previous history of LBW had higher risk of recurrent LBW in subsequent pregnancies. Identification of factors associated with LBW recurrence, proper post-partum care management to ensure Healthy Timing and Spacing of Pregnancy, Pre-conception care and close clinical follow-up during subsequent pregnancy may help reduce LBW recurrence.

Effect of interpregnancy interval on adverse pregnancy outcomes in northern Tanzania: a registry-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Both short and long interpregnancy intervals have been associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. There is limited information about the impact of interpregnancy interval on pregnancy (IPI) outcomes in Tanzania. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of IPI on adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using maternally-linked data from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) birth registry. A total of 17,030 singlet births from women who delivered singleton infant at KCMC from 2000 to 2010 were studied. Women with multi-fetal gestations and those who were referred from rural areas for various medical reasons were excluded. Outcome variables were preterm birth, low birth weight infants and perinatal death. A multiple logistic regression was used to assess the association between IPI and pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: The median IPI was 36 months. Compared with IPIs of 24-36 months (referent group), short interpregnancy intervals (<24 months) was associated with preterm delivery (OR 1 · 52; 95 % CI 1.31-1.74); low birth weight (OR 1 · 61; 95 % CI 1 · 34-1.72) and perinatal death, (OR 1 · 63; 95 % CI 1.22-1.91). The IPI of 37-59 months or longer were also associated with higher risks of preterm birth and low birth weight, but not with perinatal death. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that both short and long IPI are independent risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes. These finding emphasize the importance of providing support for family planning programs which will support optimal IPI and improve pregnancy outcomes.

Frequency, risk factors and feto-maternal outcomes of abruptio placentae in Northern Tanzania: a registry-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Abruptio placentae remains a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Little is known about the burden of abruptio placentae in Tanzania. This study aimed to determine frequency, risk factors for abruptio placentae and subsequent feto-maternal outcomes in women with abruptio placentae. METHODS: We designed a retrospective cohort study using maternally-linked data from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) medical birth registry. Data on all women who delivered live infants and stillbirths at 28 or more weeks of gestation at KCMC hospital from July 2000 to December 2010 (n = 39,993) were analysed. Multivariate logistic models were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors, and feto-maternal outcomes associated with abruptio placentae. RESULTS: The frequency of abruptio placentae was 0.3% (112/39,993). Risk factors for abruptio placentae were chronic hypertension (OR 4.1; 95% CI 1.3-12.8), preeclampsia/eclampsia (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.1), previous caesarean delivery (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.2-4.2), previous abruptio placentae (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.8-3.4), fewer antenatal care visits (OR 1.3; 95% 1.1-2.4) and high parity (OR 1.4; 95% CI 1.2-8.6). Maternal complications associated with abruptio placentae were antepartum haemorrhage (OR 11.5; 95% CI 6.3-21.2), postpartum haemorrhage (OR 17.9; 95% 8.8-36.4),), caesarean delivery (OR 5.6; 95% CI 3.6-8.8), need for blood transfusions (OR 9.6; 95% CI 6.5-14.1), altered liver function (OR 5.3; 95% CI 1.3-21.6) and maternal death (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.5-1.8). In addition, women with abruptio placentae had prolonged duration of hospital stay (more than 4 days) and were more likely to have been referred during labour. Adverse fetal outcomes associated with abruptio placentae include low birth weight (OR 5.9; 95% CI 3.9-8.7), perinatal death (OR 17.6; 95% CI 11.3-27.3) and low Apgar score (below 7) at 1 and 5 min. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of abruptio placentae is comparable with local and international studies. Chronic hypertension, preeclampsia, prior caesarean section delivery, prior abruptio placentae, poor attendance to antenatal care and high parity were independently associated with abruptio placentae. Abruptio placentae was associated with adverse maternal and foetal outcomes. Clinicians should identify risk factors for abruptio placentae during prenatal care when managing pregnant women to prevent adverse maternal and foetal outcomes.

IL-10, IL-15, IL-17, and GMCSF levels in cervical cancer tissue of Tanzanian women infected with HPV16/18 vs. non-HPV16/18 genotypes.

BACKGROUND: Despite comparable screening rates for precancerous lesions, higher incidence and mortality related to cervical cancer in minority women persists. Recent evidence suggests that minority women with precancerous cervical lesions harbor a wider range of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes, many of these distinct from HPV16/18, those most commonly found in Caucasian women. The goal of the analysis was to determine if inflammatory cytokines and chemokines varied by HPV 16/18 versus other genotypes in cervical cancer tissues from Tanzanian women. METHODS: HPV genotypes and concentrations of chemokines and cytokines were measured from homogenized fresh tumor tissue of thirty-one women with invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Risk factors for cervical cancer including age, parity, hormonal contraceptive use and cigarette smoking were obtained by questionnaire. Generalized linear models were used to evaluate differences between chemokines/cytokine levels in women infected with HPV16/18 and those infected with other HPV genotypes. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, parity and hormonal contraceptives, IL-17 was found significantly more frequently in invasive cervical cancer samples of women infected with HPV16/18 compared to women infected with other HPV genotypes (p = 0.033). In contrast, higher levels for granular macrophage colony-stimulating factor (p = 0.004), IL-10 (p = 0.037), and IL-15 (p = 0.041) were found in ICC tissues of women infected with genotypes other than HPV16/18 when compared to those of women infected with HPV16/18. CONCLUSIONS: While the small sample size limits inference, our data suggest that infection with different HPV genotypes is associated with distinct pro-inflammatory cytokine expression profiles; whether this explains some of the racial differences observed in cervical cancer is still unclear. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Sexual behaviour, contraceptive knowledge and use among female undergraduates' students of Muhimbili and Dar es Salaam Universities, Tanzania: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The rate of premarital sexual activity, unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions remain higher among university students. This calls for understanding the knowledge on contraceptive use and sexual behaviours among this high risk group if the incidence of unintended pregnancy, illegal abortions and high sexual risky behaviour are to be minimized. This study aimed to assess ssexual behaviour, contraceptive knowledge and use among female undergraduates' students of Muhimbili and Dar es Salaam Universities in Tanzania. METHODS: A cross-sectional analytic study was conducted among undergraduate female students in the two Universities located in Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania. The study period was from June 2013 to October 2013. A self-administered questionnaire was given to 281 students. Of these, 253 were retrieved, giving a response rate of 90%. Data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) for Windows version 17.0. Descriptive statistics were summarized. The chi square test was used to examine relationship between various sociodemographic and sexual behaviours variables with contraceptive use. A P-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Results showed that majority (70.4%) of the students have had sexual intercourse. All participants had knowledge of contraception. More than half, 148 (58.5%) of sexually active women reported ever used contraception before while 105 (41.5%) were current contraceptive users. Majority (74.7%) of the sexually active group started sexual activity at young age (19-24 years). Condom, 221(24.3%) and pills, 153 (16.8%) were the known contraceptive methods. The most popular method of contraception used were condoms, withdrawal and periodic abstinence. The main sources of information about contraception were from friends, radio and school (39.5%, 36% and 24%) respectively. Forty (15.8%) women had pregnancies. Of these, 11 (27%) have had unwanted pregnancies among which 54.6% have had induced abortion. Marital status, age at first sex, ever had sex, ever been pregnant and unwanted pregnancies were associated with use of contraception. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the student's had knowledge of contraception. However, rate of contraception use is still low. Majority of the respondent were sexually active, with the majority started sexual activity at young age. This needs advocacy for adolescence reproductive health education to promote the use of the available contraceptive services amongst university students.

Recurrence of preeclampsia in northern Tanzania: a registry-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Preeclampsia occurs in about 4 per cent of pregnancies worldwide, and may have particularly serious consequences for women in Africa. Studies in western countries have shown that women with preeclampsia in one pregnancy have a substantially increased risk of preeclampsia in subsequent pregnancies. We estimate the recurrence risks of preeclampsia in data from Northern Tanzania. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was designed using 19,811 women who delivered singleton infants at a hospital in Northern Tanzania between 2000 and 2008. A total of 3,909 women were recorded with subsequent deliveries in the hospital with follow up through 2010. Adjusted recurrence risks of preeclampsia were computed using regression models. RESULTS: The absolute recurrence risk of preeclampsia was 25%, which was 9.2-fold (95% CI: 6.4 - 13.2) compared with the risk for women without prior preeclampsia. When there were signs that the preeclampsia in a previous pregnancy had been serious either because the baby was delivered preterm or had died in the perinatal period, the recurrence risk of preeclampsia was even higher. Women who had preeclampsia had increased risk of a series of adverse pregnancy outcomes in future pregnancies. These include perinatal death (RR= 4.3), a baby with low birth weight (RR= 3.5), or a preterm birth (RR= 2.5). These risks were only partly explained by recurrence of preeclampsia. CONCLUSIONS: Preeclampsia in one pregnancy is a strong predictor for preeclampsia and other adverse pregnancy outcomes in subsequent pregnancies in Tanzania. Women with previous preeclampsia may benefit from close follow-up during their pregnancies.

Recurrence of perinatal death in Northern Tanzania: a registry based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Perinatal mortality is known to be high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some women may carry a particularly high risk which would be reflected in a high recurrence risk. We aim to estimate the recurrence risk of perinatal death using data from a hospital in Northern Tanzania. METHODS: We constructed a cohort study using data from the hospital based KCMC Medical Birth Registry. Women who delivered a singleton for the first time at the hospital between 2000 and 2008 were followed in the registry for subsequent deliveries up to 2010 and 3,909 women were identified with at least one more delivery within the follow-up period. Recurrence risk of perinatal death was estimated in multivariate models analysis while adjusting for confounders and accounting for correlation between births from the same mother. RESULTS: The recurrence risk of perinatal death for women who had lost a previous baby was 9.1%. This amounted to a relative risk of 3.2 (95% CI: 2.2 - 4.7) compared to the much lower risk of 2.8% for women who had had a surviving baby. Recurrence contributed 21.2% (31/146) of perinatal deaths in subsequent pregnancies. Preeclampsia, placental abruption, placenta previa, induced labor, preterm delivery and low birth weight in a previous delivery with a surviving baby were also associated with increased perinatal mortality in the next pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Some women in Tanzanian who suffer a perinatal loss in one pregnancy are at a particularly high risk of also losing the baby of a subsequent pregnancy. Strategies of perinatal death prevention that target pregnant women who are particularly vulnerable or already have experienced a perinatal loss should be considered in future research.

Recurrence of preterm birth and perinatal mortality in northern Tanzania: registry-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the recurrence risk of preterm delivery and estimate the perinatal mortality in repeated preterm deliveries. METHODS: Prospective study in Tanzania of 18 176 women who delivered a singleton between 2000 and 2008 at KCMC hospital. The women were followed up to 2010 for consecutive births. A total of 3359 women were identified with a total of 3867 subsequent deliveries in the follow-up period. Recurrence risk of preterm birth and perinatal mortality was estimated using log-binomial regression and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: For women with a previous preterm birth, the risk of preterm birth in a subsequent pregnancy was 17%. This recurrence risk was estimated to be 2.7-fold (95% CI: 2.1-3.4) of the risk of women with a previous term birth. The perinatal mortality of babies in a second preterm birth of the same woman was 15%. Babies born at term who had an older sibling that was born preterm had a perinatal mortality of 10%. Babies born at term who had an older sibling who was also born at term had a perinatal mortality of 1.7%. CONCLUSION: Previous delivery of a preterm infant is a strong predictor of future preterm births in Tanzania. Previous or repeated preterm births increase the risk of perinatal death substantially in the subsequent pregnancy.

Associations between methylation of paternally expressed gene 3 (PEG3), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and invasive cervical cancer.

Cytology-based screening for invasive cervical cancer (ICC) lacks sensitivity and specificity to discriminate between cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) likely to persist or progress from cases likely to resolve. Genome-wide approaches have been used to identify DNA methylation marks associated with CIN persistence or progression. However, associations between DNA methylation marks and CIN or ICC remain weak and inconsistent. Between 2008-2009, we conducted a hospital-based, case-control study among 213 Tanzania women with CIN 1/2/3 or ICC. We collected questionnaire data, biopsies, peripheral blood, cervical scrapes, Human papillomavirus (HPV) and HIV-1 infection status. We assessed PEG3 methylation status by bisulfite pyrosequencing. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI 95%) for associations between PEG3 methylation status and CIN or ICC. After adjusting for age, gravidity, hormonal contraceptive use and HPV infection, a 5% increase in PEG3 DNA methylation was associated with increased risk for ICC (OR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.1). HPV infection was associated with a higher risk of CIN1-3 (OR = 15.7; 95% CI 5.7-48.6) and ICC (OR = 29.5, 95% CI 6.3-38.4). Infection with high risk HPV was correlated with mean PEG3 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) methylation (r = 0.34 p<0.0001), while the correlation with low risk HPV infection was weaker (r = 0.16 p = 0.047). Although small sample size limits inference, these data support that PEG3 methylation status has potential as a molecular target for inclusion in CIN screening to improve prediction of progression. Impact statement: We present the first evidence that aberrant methylation of the PEG3 DMR is an important co-factor in the development of Invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC), especially among women infected with high risk HPV. Our results show that a five percent increase in DNA methylation of PEG3 is associated with a 1.6-fold increase ICC risk. Suggesting PEG3 methylation status may be useful as a molecular marker for CIN screening to improve prediction of cases likely to progress.

Distribution of HPV genotypes in cervical intraepithelial lesions and cervical cancer in Tanzanian women.

BACKGROUND: Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated with uterine cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and invasive cancers (ICC). Approximately 80% of ICC cases are diagnosed in under-developed countries. Vaccine development relies on knowledge of HPV genotypes characteristic of LSIL, HSIL and cancer; however, these genotypes remain poorly characterized in many African countries. To contribute to the characterization of HPV genotypes in Northeastern Tanzania, we recruited 215 women from the Reproductive Health Clinic at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre. Cervical scrapes and biopsies were obtained for cytology and HPV DNA detection. RESULTS: 79 out of 215 (36.7%) enrolled participants tested positive for HPV DNA, with a large proportion being multiple infections (74%). The prevalence of HPV infection increased with lesion grade (14% in controls, 67% in CIN1 cases and 88% in CIN2-3). Among ICC cases, 89% had detectable HPV. Overall, 31 HPV genotypes were detected; the three most common HPV genotypes among ICC were HPV16, 35 and 45. In addition to these genotypes, co-infection with HPV18, 31, 33, 52, 58, 68 and 82 was found in 91% of ICC. Among women with CIN2-3, HPV53, 58 and 84/83 were the most common. HPV35, 45, 53/58/59 were the most common among CIN1 cases. CONCLUSIONS: In women with no evidence of cytological abnormalities, the most prevalent genotypes were HPV58 with HPV16, 35, 52, 66 and 73 occurring equally. Although numerical constraints limit inference, findings that 91% of ICC harbor only a small number of HPV genotypes suggests that prevention efforts including vaccine development or adjuvant screening should focus on these genotypes.

Management of the placenta in advanced abdominal pregnancies at an East african tertiary referral center.

OBJECTIVE: To review the diagnosis and treatment of 9 advanced abdominal pregnancies in a low-resource setting of a developing country, focusing on the management of the placenta. METHODS: Abdominal pregnancies occurring between 1999 and 2007 were identified from hospital records in Tanzania. All patients were followed up for a median of 6 months after surgery (range 5-9 months). RESULTS: At the time of diagnosis, pregnancies were between 20 and 42 weeks of gestation (median 27 weeks). All 9 mothers survived the abdominal pregnancy, and 7 fetuses died before delivery. The placenta was left completely in situ in 5 of the nine cases. CONCLUSIONS: Abdominal pregnancy is often detected rather late in low-resource settings compared with higher-resource settings. We suggest that in the described low-resource setting where red blood cell transfusions are not always readily available, the placenta may be left in situ after removal of the fetus.